More Questions Emerge About Skewed Hillary Polls

Tyler Durden's picture

One glimpse at the massive variance between the last two days polls in swing states suggests something very odd is going on.

Quinnipac:

  • Pennsylvania Trump +2
  • Ohio Tied
  • Florida Trump +3

Monmouth:

  • Iowa Trump +2

NBC/WSJ:

  • Pennsylvania Clinton +9
  • Ohio Tied
  • Iowa Clinton +3

Or graphically...

[Pennsylvania white voters: Trump, 40% Clinton, 40% Pennsylvania black voters: Trump, 0% Clinton, 91%; Ohio white voters: Trump, 43% Clinton, 33% Ohio black voters: Trump, 0% Clinton, 88% -- WSJ/NBC/Marist poll]

Simply put, as The Daily Bell notes, given the post-Email-gate disapproval ratings...

A majority of Americans disapprove of the FBI’s recommendation not to charge Hillary Clinton with a crime over her handling of email while secretary of state, and a similar number in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say the issue leaves them worried about how she would handle her responsibilities as president if elected.

 

Most also say the email controversy won’t affect their vote in the presidential election. But 28 percent say it leaves them less likely to support her, versus 10 percent who say it makes them more likely to do so. -ABC Poll

Pro-Hillary Clinton polls don’t make sense.

In fact, polling with such tiny samples doesn’t make sense anyway, but coming on the heels of other questionable polls favoring Hillary, this widely quoted poll only seems to raise further questions.

The poll, above, has been widely cited as presenting a negative picture of Clinton.

But as it attempted to question “younger” Democratic voters, perhaps the results could have been even worse than they were.

Maybe it is normal to seek out younger age groups, but certainly younger voters may be seen as even more emphatic in their preferences than older ones.

Alternatively, younger voters might have been less apt to pay attention to the questions, or more more malleable and eager to provide answers they felt would be seen as appropriate. In any case, emphasizing one demographic over another may be seen as injecting additional bias into the results.

It’s been pointed out that younger voters are often supportive of Bernie Sanders rather than Hillary, but these questions dealt directly with whether or not Hillary’s behavior changed voting decisions.

The answer was dramatically “no.”

In fact, according to the poll, two-thirds of Democrats approve of the decision not to charge Clinton and think the issue is unrelated to what she would do as president. Only three in 10 Democrats think she should have been charged.

We looked up the polling methodology HERE and found this.

Within each landline household, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home; if no person of that gender is at home, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest adult of the other gender. Cell phone interviews are conducted with the adult answering the phone.

Some of those involved with Langer have faced polling questions in the past. HERE from the Huffington Post:

Emmy-Winning Iraq Polls May Have Been Tainted By Fabrication, Researchers Say

 

The Huffington Post Public opinion polls in Iraq since 2003 have been crucial to understanding the war-torn country. ABC News relied on polls for reporting that was awarded two Emmys — the first to mention public opinion polling.

 

But two researchers looking at Iraq polling data in 2011 found alarming patterns that they said suggested some results may have been fabricated by people in Iraq.

 

They wrote a paper describing their findings and sent it to the U.S. company in charge of the data collection, D3 Systems …

 

Representatives of Langer Research Associates, the company later formed that includes the pollsters who worked for ABC, and Lev & Berlin didn’t immediately respond to HuffPost’s requests for comment after business hours on Friday.

Questions have been raised about ABC and the other big media companies in the past. CBS and NBC have been accused HERE of oversampling Democrats in polls, leading to skewed results.

But ABC has also been criticized as regards polling. An April Newsbusters article revealed ABC news stations featured negative Trump polling but didn’t report polls that showed negative Hillary results. See HERE.

Meanwhile, a Reuters Ipsos poll HERE shows Hillary Clinton extending her lead Donald Trump to 13 percentage points. This is up from 10 points last week.

Given the amount of controversy regarding Clinton, the advances she managed to make are certainly astonishing. Trump actually is seen to have lost ground in the same poll.

Conclusion: It’s been shown that people may change their minds about candidates depending on the messages received from polling, among other ongoing results. And the results of polling can be dramatically influenced based on the demographics involved.

