FEMA Contractor: Unrest After 395% Food Price Spike Coming Soon

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

Preparations by various cogs of the national security complex, including FEMA, indicate a coming worldwide food shortage - and a resulting crisis marked by extreme civil unrest around the globe.

As Motherboard noted of two reports published previously by CNA Corporation, but which largely escaped attention, the world’s food supply could be insufficient to maintain even current populations much further into the future. And the crisis — which several factors indicate may already be underway — may begin to worsen considerably as early as 2020.

Employing a desktop game simulation of the conditions of a global food shortage, titled “Food Chain Reaction,” CNA’s Institute for Public Research brought together “65 officials from the US, Europe, Africa, India, Brazil, and key multilateral and intergovernmental institutions,” Motherboard explained. And the Institute, which oversaw the simulation, “primarily provides scientific research services for the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency [FEMA].”

According to the website for Food Chain Reaction: A Global Food Security Game no commentary on Orwellian overtones needed — the “simulation and exercise intended to improve understanding of how governments, institutions, and private sector interests might interact to address a crisis in the global food system,” and took place in early November 2015.

“The scenario,” the description continues, “is set five years from today in a world where population growth, rapid urbanization, extreme weather and political crises combine to threaten global food security. The game’s players — high-level decision makers representing nations, international institutions, and the private sector — will collaborate, negotiate, make decisions, and confront tradeoffs while dealing with a chain reaction of consequences resulting from their actions.”

Participants received the briefing for the game through a mock TV newscast, which “challenged players to imagine a global food system under stress due to extreme weather and other environmental factors, urbanization and other demographic pressures, rising global food prices, and falling food stock levels.”

After receiving information specific to each participant’s national and regional geography and climate, players were also permitted to employ solutions to the game’s burgeoning food crisis scenario on “national, bilateral, and/or broadly cooperative” levels.

Divided into four rounds, the simulation found spikes in food prices up to a whopping 395 percent, driven by extended crop failures in key regions, resultant from the confused reactions by international officials, drastic changes in the environment, and skyrocketing oil prices — many similar factors, the report notes, that drove a global food crisis spanning 2007 to 2008.

Though, at the height of the simulation’s worst repercussions, the food crisis affected virtually every societal and governmental aspect — such as mass civil unrest and widespread crop failures in the planet’s ‘breadbasket’ regions — the Institute ultimately painted a rosy picture of economic and agricultural recovery.

But for as detailed and reactive as the scope of the game sought to be, several glaring omissions likely skewed both results and proposed solutions — and despite backing from the U.S. government, the simulation’s corporate participants could have tacitly or overtly influenced the outcome.

Commissioned in part by Cargill, an industrial agribusiness behemoth, and Mars, the giant whose candy business has vested interests in promoting both genetically-modified food and industrial agriculture, the Food Chain Reaction simulation excluded among possible solutions the abolishment of industrial, factory farming. Considering large-scale agribusiness’ sizable impact on the environment, as well as the paradoxical system whereby industrial agriculture largely supports livestock from factory farms, that exclusion certainly calls into question any results.

Additionally, with FEMA an aspect of the futuristic simulation, it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility to see a call for increased funding in the name of ‘being prepared’ for a coming crisis of epic proportions.

Perhaps, though, an imperative exists in examining both the aspects of massive food shortage studied as well as potential solutions omitted. China recently began the push away from a meat-centric diet, in part because pollution from factory farms has wrought havoc in the air and water. All moralistic pontificating aside, a return to small-scale, organic farming and switching to vegetarian diets, or at least a reduction in consumption of meat, could avert or abate the coming crisis.

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Joe Cool's picture

Long Fearmongering

scm's picture

They obviously didn't take into consideration the Trump factor.

After all He's going to "Make Amerika ""GREAT"" Again"


Trump is an "outsider" LOL What a joke

JRobby's picture

This will put slim fast out of fucking business.

Long paprika and squirrel guns.


froze25's picture

Food prices aren't really going to go up but currency values will be going down. That is the real story.

MANvsMACHINE's picture

Why worry?  As long as you have a smartphone and EBT card, you can order food through Seamless 24/7.  

Son of Loki's picture
America’s shrinking middle class is killing the economy




Obamanomics takes its deadly toll.

