"Deliberately Overblown" Brexit Fears Backfire

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by John Browne via Euro Pacific Capital,

As the June 23rd BREXIT (the UK-wide referendum to leave the EU) vote draws near, the polls indicate a close result. Those urging a vote for the UK to remain inside the EU are suggesting increasingly dire economic consequences that would follow a yes vote by the British people to leave. Voices from London, Brussels, and Washington have all put immense pressure on British voters to bend to the will of the elites.

To listen to their commentary one would think that apocalypse was just around the corner. But is there any substance to their warnings?

The Pro-EU membership camp is led by Prime Minister David Cameron, supported by most of his cabinet, the Bank of England, the BBC and the massive support from the UK and EU governments that have funded enormous advertising campaigns against separation. Given this weight of their power, it is amazing how strong the support for a British exit (BREXIT) has remained.

When Britain first joined the European Economic Community (the precursor to the EU) in 1973, the primary motivation was the hopes of increasing British trade through participation in the world’s largest free-trade zone. However, the hope that the union would simply be a free-trading zone of sovereign countries has morphed into a drive for an EU superstate that has relentlessly pushed for greater regulations on businesses and people and greater control of local laws that have nothing to do with trade.

It has been kept remarkably quiet, for instance, that the EU intends to divide the UK into eleven administrative regions, all reporting directly to Brussels. Although Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will remain intact as individual national regions, England will be split into eight regions. Worse still, the coastal counties of England will be teamed with regions in Portugal, France, the Netherlands and Germany, where they will remain in a minority role. Even the English Channel is to be renamed. Very little mention is of the EU proposal for EU-wide ID and tax numbers, likely heralding a heavy EU taxation regime.

Likewise, the proposals to create EU-wide armed forces have been put quietly on the back burner. England has a long and proud history of struggling for its sovereignty. In just the past two centuries she has stood alone against Napoleon and Hitler, before inspiring other nations to join the fray. The presence of French or German armed forces used to support a European police force in the UK will not sit well with the English.

All this and many more threats to the British people have been kept largely quiet. Instead, the main activities of the Pro-EU group have been concentrated on the economic and monetary catastrophe that would face the UK if it were to cut itself off from trading with the EU. Some call this, ‘Project Fear’. The actual underlying facts paint a somewhat different picture, one that makes the Pro-EU case appear misleading, even deliberately so.

The basic argument is that with about 50 percent of its current trade with the EU, the UK would face a catastrophic economic and monetary collapse if it left the EU. As a threat, this sounds potentially devastating. Doubtless it has persuaded some. But in the light of reality, a different and far less worrying image emerges.

The UK has the fifth largest national economy in the world, according to 2015 figures compiled by the International Monetary Fund. In its present state of economic stagnation, the EU can ill-afford to lose the UK. According to the March 2016 Statistical Bulletin from the Office for National Statistics, the UK has had a negative trade balance in goods with the EU that has averaged about $8 billion a month this first quarter. If the UK were to leave without being able to negotiate an independent trade deal, the EU economy might shrink by some $96 billion a year. The UK was the second largest net contributor to the EU budget last year. It follows that the 8 English regions (with Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland considered as 'relatively poor') may in aggregate be the second largest suppliers of future intra-EU money transfers from the so-called 'rich' to the poorer southern and eastern regions of Europe. In that sense, the EU needs the UK more than the other way round.

The Pro-EU camp ignore the trade balance issue completely and threaten, as did President Obama, that the UK would be left out in the cold, like Switzerland, and unable to negotiate its way out of a disaster. Switzerland is not an EU member and has an economy of less than a quarter the size of the UK’s. And yet from 2009-2013 she exported, on average, 4.6 times the value per person to the EU than does the UK (The Truth About Trade Outside the EU, William Dartmouth MEP, June 2015). With a negative EU trade balance, why would the UK be unable to negotiate, from outside, a trade agreement at least as good as that achieved by Switzerland?

[As an aside, over dinner many years ago, my occasional Lords and Commons golfing partner Dennis Thatcher asked me how the UK would survive alone in an era when world power blocks and corporations were getting bigger? I replied, “In the same way as Switzerland.” He retorted while hitting the table hard with his hand, “That’s just what Margaret thinks!”]

