06-03 15:33: RANsquawk Today's Trading Edge
The last time China set up an air defense identification zone, or ADIZ, was in late 2013, when tensions with Japan had escalated so far, many were speculating if the two nations would not engage in limited warfare. Back then, China set up its first ADIZ in the East China Sea in November 2013 to cover the Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkakus. Both countries claim the uninhabited outcrops but Tokyo controls them. The ADIZ triggered a backlash from Japan, South Korea and the US.
While the confrontation between Japan and China subsided, it was promptly replaced by another geopolitical tension, this time a few thousand kilometers to the Southwest, in the South China Sea, where tensions between China and neighbours Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines have risen since Beijing embarked on major land reclamation work on disputed islands and reefs in the area. In recent months, the US has also gotten involved by sailing ships through contested wates, much to China's anger; most recently a US spy plane was intercepted by two Chinese fighter jets over the area.
Which is probably why, as the SCMP reported yesterday, China is preparing another air defence identification zone, this time in the South China Sea, two years after it announced a similar one in the East China Sea. According to the SCMP, one source said the timing of any declaration would depend on security conditions in the region, particularly the United States’ military presence and diplomatic ties with neighbouring countries.
However, should the US continue engaging in what Beijing views as provocations, China will have no choice but to escalate: “If the US military keeps making provocative moves to challenge China’s sovereignty in the region, it will give Beijing a good opportunity to declare an ADIZ in the South China Sea,” the source said.
The revelation came ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a security forum attended by defense officials from various nations, including Admiral Sun Jianguo and US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter. Disputes in the South China Sea are expected to head the agenda of the three-day event, which starts on Friday. Top Chinese and US officials will also meet next week for their annual strategic and economic dialogue in Beijing.
As the SCMP adds, in a written response to the South China Morning Post on the zone, the defense ministry said it was “the right of a sovereign state” to designate an ADIZ.
“Regarding when to declare such a zone, it will depend on whether China is facing security threats from the air, and what the level of the air safety threat is,” the statement said. What the statement was envisioning was more incidents such as this one profiled two weeks ago when as we reported "Chinese Fighter Jets Fly Within 50 Feet Of US Spy Plane Near China."
A report in Canada-based Kanwa Defence Review said Beijing had defined the area of the ADIZ in the South China Sea, and the timing of the announcement would be a political decision. The report said the new ADIZ would be based on the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Woody Island and China’s seven new artificial islands in Spratly chain, or 200 nautical miles stretches from the islands’ baseline. In other words, in addition to a naval zone, China will claim that the airspace above it belongs to China as well; and should any aircraft - namely belonging to the US - fly above it, China would have a right to take measures.
“China’s new ADIZ will overlap with the EEZs of Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, which are also planning their own ADIZs – with US backing – if China announced it,” Kanwa editor-in-chief Andrei Chang said.
Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military commentator, said the seven artificial islands in the Spratly chain had laid the foundations for China to establish its ADIZ in the South China Sea. But Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said there were signs that regional tension would ease after Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines.
And as a reminder, Duterte, who as we noted yesterday endorses the murder of "corrupt journalists" will likely be heavily supported by the US.
President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Duterte on Monday, saying China hoped “the two sides can work together to bring bilateral relations back on a healthy track." They won't.
The MIC looks bullish.
They expect US to play ball when Japan doesn't?
I wonder what kind of douchebag would own MIC stocks at this point in time. I would bet that yids are major owners and are hoping to profit from this looming genocidal war.
Exactly. They are the usual douchebags that always want to profit from wars and also start them.
China's gonna get more rods from God
Right. *chuckle*
And the Chi-Coms...are supposedly freaking out on...President Redline?...lmao!
Russia's S400 has been delivered to the Chinese last year and S500 in three years. Shoot em all down!
An improved version of the US system.
When we test our ICBMs out of Vandenberg, CA we usually drop them in the ocean near the Spratlys. Should prove interesting next time we try to do that.
Note- I'm going from foggy old memory here, so maybe somebody who's in military could confirm if I'm remembering correctly.
Usually they are directed to Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands. Very cool visuals in this video. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PDL_pIPScSI
Finally tired of Washingtons bullshit ....... lock on to every jet they fly by.....
I don't support a lot of what our government does, but China is WRONG.
The new Philippines foreign minister Yasay, on Monday, May 30, said talking with China remains "necessary" to resolve the West Philippine Sea dispute.
"I don't think that there is another way of resolving this dispute except talking to each other," Yasay told reporters, according to GMA News.
The new president said something similar.
I think ZH is wrong to assume Chine-Philippines relations won't be improving.
Unless of course the USSA assassinates Duterte.
The whole point is that the Philippines may be willing to take proper steps, like talking, but China is not.
Beijing knows it has no legitimate claims in those waters. That's why it is building military outposts and refusing calls to seek international legal mediation on disputes with not just the Philippines, but also Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, and others.
It is China which steadfastly refuses to talk to the Philippines. Countless offers to submit the dispute to international arbitration have been spurned.
When their rotten dictatorship can't even count on a friendly court at the UN, you know their case is spurious, to put it kindly.
Ch..CH..CHA...CHINA PET
Listen y'all after appearing in Hamilton on broadway...i gots to give props to folks for heppen a 300 year old racist mummy corpse like me, learn how to conversate ....so its true you really can teach an old skeleton new rap
So, like me and my founding padre bros been saying....time foe us to get up in they grille...time to shut down them chinamen calorie villages..where they gets lots a props for they new years chitlins
We give them Chinamen thieving bastards a big shout out, and say, if y'all fuck with us, we gonna get all y'all's asses locked down in d-block
Peace y'all...from the trey prez
Of all the founding fathers, Hamilton is THE one who needs to STAY FUCKING DEAD.
