It's All Over As "Leave" Wins Brexit Referendum: Markets Everywhere Are Crashing

Tyler Durden's picture

 

Final update to this historic post, just to make it official :

  • BREXIT VOTE-LEAVE HAS WON MORE THAN 16.784 MLN VOTES, ENOUGH TO GUARANTEE VICTORY IN EU REFERENDUM - BBC FIGURES

* * *

Update 12:15 PM - Turmoil...

 

Dow Futures are down 800 points from the post-close highs...

 

As Cable crashes to 30 year lows...

 

And Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows...

This is the 2nd biggest percentage drop in 10Y Yields ever...

 

Update 11:50 PM: And now comes the global market panic:

  • S&P 500 FUTURES TUMBLE 4.5 PERCENT, DOWN 99 POINTS
  • GOLD 1350
  • TREASURIES EXTEND GAIN; 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS BELOW 1.50%, 12 BPS FROM ALL TIME LOW
  • JAPAN'S 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.215%
  • CIRCUIT BREAKER KICKS IN FOR NIKKEI FUTURES, TRADING HALTED FOR  10 MINS FOR JAPAN STOCK FUTURES
  • INDIA RBI SAID TO SELL DOLLARS TO CURB RUPEE'S DROP: TRADERS
  • EUR/CHF EXTENDS DROP BELOW 1.0700, FIRST TIME SINCE AUG. 2015

* * *

Update 11:38 PM: According to ITV, it's all over: Leave has won the referendum.

 

And BBC  and Sky both just called it too.  And now, the crying begins.

* * *

Update 11:21 PM: ITV's latest odds for a Leave victory rise to 85%

* * *

Update 11:17 PM: With two thirds of areas reporting, Leave has the lead with 51.5% of the vote, or 10,996,500 to 10,363,816

* * *

Update 11:15 PM: the panic goes global. Nikkei just reported that at 13:15 local time, Japan's finmin Taro Aso will hold a press conference:

 

Update 11:00 PM: Unprecedented moves in markets as the POUND DROPS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1985

* * *

Update 10:56 PM: Every safe haven is being aggressively bid, even the one which until yesterday was left for dead. Yes, bitcoin is soaring,

* * *

Update 10:52 PM: And now China is starting to turmoil, with the USDCNH soaring to 6.63, while the onshore Yuan is crashing to the lowest level since January 2011.

* * *

Update 10:50 PM: Central Banks and finance officials are starting to panic

  • ASAKAWA: WILL SPEAK TO MINISTER, TAKE NECESSARY STEPS

 

* * *

Update 10:41PM : ITV latest odd for Leave: 80%

Markets are Turmoiling...biggest yield collapse in 5Y

 

erasing all post-Cox losses...

 

As Cable drops to 7 year lows...

 

And USDJPY has crashed to a 99 handle!!!! NKY is down 1800points...

 

* * *

Update 10.32:  The latest total count:

  • LEAVE: 6,947,780
  • REMAIN: 6,581,905

This puts leave in the lead with 51.3% of the vote

This is the biggest single-day drop in Cable...ever

Update 10:27PM: And another city that was supposed to be solidly in the Remain camp, Sheffield, has just turned to Leave:

  • LEAVE: 136,018
  • REMAIN: 130,735

Markets just took another leg down... Cable is down almost 6%

 

And the collapse contagion is spreading...NKY down 1000 points

* * *

Update 10:17 PM: ITV reporting that Leave probability odds are now 75%

  • ITV NEWS RESULTS ANALYSIS: 75% PROBABILITY OF LEAVE TO WIN

 

While Ladbrokes once again has Leave favorite at 4/6 with Remain 11/10

* * *

Update: 10:11 PM: Odds of "Remain" plunge to zero...

* * *

Update 9:53 PM: Leave has regained the total lead with some 50.2% of the vote, or 3,453,618 vs 3,420,957

 

* * *

All major "risk-on" markets have collapsed back to the "Jo Cox" death lows...

 

Dow Futures initial drop was 550 points...

 

And post-US-Close, things are not panning out for the "everything is awesome" crowd...

