$530 Billion Over Ten Years - How The End Of Border-less Travel Threatens Europe's Economy

Tyler Durden's picture

As a result of incorporating the Schengen Agreement (initially signed in 1985 between just five countries) into the Treaty of Amsterdam (signed in 1997, effective in 1999), Europeans and European businesses enjoy border-less travel in most countries that are part of the European Union. 


Or, at least they did.

In an effort to slow Syrian, Afghan, and Iraqi migrants traveling to Europe, many countries are now implementing border controls, a decision that could prove to have significant negative consequences for Europe's economy.

As Bloomberg notes, the open border economy supports more than 400 million people, with 24 million business trips, and 57 million cross-border freight transfers happening every single year. Research by the Bertelsmann Foundation asserts that a permanent return to border controls could cost $530 billion of GDP growth from the European economy over the next decade.


The complexity introduced by creating a bottleneck at the border is what drives the above number. People have gotten used to living in one country and commuting to another for work, and companies have built their business models around having multiple plants in different countries, and using just-in-time supply chain arrangements that require cross border travel on a daily basis. Delays caused by the new checkpoints and stricter travel requirements have real costs for businesses and individuals alike.

Bloomberg has more on this dynamic.

Firms in Germany’s industrial heartland rely on elaborate, just-in-time supply chains that take advantage of lower costs in Hungary and Poland. French supermarket chains are supplied with fresh produce that speeds north from Spain and Portugal. And trans-national commutes have become commonplace since Europeans can easily choose to, say, live in Belgium and work in France.


Permanent controls would destroy the business model of German industry, says Rainer Hundsdoerfer, chairman of EBM-Papst.


"You get the products you need for assembly here in Germany just in time," he said by phone. "That’s why the trucks go nonstop. They come here, they unload, they load, and off they go. The cost isn’t the only prime issue” in reinstating border checks. “It’s that we couldn’t even do it."


Nor could anyone else, he adds: "Nothing in German industry, regardless of whether it’s automotives or appliances or ventilators, could exist without the extended workbenches in eastern Europe." Based in Mulfingen in central Germany, Hundsdoerfer’s company has been making electric motors and fans since it was founded in 1963, and has factories in countries including Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.


German auto-parts manufacturer Continental AG, for instance, has 15 to 20 trucks running across Europe on a typical day. Their longest trips take about 1 1/2 to 2 days and cross multiple borders. If full customs and immigration checks were restored, leading to average waits of four hours at each frontier, that could mean another 160 hours of extra journey time a day across 20 trucks, said supply-chain head Juergen Braunstetter: "Over a year, you can imagine the cost.”

Here is the area that the Schengen Agreement covers, and the member states that participate.


Still - as long as Turkey is happy, it should all work out fine. And besides, George Soros has the final solution for all this - increase taxes, borrow more, or face European extinction.

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fredquimby's picture

Yeah, we got stuck last week just past the border going from Germany into France just South of Strasbourg. The French cops had a road-block setup and caused us to sit and wait for over an hour just so they could eyeball everyone going by them. Just what you need when you have a 9 hour drive ahead of you.

My mate also just got his van totaled in Belgium by the striking truckers. They had a road-block setup and he ran it. They baseball-batted the van and he even had one of the fucks clinging on the hood of the van as he drove off. He didn't hang on for long though haha and he didn't even tell them they are gonna be out of work quicker than you can say "3 automated truck rigs just left Frankfurt in a road-train convoy"

Supernova Born's picture

Though the cost of uncontrolled immigration is minimal.


Haus-Targaryen's picture

I would be completely fine waiting to cross borders and having to show my passport at train stations if;

1) It stopped the flow of illegeals into Germany
2) It stopped the flow of cash out of Germany
3) It restored nation-state sovereignty.  

Everything else is secondary. 

Build a political and economic union among cultural and economic peers.  Not among a group of countries because they are roughly close to one another. 

BorisTheBlade's picture

German industrialists should boot Merkel and Brussels for fucking up their just-in-time supply chains.