Generally speaking, mainstream polling raises questions regarding a regular, pro-Hillary slant, and that’s not going to change.

*  *  *

However, as Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger explains "People just want to kill the status quo," and mainstream media-ites just don't understand (or don't want to)...

We are living in an era of justified general disgust. While this disgust manifests itself in all sorts of unproductive ways, the root cause is completely and entirely justified. People see so-called “elites” as the cause of their suffering and they are correct in that assessment. When I say elites, I refer to people who are in charge of crafting our public policy (politicians), those who bribe them (oligarchs) and the pundits who defend them (the mainstream media).

 

These three groups comprise much, but certainly not all, of what many of us refer to as the “status quo.” These crony capitalists, corrupt legislators and their media gatekeepers have been absolutely instrumental in creating the wretched, lawless and disintegrating socio-economic fabric that anyone with an open mind can clearly see around us. As such, it comes as no surprise to me that Trump has now taken the lead in two swing states, and is tied in a third. Actually, that’s not entirely true, I am pretty surprised about Florida.

 

...

 

All indications are that both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein will be on the ballot in a majority of states, so what does this mean for the general election? I’ll let you come to your own conclusions.

 

What really surprised me today is the continued cluelessness of even the somewhat enlightened, celebrated thinkers out there. In this case, I’m referring to Robert Reich, who I applaud for having done some very good work which I have specifically highlighted on these pages. As such, I was stunned to see the following tweet from him earlier today (my response included).

 

 

Robert Reich gets it more than most, yet still harbors an enormous blindspot. How is that? First, I think that most of his conversations in everyday life are with people from deep within the “status quo.” As such, he’s having discussions within an echo chamber of incompetent and corrupt people. The ones who aren’t incompetent or corrupt are simply in a state of complete denial as to the reality around them.

 

Here’s the thing Robert. The American public is far more pissed off than even you’d like to admit. Part of the reason you refuse to admit it is that this reality is truly terrifying. You’d have to acknowledge that people are so upset, they so want to blow up the status quo, that they’d even vote for the buffoon Trump to do it. While I’m not 100% sure we’re there yet, we’re much closer than most people care to admit.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Supernova Born's picture

If you're crooked and corrupt and a crony capitalist, Hillary is your pick.

The MSM is all of the above.

eforce's picture

Crony capitalist? I think you mean socialist...

Supernova Born's picture

Goldman Sachs loves Hillary.

Comcast/NBC loves Hillary (they did the polls in question).

Looney's picture

Here’s a “What if?” scenario…

1. Hillary is nominated

2. Her poll numbers drop to single-digits

3. The DNC starts panicking and…

4. She goes to Dallas to mow a… strike that… THE green knoll.

 

I betcha, the demented Joey Biden’s paradrop is still an option for the Libs. I think?   ;-)

Looney

Bumpo's picture

Sounds like the writer doesn't "get it" either. To many, Trump is no Buffoon, but right on target in so many ways. And that includes showing no respect for the Politically Correct world we're supposed to bow to. Trump is the Titty Twister MSM and Status Quo truly deserve.

Raymond K Hessel's picture

I'm filing this under "No shit, Captain Obvious!"

NoDebt's picture

Polls are propoganda, just like everything the MSM produces.  Period, end of sentence.

Hillary will have a 5-6 point lead in nationwide polls right up till she loses the election.

macholatte's picture

All things NBC are garbage.

Lots of people want to associate with a “winner” and will, therefore, take the path of least resistance and go with that choice. Democrat Numb Skulls are especially susceptible to such self fulfilling prophecies.

 

Vote Trump!

Vote Often

 

!! NEVER HITLARY !!

 

mofio's picture
mofio (not verified) macholatte Jul 13, 2016 7:20 PM

Wether we like it or not, we're about to get our first female POTUS.
http://bit.ly/1p1jKnr

jcaz's picture

The media is concerned with ONE thing- selling press.   They're under no legal obligation to accurately perform any survey- they can shape it any which way they choose to, and do;

Sadly, the TMZ population hasn't figured this out yet......

MalteseFalcon's picture

The MSM has two missions:

1. keep Hitlery in the game.

2.  keep you watching the MSM.