 

* * *

Update 9:40 PM: The selling panic has moderated somewhat as the vote tally moves to the south, and after Remain has regained a modest lead of 51.1%. One can see it in sterling, which has rebounded 500 pips off the lows:

* * *

Update 9:34 PM: The latest total:

  • U.K. VOTES: REMAIN 50.7% LEAVE 49.3% AFTER 64 OF 382 DECLARE:PA

Or, as some called it, on a knife's edge

* * *

Update 9:28 PM:  After a solid win for Remain in Glasgow, where it got 66.6% of the vote, Leave's odds have declined somewhat to Even vs 8/11 for remain.

* * *

Update 9:13 PM: And just like that Leave is now the bookies favorite, with 7/4 odds to Leave and 2/5 odds to Stay, or just over 70%

* * *

Update 9:10 PM:  Another big dtop for Sterling, which is plunging following news that Swansea, where Remain was expected to win, has instead lost 51.5% 48.%. And cable crashes.

And now chaos everywhere, as S&P futures tumble 2.5%, FTSE is plunging, the USD is surging 1.1%, Gold is up nearly $30 and so on

* * *

Update 9:01 PM; The Latest Ladbrokes figures are shocking:

  • 4/6 REMAIN; 
  • 11/10 LEAVE

This means Leave is almost 50% odds now, after being 11% earlier today.

* * *

Update 8:56 PM: The City of London just voted and here is the result

  • Remain: 78.3% (3,912)
  • Leave: 21.7% (1,087)

Update 8:26 PM: Some more votes from secondary cities:

Kettering:

  • Remain: 39.0%
  • Leave: 61.0%

Lagan Valley:

  • Remain: 46.9%
  • Leave: 53.1%

Dundee City:

  • Remain: 59.8%
  • Leave: 40.2%

South Tyneside:

  •  Remain: 38.0%
  • Leave: 62.0%

West Dunbartonshire:

  • Remain: 62.0%
  • Leave: 38.0%

* * *

Update 8:14 PM: Just a comic interlude this time, but it appears that none other than Lindsay Lohan is also fascinated by what will happen to Brexit tonight:

* * *

Update 7:55 PM: Swindon is the next big city, and as expected, the Leave campaign won by a 10% lead, 55% to 45%, roughly in line with what was expected. Markets roughly unchanged following these news, with GBPUSD in the mid-1.45 and ES futures -9 to 2097.

* * *

Update 7:20 PM  The Sunderland results are in and it's a Leave tsunami with Leave crushing Remain  in a 61% to 39% vote

  • Remain: 51,930, or 39%
  • Leave 82,394, or 61%

Following the news Sterling imploded, plunging an unprecedented 700 pips from its highs of 1.50, dropping as much as 1.43 before rebounding modestly.

 

Ladbrokes odds jumped to 38% for Leave on the news after hitting 11% earlier in the day.

* * *

Update 7:13 PM: Suddenly Leave odds are surging

And just like that, Leave's odds have more than doubled:

 

Update 7:00 PM: And a shocker already from Newcastle. As we noted earlier, Newcastle was supposed to have a comfortable 12 point leads for Remain. However, moments ago the official results came out and while Remain did in fact vote for Remain, it won by the smallest possible margin with 51% voting to Remain and 49% voting to Leave, or 65,404 REMAIN vs 63,598 LEAVE.

As noted, this was a far smaller victory than expected, and as a result Sterling has tumbled nearly 200 pips from the session highs, and has wiped out all intraday gains.

* * *

Until this point, it was all polling, hearsay, speculation and rumors. Now, we finally have the first official results. We will update this post with incremental data as long as a clear picture emerges.

The first official result, Gibraltar, has been a whopping victory for Remain with 19,322 voting to Remain and only 823 to leave.

Some additional details from the BBC:

However a small hiccup may have emerged in the expected Bremain steamrolling, when moments ago the BBC said that Newcastle is shaping up as a marginal win for Remain, which as BBC adds appears to be worse than expected based on initial polls which had suggested a far stronger showing for Remain.

And the biggest surprise: moments ago Opinium may have flipped everything on its head when moments ago it reported that Leave is 45% and Remain is 44%:

Sterling has lost 100 pips on the news, and ES was now only up 4.5 on the session.

* * *

Continuing coverage

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FiatFapper's picture

Fuck all you cunts saying 'People are afraid of change' and 'Dance you fucking puppets!'.

I'm English and haven't voted for 25 years, but today I voted [Leave], I even marked my cross using the ballot box as a table in full view of the officers and people behind, I'm not ashamed in showing my choice; not all of us are puppets.

