Why The Just Released YouGov Poll May Have Sealed The Outcome Of The UK Referendum

Tyler Durden's picture

Moments ago, when the latest YouGov poll came out and showed a modest lead of 51% to 49% for Remain (up from 44% for Leave and 42% for Remain as of June 19), showing a steep drop in the momentum of the Leave campaign...

and in the process pushing the FT poll tracker in "Remain's" favor at 47% to 45%, up from 44% to 45%... 

 

... it may have effectively sealed the fate of the Brexit referendum.

Here is the reason.

As Reuters reports, like in 2014 and unlike in national elections, British broadcasters on Thursday will not conduct exit polls - in which people are asked as they leave polling stations how they voted - once polling closes at 10pm local time because the margin of error for an event which has little precedent is too large.

However, that same logic apparently does not prevent the very same YouGov pollster cited above, to publish a poll showing how people have voted in the European Union referendum shortly after polling stations close on Thursday. The poll will be based on responses from a pre-selected group of people seen as representative of the wider electorate on how they actually voted in the referendum. Its findings are due to be announced by Sky News soon after polling stations close at 10 p.m. (2100 GMT).

This means YouGov will be the de facto exit poll, and in the absence of official exit polls, the YouGov survey will be closely watched by FX traders who will not be sleeping much if at all tomorrow night.

Where it gets murky is that the online survey will be drawn from a panel of people who have previously been polled by YouGov about their voting intentions and who have agreed to share their decision once they have voted, a spokesman for YouGov said. The figures will be weighted for a number of factors, he added, declining to comment further on specifics. No figure for the number of people to be surveyed was immediately available.

One thing is clear: the market will impute the most recent precedent, as well as the sharp drop in Leave "momentum" as an indication of what will happen, which means that the just released lead of 51% for Remain will be seen as suggestive of what will happen tomorrow when YouGov releases its quasi-exit poll in less than 12 hours.

As Reuters adds, YouGov will be "hoping to repeat its successful prediction of the 2014 Scottish independence vote." Back in 2014, a YouGov poll released as Scottish polling stations closed came very close to accurately predicting the result of Scotland's independence referendum. That poll showed the campaign against independence winning with 54 percent of the vote. The official result gave the anti-independence campaign 55.3 percent of the vote.

However, while it was successful in 2014, it was hugely mistaken in 2015. YouGov and other major pollsters failed to predict the outcome of Britain's 2015 parliamentary election. Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives won it with a comfortable, albeit slim, majority, despite months of opinion polls showing them and the main opposition Labour Party running neck-and-neck.

The event was labelled a "fiasco" for pollsters and was followed by an inquiry by the British Polling Council. Only one exit poll was close to being right.

So will 2016 be another "2014" success story or a "2015" fiasco? Judging by the surge in cable, which just exploded to a fresh 2016 high of 1.48 (and briefly rising above it), which as a reminder was the "extreme print" level that Citi predicted cable would hit in case of a Remain vitory...

 

... the market - if only for now - is 100% certain that a Brexit will not happen.

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swamp's picture

The globalists will not permit the peasants to leave.
The globalists cannot win without cheating at every turn.

johngaltfla's picture

BoEFRBundesbankBoJ have paid way too much with our blood to have one of their sheep stray too far.

This is a non-event IMHO unless there is a shocker.

Martial's picture

unless you factor in the "order out of chaos" problem-reaction-solution angle...i rememeber one of the chief architects of the EU saying they will NEED another crisis for further integration...basically calling for a POLITCAL union after said crisis, not just the temporary monetary one  (a US of Europe if you will) ...what a perfect chance to cause the chaos.

i_call_you_my_base's picture

That sort of occurred to me as well, although I was thinking that if the vote is leave and the british economy does crumble it would be a signal to other european countries that they shouldn't leave. This would also be more amenable to the EU because the Brits don't use the Euro.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Come on British UK, dig up deep into Pelvic cavity, pull down your testicle, and EXIT EU before you are crush along with your ball.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is read over own poor English and is write like UK is only possession of single testacle.

…Probably.

Whoa Dammit's picture

The shariaing of the sheep. And Boris, I don't think they have any--they've been clipped.

SoilMyselfRotten's picture

So what are the chnaces they use Bremain as an excuse to smash the paper gold price $50-100 tomorrow(isnt there also an options exp this week?)?

bigkahuna's picture

if they smash - I shall stack.

eforce's picture

Big up the remain vote until the last minute, remainians expecting an easy victory, market/businesses in position, then like in 2015... CRUSHED.

The bankers have two choices, let the EU collapse and be blamed, or let Brexit happen and blame it on that, it's the perfect alibi, I don't think Conservative victory was a coincidence nor do I think the referendum promise was either, the royal family is also Jewish iirc, if we stay in the EU, that will threaten them and Mr Rothschilds estates.

WarPony's picture

The two claimed choices are that both Reuters and the Associated Press are both Rothschild-owned subsidiaries, so expect only THE truth from their advertised polls.  s/

WordSmith2013's picture

http://themillenniumreport.com/2016/06/brexit-bombshell-poll-puts-leave-...