Supernova Born's picture

Mixing unlimited amounts of uneducated third worlders into first world societies and expecting to maintain the first world is a fiction.

The author and "peddler" of the fiction is fiat.

XuscitizenSweden's picture

I've got only 2-words how to solve the invasion....



If not.....


"Ready....Aim....Fire"; that's for the non-elected EU-Coudenhove-Kalgeri & Oded Yinon Planners- Rothschild Zionazis.

The local politicians get the rope.

Best to Save the Pb for the jihaddis.

indygo55's picture

This seems stupid to me. We have amazing RF technology. Why can't they set up tool booth structures and channel all commercial traffic to flow through RF readers and anyone with an apporved RF card and stop all the others. We do better here in the states with farm animals flowing through reader stations.



DownWithYogaPants's picture

Because an RFID reader can't tell who is in the truck. How about that?

Stuck on Zero's picture

I think those trucks carrying just-in-time merchandise are full of immigrants.

hansg's picture

They say closing the borders costs one gazillion euros. So by that same token, having the borders opened ten years ago started a golden age in which all of a sudden Europe was making one gazillion euros as well. Oh wait, that's not true... Well, then I guess that cost is also bullshit. It's just numbers pulled from thin air by desperate politicians, not worth the paper they are written on. Next.

Cloud9.5's picture

In  the melting pot, you get melted and you lose your identity. Schadenfreude anyone?


Freddie's picture

Boot Merkel and Brussels EU-SSR criminals?  More like guilotine them all.  Criminal traitors.

Frankie Carbone's picture

The elites always sell their poison as something that tastes delicious. 

Sandmann's picture

It isn't about showing a passport you can buy for €300 from a Lithuanian forger or in Athens or Istanbul from a stolen one re-cut. Passports are not the key issue, it is Racial Profiling that the Elites will not allow and which is the ONLY way to control access. Israel does it because it works

Sandmann's picture

The GDR had longer waits going into West Berlin - used to push the cars as they looked on from the machine gun nests in the watch towers.

doctor10's picture

Ya. The cost of freedom from the schemers in Brussels.
Who'da thunk?

DetectiveStern's picture

Fuck the EU. Hopefully me & my fellow Brits will vote us out of this neo-fascist bullshit.

XuscitizenSweden's picture

I'm rootin' for you bloody Britts!!!

Cheerio, Pipp-Pipp & that Sort of Rot.

When it's over, don't forget to draw & hindquarter the perps at The Tower.

;) X-

DetectiveStern's picture

The royals are next. Theyll be the first in the tower for their crimes against the public.

Freddie's picture

Dave Cameron who's non-goy side of the family has been financing wars for the red shield for 250 + years.  It even says it in his wiki. 

bimbam's picture

Alternatively, what would be the estimated costs of an influx of a disruptive number of economic migrants? What would be the immaterial costs of unsafe cities, of group rapists attacking our women and children, of terrorist attacks? Don't mean to sound too xenophobic or politically incorrect though. I imagine a future where my children can grow up without being afraid and in peace. Just like everybody else. 

Vegetius's picture

Borderless Europe is dead or dying. The total impact of the migrant wave into Europe will become clear in the next 5 years. We can look forward to high rates of sexual attacks, lowering education standards, a collapse in the social contract and the eventual breakup of the EU.

Well done Merkel and the Eurotrash

moneylover3's picture

Next USA,Cadana,Aus & NZ will collapse

Only Japan,Russia & China will survive the onslaught of muzzies

Bring on the battle. F*uck Yeah

Nexus789's picture

Canada and Australia will collapse due to the amount of debt and property bubbles.

Crash N. Burn's picture

 Not just in Europe, Canada's banksters' whore PM is doing the same thing:

COVER UP: Parents, student CONFIRM refugee children choke, slap Canadian kids


 Would post a link to the actual story but it was removed - fuckin' presstitutes.

