Atlanta Fed Unveils First Q2 GDP Forecast, Sees 1.8% Growth, 0.5% Below Wall Street Consensus

Tyler Durden's picture

After being just fractionally above the official Q1 GDP print which yesterday came in at 0.5%, moments ago the Atlanta Fed unveiled its first Q2 GDP estimate which it sees at 1.8%, roughly 0.5% below the sellside average estimate of 2.3%, and just in line with the lowest forecast.

From the Fed:

Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — April 29, 2016


The first GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.8 percent on April 29. The final model nowcast for first-quarter real GDP growth was 0.6 percent, 0.1 percentage points above the advance estimate of 0.5 percent released on Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.


The next GDPNow update is Monday, May 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.


Considering the ongoing retrenchment among US consumer spending, which once again missed expectations and pushed the savings rate to match 3 year highs, we expect this number to be once again revised lower in the coming weeks.

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Aubiekong's picture

Growth in EBT card spending, Growth in section 8 housing, growth in medicaid, and growth in free phones. Its booming babby....

City_Of_Champyinz's picture

Ya right, it will come in at .3%...Just what has gotten better this Spring?

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

They can't report things going negative, and their system doesn't allow them to tell the truth. So here we are......

Dazman's picture

The GDP Now gaps all over the place. Basically, they have no idea. Just like everyone else. They are faking it.

booboo's picture

"ZeroCare premiums must triple, send a memo to my healthcare company donors pronto, I'll be out washing balls with Reggie on the back nine at National"
Barry O

goldenbuddha454's picture

wow, at this rate they'll have us believe we have to double the 9 trillion in debt we already spent in order to double our gdp numbers. Pathetic!

Winston Churchill's picture

Don't give up your day jobs.

Oh wait.......

csmith's picture

Nice place in Mahwah there Daniel. ZH obviously doing well.

Consuelo's picture

Is this how you 'ratchet it down'...?  

ejmoosa's picture

Isn't it amazing how flawed their logic is.  THey just completed their Q1, have less than 4 weeks of data for Q2, which should be added to the last 9 weeks of Q 1 to determine where we are today.


Instead they take four weeks and guess optimistically and what they think will be the next 9 weeks, only to be dismayed as they go forward.


I have written the Atlanta Fed.  They should do a rolling forecast which shows the GDP for the last 91 days.  They should be able to tell us our current velocity at any time, not just our velocitity at 4 check points, and then estimated velocities in between the check points.

Phenomenon_Noumenon's picture

Must be pretty bad. Even HuffPuff's headlines read: "CORP. PROFITS SLIDE 'LONGEST SINCE FINANCIAL CRISIS'"

JailBanksters's picture

I don't think they a clue, they're just picking numbers out of hat.

If it doesn't happen, just use another hat. It ain't rocket science.


E.F. Mutton's picture

Did they use bones or entrails for this prediction?

redc1c4's picture

"...the Atlanta Fed unveiled its first Q2 GDP estimate which it sees at 1.8%..."

in the medical world, we call this sort of thing "hallucinations" or "delusions"...