Is Brexit The First Of Many Dominoes? A Few Charts

Tyler Durden's picture
Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

 

Is Brexit the First of Many Dominoes?

Markets have been turned upside down by a surprise Brexit result and the resignation of David Cameron. While there is looming uncertainty around how this will affect the United Kingdom and Europe from an economic perspective, it might be just the tip of the iceberg in terms of long-run consequences.

A Brexit opens the door for future events that would be previously unfathomable by popular opinion, and it gives vital ammunition to groups that are seeking their own referendums for independence.

Unwilling Passengers?

As the UK ship distances itself from European docks, there are two passengers that may have been more comfortable remaining on shore.

While England and Wales voted to “Leave” with 53.4% and 52.5% respectively, Scotland and Northern Ireland were both firmly in “Remain” territory. Scotland, which previously held its own independence referendum in 2014, voted overwhelmingly to have the UK remain in the EU with a 62% vote. Northern Ireland had a similar sentiment with 55.8% voting “Remain”.

Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said today that a second independence referendum for Scotland is “highly likely”. She feels Scotland was taken out of the EU against its own will, and that Scottish independence is worth revisiting.

Meanwhile, Northern Ireland has echoed these calls, instead potentially looking at voting on a united Ireland. Northern Ireland is the only country in the UK that shares a land border with a country in the EU.

Others Dominoes

The Brexit result has energized other populist movements across the European Union. Anti-immigration leaders such as Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen have ratcheted up cries for their own independence votes:

However, it is not just people on the fringe that are interested in revisiting EU membership. Even before the Brexit result, a poll by Ipsos Mori showed that the majority of people in France in Italy want to at least have a referendum on leaving:

Meanwhile, over 40% of Swedes, Poles, and Belgians are in the same boat.

Now that Brexit is a thing, will these numbers trend higher? What will be the next domino to fall?

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CashCowEquity's picture

Let them all "opt out"

A Moose's picture

The beginning of the long awaited victory of nationalism over globalism.

Handful of Dust's picture

I bet Cape Breton will gladly accpet all those Brits who lost the vote to the Brexit voters. I hope they still have room for Whoopi Goldberger, Sharpton, and so on when The Donald wins the USA presidency and makes America great again!

 

Right now online polls show Trump ahead 49% to Hitlery's 31% with the others undecided. But everyone I know is not relying on polls and for sure voting in November.

 

 

Escrava Isaura's picture

Germany one of the dominoes?

It can’t be.

Germany is the one holding the dominoes from falling; alongside Brussels.

 

peddling-fiction's picture

Government and Deep State yes, but German people want out and for the American occupation to be over.

https://justice4germans.com/2013/07/22/world-war-ii-never-ended-for-germ...

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

German elite is benefit from centralize monetary regime of EU. Imagine, can print money from nothing like Federal Reserve. That is all disappear when each Europe nation state economy is justify value of currency by own GDP. End of infinite fiat money in Europe.

…but what is Boris know!?

santafe's picture

There's a domino that SHOULD FALL NEXT, which would BRING PEACE to the world.
http://goo.gl/l6d22d

philipat's picture

The anti-democratic and totally unaccountable EU clearly isn't working. It either reforms or it won't survive. The model that the European peoples voted for (To the extent that they were ever asked) was a group of sovereign states, each with its own language and distinct culture freely trading together. NOT a united states of Europe complete with unelected unaccountable "leadership", a flag, an anthem, a Parliament, a central bank et al. And shortly an armed forces. If the original model were to be be re-installed, the EU will survive, and would include the UK. If not, it won't.

In the specific cases of Scotland and Northern Irelend, there are differences. In the case of Northern Ireland, under the principle of self-determination, should Northern Ireland wish to RE-unite with the catholic Republic, that is their right. As the Republic is an independent member of the EU already, in doing so, Northern Ireland would thus remain within the EU. However, the Unionist faction have time and time again voted against that and there is no evidence to suggest that it would be any different now.

In the case of Scotland seceding from the UK, there is no guarantee that the EU would automatically accept Scotland as a member state. Many member states, such as Spain, have their own secession issues and would not readily support the principle of "break away" provinces being automatically given EU membership as independent. sovereign states. So Scotland runs the risk of being left out in the cold as an idependent sovereign state without EU membership. The UK has already made it clear that should Scotland decide to secede it would NOT be able to continue to use the GBP, and even if it did, would it truly be independent if it remained dependent on the BOE for monetary ploicy? And could it survive economically in such circumstances without the present fiscal transfers from London?