Freddie's picture

Happening in Amerika too.

moleson1965's picture

Give me a break! The social welfare to be spent on millions of unqualified migrants from the ME and Africa who will never be able to get a job and who will never really want to integrate into a competitive Western society that requires discipline goes already in the dozens if not already hundreds of billions every year. Most of those migrants (who are not refugees from war zones!) see the European social welfare states as an attractive "business model", hence why they choose the most generous countries such as Germany, Sweden or Switzerland (which is not a EU member but has a very high inflow of migrants from Africa). They get housing, health-care, legal assistance etc. for free (also tax free) and have money left at the end of the month to send an annual salary (in local terms) back home every month! Once they can get their family over (by plane, paid by the social welfare state...) they get even more money per month (the more Children the bigger the BMW!), in many cases more than a decently qualified "indigenous" father with a decently paid job. And please consider this: In a hot housing market with not enough "product" available as in Germany or Switzerland, the illegal migrants have the better credit rating than any native German or Swiss, as they have the Government as their guarantor who can pay higher prices for "affordable" apartments. In addition, many of those migrants from the ME and Africa excel in one thing: crime. This costs billions on top. And please do not forget all the additional, unproductive bureaucratic capacity that needs to be built up and maintained to "entertain" those migrants who do not speak the local language... It is going to be inevitable that taxes will have to be raised (with all economic cost related to this). Now, please, make a complete full-cost analysis and you will find out that the cost of border controls is much lower than the cost burden on European societies for years / generations created by such illegal immigration from the ME and Africa. - If this continues then there will be riots in Europe. 

Sandmann's picture

As Angela Merkel put it in 2012

“If Europe today accounts for just over 7 per cent of the world’s population, produces around 25 per cent of global GDP and has to finance 50 per cent of global social spending, then it’s obvious that it will have to work very hard to maintain its prosperity and way of life,” Ms Merkel said in the interview.

“All of us have to stop spending more than we earn every year.”


Supernova Born's picture

Merkel is a low-grade moron.

She is at best a lunch lady at a short bus elementary school.

Sandmann's picture

She is advised by Gerald Knaus who is a Soros bagman and by Peter Altmaier who has been on paid leave from the EU Commission since 1994. Merkel has now brought Springer Verlag and State TV Channel ZDF into the frame against her and Bilderbergers meet in Dresden 9-12 June to write her obituary

BarkingCat's picture

Her action are certainly moronic but she is not.

She is either blackmailed or has a brain tumor.

It was only a few years ago that she voiced an opinion 180 degrees different from her current policy.

No matter the reason, Germans should still string her up from the nearest tree.

JammersMills's picture

You have written a very detailed and long comment which fails quote any facts. 

Having lived in Switzerland for over six years, I failed to noticed a large population of African Migrants driving around in BMWs (unfortunately this is not a fact but an emperical observation).  I also know that the Swiss Health Care System is not free - private health insurance is compulsory for all persons residing in Switzerland within three months of taking up residence or being born in the country (1,2,3). As for Africans integrating into western society, I think you'll find that the overwhelming majority are able to integrate perfectly fine. Just look to the annual Afro Pfingsten festival in Switzerland (4). As for African and ME exceling only in crime? I don't really need to explain why that comment is incorrect...  

I am very curious to find out how you propose one does a full-cost analysis. Maybe you should consider factoring in the cost of colonization that has burden for generations of Africans (for example, read what King Leopold II did (5) - it will shock you). Maybe one should also analyze the cause of these war torn regions. Finally, we should also look at the economic benifit migrants have provided Europe. 


1.  "Requirement to take out insurance, "Frequently Asked Questions" (FAQ)" (PDF). Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA. 2012-01-08. Retrieved 2013-11-21.

2. "Requirement to take out insurance: Persons residing in Switzerland". Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA. 2012-01-08. Retrieved 2013-11-21.

3. "The compulsory health insurance in Switzerland: Your questions, our answers" (PDF). Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA. 2012-12-21. Retrieved 2013-11-21.

4. http://www.afro-pfingsten.ch/ 

5. https://www.amazon.co.uk/King-Leopolds-Ghost-Heroism-Colonial/dp/1447211...

maltafathead's picture

To Mr JammersMills, - while one or two of your points are valid, you do the usual attempt to equate asylum seekers and 'refugees' as well as the genuine refugees with 'migrants'. This negates your post overall as you are simply using the game of asserting certain vocabulary again and again instead of facts.

