A Portrait Of Quantitative Failure

Tyler Durden's picture

Simply put, it's not working stupid!



Especially in Japan...


But, as BofAML's Michael Hartnett notes, the details of what has been done and the consequences of those actions is, simply put, just embarrassing for all the central planners...

  • Dec’17: first FOMC meeting which market assigns >40% probability of rate hike
  • 659: number of global rate cuts since Lehman bankruptcy
  • $12.9tn: outstanding amount of bonds currently yielding <0% (= 29% of total)
  • $24.6tn: outstanding amount of global central bank holdings of financial assets
  • -1.1%: the most negative bond yield in the world (3-year Swiss government bond)
  • 107 years: time it takes to double your savings in 1-year US deposit account
  • 1387 years: time it takes to double your savings in 1-year German deposit account
  • 6932 years: time it takes to double your savings in 1-year Japanese deposit account
  • 5.7%: level of investor cash as % AUM (Jul’16 FMS), highest since Nov’01
  • $1.6tn: level of cash at US corporate sector, near record high
  • 1978: the year US labor market participation rate was as low as it is today
  • 21,084,000: current number of unemployed men and women in Europe
  • 49%, 45%, 39%: youth unemployment rate in Greece, Spain & Italy

  • 0.16%: the infinitesimal increase in Japan’s real GDP in the past 8 years
  • 25%: annualized YTD return from global government bonds in 2016, a 30-year high

Eisteinian Yellenian madness... "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

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mofio's picture
mofio (not verified) Jul 8, 2016 8:32 PM

A portrait of betrayal.

santafe's picture
santafe (not verified) mofio Jul 8, 2016 8:33 PM

Too much QE. Too little employment.

cdevidal's picture

You had me at too much QE.

santafe's picture
santafe (not verified) cdevidal Jul 8, 2016 8:55 PM


philipat's picture

Santafe to mofio. Are you talking to yourself again? They say that is the first sign. And don't leave out the Greek, he must be feeling very lonely so make the effort to open another browser and log him in to join the conversation...........

erkme73's picture

No worries... The greek gets a turn in the next article - first and second posts actually.

peddling-fiction's picture

Santa Fe/Aristotle/mofio, the charade is over.

Also, I like the Biblicism Institute.


Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture


< they didnt expect zirp to cause deflation at all

< they did but thought the QE would overide it with inflation

curious to know

johngaltfla's picture

Zirp and bail-ins have created perpetual deflation because there is no reason to invest in a nation stricken witih insane central banksters. Cyprus is the best example until Italy goes tit-up soon:

The Bail-In Bankster Model of Cyprus Results: Cyprus Stock Market down 99.2%
ebworthen's picture

Free money for banks/corporations/insurers as you fuck over the middle class, what could go wrong?

Jeebus, it is as if no one reads their history books any more; Wiemar Germany is only two generations back kids.  WTF?

CPL's picture

There is no such thing as free anything and an economy that is out of balance crashes pretty quickly and incredibly hard.  Not many companies that are listed on the exchanges will survive or remain relevant because they force their position.  The outcome is technology development ends up back in workshops.  As usual the price of everything gets weird and people will be looking for a method to trade.  Because governments come and go, business always gets done somehow.  It's how it resets everytime without doing anything to knock it over (it can be sped up, but it's a waste of energy if understanding it's built to break when improperly designed).  Roman's tried bread and circuses.  Greeks pushed the price of slaves.  England pushed for expansion.  The USA went the multinational route.

Civlizations and social movements that spread like cancer always end up killing the host and in the gutter because morons push their luck without measuring what they've got or properly tuning their delivery platform.  Happens in countries, city states and large multinationals.  Anything 'big' requires a lot of energy to maintain.  It's why the whole idea and concept of a world government given the people running it now is laughable.  These morons couldn't organise a cat fight let alone run a planet.  That type of social cohesion requires natural, slow, organic development.  Right now all they are doing is breaking it more.

Just stand back and take a big sniff of their failure.

cherry picker's picture

Like the Nazis did  there will be a means to rid the planet of non productive types.   The old and the dependent.  Only those with the right genes will get a chance.  That is what we are headed for and why the war toy machine is gearing up.


They learned from history and bombs  are easier to explain than death camps. The value of money is no longer meaningful.

in the sixties scientists warned over population was our biggest threat.  They were right.  Cut the world's population by 3/4 and climate change and peak oil goes away and there will be more ocean front available for the privileged.