So the election will be nip and tuck right up to the landslide for Trump announced on election night.

The story for the day after the election?

How did our models get this so wrong?

drendebe10's picture

Wutta complete and total fukjob that the first black and the eventual first woman presidents are two of the most despicable humans on the face of the earth.  

"I am the democrat party's worst nightmare. A thinking black man."   Charles Ramsey in his book Dead Give Away.  Evidently he may be only one of a handful.  

Malvern Joe's picture

There is no media anymore.  The Washington Post is run by Amazon.  Comcast is run by GE.  CNN is the NWO.  And Fox is Fox.

thebigunit's picture

And the New York Times is run by Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim.

Here2Go's picture
Here2Go (not verified) thebigunit Jul 13, 2016 11:00 PM

So does that make him a quesopope?

froze25's picture

Fox is largely owned by the House of Saud, (scummy people that call themselves Royals)

Malvern Joe's picture

There is no media anymore.  The Washington Post is run by Amazon.  Comcast is run by GE.  CNN is the NWO.  And Fox is Fox.

Malvern Joe's picture

There is no media anymore.  The Washington Post is run by Amazon.  Comcast is run by GE.  CNN is the NWO.  And Fox is Fox.

jeff montanye's picture

comcast and ge once owned nbc jointly however comcast bought out ge in 2013.

http://theweek.com/articles/467670/comcast-buys-rest-nbc-did-general-ele...

but your point is well taken. abc is walt disney, cbs is viacom, and all of the big six but fox have zionist jews as ceo's.  fox's rupert murdoch is a zionist but, apparently, not a jew.  from wiki:

The Big Six[76] Media Outlets Revenues (2014)[77]

Comcast NBCUniversal (a joint venture with General Electric from 2011 to 2013), NBC and Telemundo, Universal Pictures, Focus Features, 26 television stations in the United States and cable networks USA Network, Bravo, CNBC, The Weather Channel, MSNBC, Syfy, NBCSN, Golf Channel, Esquire Network, E!, Cloo, Chiller, Universal HD and the Comcast SportsNet regional system. Comcast also owns the Philadelphia Flyers through a separate subsidiary. $69 billion

The Walt Disney Company Holdings include: ABC Television Network, cable networks ESPN, the Disney Channel, A&E and Lifetime, approximately 30 radio stations, music, video game, and book publishing companies, production companies Touchstone, Marvel Entertainment, Lucasfilm, Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar Animation Studios, the cellular service Disney Mobile, Disney Consumer Products and Interactive Media, and theme parks in several countries. Also has a longstanding partnership with Hearst Corporation, which owns additional TV stations, newspapers, magazines, and stakes in several Disney television ventures. $48.8 billion

News Corporation* Holdings include: the Fox Broadcasting Company; cable networks Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, National Geographic, Nat Geo Wild, FX, FXX, FX Movie Channel, and the regional Fox Sports Networks; print publications including the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post; the magazines Barron's and SmartMoney; book publisher HarperCollins; film production companies 20th Century Fox, Fox Searchlight Pictures and Blue Sky Studios. As of July 2013, News Corporation was split into two separate companies, with publishing assets and Australian media assets going to News Corp, and broadcasting and media assets going to 21st Century Fox.[78] $40.5 billion ($8.6 billion News Corp and $31.9 billion 21st Century Fox)

Time Warner Formerly the largest media conglomerate in the world, with holdings including: CNN, the CW (a joint venture with CBS), HBO, Cinemax, Cartoon Network/Adult Swim, HLN, NBA TV, TBS, TNT, truTV, Turner Classic Movies, Warner Bros., Castle Rock, DC Comics, Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment, and New Line Cinema. $22.8 billion

Viacom Holdings include: MTV, Nickelodeon/Nick at Nite, VH1, BET, Comedy Central, Paramount Pictures, and Paramount Home Entertainment. $13.7 billion

CBS Corporation Holdings include: CBS Television Network and the CW (a joint venture with Time Warner), cable networks CBS Sports Network, Showtime, TVGN; 30 television stations; CBS Radio, Inc., which has 130 stations; CBS Television Studios; book publisher Simon & Schuster. $13.8 billion

TruxtonSpangler's picture

Like Ive been saying for years on ZH, the first goal of polls is to drive ad revenue.