But if those directions are what the peoples of Northern Ireland and Scotland wish to travel, I say good luck to them and go for it. It would be yet another nail in the coffin of the NWO.

Pinto Currency's picture

 

Break it up.

Starve half the population.

Make them beg to bring at all back bigger and more controlled than ever.

JPMorgan's picture

The British people are not built that way, they will not give in to tyranny or blackmail, they would rather suffer.

Fisherman Blue's picture

I would say the same plus 10 for Americans except the FSA now out numbers the middle class tax payer. Big difference thought is guns, lots of guns.

A82EBA's picture

Why did they wait this long

Firepower's picture

Make them beg to bring at all back bigger and more controlled than ever!!

 

deerp.

They done it already - twice!

Deeetroit.

Las Venezuezeuzeuela, Si!!

deeerp!!!

Ghordius's picture

good comment, but you lost me at "NWO"

which side is it? if "Scotland runs the risk of being left out in the cold as an idependent sovereign state without EU membership"?

meanwhile, that old lie: "The anti-democratic and totally unaccountable EU"

evidence: BreXit Referendum. the EU is a club with an exit door

evidence: Nigel Farage. elected Member of the European Parliament. leader of UKIP, a party that was elected in the EU P thanks to the proportional voting method, and so getting an european voice denied for a long time in the UK because of the FPTP voting method. victor of the referendum

evidence: the most important British representative in the most powerful and decision making EU body, the EU Council, has resigned: PM Cameron

evidence: the second most important British representative in the administrative EU body, the EU commission, has resigned: the EU Commissioner Baron Hill. The British government will have to appoint a new one, and the elected EU Parliament will have to approve or reject him

it's an old lie: "The anti-democratic and totally unaccountable EU"

The British vote in the EU Council was done by Prime Minister Cameron, a recallable agent of the elected British Parliament, subject to accounting

The British vote in the EU Commission was done by Lord Hill, a recallable agent of the British government, a recallable agent of the British P

The British vote in the elected EU Parliament is still done, including by the UKIP fraction there

yes, the EU is complex. yes, it has elements of a confederational setup. not everybody likes or dislikes the same things about the EU

but this, is an old lie: "The anti-democratic and totally unaccountable EU"

evidence: BreXit. evidence: Cameron. evidence: Lord Hill. evidence: Nigel Farage and UKIP

back to basics's picture

Gordo, you are full of shit as usual. 

The EU has an exit door ONLY if you are not using the euro. Had the UK been using the euro, the ECB would do its part in causing panic by removing liquidity and suffocating the British economy. Then the Brits would be brought back into line.

I know you just parrot stuff on here but haven't you read anything about the ECB's role in removing Berlusconi and the shutting down of the banks in Greece?

You should, it would give ypu more material to parrot and show us all how clever you really are. 

Escrava Isaura's picture

back to basics, very  accurate post.

philipat's picture

So who elects the European Commission and what powers does the European Parliament actually have in reality other than as a rubber stamp? We don't need ANY of it, just scrap it all and return to a European free trade area.

As for democracy within the EU, the inimicable Mr Juncker, (he who also famously said "when it gets serious you have to lie") recently stated, and I quote: "There can be no democratic choice against European treaties".

I rest my case.

 

ThirdWorldDude's picture

Philip, by quoting Juncker you just provided the answer to why the only way to exit the EU is violent. Just because Britain voted to exit doesn't mean it will be allowed to.

At best, we have two bumpy years ahead; at worst, the timespan, possibilities and combinatorics are countless...

philipat's picture

Not to mention sabotage from within the UK establishment and the NWO crowd. Yes, it will be a rocky road and a difficult few years but when the financial crash comes (Brexit might have accelerated the onset but it was coming anyway) it will be a difficult few years irrespective. But I believe in the UK and that it is up to the task. I also firmly believe that 5-10 years from now, we will look back on this day as being the best decision we ever made.

By the way, thanks for the helpful advice Mr Obama but f**k you....

sixsigma cygnusatratus's picture

If it dissolves further, last one out the door holding Euros is screwed.

philipat's picture

And, perhaps more importantly, who would be responsible for the EUR denominated "assets" of the ECB which, at that time, would probably be worth no more than 10 cents on the Euro?

Escrava Isaura's picture

If America is to leave Germany, Germany would still have to hold to the Union and Euro. If Germany loses that, Germany economy will crash in less than 24 hours.

 

An Italian and French car would be half of the price of a comparable German car.

 

Germany economy would collapse if Europe is to abandon the Euro. So would America, if the dollar is no longer the global reserve/Petrodollar currency.

 

monk27's picture

The Germans will opt out the moment they'll realize that they ALONE will end up paying to support the whole scam. Not a second earlier, not a minute later... That might happen sooner than most would believe, as every other EU country is quickly running out of money.

Escrava Isaura's picture

You got it wrong. Germany is not sustaining anyone. Euro is sustaining Germany.

 

Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Yes, this is a big problem, the UK's financial contribution (£8.5bn nett) will have to be made up by the other members mostly by Germany, France and Italy that will only speed up a clamour for more referendums. This shit show is only getting started. Did anyone else see Merkel on the TV over the weekend she looks like someone who has the weight of Europe on her shoulders, that's because she has; DB might have blown up as well.

back to basics's picture

She doesn't give two shits about Europe. All she cares about is maintaining a currency regime that has given Germany record low unemployment while Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and France are experiencing record highs, not to mention an entire lost generation of youth.

This set up allows Germany to impose their hegemony on the rest of Europe. That's all she gives a shit about. 

Escrava Isaura's picture

back to basics, another precise post.

 

It’s astonishing, but not surprising for me, that most Hedgers, after years here, still don’t get it; still misses the role of the money system while parroting nonsense “isms”. Some commentators, perhaps, as propaganda to mislead the naives.

   

Most Europeans remind me of this quote: “The naive doesn’t see the danger until it is at his throat.” — Noam Chomsky

 

http://www.sovereignmoney.eu/what-is-sovereign-money

Killdo's picture

I spent 3 months in Berlin last summer. I liked the Germans (especially women) but they looked as if they did not really understand what is happening in the world or in their own country. Kind of naive which I find sweet but that coudl also be dangerous. 

dogismycopilot's picture

Berliners are fucking clueless.

Checkpoint Charlie and the Wall are nothing but a tourist trap - they should put Angela Merkl's face on the Soviet side of CPC.

The Museum of Terror dealing with WWII and Hitler has shamed all of the Berliners into complete zombies. They all feel so guilty that they will happily let the Islamic invaders take them over while they go to the Opera, Sex Shows and Gay Pride parades and try to show the world how peaceful and loving they are.

Berliners have no idea the Islamic wave that is coming down the road towards them. Not a fucking scooby doo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2y8v8YzuwKA

Wile-E-Coyote's picture

That Jew Holocaust museum in the centre of Berlin should be filled in, talk about perpetually rubbing the Germans nose in it. I like Berlin, a vibrant city that rose from the ashes.

Kayman's picture

The common currency- the Euro - is great for Germany and a disaster for all the other European countries. Germany gets to undercut when they export while other European countries have to go cap-in-hand to borrow "surpluses" from Germany.

No wonder Germany is trying to keep the dominoes from falling.

And for Brussels- the only thing supporting the Belgium economy is from sucking taxes from other European countries to pay for nameless, faceless bureaucrats creating impediments to businesses.

Supafly's picture

Where did you see that poll?  Regretfully, I see cunt leading 47 to 33.

Escrava Isaura's picture

A Moose: The beginning of the long awaited victory of nationalism over globalism.

 

That’s right. Globalization is unsustainable. But call that a victory, I question your logic. Nationalism also has a dark and ugly side.

 

mutthead52's picture

Outside of the perpetually-cited Nazis, what other example of "dark side" of nationalism do you have? Russia today vs. Soviet imperialists? Brexit England vs British Empire? US of 40s and 50s vs the Killary neo-Imperialists? I know of NO other genuine nationalism not far preferable to globalist imperialism 

Escrava Isaura's picture

Because nationalism is a believe system, like religion. And, at the core of nationalism, is superiority. So, nationalism is prone to cause problems.

 

mutthead52's picture

In other words you have schoolboy propaganda ideology to back you but no real world historical examples. Just as I thought. "Dark side of nationalism" is neoliberal global imperialist propaganda taught at every grade of school with only the Nazis example to discourage the nationalism that opposes TTIPs, IMFs, BISs, NATOs, EUs  and other Bilderberg institutions. Wake up.

trader1's picture

there is a very contemporary example for the "dark side of nationalism".  it's called america in context of 9/11.

Kayman's picture

trader1

Not to spoil your parade but American Nationalism under Dubya wouldn't have invaded Iraq without the Globalist "coalition of the willing" beating the drum alongside Bush.

National interest is the interest of individual nations. Globalism is a collective with power at the center. That is why Globalism is the most dangerous.

 

trader1's picture

too much of any -ism isn't healthy.

 

Kayman's picture

trader1

Not to spoil your parade but American Nationalism under Dubya wouldn't have invaded Iraq without the Globalist "coalition of the willing" beating the drum alongside Bush.

National interest is the interest of individual nations. Globalism is a collective with power at the center. That is why Globalism is the most dangerous.

 

OverTheHedge's picture

Just off the top of my head, there was:

the Greek "grand adventure" in early 1920s into Turkey.

Any Balkan expedition by anyone you care to mention.

Napoleonic France

Spanish Armada

That's a few to be going on with - not a history student, so perhaps someone can come up with a more ordered list of nationalistic wars of aggression

Escrava Isaura's picture

Nationalistic systems are a heaven for dictators that will lead to Fascism, alongside economic collapse, that also leads to Fascism.

 

A nation that has any resemblance to democracy, democracy not structurally politically but within its population rights, nationalist systems would never flourish. They would be ridicule by their hypocrisies and lies.

 

Good luck with that, because any criticism of nationalist tendencies re are considered an insult to nationalists. Nationalism will, eventually, lead them to turn against each other.  

 

Dancing Disraeli's picture

Internationalism is also a belief system.  International Jewry financed and executed the "Russian revolution".  Many millions of non-Jewish Russians were subsequently killed, as these interlopers then tried to erase Russia (Change the flag, change the national anthem to 'The internationale', etc).

 

 

 

Escrava Isaura's picture

Welcome to the human race—our natural selection Darwinians.

 

And this natural selection will only exacerbate as less and less resources will be available.  Am not talking less resources because of economic strangulation, such as we see in Venezuela, Greece, or Ukraine. I am talking about not enough crude oil to sustain the grids—complexities.

 

When you see the canary in the oil dying—Saudi Arabia—you better be ready, because it’s too late by then.

 

I hope I am. But unlikely that I can make, because I have less than four years . 2020 crude oil decline, globally, in every oil field, is a sure thing.

 

Wile-E-Coyote's picture

The EU's function is to rub out national identity, they want homogenised uniformity. It's no accident they have let Europe be overrun by refugees it's all part of the process.

css1971's picture

"at the core of nationalism, is superiority"

No.

At the core of nationalism is family. This can be perverted of course, the goal of all nationalist authoritarians is to get everyone thinking that the nation is their family. That way they will make sacrifices for their vision.

Killdo's picture

Marine Le Pen on globalization:

…it’s a chase after something which puts in place the conditions of slavery. He who wins in the world of free trade where only the price of a product counts, is the person who goes the furthest to find the populations of workers who can be dealt with as slaves and paid as little as possible…and made to live in terrible conditions, and who pollute as much as possible, because caring for the environment costs a lot. He is the least demanding in terms of the safety of products as that adds to the cost of a company.

Thus, looking for the worst is not something that interests me. This is not the vision I have for society. 

Cloud9.5's picture

We all wanted to grow up in the Gene Roddenberry universe, absent pocket sized antimatter reactors, that future is not possible.  We have reached the limits of growth.  Desperate people are scrambling for the life boats.  As a result, the realization that there is not enough room in the safe havens is hastening the devolution.  Nationalism and tribalism are the default positons of failed globalism.  The four horsemen are saddling up.  The center cannot hold.

Escrava Isaura's picture

Leaving the horsemen aside, your post might be proved correct, in my opinion.