Baby Bust: US Fertility Rate Unexpectedly Drops To Lowest On Record

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via,

Economists figured the recovery would bring about increased confidence and a rise in the birth rate.

Instead, the rate dropped into a tie with the lowest birth rate on record.

This is yet another surprise for economists to ponder.

Please consider the Wall Street Journal report Behind the Ongoing U.S. Baby Bust.

The newest official tally  from the National Center for Health Statistics showed an unexpected drop in the number of babies born in the U.S. in 2015. The report was a surprise: Demographers had generally expected the number of births to rise in 2015, as it had in 2014. Instead, the U.S. appears to still be stuck in something of an ongoing “baby bust” that started with the recession and housing collapse and has yet to reverse.

Baby Bust

Fertility Rate

Baby Bust by Race

Fertility Rate 2

Baby Bust by Age

Fertility Rate 3

The Wall Street Journal concludes “There’s still good reason to believe the birth rate will pick up in coming years. After slumping for nearly a decade into the 1970s, births picked up in the 1980s and 1990s (giving us the generation known as millennials.) The most common age in America is 24 or 25, meaning there’s a very large cohort of these millennials who are about to hit the years that people are most likely to become parents.”

No Mystery

I fail to see why any economist should be surprised by this. A record number of millennials are living at home.

millennials living at home3

millennials living at home4

This is simply too obvious. So I have two questions:

  1. Do economists read anything or do they just believe in their models?
  2. If they do read, how come they cannot grasp simple, easy to understand ideas?

Economists who could not figure any of this out now place their faith in the fact “a very large cohort of these millennials who are about to hit the years that people are most likely to become parents.

Mish’s Alternate View

Unless the millennials...

  1. Shed student debt
  2. Move out on their own
  3. Get a job that supports raising a family
  4. No longer have to take care of their aging parents
  5. Have a significant change in attitudes about homes, families, debt, and mobility ….

...economists will still be wondering “what happened” years from now.

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css1971's picture

If you have less than 2 children or as a grandparent less than 4 grand children then you're a genetic dead end, a dinosaur, and your genes are on the way out of the gene pool.


N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) css1971 Jun 10, 2016 3:02 PM


Considering most people vote for the Red or Blue Team, that's not such a bad thing.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Either that or people are getting smarter about bringing children into this world.

My pops always told me, "If there weren't drunk young men, there would be fewer babies and wars."  Then again, plenty of drunk young men out there still.

Dead Man Walking's picture

more drnk young women = more babies

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Here are a couple of fractured lyrics:


"My future's so bright, I've gotta' wear contraception."


From the Kingston Trio:

Here's to the maid who steals a kiss and stays to steal another,

Here's to the maid who steals a kiss and stays to steal another,

She's a boon to all mankind,

She's a boon to all mankind,

She's a boon to all mankind,

... For soon she'll be a mother!

Bangin7PoundCocks's picture
Bangin7PoundCocks (not verified) Dead Man Walking Jun 10, 2016 7:15 PM

More butt sex?

jeff montanye's picture

babies maybe.  wars, sober old men (and now, thanks hillary, old women).

knukles's picture

Coulda toldja about this.  Remember those old experiments where they put 2 or 3 pairs of rats in a big structure and watch their behavior?  They eat all the can, fuck a lot, leave messes all over and in short create a ghetto.
They were imitating their captors.  Stockholm Rat Syndrome
Pretty soon they just stop multiplying and die back substantially.

CorporateCongress's picture

and also, eating each other. So forget about cats and dogs, when the shit really hits, people will eat anything and anyone

pods's picture

Now why would this be a problem?

Oh, right, the money system. My bad.


jeff montanye's picture

yes, precisely.  compound interest on compound debt does not work with a declining population over time.


and the world human population peaks no later than 2050 and declines afterward with no clear limit save zero.


here's 2055 but they underestimate the severity of the coming world depression, imo.

Row Well Number 41's picture

There was a group of co-workers joking about Asians a eating dogs and cats, and it was all fun and games until an old man who came here after the Vietnam war said “When your country is at war, and your family hasn’t eaten in days you will eat the dog.”.  It wasn’t so funny after that.

MalteseFalcon's picture

The birth rate will not pick up until transsexuals can get pregnant.


So let's put cancer to one side and get to work on those artificial uteruses, and fake lactating breasts.


It'll be just like the 50s:  lots of babies, cars with fins and I love Lou C. on the interwebs.



Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

It's not the economy, Obama's economy is doing great, much better than W's ever was. It's just that Obama voters are enjoying thier full employment and money now and will have kids later. Can't blame them. Obama we want another 8 years!

jeff montanye's picture

you got it.  less black and older, bit more female yet colder. slick willie for first gent; hillary for prisonerdent.

N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) DerdyBulls Jun 10, 2016 3:15 PM


For the trash-class?  Let's hope so.

MalteseFalcon's picture

Cue Hitlery's idol Margret Sanger.

Lore's picture

You raise an important point. How many children in each group are being wiped out by abortion as a means of birth control?  Are there correlations between things like ethnicity, income level, debt level and sperm count?  What about regional variation?  What about diet, lifestyle, nutritional  deficiencies, medications and vaccinations?