Real migrants are accepted by their destination countries after meeting specific conditions. They must have authentic ID, they must prove they do not have a criminal record, they must prove they do not have infectious diseases.

They must have skills, they must be capable of supporting themselves and their families by using these skills in paid employment, they must be the kinds of people who will be able to find paid employment - if not as soon as they enter the country, within a reasonable timeframe. They are given visas because of the assumption that they will not be a burden on the country they migrate to.

And ABOVE ALL, migrants actually PAY to have their visas processed and THEY PAY for the privilege of being accepted into the host country.

Now take your fantasised moral high ground, buddy, and apply the cases of these asylum seekers, 'refugees' and refugees to the conditions I explained above. They are not a figment of my imagination - they are the actual facts that make somebody a migrant.

Regardless of whether they are black Africans, Moroccans, Tunisians, Algerians, Aghanis, Iraquis, Iranians, Syrians, Pakistanis, Yemenis etc etc, the categories I referred to contribute not one euro or whatever currency to the countries they enter, nor do they go through legal channels to apply for visas,  nor do they enter legally into Europe and other western countries much of the time.

Many have provenly destroyed what ID they have and so it is impossible to check their backgrounds and the likely criminal activity some of them have engaged in. Funny how none of the men have never picked up a gun supposedly although militias are usual in those countries.

Most of them will never pay tax, will not be able to work and so contribute to the host countries unless the jobs are specially reserved for them and are paid by taxpayer transfers.

Many of them see absolutely nothing wrong with their burdening western countries with whom they have no ethnic, cultural, traditionally historical and usually no religious ties. They are content to have large families because they do not pay - again the host countries' taxpayes are on the hook for their 4 and more children.

They are a massive burden because their non contribution usually runs down through generation after generation. Very few will ever start successful businesses without the usual public money funding it.

The 'refugee success stories' in countries like Australia and Canada always begin with others' money taken by govt and given to them, and usually ends with still being subsidised by the taxpayers in one way or another.

Oh and don't start on the whole what King Leopold etc did. The massive damage inflicted by alien Muslim cultures in Europe such as in Spain, and later Serbia and other parts of what we know generally as Eastern Europe never resulted in Turkey or any other Muslim country paying reparations for the wealth stolen and people enslaved.

You can't have it both ways. You want to cry about colonialism, then you have to understand it started much earlier than with European people. Like the slave trade in Africa, started by Arabs.

The people you say have the right to enter illegally and live off the populations of western countries are not migrants.

They are illegal entrants for the most and unfortunately they are for the most a parasitical, non productive presence who also implicitly and explicitly threaten the host populations with dysfunction and violence if they can't have the lifestyles of the west that were accomplished through western cultural norms.

Yep buddy, replies to you are long because you need some facts to enter that irrational head of yours.


Urban Redneck's picture

What you wrote appeals to the low IQ ignoratti and demonstrates basic ignorance of Switzerland.

Switzerland is neither a member of the European Union nor a member of the Eurozone.

No refugee in Switzerland is destroying their ID cards.

Before commenting on the distinction between asylum seekers and refugees in your mind and based on an apparently exceptionally dumbed down translation, you might want to brush up on the actual data and debate in the local languages.


Dr. Bonzo's picture

Switzerland is neither a member of the European Union nor a member of the Eurozone.

Switzerland is a signatory of the Shengen Agreement you witless belligerent fucking mouthy cunt. That renders the rest of your fuktarded diatribe moot.

Do us all a favor and return to you fucking cell and take your meds like the good doctor ordered.

Urban Redneck's picture

How does it feel to have to look up to Trayvon Martin as your moral and intellectual superior?

The Schengen treaty doesn't render anything moot, moreover the treaty doesn't grant anyone seeking asylum in Switzerland refugee status.