OldPhart's picture

The sick amusement I get out of this shit absolutely disgusts me.

cherry picker's picture

Probably because common sense is really not common to us all.

we can't believe it so we keep on reading in the hope we see something that rings true but truth is an illusion on this planet when it comes to economics and human behavior.

4 wheel drift's picture

it takes an ekonomist to.....


create it...

believe in it...

not realizing it ain't working....

(and it never would....   faulty design from inception....    of course.. ekonomist believe in this shit)...   -lmao


it will create enormous chaos....   from which spectacular profits will come

jamesmmu's picture

Please tell me 3 events that could lead to a market crash as soon as next week.


Other than DB file bankcrutcy and government takes over, I cant think of anything that can affect ppl's confident on the stock market.

back to basics's picture

There are no events that someone could forecast that would cause this pixie dust market to go down. None whatsoever, even a DB collapse won't do it.

Only a true unforseen event, a true far tail end black swan could catch the central planners off balance and overwhelm the printing press. 

That could happen tomorrow or never so to be short this beast expecting that event will send you to the poor house much like it sent most who traded this market on fundamentals the last seven years.

Bank_sters's picture

THe whole system is collapsing.  There is nothing they can do now except print and that is failing.  Counterparty risk from imploding emerging markets, pension funds, credit card debt, student loans, auto loans, health care costs, real estate, shale oil bankruptcies, currency fluxuations and sovereign debt is slowing eating at the stock market facade.  It will fall and soon.  Picking a date is foolish.  As the joke goes, Did you hear about the day trader who is worth a million dollars?  Yeah, he started out with 10 million.



back to basics's picture

Sorry mate but you seem confused. 

SLOWLY eating  at the market facade (when the markets just hit an all time high), it will fail and SOON snd all the while admitting that picking a date is foolish sounds to me you haven't a clue of what you are talking about other than spewing doom porn and wishing it will come true some day.

Unless of course your "slowly" and "soon" are measured in geological terms.in which case your prediction undoubtedly will be proven right someday. 

Will this be in your lifetime? I don't think you know.


Bank_sters's picture

Ok, let me clue you in on reality.  If the debtor can't pay the debt it goes bad.  Do you have hope for puerto rico, or sub prime auto loans?  Come now, I'm talking about verifiable facts.  It is all a charade.  Where would the stawks be if delisted companies be in the Dow 30?  Huh?  Even the current facade is imploding.   

back to basics's picture

I never said it wasn't a charade but just like the Puerto Rico bankruptcy was quickly papered over with just a few keystrokes, so will all the other things you are concerned about. That's reality and that's the reality we've been living the last seven years despite your dreams of collapse.

How can the facade be imploding when we are constantly hitting news highs? Where is the evidence that the facade.is imploding beyond your wishful thinking?

You may find this surprising but I too know that this charade is unsustainable. It's the SOON part we differ on. I see no evidence that the fiat we are creating with reckless abandon to keep this corrupt system/ponzi from collapsing is being rejected by others. Quite the contrary, everyone around the globe still loves exchanging their hard assets and hard labour for green pieces of paper that we can print without limit. When you see that change, for real, not the bilateral agreement US dollar doom porn constantly spewed on here, then you can start thinking about SOON.

We are nowhere near that point and I can't tell you if it will happen in your life time and neither can you.

Crisismode's picture

Measured in constant $USD, especially using REAL inflation data (ala Shadowstats, instead of phony CPI bullshit) . . .

. . . stawks are nowhere near their all-time highs.


Bam_Man's picture

They are constantly removing under-performing stocks from the major indices, and replacing them with high-fliers.

Hewlett Packard and Bank of America - both total pigs - were removed from the Dow in 2014, replaced with Nike and Goldman Sachs. With its stock price going nowhere, JP Morgan Chase is about to get pulled next.


Killdo's picture

I've seen a few black swans in Australia recently

back to basics's picture

Are those the same black swans that those who have been shorting this market for seven years now and getting killed have been seeing?

I thought so. 

Killdo's picture

No they actually have (real) black swans there . I saw a few on Yarra river in Melbourne

Ol Man's picture

1.  Iran launches 100,000 missiles against Isreal.

2.  10,000,000 Americans buy 10 oz. of Silver.

3.  A sniper takes out the FED reserve Governors.


yogibear's picture

#3 would make the seniors stand up and cheer. High-five each other.

nmewn's picture

#FixedIncomeLivesMatter! ;-)

Son of Captain Nemo's picture


I like all three of them. But only 3. has the best prospects for getting this Country out of this mess and the rest of the World for that matter. #2 will never happen because the vast majority in this Country don't know and probably will never know where money comes from... So that Ag will remain in the hands of far less than 10 million.