Withdrawn Sanction's picture

True, and you can see it in their antiquated methodology.  Land line?  Really?  Of those who still have them, how many actually answer them or instead let them roll to the voice mail?

Seek_Truth's picture

I live in Pennsylvania.

I do business in PA, MD, DE, VA and DC.

Out of hundreds of contacts that I do business with, NOT ONE is voting for Hellary.

All Trump.

That's my experience.

jeff montanye's picture

by the time november rolls around, i think even some of those undecided black people may choose the peace, justice and rebuilding candidate over the bankster war criminal.

hope and change.

CuttingEdge's picture

If three in ten Dems think she should have been charged, that's a potential 30% of Dems that won't show up on polling day for the bitch.

What's not to like?

Her blatant hubristic criminality is a serious weakness in the eyes of your average fair-minded individual.

froze25's picture

When they started calling Trump a racist, and all other names. And said that if you support him you are the same in the MSM. The polling data became useless. People will lie now. Trump one huge with almost zero lawn signs during the primaries. Thats a tell.

European American's picture

Fuck ALL the Polls!

It's going to be a LANDSLIDE, of epic proportions.

TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!

HowdyDoody's picture

Totally OT, but I present, for your enjoyment, a takfiri video of the aftermath of a Russian bombing raid in response to the shooting down of a Syrian helicopter carrying a couple of Russian advisors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niBhtsPTC9o

 

 

 

 

johngaltfla's picture

The problem? The average sheeple doesn't know or care about the difference between a poll or propaganda. Those polls surveying +D by 15% are full of shit and designed as campaign promotions for the bitch.

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

Thanks so much for that video.  I read about it in the Russian media, but our MSM didn't print a word about the bomber strike and google.news pretended it didn't happen.

Spigot's picture

Oh, I'm with you on that sentiment.

The reason they are flooding the media with fake polls and fake news showing The Beast ahead of Trump all the time is to provide cover for the intense voter fraud campaign they will be mounting. I believe they will continue AND increase the reporting of fraudulent disinformation, and saturate the media with this effluent as a means to legitamize their voter fraud results if it does swing the election to The Beast.

Personally, I believe there is so much dirt to be revealed on The Beast that those who can't stomach voting for Trump will simply not go to the polls.

jcaz's picture

Actually,  I think that there is so much dirt on the beast that Trumps biggest problem is "Where do I begin?"

Maybe that's Clinton 101-  be SO corrupt that it's impossible for anyone to dig thru the shit in a reasonable amount of time-  eventually, people will just glaze over at all of it.... 

Decent strategy.

Spigot's picture

IMO, the MO has been that the 'dirty' in Washington focus foremost on digging up dirt on each other as a means of influence. The Beast probably has more dirt on all the decision makers in DC and has informed them that if they get in her way in ANY way she will out them. It's a nuclear option. Obviously murder is one means which has been used both tactically and strategicly there.

This is probably why the only real challenge can be mounted by a non-DC person and whatever group(s) back them.

If The Beast and her machine is strong enough to take over DC, I can not imagine the utter mayhem and irreparable damage that would result to this country. Zero has been 10x worse that any of the prior Presidents. Hillary? I would be praying for a tactical nuke strike on DC at that point.

STP's picture

Agreed.  The Beast is one of the most power hungry whores, I've ever seen in my life.  Don't dare get in her way.  Either you're with the "I'm with Her" crowd or your against her.  I hate even seeing the "I'm with Her" ads.

Spigot's picture

Yeah, I've been trying to figure out why she bothers since abuse of power at the corporate level is so much more protected. It then occurred to me that the President has a magic amulet whose powers exceed even those held by the most powerful in the corporate world: the Presidential Pardon.

The Executive can nullify all Law and Judgement using this one device. In prior days it was almost never used. These days I am sure that the Executive runs like a RICO, including using the branch called "Justice" to perform RIC without limit.

Grab that golden ring and you basicly own the plantation outright.