Further, the EU negotiates international trade agreements under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO), in the primary interests of the EU, not of the UK. England has flourished by trading globally, especially with the U.S. and the British Commonwealth. The EU has no trade agreements yet with China or Japan. Outside the EU, the UK would be enabled to negotiate freely to trade with the entire world and be unfettered by the EU where it has a muted voice of 1 among 28 members. Furthermore, free of burdensome and costly EU regulations, the British economy likely would be re-energized, particularly among the vital job-creating small business sector.

In addition to economic collapse, the Pro-EU camp postulates that the British pound sterling, still one of the top five global trading currencies, would plummet following a BREXIT. However, many informed observers believe the international monetary system is on the cusp of a major collapse. In these circumstances, the vital interests of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and even the Bank of China would be to steady the ship to avert a collapse of fiat currency. Unimaginable amounts of central bank money could be deployed to save the pound, rendering it a false scare.

On the other hand, although the UK is not a member of the euro, a BREXIT indirectly could threaten the euro, now the world’s second currency.

Already a number of EU members are experiencing anti-EU sentiments among their people. The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which forced the BREXIT vote, is not alone. It is part of a sizable block, styled the Europe for Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) group, in the EU parliament. It is comprised of representatives from the UK, France, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic. In addition, countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal are becoming very unhappy about the implications of Eurozone membership. A for BREXIT vote could ignite an implosion within the Eurozone rather than being a threat to Sterling. This may be what worries the international central banking and political elite most. It has led directly to massive global elite support for Cameron’s Project Fear.

If the British public wises up to David Cameron’s game of fear and vote for BREXIT, there will be some short-term shock and disruption in currencies, equities, bonds, precious metals and possibly employment. However, the global central bank and political elites could be expected to move very fast to avoid the development of deeper problems. Negotiations likely would be concluded very quickly to calm things down with minimal damage to the UK economy or its currency.

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Old Europe's picture

"---that apocalypse was just around the corner..."

for the globalist masters and their accomplices in the Brussels-EU that is.

thesonandheir's picture

Vote Leave and take back control!

JohninMK's picture

We leave and the Central Banks have the perfect excuse for the forthcoming financial meltdown.

 

They can blame the Brits again.

 

But will we care? Not on your life.

SubjectivObject's picture

Note to the Brits of good hear; an advertised/implied/asserted/expected "close" vote is a Bremain result.

Look to the recent Scotland example.  The Brexit vote is yet one more instance of mass mind control techniques on full display.

If the preliminary numbers are not at least 75% Brexit, then the result will be reported as Bremain.

And, Brexit principals need to get inside and personal with the vote counting system; else ..... DieBold(ly).

JohnGaltUk's picture

I wrote to Mr Salmond and asked why he campaigned for so long for an independant Scotland only to support the Bremain camp and give Scotlands soveriegnty to Brussels.

 

He is never answered my mail. He is a crook and so is Sturgen. Nationalism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

HowdyDoody's picture

Take back control? Are you joking? The US and the Banksters rule the UK irrespective of whether it stays or leaves.

 

Beowulf55's picture

I got an ounce of silver that says they will not leave (see Scotland vote).  Can I get odds?

Sanctuary2's picture

GORGO and his/her mom will rise up out of the sea and destroy London all over again if you vote for BREXIT-so be wary

Ghordius's picture

"or the globalist masters and their accomplices in the Brussels-EU that is"

hey, that's really mean of you. demoting the EU from "globalist masters" to accomplices of "globalist masters"

EuroPox's picture

I think he actually meant 'Globalist Masters' and their bitchez in Brussels.  The 5 presidents of the EU are too dumb to be accomplices - they destroy everything they touch; ask anyone in Greece.

wildbad's picture

Better off out.

Watch Brexit: The Movie.

I can't wait to see the towers of burocratic paper falling or burning and all of thos hundred thousand €urocrats heading back to their suddenly sovereign nations to do an honest days labor.