I was talking to the officers and they said in all their years no one has ever asked for a pen (they give you pencils to mark your choice) and they said today a number of people used pens; so others are slowly realising how easily rigged votes are swayed...that's a small step across the giant chasm of the illusion of democracy.

erkme73's picture

Are any of the votes electronic?  

Supernova Born's picture

The whole thing was a sideshow.

eforce's picture

Gibraltar is full of rich cunts and many that rely heavily on the EU and/or fear what Spain will do if we leave the EU.

Hence they vote Remain.

Supernova Born's picture

Voting away your vote.

Idiocracy reaches singularity.

whoflungdung's picture
One of the best articles on Brexit? EU Basics – Your Guide to the UK Referendum on EU Membership https://professorwerner.wordpress.com/2016/06/21/eu-basics-your-guide-to-the-uk-referendum-on-eu-membership/ After all the EU was a USGov/CIA set-up right from the start. The history of the EU beginnings can be read here: https://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/people/aldrich/publications/oss_... If the Brits have any sense they'd leave.
ACP's picture

I can hear the corrupt pollsters now..."Leave's slightly ahead! Stuff the ballots you bloody wankers!"

FreezeThese's picture
FreezeThese (not verified) ACP Jun 23, 2016 6:33 PM

If y'all pull this off I'm coming to visit

Supernova Born's picture

Best first post in a thread in a long time.

I hope Brexit prevails.

I think gold will move ahead of the count. Brexit is good for gold and vice versa.

 

 

AVmaster's picture

Hell yea, I'll come to britain for a vacation or two if they leave.

 

At least I know my money won't eventually end up in the germans pockets to be disbursed to some lowlife muzzie later...

WordSmith2013's picture

Nothing else throws a wrench into the Globalist’s machinery like a BREXIT

 

http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=40473

Troy Ounce's picture

 

Just wait for the postal votes

Save_America1st's picture

well so far it sure looks like the Scots are the biggest bunch of worthless dried up scumbag pussies.  So much for the old Braveheart legend.  They've completely rolled over.  Bitchez

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

DOW futures currently in a -600 tailspin.  Gold "paper" still being held under 1300 by the Crimex.  The Monkeys are hammering overtime tonight, bitchez.

Hope this vote stays solid for the Brexit.  But I wouldn't fuckin' trust the bean counters at the end of the day, if ya know what I mean.

thesonandheir's picture

FAO YANKS

 

We have shown you how to do it.

 

Now you need to grow a set and carry this on.

 

FUCK THE EU!

FUCK THE BANKSTERS!

FUCK HILLARY CLINTON!

Citxmech's picture

Holy fucking shit!  I am completely (and happily) shocked.

Hazzah, Britons!

Antifaschistische's picture

I'm wondering if the new London Mayor was the straw that broke the camel's back.

ALLAH ALLAH AKBAR!!!

Ms. Erable's picture

And I really hope that this drives wooden stakes through the hearts of Soros, Osborne and Rothschild - or at least gives them serious, debilitating strokes.

Dsyno's picture

Kudos to Britain!

Unfortunately, you know the EU isn't going down without a fight. The EU is going to do everything in its power to make it painful for Britain, especially to dissuade other countries in the EU from leaving.

Fuck the EU.

mkkby's picture

It doesn't matter what the EU does, or what elites do to negate the people's choice.  This proves people are FINALLY WAKING THE FUCK UP.

Now the question is, why do nearly half of all britons still want to be part of that globalist venus fly trap?

Next, Americans must throw out the cunt hilldebeast and elect TRUMP.  One more fuck you to the globalists.

Dapper Dan's picture

Britain's referendum doesn't automatically trigger an exit from the European Union, which has led a few commentators to suggest that lawmakers might simply decide to ignore or slow-ball the process.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6ce4a3fd7866451db0fd0ef83468435b/now-brit...


wide mouth kid's picture

that's what they say; this still isn't over by a long shot.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I haven't been so slap-happy in a looong time, as I am to have been wrong about the outcome of this vote.

You DO realize, if the Bremain side had won, it would have been the first time since the Romans, that the UK would have been under foreign rule.  In fact, even the Romans never conquered Scotland, so it would have been unprecedented in recorded history.

