Europe's Inevitable Intervention In Libya Will Add 1.3 Million Barrels To The World Oil Glut

Tyler Durden's picture


Europe is planning on recolonizing Libya, and so it will send in armed forces in the coming months to restore order and stem the flow of migrants coming from Africa. If this expedition army succeeds in securing parts of the country and restoring law and order, Italian and German engineers from ENI and Wintershall will follow suit to help resume the country’s oil production, which will add 1.3 million barrels per day (Libya produced 1.7 million barrels per day before Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011) to the world oil glut.

Until a couple of weeks ago Libya was governed by three governments:

  1. The original government just after the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi, formed by the Muslim Brotherhood residing in Tripoli, the Libyan capital.
  2. The internationally recognized (except for Turkey and Qatar) government in Tobruk. This government, created with the help of the European Union, which organized mock elections, was subsequently driven out of Tripoli;
  3. A kind of ISIS-run government controlling the area around Benghazi.

The real power of any of these groups does not seem to extend beyond the immediate neighbourhood of their residency; it is the chieftains of particular local tribes that de facto rule the rest of the area.

For a year, the Europeans have been trying in vain to create a unity government. In the meantime, the security situation is increasingly deteriorating. Libya has become a sanctuary for ISIS and other Jihadist groups and a transit country for millions of Africans that want to migrate to Europe. French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in March that some 800,000 migrants are in Libya hoping to cross the Mediterranean this year).

The only way to prevent this from happening outside their jurisdiction i.e. neither on European soil nor using European law enforcement, is for the Europeans to regain control over the old Italian colony. It is no option for the Europeans to wait for the Libyans until they sort out their internal problems. For Europeans to be able to send in an expedition army, they need an official request from the Libyan government. An official invitation will make it “legal” for the “European Africa Corps”, which is yet to be formed, to operate freely as did the Russians in Syria. For that reason, they need first to install a government that will invite the European forces. Last month the Europeans created a new fresh “democratic” unity government out of thin air, which was, however, not recognised by the governments in Tobruk and Tripoli. As the Europeans made an attempt to set up this government in Tripoli, the local administration closed the airspace around the city and blocked the roads from Tunis to prevent the imposed authorities from entering the city.

For that reason, the new administration had to come by boat. Rumor has it that Mr. Fayez Serraj, the Brussels-appointed head of state, was brought by the Italian navy. Officially, he was carried by a Libyan naval vessel, with no image footing to corroborate this claim.

The EU resorts to threats as regards the members of the rival governments in Tobruk and Tripoli if they do not support the Brussels-backed government as a result of which some members of the official government in Tripoli have resigned without putting up a fight; there was the case when a dissenter opposing the move of the new masters from Brussels, saw his house mysteriously blown up.

The first task of the new UN “unity government” is to get rid of the two other rival governments and to stem the flow of migrants to Europe as soon as possible. Last week over 6000 immigrants from Africa arrived in Italy within four days.

The second task is to secure French, Italian and German corporate interest in Libya. The oil installations in Libya, partly owned by France Total, Italian ENI and German Wintershall were abandoned last year and left to the protection of 27.000 fighters strong Petroleum Facilities Guard. This guard is not under the authority of the Libyan army anymore and leaves the installations vulnerable to Jihadist militia attacks. It is in the interest of Saudi Arabia to destroy as many installations as possible through their jihadist proxies before the Europeans try to restore order in Libya. Saudi Arabia has a history of using Jihadists to pursue its national interest. The country was founded on this principle as Abdul ibn Saud used Wahibist extremists to conquer the Arabic Peninsula around 1925. While all Libyan rival tribes are trying to prevent the destruction of the Libyan oil infrastructure, there have been some mysterious attacks on oil terminals since the oil price dropped under 50 dollars. Oil storage tanks were set ablaze by jihadists in the major Libyan terminal of Ras Lanuf in January this year. End 2014, an oil terminal was burned down as a result of it after a boat attack that also killed 22 Libyan soldiers.

The Europeans are in a hurry. Without the new unity government fully installed and with some street battles going on in Tripoli, the Italian, French and German foreign ministers visited the city last week to pledge their support for the heavily contested “unity government”. French, Italian and British special forces are operating in Libya for the last couple of months according to the French newspaper Le Monde. But these forces are not able to fulfill Brussels’ objectives.