As a matter of fact... We might as well start putting our collective heads together for a guided plan on #3. cause if we do nothing which is what we've been doing #1. (countries to be determined) is going to happen sure enough guaranteed!!!

ExplodingEntropy's picture

Ol Man knows, SHUT IT DOWN!

CPL's picture

It doesn't work that way at all.  In all collapses of the past (and future) the common theme is once the 'money', the currency of the time that helps facilitate trade and services, is rendered worthless or completely dysfunctional it always collapses.  

What is never quite understood is what do people use to manage the day to day business during these transitions.  Because large multinationals today are not new by any means.  There have been millions of them over the course of the past interglacial period of 12,000 years.  Yet during each collapse, trade still happens and it's the consumers  are the ones that actually determine what the currency is, not governments or companies.  Those two things, governments and large business, are by-products of the consumer.  The consumer is the market and the consumer is what determines the currency since they are the one's buying stuff from other people.

In Canada at least we've got at least four other markets outside of the 'mainstream' market.  Grey market, Black market, Barter and Skills swap.  That's four markets that are pretty flexible in how business gets done and the currency used more accessible to people since it's usually involves either trading labour, something unneeded/unused or whatever is determined as 'cash'.  For everyday consumers in Canada that manage their business and have a decent community of hagglers, people that barter and swap; they might miss some of the more upscale items, but typically no one does that badly as long and they stay out of the troubles and manage themselves properly.

That idea of 'external' markets, like the stock market, disappears because the consumer can't afford the 'mainstream' option.  That fact is it's built to collapse hard and badly.  Then the banks collapse as usual, governments are usually burned to the ground and the mob (the consumer that got screwed) kills everyone associated with the past fuck up.  In essence the mob 'fires' their employees in those governments and businesses.  Eventually something gets settled on as 'money' and the whole thing starts again.  Just the way it's worked for a long ass time.

Again, none of the people running things today have a hope in hell of getting it right considering the bag of shit they were handed by the jews.  It'll blow up in their faces and like always.  They'll just be killed just like every other time in history when the 'top tier' shit in their punch bowl.


retired dude's picture

I lived in Zimbabwe 2007-2009 during the days of the 100 trillion dollar note.  I still have a few of those notes.  I went an entire year without spending any money in the formal economy; but commerce continued through barter and trade.  The black market expanded and thrived when the formal economy collapsed.  Look at your local Craiglist and see for yourself.  It is an alternative market for barter and trade.

CPL's picture

There is always a safety net during collapses.  Every kid is taught early, school yard rules always apply:

"What you got?"

"I got two of these.  What you got?"

"Trade you one for that."

And there's always one kid out of the bunch of them that do it really well.  He's the one with the full set of wild cards that everyone wants and he hussled to move garbage into a something decent.  Weird thing it's not a practice reserved for any specific country either, every one does it.  Where it gets confusing is when fiat is floating around, and as you know from Zimbabwe, every one is 'rich' but there is nothing buy.  However go around a corner or where ever the boot sales happen, there is always someone out there hussling and doing business selling more shit than the stores ever managed to ship in.


Craigslist, kijiji, penny saver, super market bullentin boards, laundry mat bulleten boards, legion, library, schools, pizza places, coffee shops, corner store.  Places where consumers look for goods and services while doing their thing.  The electronic medium is awesome, but there are some more traditional spots people also check things but the most successful type of marketing is word of mouth.  Usually to earn praise a builder, or whoever is selling a service or goods has to have merit to get business.  A contractor is only as good as their last job, that's why word of mouth is important.

divingengineer's picture

Losing money usually sobers people up pretty quick. 

exi1ed0ne's picture

No fucking way the market ever crashes again. Central banks own too much of it, and stand ready to buy more if even a whiff of fear takes root. If the currency gets too many zeros on it they will just release a new currency, blame China or whomever they need too, and move on from there.

The only thing that will lead to a general revolt is hunger. Always has, always will. As long as people have food on the table nothing is going to change.

conraddobler's picture

Well since it's all manipulated an asteroid could strike wiping out 99% of life and if the dude can somehow make it to the print button the indexes will climb as always.

It's really that simple.

Shutting that off accidentally on purpose to crash everything thus extorting more out of all of us earlthlings could do it too.

So one thing really that's if they say so.

