The 3 Charts That No UK Property Fund Manager Wants You To See

Tyler Durden's picture

Things just went from worst to worst-er in Britain's property market. Having detailed the numerous 'dominoes' that have begun to fall, and most recently the start of forced real asset liquidations, the hard data from Britain's Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors suggests Brexit just killed the British housing market.

Having previously shown the following chart as an example of the 'liquidity gap' between fund-level liquidations and the exuberant UK real estate market, things could get ugly very quickly...


But things are about to get a lot worse... Here are three charts that no UK Property fund manager wants their investors to see...

New Vendor Instructions (roughly translated as pending home sales) has crashed by the most ever...

Source: RICS

"Hope" has collapsed with National Sales Expectations for the next 3- and 12-months are the worst on record...

Source: RICS

And Price expectations have plunged...

Source: RICS

Simply put, as RICS concludes, this is the "most negative reading for near term expectations since 1998."

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Baronneke's picture

Down the drain it goes.  A lot more misery to follow, everywhere in the world.

back to basics's picture

Which makes Carney's "no change" announcement earlier even more puzzling. Maybe Teresa May is the real deal after all and she will reign in all this speculation in real estate. One can only hope. 

Harlequin001's picture

I didn't buy a house, I bought gold. In 2003.

I like this, because at some point, I'm going to sell very little gold, and buy an awful lot of house(s)...

css1971's picture

Expect 225 ounces per house. Unless you manage to hit the apocalypse. I saw a historical chart of the ratio of house prices to gold recently.

Keep an eye on the ratio.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

This is not an unknown, but they've been able to pretend until now. The London market is gonna take a giant shit, and my heart bleeds teeny tiny tears......

NubianSundance's picture

The portfolio manager will go through figures of UK house prices and find that on average prices have quadrupled or more in each twenty year period going back more than a century, wars and crashes included.

Phillyguy's picture

The BOE will come to the rescue.

back to basics's picture

They could have earlier today and they didn't.  Something changed. 

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Jawboning/"Markets" did the work for them this time around

venturen's picture

who do we have to rescue now?

RadioFlyer's picture
RadioFlyer (not verified) Jul 14, 2016 12:06 PM

Bullish, should add 500-1000 to FTSE 100 in our world of opposites.  Might even monkey hammer gold a bit.

praps's picture

Everything is going to get monkey hammered.

blue51's picture

Too early for condo speculation in Aleppo? I've seen some great brochures.

foxenburg's picture

@blue51. I was thinking that all those Aussie bulldozers & heavy equipment we were told last year were fetching 5c in the dollar at auction would come in handy in Aleppo.

blue51's picture

Yea, what ever happened to that equipment? " They" should cut a deal in Syria, and share in the Trillions to be made from pipelines and reconstruction. But one side, knows not how to share.

ThrownOffZHTwice's picture
ThrownOffZHTwice (not verified) Jul 14, 2016 12:12 PM

I think this is all about commercial property, although I see the words "roughly translated as pending home sales".  Any ideas?

Amun's picture

yes, very lousy piece of poo

it is a mish-mash of unrelated charts

some commercial property with more real data

and some residential charts - with "expectations" (pregnancy suppose)


Amun's picture

Houses are for living

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Jul 14, 2016 12:17 PM

FUCK!!!  Is it too late to buy a liveable shipping container in London???  I want in!!!!

BoingBoing's picture

Fuck. Yes.

Bring it on.

personal109's picture

Brexit didn't kill the property market, it saved it, by deflating a massive bubble.  But I"m sure the clever Brits will find ways to re-inflate the bubble.

khaproperty's picture

Property-developing ends late in the upstream of GDP. It´s an old truth. Worldwide we are in such a situation at large.

Commercial property is meant. But not alone. All others following. Interest down or not.

d2thdr's picture will be drooling over this.