If even had the intellectual capacity of a lowly Eritrean nigger then you could probably explain how the Swiss Immigration procedures DIFFER from the most popular EU destinations (e.g. Germany and Sweeden).

What your dumb little cock sucking Neo Nazi brain can't seem to grasp is that there are substantial differences, and what you are wining for EU to do is largely to become more like Switzerland.

maltafathead's picture

Ah, the 'cutting' Trayvon reference. Actually the unlucky sizzurp slurping, gang sign flashing well built and tall young man whose photos in the media were replaced by those of him as a 10 year old looks like an intellectual heavyweight compared to you.

And the 'nigger' references are getting very old - already. How you think that bolsters your argument is anybody's guess. You're all over the shop, next we'll be seeing photos of you appearing in drag in your next posts. And quit the meth.

Urban Redneck's picture

No, I'm not all over the place. I see TWO NIGGERS talking smack who can't even explain the basic differences between Swiss and EU policies, trying to cover their getting called out on their ignorant nigger bullshit.

So for the umpteenth time - explain the similarities and differences between Swiss immigration procedures and immigration procedures in Germany & Sweden.

maltafathead's picture

You've been answered well enough buddy. Fuck off back to the dunes. No more answers.

Urban Redneck's picture

You have not provided any answers, because your ignorant ass has proven to be full of bullshit.

Now what are the distinctions between the immigration frameworks in Switzerland, Germany, and Sweden?

maltafathead's picture

Please, your slippery little ways are very obvious. "No refugee in Switzerland is destroying their ID cards" - no shit, Sherlock? This is the best you can do. Most of the 'refugees' who entered western countries by various means, most of which were essentially illegal, already destroyed their passports and ID cards.

This is part of the problem. This is why those who are called 'asylum seekers', that wonderful fantasy 'migrants' (real migrants have visas remember that they paid for) amd most of them called 'refugees' by a compliant media and 'political representatives' could get to enter and live in a western country such as Switzerland and the others in the first place.

Are you really so proud of your stupidity? Is that why you post your garbage here? Or are you just another troll appearing because your side is flailing around and losing badly in trying to convince the rest of us that this enormous drain on our countries and the social engineering that is behind it, is just an illusion?

Either way you're a joke. And just to make it clear for you - members of the gimme masses who want free shit but have no visas that were already paid for and approved for entry as migrants to the countries they washed up in CAN NEVER BE MIGRANTS.

If you believe that most of them are genuine refugees with no other choices, who fled to the first safe country and will go back when the situation improves then you need to post a photo of the damage all that meth has already done to what may have been a brain inside your fucked up head once.

Urban Redneck's picture

Nigger. I was writing about their SWISS ID cards issued when their asylum application was originally processed.

As to the language - in both German and French as used in Switzerland, a refugee is someone seeking asylum under the Asylum Act of 1998. Migrants is a broader term including asylum seekers, job seekers, and family reunification seekers (which includes spouses and dependents of those with work/residence permits obtained by their Swiss employers). So take your narrow minded 'Murican Exceptionalist English and shove it where the sun don't shine.

I have made NO ASSERTIONS as to whether a majority of asylum seekers are "genuine refugees" - so don't try and change the subject.

maltafathead's picture

Yes, yes - 'Migrant' is being used as a broader term and has for a while. It's all part of the problem. Changing definitions to suit political agendas. The 'independent Swiss' play that game too courtesy of their ruling class.

We see it all the time buddy. 'Democracy' is a word used freely for a start. The fact that it is not what happens in reality is par for the course. Just words and slogans to distort meaning and disseminate a meme. Trolls on meth like yourself obviously have no problem with that.

Now please go down a steep ski run sans equipment.

Urban Redneck's picture

That's not a changing or arbitrary definition, it is codified in Statute. It's the discourse of the untermenschen of the lumpenproletariat and their MSM brainwashers that oscillates.

Dr. Bonzo's picture

You have written a very detailed and long comment which fails quote any facts.

FUCK your pedantic bullshit. The facts are so-widely known this isn’t even hard. A 10-minute cut and paste exercise delivers these unpleasant economic facts:

An estimated 40% of Muslim youth in France and 50% in Germany are unemployed but far from destitute. Rather, they receive a wide range of social benefits.