Fundies's picture

Where's the tipping point ?

CPL's picture

Already happened in 1985 with the savings and loan scandal.  Takes a while for something to get this bad...just like it was scripted.

divingengineer's picture

There's only 26 million people who 'can't afford to shop'.

If they can  make their profits on the top 5%, they don't give a fuck  if we eat our own shit  and die.

And roll back in it.


VWAndy's picture

 Fiat magic baby. I could make that bitch do back flips with unlimited credit.

gregga777's picture

But Feral Reserve System policies have been a smashing success because the rich now have more wealth and income than at any time in modern history. That is the true goal of all Feral Reserve System ACTIONS; FOMC meeting minute WORDS are all camouflage for their true goal.

Seal's picture

Oh contraire - it IS  working. The US'S  banks balance sheets of worth less assets are UP

khakuda's picture

And the more they do, the worse it is going to get. Starving people of spendable income, encouraging excess capacity to stay in the system, creating asset bubbles and capital misallocation, encouraging ever more debilitating debt, encouraging corporations to raise dividends and stock buybacks to provide the income formerly provided by bonds to investors instead of investing in jobs and productivity enhancement, bankrupting pension plans, starving retirees and forcing them into stock market speculation , destroying insurance companies, and destroying the banking system they bailed out.

It is all in a days work for central bankers - economists afflicted by supreme hubris who don't believe markets work well unless manipulated by those who are supposedly smarter than markets.

As long as one believes in space aliens breaking windows and peter pan, everything will be fine.

I now live in a world where soda pop is being banned while marijuana has been legalized. Pretty young girls are covering themselves with tattoos to look like old sailors. The leading candidate for president is a pathological liar and completely dishonest and horribly unqualified. Total government debt is not 19 trillion but probably closer to 250 trillion including all the state obligations using honest accounting. The stock market marches on it's merry way like everything is great and bond interest rates have gone negative in large portions of the world.

If that isn't fucked up, I don't know what is. At least it is the weekend.

auricle's picture

Since we know life declined permanently after Nixon took us off the gold standard, why can't we simply resolve that was a terrible idea and go back? This time a global reserve currency and no convertibility, only an annual audit by a committee of sovereign representatives to confirm the gold is there? 

Mcguyver's picture

I don't get it - how would they steal from us with an honest system ? That is why you will never see one until the second comming

divingengineer's picture

Their fucking precious asset prices, that's why.

It's more important than the human race itself.

Troy Ounce's picture



This chart is amazing!

QE has now been declared another useless KeynesIan policy

Dr. Bonzo's picture

Simply put, it's not working stupid!

This conclusion assumes the objective of QE was ever the welfare of the common citizen. That's like saying the Military Industrial Complex actually cares about spreading Jeffersonian democracy. George Soros has made billions. He's quite chuffed with himself thank you very much. Last I checked JPM and GS were doing swimmingly. No gripes there. Chinese commie oligarchs? Ditto. No. Au contraire. Billionaires around the world have seen their assets inflated to obscene levels. How is that not working? These are people who see themselves as seperate from the common man, who believe they are inherently superior, genetically better and ordained to be on top. No questions asked.

The Brexit vote was instructive in one crucial way that seems to have escaped a lot of people. For the first time I can recall, the globalist agenda was taken from the pages of obscure think tank journals and white papers and quarterlies and plastered all over Youtube through dozens of town hall meetings and hijacked editorial pages. Democracy is passé, referendums are vulgar, and voters are morons who need to be saved from themselves by enlightened genius elites of own say-so, all for the benefit of more and betterer and bestest free trade and one central global government presumably run by one sole genius uber-brain.

Apparently, the nation state itself is evil. Not industrial transnationalists who have funded every single fringe political movement from the National Socialists to the Bolsheviks to Black Lives Matter.... nooooooo. Wealthy transnational industrialists are never the root cause of all evil. It's the little people organized in their stupid little outdated territorial tribal mobs.

The coming crisis was created of elites, by elites, for elites. The great sin of the mobs is not that we turn our wrath on elites and exterminate them, but that we continue to let them manipulate us into slaughtering each other.

Which is why you'll have to excuse me from any participation in the next collapse. I'll be sitting this one out. I'll watch it from my 50" inch super HD flatscreen, like the Rothchilds and Schwartzes.

Jtrillian's picture

Well said.  All evil needs to succeed is for good people to remain silent. 

Apathy is consent. 

History has shown us that nearly every great opressive evil in has not been able to take hold without the consent of the people.