McCormick No. 9's picture

Possum, breaded in acorn flour and deep fried in possum fat, with a side of ramps and steamed nettles. Who said foraging had to be a hardship?

conscious being's picture

Anybody remember Eric de Carbonnel? He was screaming about this 6 or 7 years ago. Had lots of graphs and stuff. Never happenned. Jim Rogers has been singing a similar song for, oh 15 years?

Be self-sufficient. Grow your own. Foraging is fun, healthy. Live in a land of plenty. Sleep well every night.

Bytor325's picture

218 years ago Thomas Malthus published a book that said food supply would shortly dry up due to over population.

Having been wrong being no deterrent, 11 generations of fear mongering Malthusian disciples have been spouting various doomsday scenarios.

The only places that run out of food are the countries that centrally plan their economies

DownWithYogaPants's picture

Claire is a global warmer.  One must discount her evaluation of environmental concerns.  

Anybody who believes the Glo-Bull warming hype shows either lack of critical thinking / BS detector AND/OR  is part of the cabal looking to grift people with the MMGW scam.

cdevidal's picture

Not to worry, they just invented Soylent meal replacement. Right on schedule.



TeamDepends's picture

Soylent Green is sheeple!

techpriest's picture

The "energy efficient" algal oil is a joke. You either need incredibly expensive bioreactors (expensive because pumping algae around is a nightmare) or you have to build raceways (long pools) in the desert, and either way you have something that in no way resembles environmental friendliness.

They tried doing algal biodiesel and the amount of energy recovered was less than the energy needed to extract the oil and produce the biodiesel. It can't even power itself. However, the Air force gladly paid $30 a gallon so they could have some "green" fuel for their jets.

Lore's picture

Conveniently, all references to "climate change" and "extreme weather" are oblique.  Explain them!  How sophisticated and honest were the scenarios?  Did the Dungeon Masters consider substantive climatic influences like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, La Nina, volcanism and a possible mini-ice age, or did they merely parrot some retrogressive "global warming" propaganda?  (Sure looks that way.)  Did they address resource scarcity, like the Oil Shockwave exercise?  What about debt and foreign exchange imbalances, pathocracy, and alternate 'home front' political narratives? 

"By 2024, heat and drought hit the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine, while subsiding elsewhere, triggering a food price spike “reaching 395 percent of long-term averages,” and a global economic slowdown."  <- Hello?!  We're IN a global economic slowdown NOW.

It may be hasty and disingenuous to treat these sorts of "games" as much more than exercises in multiple-choice Goal Seeking.  That said, I've never taken part, and the experience would probably be a lot of fun and potentially eye-opening. 

Curiously_Crazy's picture

"It may be hasty and disingenuous to treat these sorts of "games" as much more than exercises in multiple-choice Goal Seeking."


You got it in one. Games are all they are.

As I was reading I starting thinking to myself "Bloody ell this sounds like a farm version of the original Simcity". Remember that? You were given a vacant plot of vacant land on which to develop your city; you suffered the odd earth quake, flood, and fire, and had to deal with them. You dealt with traffic flows and if congestion became to much the people got shitty.. same with crime. Ya even had to balance a budget.

Hell I take it back Simcity was far more complicated than whatever game they were playing heh.

DownWithYogaPants's picture

What's up Claire?  Cargill is involved and you ask no questions?  No skepticism?  You term their "game" futuristic.  So sorry. NO.  It's just software.  Software that can be bent to give any result they want it to.  And you think Cargill spent a truckload of money on developer salaries just to entertain?  Out of the goodness of their hearts?  GET REAL.  You were merely suspect in my mind previously Claire.  Now I have to classify you as a likely hostile.

The Ruling Class Oligarchy's manipulation of the world's using stupid banker tricks is running out of steam.  Perhaps they will decide to place more emphasis on the usage of food as a method of control?

We all know from the Monsanto stuff  that is definitely actively being pursued.  The word must be being put on the channel for general distribution.  Alex Jones has a video out today about the same topic but emphasizes the "artificial scarcity" aspect.  If Claire is not mentioning that she is being used as a tool of agitprop distribution.

