Initial Jobless Claims Soar Most In 11 Years To 15-Month Highs

Tyler Durden's picture

The last great hope indicator of the bullish narrative appears to have broken as today's initial jobless claims soars 20k to 294k - the highest since Feb 2015. Seemingly confirming the dismal payroll print, one can only wonder how long before this catches 'down' to the weakness in PMI/ISM survey employment data and the hard macro data. The last 3 weeks have seen initial claims soar by the most since 2005...

This is the first time claims have risen YoY since Nov 2012...


Catch 'up' time...


It begins!

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
JamaicaJim's picture

Hey Obama



remain calm's picture

Jobs don't matter in the OBAMA economy, they will just give you an entitlement. Free shit > than jobs.

jamesmmu's picture

It matters when claims break 300k.

Never One Roach's picture

These Are the 10 Cities Where the Middle Class Is Disappearing the Fastest

The American middle class has contracted so much since the 1970s that it’s now smaller than the upper and lower classes put together.

Vinividivinci's picture

Macy's Invites All Charities To Participate In This Year's Weekend-Long ‘Shop For A Cause' Program

Unrelated ?

XAU XAG's picture

The last 3 weeks have seen initial claims soar by the most since 2005...



Holy Crap


That's pre LEHMAN's...............................

Jeffersonian Liberal's picture

Just wait until the national minimum wage is raised to $15.

If/when that happens, this will look like an employment boom.

Dg4884's picture

.gov is setting us up for the soft collapse.  You notice more of the negative trickle out of the spigot.  As soon as our poser president exits the oval office, the rug can be yanked out.  What a fucking legacy this chump has...

Theonewhoknows's picture



To answer how long can this soft collapse go on you have to look at Japan - they are going full swing with he same policies of printing and inflation for what, 3 decades is it? 

I think they are the perfect example of how to eat a cookie and have a cookie (while the world is consumed in flames). Check the recent implementation of this theory in Europe - one name 'Hypo Alpe Adria' and 7 years delay




jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Please....let this shit show blow up before elections (and big time). I wanna see Obammer cry some more but ultimately not be able to blame Bush any more.

E.F. Mutton's picture

It's all part of the psyops M.O.

Bad news precedes the next FOMC, giving them a buffet of excuses not to raise, then afterwards, it's nothing but Joy & Skittles Shitting Unicorns as the market roars again.  SOSDD.

Turin Turambar's picture

I think you're right. I'm halfway expecting a blow off top after next Fed meeting week of the 23rd. Crazy stuff.

XAU XAG's picture



He could trip over..................that can only HOPE LOL

gaoptimize's picture

Rather than "It begins", I think "It's time" is more appropriate.  Too many of the underpinnings of economic growth and stability have been kicked out.

AU5K's picture

Good economic news: Buy moar stocks

Bad economic news: Buy moar stocks

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Trump's main expertise is using debt and bankrupting tools to regain solvency. He sure looks like the man for this job.

He has seen the drain of free trade, open borders nwo america last and soviet controlled economy and lack of capital spending and add in costs of world policeman..and spoke on it to the people..

A man for this season.

jtmo3's picture

No worries. Come the first friday of next month, the numbers will be corrected to reflect a giant gain in employment. All will be well again. /S

sampaine's picture

"Unexpectedly" according to Reuters.

FreezeThese's picture

Cancel the Fed meetings. They don't need to tell us why they're not raising again - it's irrelevant. 

ThrowAwayYourTV's picture

Ha! Think this is bad news wait another 50 or 60 years. Sixty years ago the population in the u.s was about 140 million. Today its well over twice as much around 320- 325 million. The only jobs that will be left in 50-60 years are going to be baby sitting homeless children.. Or! Changing the name of "Planet Earth" to "Planet Hell" in every text book may keep a few thousand busy for a while.

Omen IV's picture

YES - if you look at the economic mercenary action in Liyba or Syria - they create chaos and then clear out the population for at least ten years and repopulate the landscape with their appointed slaves.


Europe will be overrun and white people will be reduced to extinction by Muslims. Same for USA with Brown people.


Systematic genocide

tokerhead's picture

QE unlimited bitches!

Solio's picture

The greatest sell-job of all time. The government has lined The People up to pay interest and fees on money from nothing since the system was put into place. Money from nothing!

herkomilchen's picture

The jobless claims number is within the volatility range of the trend.  It's not a breakout signalling a change in trend.  If anything, that spike at the end of 2012 looked more alarming than this.

Omen IV's picture

you are mssing the fact that there are over 45% of the jobs are 1099 part time which doesnt allow for filing UE easily - the numbers are far far higher than published.


A job addition is defined by BLS as ONE Hour per job so a 40 hour job is equal to a One Hour Job when recorded as a new job addition. The job additions since 2010 are overstated by 60-75%

herkomilchen's picture

Oh without a doubt the numbers are calculated according to bogus criteria.  Wasn't delving into that.  All I'm saying is to the extent we give these numbers any credibility whatsoever rather than ignoring them, the numbers such as they are show no material change.

venturen's picture

S&p 500 2100 TODAY!

Vinividivinci's picture

Unrelated but related...

Macy's Invites All Charities To Participate In This Year's Weekend-Long ‘Shop For A Cause' Program...

I imagine "the cause" is bonuses for Macy's executives...

financialrealist's picture

it just got harder to be a bartender...

Stu Elsample's picture

how's that hopey and changey '5% unemployment' working out for you socialism loving saps??

AbbeBrel's picture

OK that is another signal in the Doug Short charts for the cycle change. Note that the bottom in initial claims precedes a recession by an average of 12 months in the graph. Note also that the graph NAILS EXACTLY the end of a recession. Here is the link: