"Brexit" - What Goldman Thinks Will Happen Next, And Who Will Hold The Next Referendum

Tyler Durden's picture

Considering Goldman's abysmal forecasting track record continues to plumb new lows (just today it predicted a Spain victory of Italy, and an England victory over Iceland, both tragically wrong), the following should perhaps be best used as an indicator of what will not happen. Still, since there are a lot of remaining Brexit question, we hope that the following at least provides a useful framework for how to approach the :"known unknowns", if not so much the unknown unknown ones.

First, here is Goldman's answer on what happens next, in terms of timeline of key events, as well as bookmaker odds for the next conservative party leader.

Some points from Goldman here:

  • In the case of multiple candidates, Conservative Members of Parliament will choose a shortlist of two names for party leader. The winner will then be determined by a postal ballot of the wider members of the party.
  • According to Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, “there’s a reasonable case to be made that this should go to an election given that the prime minister resigned.”
  • More than 3 million people in the UK have signed a petition calling for a second EU referendum.
  • Over the next several weeks, leaders across the continent will assemble to address the political implications for the UK and the EU more broadly.

* * *

The next question: how will Scotland and Northern Ireland react. It shows the following chart as evidence of the pro-EU sentiment in these two states.

“A second referendum must be on the table. And it is on the table.”

     – Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, June 24, 2016

“Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon … threatened to block Britain’s exit from the EU, arguing that such a decision would need the consent of Scotland’s semiautonomous Parliament.”

     – The Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2016

“This outcome tonight dramatically changes the political landscape here in the north of Ireland, and we will be intensifying our case for the calling of a border poll.”

     – Sinn Féin Chairman Declan Kearney, June 24, 2016

On the other hand, as we reported earlier, a new poll has found that the majority in Scotland is against independence with more people (45%) saying Scotland should not conduct a second referendum, than those who said it should (42%).

* * *

Goldman then shows the split within the EU, with those on one side who are urging for a quick separation (Juncker, Hollande), and those who want a slow departure (Merkel, Cameron, Johnson). Merkel is winning.

* * *

Goldman's final question: is there risk of more referenda across the EU. The answer: a resounding yes, as can be seen in the table below.


“The UK has just initiated a movement that will not stop.”

      – National Front Leader Marine Le Pen, June 24, 2016


“Hurrah for the British! Now it’s our turn. Time for a Dutch referendum! #ByeByeEU”

      – Dutch Freedom Party Leader Geert Wilders, June 24, 2016

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Uncle Sugar's picture

Goldman or Gartman - who gives more consistently wrong predictions?

Rehab Willie's picture

cue Muppet with agape anus.

Atomizer's picture

If we can convince the peasants to revote, we regain the Muppet award. Fuck off Goldman Sachs. Eat your losses muppet. 

GooseShtepping Moron's picture

The West Midlands is the region from whence sprang some of the first chroniclers of early English history, including the Arthur Legend. It is the heart of the true England.

Freddie's picture

I thought Arthur was more one county up near Staffordshire in all those woods or maybe that was Robin Hood.  Part of my lot are from that area.   Another part might be celebrating the Azurri beating Spain.

I am not a big sports follower or TV watcher but the evil arseholes at Goldman Sachs picking Spain over Italy?  GS really sucks.  I even know that Italy's midfield this go round is possibly the best in the world - also known as BBC for their last name initials. 

Italy wisely left that African wanker MArio Baltoelli off the squad this time.  The last two times they should have left him off in favor of Luca Toni.

Now Italy wake up and get the F out of the EU!

Amish Hacker's picture

Reminiscent of US presidential election voting in 2000. Just keep counting the votes until the right side is ahead, then declare the counting over.

Charming Anarchist's picture

Oh, I get it!
Nothing will change until oodles and oodles of trivial issues are clarified, adjudicated, approved, environmental-retardedly assessed, re-written and obfuscuted from public scrutiny!

bunnyswanson's picture

Ummm...I think....The ending will go like this:  The $ financial support of the immigrants now in our country, legal or otherwise, the importation of poverty, and the massively under and unemployed/unemployable subsidized by the wrecking crews called our governments, will continue until the time when it does not.  The middle class, holding on with the skin of their teeth, now disarmed or arrested or under oppressive maneuvers designed to break the zest for life, and this massive subsidized class are going to war. 

The rug will be abruptly pulled out from under those in the USA who have relied on the free benefits when the laws are passed and the citizens are defenseless.  The now furious blacks and Latino of the anti-Trump variety, are going to come at us with bats, matches, in crowds of thousands, and they are going to leave an unwitnessed crime scene no one saw coming.

Thank those crazy fucks who think their sexual escapades should define them and precede in describing the person they are.  When they realize they are being set up and faced with love making Benghazi style, the end of any hope at all for a world not fueled by manufactured strife, the echoes from their primal scream will be the only sign of human life once on our planet.  Hellish plan.  Filled with murderous envy and revenge.  Stroked with madness cults tenderly and attentively strive to harvest.  Pay back.


Pink Floyd Money Visuals done well.

onmail1's picture

<-- listen to the shylock

who stole hearts of ppl

i mean

pensions, houses & moar


steelrules's picture

If I know my Hungarians I'd have to say they're next up to bat.

Mediocritas's picture

You know global markets are a complete joke when all this angst is over a simple referendum. Britain hasn't even left yet!

When they actually leave then I'll believe it's real. Who can forget what happened in Greece?

Disgusting banksters are trying to punish the plebs through market instability for daring, DARING, to challenge their little project.

robnume's picture

My favorite ZH topic, Der Golem Ballsachs. Der Golem Ballsachs are bookies, nothing more, nothing less. No insult meant to real live human bookies who serve a purpose on this planet. Die Der Golem Ballsachs! Move to the EU and start your own Ballsachs country/continent and  GET YOUR FUCKING SLIMY, GREASY HANDS AWAY FROM MY POCKETBOOK! EWWW, EWWW, Der Golem Ballsachs. That is one smelly Ballsach(s)!

Seb's picture

East Midlands shows up twice. One should be East of England.

GreatUncle's picture

Second referendum - NO! What we were voting on changed.

If we are voting again it is on 1  point alone IN or OUT

"To join the to be created EU Superstate removing all sovereignty in the process because that is what was finally declared yesterday."

The other referendum we won was on a loosely coupled group of individual nations, the result still stands but this not what it is going to be is it?

Now parliament will debate the previous referendum vote that now has no relevance now, the debate changed for them it is on this EU superstate.

Hidden under smoke and mirrors in the last referendum was alot of EU legislation, the military one we were all told was bullshit and for all americans on the EU side it is not your legal system neither of trial by jury like we have.

If the UK parliament says we are joing this while not being representative of the people civil war is justified all paths to negotiation end. You have your army of BREMAINS, BREXIT has theirs.