In Sweden, perhaps the most acute case, immigrants are estimated at 1.5 million out of 10 million people; immigration is estimated to cost almost $14 billion per year.


UK: London’s unemployment statistics highest amongst Muslims


In general the top five immigrant groups ranked by benefits dependency in ex-Great Britain are Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Turks, Somalis and Persians: all Muslims. And of the total number of Muslim immigrants living in Britain, more than 50% are economically inactive. Recent 2012 reports claim this number to have escalated to almost 85%. In 2012 75% of all Muslim women and 50% of all Muslim men were unemployed. And that is not the entire picture.


Professor Hassan also makes the points in his report that the rate of poverty amongst Muslim children is 40% versus 20% for the general population (albeit a very subjective measure) and the rate of prison incarceration is significantly higher for Muslim populations in European countries, citing the U.K. and France (where Muslims number 8% of the country but 50% of the prison population).


Denmark ‘astonished’ at 1,000% Muslim Somali majority crime numbers

Sweden: A 5% Muslim population commit 77.6% of all rapes in Sweden

When it comes to more serious crimes, such as murder, manslaughter and assault on strangers, immigrants are overrepresented by 400 – 500 percent. For rape the number is 450 percent.


Rotterdam: Immigrant groups overrepresented in crime


Immigrants in EU transfer €28bn to their country of origin


In sum: fuck your bullshit. The alleged "benefits" of importing these third world degenerates have been outstripped by the costs by far. This entire social experiment has been the largest catastrophe to befall Europe since the Second World War. BUT... the muslim parallel societies that are growing inside Europe and disrupting the normal economic balance are just the symptom. The disease is the ideology of multiculturalism and the banal thinking that all cultures are equal and everyone who promotes this horseshit. IF all cultures are equal why are all their countries economic and political basket cases. No wait. I know why. Whitey did it. Riiiiiight. FUCK YOU. Their cultures have failed ever since the dawn of the modern era, long after the European colonial legacy has waned. Instead of developing highly functioning advanced economies, most of these cultures have wallowed in internal warfare, tribalism, and religious zealotry. As if a cause for their miserable circumstances can't be readily identified within this complex mesh of abject failure. To suggest we import en masse entire peoples from failed cultures, as if people were widgets, is the height of folly. OF COURSE they carry their cultural baggage with them. Racial hatred, tribalism, sexism, medieval belief systems and an absolutist religion just as Europe becomes more secular. MOST egregiously these fucking medievalists missed out on the socialisation into the modern era. They are descended from generations of goat herders. Are you fucking kidding? The contempt you have for the social processes that underly a modern society and make it work is simply staggering.

YOU'RE the one who refuses to see the facts for what they are that makes YOU part of the problem as far as I'm concerned.

When the Big Reset comes, people who supported cultural suicide for the sake of misguided "feelings" at the cost of European welfare will be dealt with harshly. Wake the FUCK up.

maltafathead's picture

Fantastic post. I am sure Mr JammersMills is one of those 'migrants' or comes from one of those 'migrant families' who supposedly 'migrated' to Europe or the UK or wherever by actually NOT PAYING for a visa and hence not really migrating.

I have met good people who are genuine refugees and they were shitting themselves at the thought of ever returning to their former hellholes on their new passports. It is instructive that many of the 'refugees' return home for a trip after they get their shiny new passport from their host western country.

Those real refugees were persecuted minorities - following traditional spiritual practises or Christianity. Their people were enslaved by Arabised, Islamicised people. They cannot believe how so many of the persecutors from their country and others are running into our countries claiming 'asylum'.

Strelnikov's picture

Not necessarily.  Jammermills is merely parrotignthe European and, indeed, th einternational, Left stance:  Everything is the West's fault, including the current invasion, and must be handled with that in mind.   Nothing matters, not your nation, your family or your person, only the collective guilt.

Site's picture

Excellent post, would upvote 1000 times if I could