Thousands upon thousands of hits: Antidepressants linked to miscarriage risk, Birth Outcomes with Fluoxetine Use During Pregnancy, Vaccines Cause Spontaneous Abortions


Mainstream economists tend to lack multidisciplinary perspective.  Gathering data for the variables that they can track is hard enough.  And this is politically sensitive territory, so you're hindered by the need to parrot acceptable narratives.  Heaven forbid that you might debunk myths or uncover sensitive truths!  In that respect, the discussion is as handicapped as the analysis of the Global Warming scam. 

bloofer's picture

GMOs have been linked to reproductive problems: Rats fed GMO soy experience steadily lessening fertility and become completely infertile in three or four generations. Another issue is that phthalates, which are ubiquitous in the environment, also cause reproductive problems. I was unable to find any statistics about the incidence of infertility today, compared to prior decades, but anecdotal evidence suggests it has become much more common. One woman I know feeds cheap GMO dogfood to feral raccoons to help keep them from reproducing so rapidly. (I don't know if it works, but that's the strategy.)

Oddly, teen pregnancy rates have declined--drastically in some areas. Increasingly, lower birthrates are not always about choices.

This is another one of those phenomena one can't help but wonder about. Was the introduction of GMOs, phthalates, and assorted gender-benders part of the plan?

I think we'll be hearing a LOT more about this issue in a few years.

bloofer's picture

Another point: Male sperm counts are MUCH lower today than they were in the 1950s. In some areas of the US, male sperm counts are only a little over half what they were in the past.

abyssinian's picture

Many gays and lesbos out of closets, half the men couldn't get it up because of stress, the other half can't even afford to buy a movie ticket to bring a girl on a date. 

Mostly welfare cases having babies, more kids, higher balance on the EBT cards. 

Alberich's picture

In biology, there's r-selection (more offspring, lower quality, like insects) and k-selection (fewer offspring, higher quality, like primates). What strategy prevails over time? Hint: humans are the most k-selected species of all.

abyssinian's picture

Really? Have you seen a Hillary or Bernie's rally? Have you ever watch the libtards debating on MSNBC? Better yet, did you watch the video of that Dallas airport shooting today? where morons were just standing around walking around like zombies 5 ft away from the cop unloaded an entire mag on a guy? Higher quality? lol

JRobby's picture

Agree, looks like those people wandering around like zombies were on a prozac/benzo cocktail. 

MalteseFalcon's picture

Let's turn DDT loose again and get an update on this.

MalteseFalcon's picture

Everyone knows lesbos cannot get pregnant.

They have special hormones that protect against it.

Just like women who get raped against their will.

chairman of the bored's picture

Porch monkeys are breeding like rabbits...

optimator's picture

And if you're Muslem you'll have 10.5 children and your Grandchildren will live under Sharia Law.

MalteseFalcon's picture

Exactly 10.5 children, because Allah demands the occasional child sacrifice.

jeff montanye's picture

indeed he does.  that's why iran is under replacement rate fertility along with the u.s., china and much of the rest of the world:


The replacement fertility rate is roughly 2.0 births per woman for most industrialized countries (2.075 in the UK, for example), but ranges from 2.5 to 3.3 in developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement is 2.33 children per woman.



JRobby's picture

When you can't even finance a Happy Meal..............


"We be pumpin' em out. We got da EIC, child credit, dat EBT

css1971's picture

Another thing I'll point out is that younger women are more fertile than older women, and have a significantly easier time of pregnancy and childbirth. Delaying children till mid-late 30s is going against nature. i.e. Doing it the hard way.

QEpp's picture

How does having my genes in the gene pool benefit me?

Artemis Rand's picture
Artemis Rand (not verified) Jun 10, 2016 3:00 PM

Actually, it should read like this:


"White people are having the fewest babies on record while niggers, spics, wetbacks, and other assorted flotsom and jetsom and worthless riff raffs are fucking and sucking and popping out more muds for the white man to pay for and look after."


Fuck you if you don't like it. It is the goddamned mother fucking truth for goddamned mother fucking christs sakes!

N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) Artemis Rand Jun 10, 2016 3:04 PM


Don't forget the wops, mics, and thicker than concrete block slavs.  

Agent P's picture

According to my chart reading skills, "white people" births actually ticked up in 2015, while the "niggers, spics, wetbacks..." categories you reference were all down for the year.  It has been a while since I've been in school long, in fact, that back then "spics" and "wetbacks" were actually the same how times have changed. 

jeff montanye's picture

and i didn't know jesus and mary were that close. 


learn something every day.  that's why i come here, for the erudition.

MalteseFalcon's picture

If I see one more grotesquely obese white woman pushing a biracial baby, I'm gonna write my congressman.

N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) Jun 10, 2016 3:01 PM


Well, if those 40 - 45 yo woman would have more babies maybe we'd get that birth rate back to normal.   What's wrong with these middle-aged women anyway...

Mr Pink's picture

Millenials are too busy wondering if they are a man or a woman

abyssinian's picture

Right, they can't even figure out which bathroom to use, nevermind put it in the right hole. lol

Restorative_Ally's picture

That or they can't afford kids. If you figure white women are making babies in their mid 30's, then the men they are making them with are probably 40+. Tells me that a guy has shit in financial prospects on average until around 40. Because women will breed at any age for the "right" (moneyed) guy.

Alberich's picture

Our ancestors laugh in Valhalla when a modern first-world adult explains that he doesn't have enough money for children.

Restorative_Ally's picture

Yes, because space and opportunity abound in the modern world.

jeff montanye's picture

well if you believe in valhalla, you might believe . . . .