Ghordius's picture

lol, "hundred thousand eurocrats" the whole bunch is just shy of 30'000

 

that's not even a small department, in the US. that's one or two thousands Brits that might return home. a drop in the sea of a few millions Brits working for the British state

EddieLomax's picture

If we did exit the EU and the EU did actually collapse then I think Europes future would suddenly get brighter.

It is not the fix for all the problems, but the immigration problem would be fixed overnight with detention centers and fences.  The other problem we have is with Muslim immigrants then, deportations would fix that, after that point Europe would find itself running very big surpluses economically.

I doubt it will happen as most people still seem to do whatever the BBC/politicians tell them, my guess is it will only happen after we crash economically.

cannuck21's picture

Completely agree. Every voter should watch this Movie - it is excellent. And here is the link. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0

Please vote OUT!

 

Martin Armstrong has been interviewed and argues that Britian will thrive outside of the EU - here is the link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPyYP8sjWBc   

 

 

EuroPox's picture

There is also the issue of uncontrolled immigration.

Last year 9 out overy every 10 new jobs went to a non-Brit!!

BREXIT!!  OUT!!  LEAVE!! - or we are fucked!!

DetectiveStern's picture

300,000+ net immigration a year. Are there new hospitals, schools, houses etc built to support this growing population NO! But the thickos on the remain seem to think everything will be fine with the infastructure we've had in place for decades.

Vote leave, take control.

silverscouseparis's picture

propaganda,the elites in this case are the leave campaign...every single person in the uk will have to buy a new passport,to get some sun and take a holiday from that rain drenched isle...the banking industry in europe will move from london to frankfurt..there will be little access to the single market for uks products and scotland will leave the uk..these little englanders will make the uk even more london centric.as it is .the lights on the motorways go out as you drive up north past birmingham,theres no fast rail service to the provinces..the "elite"are very firmly the rougue as end of a conservative party intent on destroying itself and the U.K.

RockySpears's picture

With a wave of a pen, the current UK passport stays valid until its expiry, that's it, just the wave of a pen.

 

London will be free of EU Banking Legislation/Regulation and so will become more attractive.

 

Do you think BMW, VW, Mercedees, Renault, Peugeot, Fiat etc etc are going to allow their Leaders to trash their car exports?  No, thought not.  Trade will change in subtle ways, but will not change much, they have a vested interest in us.

 

Scotland will not leave, even if it votes to, it simply cannot afford it.

 

As for rail links, the ENTIRE US is devoid of a decent rail link (Go Go HyperLoop), and just look at AmTrak!

 

UK will be fine,  Vote out, feel proud again and slap Cameron and Merkel in the face to boot, what's not to like,

 

RS

HowdyDoody's picture

"London will be free of EU Banking Legislation/Regulation and so will become more attractive."

It is US regulations that are smothering banking.

 

raywolf's picture

1/2 the UK banking industry is in Switzerland already.. the rest will stay in London.... UK out of the EU looks like a larger version of Switzerland or Norway.... high standards of living and welfare, low crime, respected national sovereignty, desirable ex-pat locations etc. etc. etc. etc. Many more advatnages of going out. Few of staying in.

JohninMK's picture

What utter tosh, didn't you read the article? Talk about more Brexin fear bullshit.

 

Clearly you have not been to our 'provinces' by rail? It may not be the fastest but 140MPH is good enough when most journies are quite short as we are not a big country. Also, to conserve energy (EU rules you know) virtually all main road street lighting is off at night.

 

New passport??? They will just issue a UK replacement when the current one runs out.

 

Banks move to Frankfurt, not bloody likely, few English speaking international bankers would make the move to live in the backwaters of Germany as opposed to the glamour of London.