The question is not whether but rather when the Europeans will send armed forces into Libya. The British have already pledged 1000 men while the Italians have said they would add 5000 soldiers to the newly formed army to restore order in Libya. We expect Brussels to use this as a good opportunity to strengthen the Eurocorps, the harbinger of the pan-European army that is at present performing a minor military operation in Mali. The Eurocorps could probably deploy 5000 men. The coming operation in Libya will be the first large-scale EU joint military intervention ever. No matter how Brussels will frame it, it is a hostile military takeover of the country.

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Al Huxley's picture

Fuck Yeah!  Time to buy AGAIN!  Thanks ZH!

HedgeAccordingly's picture

Remember when the middle east was still chopping heads off and dictators rules with heavy hand? yeah that time was nice, oil supply was balanced and the crime was in check... oh those were the days... now it's a shyt show that might not ever cool down in 1000 years. Pentagon: ISIL has doubled its numbers in Libya says US


N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) HedgeAccordingly Apr 20, 2016 1:56 PM

Long Big-MIC and Big-PoliceState    (for the WIN!!!)

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

How far have we fallen now that France and Italy have to clean up Obama/Clinton's mess.  France and Italy, seriously?

Ivanka2032's picture

So is Gartman gonna 'double die' like Bin Laden if the price of oil goes to $88 as result of the latest glut?

any_mouse's picture

Why no invite to the party for the British? Would that make it NATO?

Get the Afika Korps going and stabilize the hell out of North Africa.


38BWD22's picture



This would be a great time to build greater capacity in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with such low prices.  Will Obama do it?  Likely not.  

Looks like they only add to the SPR when oil prices are much higher.  Now would be a great time to add capacity and then fill 'er up.

Al Huxley's picture

That's funny - it's almost like you believe the government is trying to act in the interest of the population.

Ivanka2032's picture
Ivanka2032 (not verified) 38BWD22 Apr 20, 2016 2:50 PM

"We're from the government & we're here to help (ourselves to your loot)"

Baldrick's picture

build up? lmao! congress was talking about selling some last year to fund the transportation dept.

any_mouse's picture

You know the US .gov is not a business person like yourself. The GOV's priority is to transfer maximum FRNs to the cronies. The amount of oil purchased is secondary.


KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The fucks are once again clustering, this time in Libya. Free quagmires for everybody.........

Bill of Rights's picture

What a slippery slope...

N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) HedgeAccordingly Apr 20, 2016 1:55 PM

I remember the Alamo (and the Weapons of Mass Delusion). 

balz's picture

Europe should work for a stable government in Lybia.

Oh, wait, there was one when Gaddafi was there...

knukles's picture

Sounds like a plan.  Hatched by the NWO for some ungoldlybeknownst reason.
Re-colonize a MENA country.  Memories of the Crusades have not yet fallen away, friends.
Was this too endorsed by Madame Batshitcrazy in a prior role?

Blankone's picture

Putin is losing ground fast at this point.  He took ground at a dramitic pace for a short while but now they have regrouped and he has not only been stopped but may be pushed back.  Turkey is in Iraq, the US is reentering Iraq, NATO forces bombing Libya again, now NATO forces taking over Libya, Turkey forces IN Syria, US special forces in Syria and now ramping up their numbers, US developing an airbase in NE Syria, and it all was allowed to happen because Putin was too timid to seize the advantage while he had it.  See how easily NATO can move into Libya but Russia could not devise or create any opportunity themselves for years.

Add to that the deterioration of the other BRICS or even the primary ones.  China is having real troubles and it appears the boom times were not capitalized upon because of corruption, even more so for Brazil, India seems shakey.  And for all the talk about an alternative to SWIFT and China being the holder of a new global currency in has not happened.  Iran cannot seem to increase its' oil sales without use of the dollar and the use of SWIFT.

Iran better actually have the S300, and in large numbers.  And they better not be detuned weapons - as we know the claim that Iran turned down the modern S2500 in favor for yesterday's S300 is a Putin lie.  Iran better hope Putin and the Russia elite are not actually working with the NWO crew (or simply being buzzards - enjoying the carnage and trying to get something out of it).

Remember, Russia consented to the UN resolutions that authorized the destruction of Libya.  Only, to my knowledge, those resolutions specificly did NOT allow NATO boots on the ground in Libya. 