The great Ezra Pound rightly referred to Hamilton as the primal snot of Americn history.
Where's the piece of China in there that could make this area into "Chinese Coastal Waters"????
Looks to me that this area borders the Phillipines on one side, Vietnam on the other... With China and Malaysia barely visible on the North and South sides respectively.
Well, in all honesty, the Chi-Com apologists can say the same about Gaum.
But on the upside, the euro-trash shut up instantly on the subject of French Guiana & British VI, so there is that ;-)
The US built China into a monster by providing them the manufacturing and technology.
You can thank the GOP (Kissinger, Nixon) for opening the door and making things happen happen for bonus-seeking US executives and their Offshoring biz models.
When Nixon met Mao supposedly the latter asked the former "how long will we be able to avoid war between our countries? 30-40 years?". No far off.
tales for the kids.
because Zionists visited some time ago comrade Mao????? Their friend?
And still nobody give a damn about Taiwan's opinion and the fact that even they have at least 1 island (real, not built-up) in the SPRATLY; yep, let's just pretend they're not a party to anything that happens here and it's the PRC, and only the PRC, being "unreasonable".
Taiwan's claim is the exact same as China's, if you want to mention Taiwan, you can't avoid the uncomfortable matter of "how can I support any of Taiwan's claims and denounce China's when both are using the same historic Chinese claims"
Boycott them immediately. Don't wait until Trump is elected.
Just Nuke the Chinks already.
DUMB-ASS REDNECK; nuking the "chinks" will be nuking yourself.
Ever heard of nuclear winter!
Sure I've heard of it. It's the solution to Global Warming. Turn down the thermostat just a little bit if it gets a mite too sweaty out there by wiping some shithole off the map.
Win-win.
Your nasty side coming through loud and clear tarabel.
They nuke u back. Did you say something now?
Setting aside US entanglement, what makes China's claims so spurious aside from their questionable historical validity is the fact China isn't just claiming the islands... it's claiming the islands and all ocean territory from the Chinese coast to the islands and everything in between. It's tantamount to the UK claiming not just the Falklands, but all the oceans between the Falklands the UK, or the US claiming territorial control over all the oceans from Hawaii to the West Coast. So yeah.... aside from the piss poor historical record of Chinese "ownership," the breadth and scope of their claims are unprecedented. Like to sit back and watch Mediterranean countries carve up the Mediterranean based on bullshit historical claims and watch those fireworks. The Chinese are off their rockers.....
China seems very hard to want to recreate the good old days of the late 18th century and pretend it's a wee bit late to the colonialism and mercantilism shindig, but it can asshole its way around the planet with the best of em.
Good thing Global Warming is going to sink those islands... Oh Wait..
So my Americans 'friends', the message is simple. Stay home and stick to your knitting.
Do you think China gives a rats ass about selling crap to a bankrupt country anymore?
China is just as bankrupt as the rest is. What China fears the most are the angry hungry masses marching on Beijing. Therefore a "great patriotic war" would be a welcome diversion. That would work good for America too.
Anyway, the world is going to burn again.
I'm with you, Dark Daze. Let's impose a total US embargo on imported Chinese manufactured items.
Or a total Chinese embargo on exports to the US, if you prefer.
Either one is fine with me.
Good for China, I hope they get those islands well defended, and fuck the vassal states around it.
I don't buy anything made from terrorist USSA, e.g. My girfriend phoned me and asked which product I wanted from a shop she was at, she mentioned a few, and one of them was amerikkkan(rare around here), I said do not get that one. I watch what I buy, this includes izraHELL, Turk, Saudi and a few other countries, bar codes I know as well.
Don't support terrorists.
We cant even maintain our own military aircrafts without parts from china.
When you play sports with an adversary who has you by the balls, its not polite to threaten to step on his feet.
China knows US capabilities well. If they choose to escalate, they know far more about Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and US Regional capabilities than the US people.
Their interventions therefore can only be seen as Strategic.
The media is in a constant state of war fear.
Its like groundhog day, week after week month after month year after year.
One ends up wanting something significant to happen to relieve the tension.I have been reading WW3 flashpoint stories in the "alternative media" for at least 15 years.
From Iran to Russia to china to north Korea.
Yes, and the U.S. can un-build them just as easily. Wait and see.
C.A. Fitts once said that freedom of navigation is critical to maintaining the Dollar-dominant, US financial system. Without it, the American system's continued primacy is in jeopardy (paraphrasing).
It's an odd gamble, what China is doing. Everybody in the area seems to be hostile to them, yet here they are, telling everyone how things are going to be. If China confronts the US and the US backs down or loses, I'd imagine the countries in the region would become more subservient and submissive toward Beijing.
If China throws down and gets spanked, I have doubts that China will survive in its present size and current power, much longer.
I don't agree with China on this issue, but hey, the U.S. have set the precedent, if you want something just go and fucking take it, there are no laws/rules, do whatever you fucking want.
I say "Fill your boots, China." If anyone gets in your way then fucking bomb the living shit out of them....Just like big ol' Unkie Sam does.
War is America's biggest industry. Drawing an imaginary line on the waves of the ocean won't stop it a bit.