Alex Jones video on the topic:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECfVXkCwUlA

Maghreb's picture

The artificial famine aspect is the key. They never seem to mention that the two largest "developed" famines of the 20th century took place in regions that had supported millions if not hundreds of millions for centuries. The Ukranian Holodomor and Famines of the Great leap forward were all engineered by communists who continued to have the food producing regions exporting food to the citites and international markets.

Capitalism may have carried out some similar atrocities with the Irish Famine. Sudden collapses in the exchange rate mechanism have been known to cause famine like conditions exasparating poor harvests. Many of the famines in Africa were the result of CIvil Wars where tribal groups tried to starve each other into submission. 

Malthusian's and Environmental collapse theorists are just trying to get government funding for programs. There is nothing wrong with FEMA preparing for disasters but when the logic pushes people to enact population control measures and heavy handed policies its obvious whats going on. The 20th century pretty much proved that Humanity is its own worst enemy be it the Communist Central planners, Imperialists or Financial manipulation. Empowering those vary groups could be just as dangerous as real environmental catastrophe. Every blood bath in history begins with good intentions.......

farmerunder's picture

+100. The control given to GMO scientists now is evidence of that, they think they can centrally control responses to disease/pest pressure etc, as we have seen in history this thinking will prove wrong. When their families safety or savings accounts are mentioned, all matter of principles will be ignored, just like every day politicians or CEOs. The hard to believe bit is that these scientists think they have control, we will see who has control when a gun is held to their families head. 

snr-moment's picture

damn if that wasn't the best comment i've ever read.  too bad no one under 25 will understand it.

SixIsNinE's picture

and remember all the horrible drought Californians have been hearing ?  (granted, there are some very dry places) - check it out, California now announces they've found a gigantasaurus massive underground water table   http://www.sfgate.com/drought/article/Stanford-study-California-groundwa...

of course Deborah Tavares @ stopthecrime.net has bee on this hidden water / primary water for many years

let's hope the frackers haven't dumped the billions of barrels of sludge in there


Panopticon 131's picture

Spot on.  I've also caught her doing some pretty egregious spin, conveniently omitting known players in an investment paradigm when the whole truth didn't serve the framing.  Come on, we can handle the WHOLE truth.  

Beowulf55's picture

"artificial scarcity"...........key words..........

US has 2 billion bu. of wheat not sold from last year.  Bumper crops due to good rains in Kansas.....wheat price at elvator was $3.19 yesterday.  Dollar up....

Prices going lower......many farmers will not make it.  Switch to other crops....

Could there be a shortage in 3-4 years?........possible.

farmerunder's picture

Never before seen toxin arrives on the wind and contaminates that stored and growing grain making it not suitable to eat- imagine that scenario and put it into your supply side economics? I'm like u, we lose out everyday because of oversupply and derivatives markets controlling price, however overnite we could all be starving.

hxc's picture

Good thing I don't eat anything with grain. Filler crap for fat people. Fuck the USDA and their dumbass pyramid. Basically telling people to eat like a fucking obese stupid animal.


I do love beer, though.

petar's picture

The problem with US food is that No one wants it! GMO is restricted in Europe Mexico China Russia India etc.. 

brettd's picture

Yep.  The game is just a PR tool to ramp/direct the expectations of the population.

You can see the real thing in Venezuela. 

Librarian's picture

why exactly 395%

Why not 400% or 600%?

John_Coltrane's picture

Well, as scientists often say among themselves when queried about the origin of an absurdly exact number, "we pulled it out of our ass" conveying the notion of irrelevent BS.  A recent example is saying the temperature this year was 0.03 degrees hotter than the previous year when the systematic error of the measurement is at least 0.5 degrees since there was that much calibration error in the thermometry.  Actually, no attempt at calibration at all!

By the way, extreme weather has nothing to do with average temperature.  Its all about temperature differences between regions and thus heat flow and wind advection.

The important lesson:  question everything, especially so-called experts (hardly a message ZHers need to understand).  Mostly, they're pulling stuff out of their asses.  Real experts say things like:  "there's too much uncertainty due to lack of good data to model the future behavior of a complex non-linear system."

Rhetorical's picture


Guessing he didn't into account automation and fossil fuels. So far human ingenuity has been able to overcome each obstacle that nature or ourselves have thrown our way. Key word is so far and for a different comment above there isn't enough land for everyone to forage but you know this.

Aquaponics looks like a fun productive hobby though.