SmittyinLA's picture

Newsflash Blakone, the one with the most debt doesn't win

hungrydweller's picture

Doesn't matter. JPM & GS have crude to sell, ergo, the price must rise through the summer.

N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) Apr 20, 2016 1:51 PM

Re-colonize.    That's the ticket! 

Al Huxley's picture

Hey, I got a couple of quarts in my garage I'm thinking of selling at a yard sale, that should be added to the global inventory as well...

Bryan's picture

I carry around just about 5 quarts with my car at all times.  When oil hits $10k/barrel, I'll think about selling it, slightly darker but still good oil

Hohum's picture

Who says it will work?

N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) Hohum Apr 20, 2016 1:59 PM

Just like Eye-Rack,  the recolonization will pay for itself. 

Peacefulwarrior's picture

So then Libya and Germany become the only 2 economically viable parts of the EUROzone?

Kido's picture

Did someone say more oil? TIME TO BUY MOARRRR

GoldenGoosed's picture

So oil is going $70 a barrel....

neptune-klm's picture

Should send oil up another $5/barrel-weeeeee 

sarc off :)

Mr. Schmilkies's picture

Give it up, ZH.  Sounding like a broken record.  Hey I don't like it either (oil prices going up even contrary to "fundamentals"), but at some point you gotta throw in the spider-man towel.  

RogerMud's picture

got it, long oil. geopolitical risk is a bitch.

Bryan's picture

Mmm... that calls for a crude rally!

Phillyguy's picture

The EU is facing very tough times and may well disintegrate. Look for Greece to be joined by the other Greece’s- Italy, Spain, Portugal and France- all faced with austerity, increasing unemployment and exploding deficits. The ECBs response to this is continued ZIR/NIR money for stock buybacks and purchasing debt from TBTF corporations. The US/NATO is pushing for the EU to integrate a bankrupt Ukraine into its economy. As US/NATO/GCC chaos expands in the ME, expect more refugees, fleeing the resulting violence and poverty, going to Europe. Turkish President Erdogan will continue exploiting this situation, extorting more Euros from the EU.


wcvarones's picture

That's really refreshing that the US is finally handing over responsibility for colonizing the third world.

mary mary's picture

This is the nations of Europe scrambling to carve Africa up, taking it back to the Pre-WW1 condition, when no African was free.  Poor bastard Africans haven't got a chance.

Rocco the stiff's picture

Boys relax. It's just land for the camps that by virtue of good luck happens to sit on energy that is needed to keep them running. Nothing to see here...




But in all seriousness, the author doesn't even  mention UK. That is bad work, they are at least as involved as anyone else on the list of countries mentioned, most likely more than Germany....

robnume's picture

Anyone who wants to see how the recolonization of Libya by the Europeans will play out only need watch the great film, "The Battle of Algiers."

thethirdcoast's picture

Except for the inconvenient fact that all decent histories of that struggle make it very clear the French Paras and Foreign Legion greased the locals at will all over the country...go read about what kept happening when they would try to sneak troops and material over the Tunisian border....

thethirdcoast's picture

Africa Corps....formed by Germans?


Please....all the Jerries with any testicular fortitude got waxed in the World Wars....

Herdee's picture

Try half of North Africa headed your way.You bomb on behalf of the American NeoCons in Washington like you Europeans are a group of morons,therefore you deserve them.Afraid the bill will bankrupt the EU? I'd be very afraid as well,you idiots should have thought out your actions ahead of time.Europeans remind me of a stupid drunk showing up in front of a Judge's Bench making excuses for all the moronic things he did while he was pissed."Judge,I don't remember."

SmittyinLA's picture

With whos army?

Army of chefs?

An army of Muslim conscripts? How will that work out? Lol

Fix Libya by booting all Muslims from Italy and France, all those "moderate European Muslims" will fix things, right?

atomicwasted's picture

What even is "Gefira"?  A European Stratfor, and thus equally useless?  

venturen's picture

another Hillary Success!

Straw Dog's picture

And responsibilty for this chaotic mess lies at the feet of our esteemed Democratic nominee - Hilary Clinton.

"We came, we saw, he died"

AllBentOutOfShape's picture

Libya, Iran, they want everyone to open up the flood gates.


onmail1's picture

<-- And this is the source of all the problem

All poor & small countries are advised

to again realign themselves with Russia 

if you dont , west (USA & Europe ,canada etc) will gobble you up