 

BREXIT BOMBSHELL: Poll puts Leave SEVEN POINTS ahead of Remain hours before referendum
GadExp's picture

Thank you Eforce.  This idea that the Brexit is not exactly what the globalists want is crazy.  The EU is on it's way out.  Global finance (as we know it) is on it's way out.  The globalists will step in and "save the day" with their new world currency....

 

Just another stepping stone on the path.

 

I can't waiit for the shooting to begin!!!

Amalgamated Tang's picture

Hey! Would someone answer Soil's question!!!!

Paper Chaser's picture

Yup.  And throw in VIX < 14, too.

Now that UK is remaining within EU, everything's coming up Milhouse... global markets/economy are safe as can be! Bc obviously Brexit is much more important than deteriorating US Data, or gaudy Chinese (Corporate) Debt levels still rising, or NIRP nonsense, or a FED that can't raise rates by even 25pts, or the ridiculous # of US Co's artificially propping up share prices by (continually missing on meaningless Revenue/Net Income projections but) nailing that all-important EPS target by incurring more debt to buyback shares............ Agh, whatever... ya Gold < 1100, VIX < 14 and S&P > 2150.  F'n fraudulent.

greenskeeper carl's picture

None of those things matter for the moment. There will be a brief 'everything is fixed and back to normal rally' that will last a couple days to a couple weeks, then those things will start to matter again. The monkey hammer will probably pay gold a visit as well.

Just remember, on a long enough timeline, this changes nothing. They will get their little rally, but all this does is temporarily maintain the status quo, which was looking increasingly tenuous anyway.

Poundsand's picture

Wait, you actually think that the people pulling a lever, or using touch screen, or checking a box is actually going to be recognized vote?  Sigh...

 

Vincent.Vega's picture

What makes sheeple believe they can "elect" anything/anyone? Slaves never elect their managers, directors or CEOs and other slave owners... but truly believe in "elections" without even knowing the meaning of the word.

Root EL in "election" comes from Elochim, and EL designates "god chosen people". Or, rather, "god" "chosen" "people". That's why goyim keep "electing" the pre-chosen ones.

This pathetic Dog and Pony show will be over soon. Verdict: BREXIT from EU? You FCUKing kidding? Who will bite the hand which is feeding them? UK won't survive a week without the EU/German slaves.

Freddie's picture

Leave was way ahead then the murder then the close polls before the vote.  The polls always tighten before they steal it.  Just like Austria.

The EU corruptionb is sicckening like the Clinton Foundation.

RockySpears's picture

Do not count us out just yet.  Here on the ground it feels completely different, the split is not even close.

 

65-35 in favour of out has been my prediction for a long time.  Ladbrokes (the Bookies) even confirmed this for me yesterday when it said "62% of bets in the referendum were for Out".  The odds tell a completely different story, but that is Bookies just making sure they do not lose money and is nothing to do with the actual likelihood of any given result.

 

I have 2 Boris A, and so does my wife, so don't worry,

 

RS

exartizo's picture

Yes.

Gold is likely headed a lot lower before it breaks north.

Look for gold down around the $920 - $970 mark before a reversal.

Bremain might be the match that lights the flame but the fan that feeds the flame is of broader origin.

thinkmoretalkless's picture

The U.K. Vote may be used as a narrative to monkey hammer gold if remain prevails, but the UK upcoming decision was not a catalyst for a $100 run up in the price of gold. I would think Yellen's demonstration that she is stuck with no options was more of a factor. Regardless these things are short term trading narratives with little effect on the looming inevitable day of reckoning.

The best Sun's picture

Whichever  "side"  "wins", we all

know the result was fixed.

That will confirm and telegraph that the

engineered collapse is coming soon or not.

And other things.

 

BarkingCat's picture

That's optimistic. 

Normally cunts don't have testicles. 

BC6's picture

“Why do people say "grow some balls"? Balls are weak and sensitive. If you wanna be tough, grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding.” 
Betty White

Dormouse's picture

Will the wonders of modern science never cease? British researchers announced today that they are growing a new vagina for a UK man who lost his from cervical cancer on his forehead of all places. Once the vagina reached maturity and begins to menstruate, it will be surgically removed from his forehead and incerted in what will be a marathon procedure exceeding 18hours and requiring the aid of over 150 specialists from around the world.

ACES FULL's picture

Humanity is truly fucked.

Supafly's picture

I turned my hand into a vagina and did it all by myself.

Lanka's picture

Great idea, the forehead is closer to the nerve center (the supposed brain); orgasms are all mental anyway.

Dancing Disraeli's picture

Balls are where testosterone is produced.

Whatta's picture

Normally cunts don't have testicles. 

Criminal Hillary Clinton excluded.

valley chick's picture

After 4 years 48 weeks on ZH, I have come to the conclussion there are no balls globally.

Freddie's picture

Balls? Russians, Syrian military, Hezbollah and DPR/LPR (Donetsk and Lughansk).  DPR/LPR are fighting the Soros State Dept zio Nazis in the Ukraine.