 

 

 

Ghordius's picture

good comment, +1

"Also, to conserve energy (EU rules you know) virtually all main road street lighting is off at night."

can't resist: that "EU rules, you know"... is so deliciously English. to the point that I could imagine it would be really, really a problem for many Englishmen (not to mention politicians) not being able to blame the EU for lots of things that aren't about the EU... at all

seriously, Britain needs to leave the EU... for the EU's sake, too. on the other side, we, those left by Britain, will probably have to find a new source of EU Mythology

I particularly enjoyed the "Save Our Jugs" Campaign launched by "The Sun", for example

UndroppedClanger's picture

It's interesting that you talk about the motorway lights disappearing as you head north as if it implies that the admittedly less luxury-soaked life in the north is awful. I moved from just outside the M25 to just south of the Scottish border in 2010 and my experience of life in the north has been one of friendlier people, simpler living, real communities and work that has tangible results. Where *are* there fast rail services to the 'provinces' (a word that has distinctly condescending overtones and makes me wonder if it's a slip of a mask)? There are fast services from the hub cities which, like everywhere else, are connected by other transport.

As to the rest, you sound like Mystic Meg hovering over her crystal ball spouting random bollocks and probably with about the same degree of accuracy.

Guitarbill's picture

A nice market sell off leading up to the June 23rd vote would be good fourtune for the globalist, after all it could be "sold" as a harbinger of things to come...you know "the world will end". Then when the the vote comes back in the globalist favor and the UK stays trapped in the roach motel the marlets rip back up.  Place your bets.

raywolf's picture

Doesn't make sense does it..... Swiss Franc has always been the bastion of independance and stability..... the 'safe' currency.... GBP out of EU = more of the same... a competitor to the CHF. GBP should rally on an exit.

MiTasol's picture

"If the British public wises up"

 

Sadly, that's a non-starter.

zhandax's picture

Even more sadly, they will decide to have another pint and listen to the telly, at the same time listening to their besotted sheep neighbors regale them with the dangers of leaving the heard; quite similar to their descendents in north America.

JohninMK's picture

I fear that you are correct, but once you get out of London the picture seems to change fast.

 

Our here uncontrolled immigration is the big issue, its causing huge problems in local hospitals, doctors, dentist, schools, none of which expanded in line with the increase in our population over the past 5 years. In fact it is probably not possible to increase those services regardless of the amount of money (which we don't have) that was thrown at it due to physical and manpower limitations.

 

The over 60s in particular are not happy, and they are the ones who will definitely vote. I hope the Brexin camp keep thinking fear will win it for them.

Amalgamated Tang's picture

 

Obama (all praise and honor be upon him) is against the Brexit, what else do you need to vote in favor?

 

More important, ask yourselves this: How has being OUTSIDE the EU hurt Switzerland?

 

The real issue: forget the ads and the movies, if GB leaves the EU, then more of the costs are placed on the shoulders of the Germans, Dutch, and French. They will pull out eventually. And when they do, one, two, or all three of them will join the BRICS Eurasian Union, which will destroy the EU (that goes without saying) and US $Dollar hegemony in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. That's the real issue. Do you want to support crazed US libtard spending? Or do you wish to try some other option (BRICS or independence)?

 

I don't know which side of that issue you support, but that should be the primary basis of your decision.

zhandax's picture

One suggested edit;  Obama (fuck him and the horse he rode in on) has no dog in this fight if he indeed represents the people (not corporations) of these united states.

natxlaw's picture

Dax,

You leave that horse alone.

Ghordius's picture

"More important, ask yourselves this: How has being OUTSIDE the EU hurt Switzerland?"

that's an excellent question. it has not. but... is Switzerland truly outside the EU?

take immigration, one of the most felt issues of the BreXit Campaign. through and because of all the bilateral treaties that Switzerland has with the EU, the little country is part of the Schengen Area. While the UK is not, thanks to an opt-out that it took, courtesy of being a member

so it would be quite illogical to exit the EU because of immigration of EU citizens... and then ask the EU to have the same set of deals as Switzerland, which include free movement of people (of the right nationality or provided with the right visa) more then now

Bunga Bunga's picture

pull the war cards in 3...2...1

Billybullshit's picture

Oh look, more evidence of the pussy English

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633958/England-fans-truly-arriv...

We will never be europeans.

mosfet's picture

Please forward this article to any Brits you know and kindly encourage them to forward it to their friends & family.  UK citizens need to know the facts that the EU and MSM are concealing, so they can make an informed decision.

JPMorgan's picture

Don't worry everyone David Cameron is going to negotiate the UK a better deal.

Oh yeah about that... er it didn't go so well.