Kissy Ass's picture

Jamie Diamond does not need any food he eats too much pussy slushes to require food. Oh!

Richard Chesler's picture

Welcome to Obongo's version of Venezuela!

Hope 'n change suckers.

Escrava Isaura's picture

Bytor325 Malthus published a book that said food supply would shortly dry up due to over population.


Malthus will be proved right because it already started. But wait when the west start running out of crude oil.


Haitians eating dirt to survive.




Then, if your level of ignorance couldn’t get any worse you wrote:

The only places that run out of food are the countries that centrally plan their economies.


Why the farmers in India cannot sell their products at their own price?



Go read the link so you can educate yourself about the difference between state capitalism and private capitalism…………..in the real world.


Last but not least: "You can't solve a problem if you ignore its cause." 


"A central ingredient in smart growth' is regional planning; but, regional planning encourages more population growth, and population growth is unsustainable." We hear a lot today about "smart growth," as though "smart growth" was the magic key to the achievement of sustainability. A central ingredient in "smart growth" is regional planning; but, regional planning encourages more population growth, and population growth is unsustainable.” – Professor Albert Bartlett 1994.




Radical Marijuana's picture

Overshoot in a nutshellMalthus was an optimist.

The single simplest symbol and most extreme particular example of the ways that we living inside of a criminally insane civilization was that cannabis cultivation was criminalized, despite the fact that cannabis is the best plant source for protein and oil to feed animals such as human beings. Contemplating that can provide perspective upon the deeper nature of the problems with respect to food supplies: food controls people, and money controls food, and murder controls money.

When it comes to any environmental topics, the comments posted on Zero Hedge often tend to push cynicism to the point of stupidity. There are an abundance of reasons for how and why it is politically impossible for a civilization operating through fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems (whereby public governments enforce frauds by private banks) to sanely change to adapt to that becoming its own worst enemy ... While many Zero Hedge readers may be somewhat aware of the social polarization driven by fraudulent accounting, they seem to tend to deliberately ignore and/or disagree that the destruction of the natural world will trump the social polarization.

The article above was not nearly "fearmongering" enough!

BarkingCat's picture

you forgot countries occupied by dindoos

Socratic Dog's picture

Not true.  Indonesia had its last famine in the 60's, I recall.  Some African countries much more recently.  Not too much central planning in evidence those places.  Just Malthus.

Just remember, Malthus only has to be right once.

CoolHandLuke's picture

Ha ha...I like the way you think. Possum fat though?? Really? I'm a cracker from FL and am very interested in your comment. I see that Nettles and Ramps are a Northern thing. We have possums down here. I used to have a pet one...but I've never heard of using Possum fat for frying. You're like a real Northern redneck. :o) I'd be interested in hearing more. Tis quite interesting.

DirkDiggler11's picture

When it comes to taking and preparing about any creature that walks the North American continent Meat Trapper is the ZH resident expert. He's not been posting a lot on ZH lately, but here is a link to his site... Great info...


Food Loaf Junkie's picture

Also, Woodchuck and Racoon slow roasted on a rack, with dandelion greens and asparagus. And for a snack, smoked Beaver, this is better than you would believe.

Ex-MislTech's picture

Bags of Beans, Rice, Wheat were cheap, so I bucketized them,

and thats the poor man's plan.

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Hmmm, a nuclear war might make food production go down.  Although, it will make demand go down as well. 

WTFUD's picture

At last someone who looks on the bright side.

Radical Marijuana's picture

After the bubonic plagues killed off a significant fraction of the European people, the survivors were then living in a world where land was cheaper, and wages were higher, than before that plague. However, that Black Death history is relatively trivial compared to what is possible now, since genetically engineered super diseases are quite possible, as the "poor man's nuclear weapons."

Dugald's picture

So could a mini ice age, which the forcasters say is on the cards..

LithiumWarsWAKEUP's picture

I'll settle for Day of Inauguration, D.C. for a nice sized one right over the proceedings. Only if SCOTUS is in attendance, of course. Hey ragheads, you listening,,,? ufuks/j/k oh my

exi1ed0ne's picture

Middle class has been getting shit on since the 70s.

Firepower's picture


IF das mittel klass

has been


44 odd years...



exi1ed0ne's picture

That carrot is mighty juicy looking. I could do without the whip though.