Here is balls (I have posted this more than a few times).  Givi not giving a shit during Zazi zio Kiev Grad attack on civilian areas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7djfXfMokWw

Here is another one - Alexander Prokhorenko -

Trapped Russian soldier calls airstrike on himself to kill ISIS fighters

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTcG22YxmKM

Dude-dude's picture

You either surf or you fight...  Colonel Kilgore

All Risk No Reward's picture

The problem isn't "lack of balls," per se, it is the lack of will power to get monetarily forked by the Debt-Money Monopolist private banking cartel.

Name one alternative media source that consistently calls out the Debt-Money Monopolists and their fraudulent debt-money schemes to impoverish Muppets?

NOT ONE! There are a handful (probably less than 5) that pound the comments section, but the article writers cower from reality.

Debt-money systems are FRAUDS, people!

Debt-Money Inequality: Why are the rich getting richer?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCegQVljdY

Poverty - Debt Is a Feature, Not a Bug
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juQc0rLdB-E

How To Be a Crook
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oHbwdNcHbc

Renaissance 2.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96c2wXcNA7A

Debunking Money
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_yh4-Zi92Q

Krugman to Lietaer: "Never touch the money system!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6nL9elK0EY

"You are killing yourself academically if you touch the money system."
~Paul Krugman

“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”
? Napoléon Bonaparte

AssN9's picture

Other testicle with pension fund.

ZerOhead's picture

You are correct... chaos is what they need, and chaos is what they will get. Current expectations are that "remain" will win so that sets up the potential for a catastrophic market collapse when the expected vote to remain comes up an unexpected "leave" instead.

First of all the Brexit referendum itself is a huge joke since it is only an advisory referendum which is not legally binding on the UK gov at all. The pro-Remain MPs will almost certainly use their sizable majority in the House of Commons (454 to 147) to block any actual moves to leave the EU common market under any circumstance anyway.

To confuse matters more... the "leave" politicians were talking about a ten year transition to a Norwegian 'solution' where officially they are out but in reality they are still mostly in.

The Norwegian solution works like this...


"While the Norwegian parliament has to approve all new legislation which has "significant new obligations", this has been widely supported and usually uncontested; between 1992 and 2011, 92% of EU laws were approved unanimously, and most of the rest by a broad majority.[5]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway%E2%80%93European_Union_relations

 

The UK pound and economy is wired to collapse just as surely as WTC1 and WTC2. Conclusion? Brexit wins and TSHTF hard on the UK.

Lore's picture

Quite right.  This thing has no teeth!  It's just more pageantry. Why is Tyler distracted?  Reality check:

Parliament doesn't actually have to bring Britain out of the EU if the public votes for it

A vote for Brexit will not be determinative of whether the UK will leave the EU. That potential outcome comes down to the political decisions which then follow before the Article 50 notification. The policy of the government (if not of all of its ministers) is to remain in the EU. The UK government may thereby seek to put off the Article 50 notification, regardless of political pressure and conventional wisdom.

 

This has to go down as one of the largest pieces of small print in British political history.

 

The overwhelming majority of the British public is probably totally unaware of this legislative loophole. As far as most Brits understand, Britain will no longer be an EU member if Leave wins next week's referendum.

Oldwood's picture

Its not always easy to maintain the pretense of democracy. Leadership must both believe they represent the people and simultaneously believe that the people they represent are simply stupid if they do not agree.

someup-somedown's picture

Yes. Pretense is a good word for voting.  Let's say a vote of 51% to 49% (either way) eventuates.

That means that the voting preference of 49% of the population is ignored.

But the pretense is that everyone got to vote, so therefore they had their say....

Voting is a farce

 

thinkmoretalkless's picture

It is a trading narrative. We "okie doked" some folks ( to quote a real intellectual )

WarPony's picture

Exactly, "Kabuki theatre" for a distraction effect - whatever jerks the chain.  Drama meet puts and calls, it's good for business and, I own your narrative, signed, your lord and master, Reuters and the Associated Press, family-owned subsidiaries of the Redsheild clan.

saulysw's picture

OXI

This feels like the Greek referendum, which was all smoke and hot air. If the people happen to vote the way TPTB want, great. If not, it will be ignored.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015

 

RockySpears's picture

It is only the RESULT that is important.

  For the rest of the EU, a Brexit vote gives all the others the push they need to start their own exit schemes.

The minimum time for Brexit completion is 2 years, so there is no rush to sort out the finer detail.  In the meantime France is already aflame, the Nordics are collapsing and Germany is totally messed up by foreigners.  

Do not be surprised if Spain votes against the EU this weekend (26th June), Italy collapses and Greece simple folds its hand and does not want to play anymore.

Popcorn and beer, Gentlemen.  Popcorn and Beer.

(assuming you have prepared yourselves well that is)

 

RS

ParanoidSquirrel's picture

You would hope that if "Exit" won and the government refused to abide by the vote, people would finally wake up and revolt over the government not listening to the people..... oh well.... one can "hope", right?