Freddie's picture

The UK along with the colonies and former colonies are still under Red Shield rule and Operation Gladio.

I get your point.  The Romans at least built a lot of good stuff.

I am very happy for the English and kudos to the Brexit voters. 

I am thinking either:

1. It was to hard to steal.

2. The global economic reboot started tonight.

neutrino3's picture

Same here. Is it possibile? Our "bada-blaburing" here and elsware was actualy a buterfly ignition to recent Bruricane.

We need future two experiments to prove the theory.

Dave Thomas's picture

When Krugman smiles like a donut we win!

neutrino3's picture

Majstore ... you just explained the whole situation with only one symbol.

Tarzan's picture

I'm grinning ear to ear, just read this, and want so bad to laugh out loud, but I'm at work.

I didn't realize until reading it this week that Britain still uses paper ballots. Makes cheating a bit harder when there are physical ballot for contested recounts.

I'm still convinced Obama won his second term through fraudualent electronic vote counts.

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=2507434&page=1

hedgeless_horseman's picture

See, we do agree on some things.

Dugald's picture

 

Paper ballot papers and PENCILS......just so easy to erase and corrupt and I think

that is what will happen, hell why do you think they use pencils.......

Tarzan's picture

Another fact I learned about the Britts voting laws is you can bring your own black pen, and mark it in ink.

Google it, there were campaigns warning people to do so, to prevent just that.  They also warned to press hard if you use a pencil, makes it hard to erase.

DutchResistance's picture

Yeah, that was rigged. I heard in one pro Obama precinct in PA, he got 100% of the votes.  One could argue that there are district of that preference, if so at least a dozen of the drugged or drunk ones would push the wrong button.  

 

bigkahuna's picture

Looks like Britania is leading the way on this... Feels like they have made their time now, we need to make our time now.

May the banksters and their political/industrial/military lackies meet their god lucifer soon....how about now.

PTR's picture

Check.

Check.

Eehhhh, I'll rather try to copulate with a rabid shark.

Freddie's picture

+1 million

I remember back in the day when the establishment in the UK went into full terror mode when The Sex Pistols came out and John Lydon aka Johnny Rotten actually terrified the power structure. The Sex Pistols sounded a lot like ZH posters.  Despising the corrupt power structure with very well tten songs.

John said at one point he thought they would hang him at Traitor's Gate.

Here is Traitor's Gate and time to start hanging the vermin in the UK like Cameron, Blair and the rest of the lot. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traitors%27_Gate

I cannot stand politicians but top marks for Farage and Boris.  Awesome job by the English people.

 

swamp's picture

The scottish are shriveled dicks. Unbelievable voting to be enslaved.

Tarzan's picture

The Scotts have good reason not to trust England.  Pitty they trust either.

RedDwarf's picture

What is so funny about them voting to remain is that not too long ago they voted to NOT secede from the UK.  So now they got no complaint about being forced to go along with the majority rule of the rest of Britain.

Diplodicus Rex's picture

SA1, I am a Scot and I would dearly love to contradict you, but I can't. Over the last 30 years, the politicians have turned a nation of once proud, independent, forthright, intelligent people into welfare-addicted marxists. The transition is almost complete. Princess Nicola (an open anti-royalist) lives a life of royalty with an entire entourage to dress her in fine clothes, feed her honey and plump her pillows. She will use the results of yesterday's EU referendum to call for another Scottish Independence Referendum with the stated objective of re-joining her marxist, globalist overlords in the EU. Scotland is not out of the woods yet. We could be headed for a disaster if the call for another Scottish independence referendum gains traction.

UndroppedClanger's picture

They're already in - they get sent in earlier, makes things tidier I guess.

The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) WordSmith2013 Jun 23, 2016 9:56 PM

At what time (EDT) does the fat lady sing?

Phuk u's picture

7am British time, 2am Eastern, 11pm Western and market turmoil an hour later.

 

asteroids's picture

"I suggest you panic" Margin Clerks are being called in early. Expect a really really fun weekend.

BeanusCountus's picture

I'll overlook the food, but if you Brits restore my hope in Democracy I'm coming as well.

Citxmech's picture

If the Brexit wins, I will become Jack's complete and utter surprise!

Save_America1st's picture

I saw what you did there...nice Fight Club reference ;-)  haha