They said to go away until AFTER the vote.

 

WTFUD's picture

On the mayoral election eve the labour muslim mayor Khan supposedly shared a platform with a Daesh sympathiser Imam while several days later he was a pillar of society with his pro-EU stance; yep Cameron's a real fucking genius.

giggler321's picture

Think about, recession every 5-7years, 2007-08 was last.  I know of a local ground work business that has near 1m debt and no new work, over 50% of that debt has been created since 2008.   Next recession around the corner and there is little they can do about it.  On top of that, the bank of england has no bullets left, LTRO, QE, what next this time around?  money drops wont work.

In the BoE minutes and working papers they talked about not recognising a default in insolvent banks and converting deposits into equity so the FSCS insurance fund (at round 4BN GBP) which is wholly inadequate covering over 160BN+ GBP (circa 2006) isn't drawn on.

Perfect sheeple setup.  Deflection from bankers and political elite, Brits exit, economy goes down the pan, pensions gone, savings confiscated under new emergency laws all because THE PEOPLE VOTED TO LEAVE not because there was anything else wrong.

foxenburg's picture

It's a shame Lord Browne didn't offer support earlier on in the campaign. Especially since he would appeal to the gay vote that I haven't seen brought on board.

RattieNomNom's picture

all brits are simply racist plebs... afraid of yEaster yUropeens ;D (stealing all social contribution they might owe to the white folks) DISGRACEFUL! ;P

Ghordius's picture

oh, this is truly a gem... of dis-info

 

"It has been kept remarkably quiet, for instance, that the EU intends to divide the UK into eleven administrative regions, all reporting directly to Brussels. Although Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will remain intact as individual national regions, England will be split into eight regions.

 

Worse still, the coastal counties of England will be teamed with regions in Portugal, France, the Netherlands and Germany, where they will remain in a minority role.

 

Even the English Channel is to be renamed. Very little mention is of the EU proposal for EU-wide ID and tax numbers, likely heralding a heavy EU taxation regime."

 

can't stop laughing about all this rubbish. nice touch, that "teaming with regions in Portugal... etc". it directly feeds into American old near-forgotten colonial nightmares of getting partioned by colonial powers. oh btw, what taxation regime is this guy talking about?

EscapeKey's picture

yeah [CITATION NEEDED] is the overriding theme of this particular article. and i say that as a brexit'er.

UndroppedClanger's picture

Snap. I trawled for a bit and what I found leads me to believe the author is referring to this old hat: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/eu-wipes-england-off-the-map-as-gordon-br... which in turn looks like it stems from this http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/de/policy/cooperation/european-terri...

I can't find anything recent on the subject.

messystateofaffairs's picture

Insider info, maybe Dennis Thatcher told him over drinks at the golf course, anyway if its true we will never be told. Just assume the worst and be ready for it.

Ghordius's picture

what does the author mean, with this?

 

"On the other hand, although the UK is not a member of the euro, a BREXIT indirectly could threaten the euro, now the world’s second currency."

 

indirectly? the real issue of the EUR and BreXit is that the biggest trading place for the EUR is London. if the UK exits the EU, this could change, one of the fears of the City of London

SoDamnMad's picture

Ghordius

The Euro will not be so strong with the banking problems rising their ugly head all over Portugal, Spain, Italy, Austria, need I go on?

Ghordius's picture

please, do. starting with what this has to do with the UK leaving the EU28, while not being a member of the eurozone19

Lucky Leprachaun's picture

Browne is a great name for a homo. But I like the way he thinks.

Ghordius's picture

oh, this article is a true mine of... bullshit

 

"Likewise, the proposals to create EU-wide armed forces have been put quietly on the back burner. England has a long and proud history of struggling for its sovereignty. In just the past two centuries she has stood alone against Napoleon and Hitler, before inspiring other nations to join the fray. The presence of French or German armed forces used to support a European police force in the UK will not sit well with the English."

 

the sheer idea of French or German armed forces policing the UK is... I'd don't even know how to call that. retarded is the only label that I can find

SpanishGoop's picture

True relly retarded.

I believe the idea came from Brussels, so it must be.