Singelguy's picture

I hink that the Trump people have been busy gathering evidence on the Beast for at least the past 6 months. Given that the majority of the electorate have a short attention span and short memories, Trump is saving all that dirt for the last 2 weeks of the campaign. The Beast won't know what hit her.

AU5K's picture

Who answers the phone for unknown numbers anymore???  Polls biased.

Spigot's picture

Also, the poll was done specificly calls to "landlines" ... huh!?

It's quite easy to target market via phone exchange areas mapped to the block. You want a result, we can dial up a result!

thebigunit's picture

The election is going to be determined by demographics and turnout.

It's going to be a LANDSLIDE, of epic proportions.

The evil left has been busily skewing the demographics in their favor with illegal immigration.  

The Hillary campaign (and her friends in social media corporations) know everything about every Hillary voter, and will PERSONALLY get each and every one of them to vote.

There is passion among Trump voters, but the crony capitalist RINO's are pinched and may stay at home.

It's NOT a done deal for Trump.  There will be surprises.  No one really knows.

JuliaS's picture

That's one of the differences between Democracy and a Republic. In a Republic individual rights are the foundation. If every neighbor votes to take away your stuff, you have the right to take your gun and tell them to fuck off. In a Democracy, you're supposed to comply with the will of the majority, even if it goes against your rights. They vote you off the lot - you pack your bags and go. In fact, you start packing the moment they start whispering.

Polls are designed for the democratic mindset, where what "others" want is what you're supposed to desire also. Instead of rights all you get is temporary privileges granted to you by the will of the invisible majority, so when a poll tells you people want Hilary, you're not supposed to question, you're expected to comply as if she's already an elected leader.

Well, fuck her and fuck the news polls!

Here2Go's picture
Here2Go (not verified) JuliaS Jul 14, 2016 12:21 AM

In the US version of Democracy, Ruth Bader Ginsberg casts the deciding vote to take away all of your stuff starting with your gun. In a Republic, you buy Ginsberg a one way ticket to New Zealand, hand her a ham sandwich, & tell her to fuck off.

thebigunit's picture

Yes.  The ethos of the Democratic party and the Democrat base is tribalism.  This describes tribalist behavior.

Polls are designed for the democratic mindset, where what "others" want is what you're supposed to desire also. Instead of rights all you get is temporary privileges granted to you by the will of the invisible majority, so when a poll tells you people want Hilary, you're not supposed to question, you're expected to comply as if she's already an elected leader.

Tribalists don't necessarily want what "others" want.  They want what the shaman wants.  But EVERYBODY better want what the shaman wants.  Hillary is the shaman.

Oldwood's picture

Propaganda that might just blow up in their face. They typically believe that polls can drive voters because voters will traditionally want to vote for the winner. In this case I believe it will be exactly the opposite. Only if voters think Trump has it in the bag, will they stay home. 

I know for a fact that I will not be swayed. Trump would have to be one evil fuck before I will allow Hillary to destroy our constitution...and that is EXACTLY WHAT SHE WILL DO. 

Legislation is meaningless.

SCOTUS will decide.

Congress can sharpen or dull the blade, but SCOTUS IS the blade. Un-elected ACLU assholes who are no longer afraid to express their political beliefs PROFUSELY.

A Hillary presidency will mandate they wear a crown with their robes. The trick will be to get Bill in as chief justice. It will be unfortunate that a man as young as Judge Roberts will suffer a debilitating stroke at such a young age.

Obama will likely made Secretary-General of the UN....seeing as that position requires someone culturally diverse.

Dabooda's picture

As long as we vote using programmable voting machines, the election will go to the most connected and corrupt.  The courts that judge fair play or foul -- likewise.  Quotes from Stalin and Mark Twain are apropos:

Joseph Stalin — 'Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.'

Mark Twain — 'If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it.'

Phil Free's picture

Diebold = we are screwed.

The U.K. did it right with their Brexit vote. They used actual, real, physical, countable pieces of paper (ok.. card stock) ... they did not use a single digital "voting 'machine'" at all.  

Stalin unfortunately also had it right.  Whoever controls Diebold behind-the-scenes will decide who becomes President of the United States, and leader of "the free world" (which.. ain't so free any more ....)

God, I wish we could get our hanging chads back . . .