The Girl Child Arrives

Bruce Krasting's picture

 

Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific fell another 0.2 degrees in the last week. This drop was sufficient to achieve La Nina conditions:

 

currentlevel

It was just seven months ago that the strongest El Nino in recorded history was set. The weatherfolks and their computers were anticipating that the Pacific Ocean would revert to a neutral status (+/- 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit). Now it looks like a full bore La Nina is in the immediate future.

There are a dozen or so computers that track the hourly buoy data from the Pacific. These computers are run by government weather gurus as well as some Universities. The goal is to accurately forecast the El Nino/La Nina cycles. It would be worth billions if they could do it. The rapid fall in ocean temps has had the computers working overtime. The most recent update has all of the models in either neutral or La Nina in the coming months:

 

predictions

Does it mean anything if we are to get a strong La Nina later this summer and into the fall? Based on recent history it does. In January of 1998 there was a record La Nina. By the summer of 98' the water temperatures had fallen rapidly and a strong La Nina developed. 2016 is shaping up to be a perfect repeat. This is how NOAA described the 1998 hurricane season:

 

Screen Shot 2016-06-02 at 3.10.47 PM

 

Time will tell if a few hurricanes are to make USA landfall. If they do, Florida is a prime target, as this year's crop of hurricanes will likely be Atlantic born, and head for the SE coast.

 

If it should come to pass that Florida gets hit/brushed by a few big storms there might be some collateral damages. Florida is already flooded with rain water. The largest lake, Okeechobee, is pumping water into canals that bring the excess water to the east and west coasts. The problem is that Okeechobee is filled with phosphates from farming. The result has been a huge toxic alga blooms. Floridians accuse the Feds for the problem. The argument is that the Army Corps of Engineers has not maintained the levees/dykes around Okeechobee so that the lake can no longer be safely filled to the brim.

 

flagov

There could easily be a few feet of water in central Florida if this year's La Nina proves to be as big as now predicted. Does an October Eco Disaster change the November voting in the key state of Florida?

 

Algae-Bloom-in-Florida-1020x610

 

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Toonces Feline's picture

Bruce,  I've always enjoyed your posts.  You're one of the best commentators on our rigged financial system and manipulated asset prices.  Please don't let it be such a long time before you post again.

I hope that prognostications of an active 2016 hurricane season are incorrect, for my own sake.  Just in case, I bought flood insurance on my Florida house a little over a month ago.

 

Umh's picture

The Corps of Engineers is perhaps the longest running ripoff in the goverment's arsenal.

Squid Viscous's picture

PDO is only one of many factors that influence atlantic hurricane formation...

Moe Hamhead's picture

Good to hear from you Bruce.

Burticus's picture

Decades ago, the Army Corps of Engiqueers turned the meandering Kissimmee River into a straight ditch, which now carries unfiltered runoff directly into lake Okeechobee, flocking up the lake and Everglades royally.  The engiqueers need to de-fag it back to the way it was, then get the flock out of the state of Florida.

Right now, algae blooms associated with fertilizer runoff and septic seepage have choked the Indian River Lagoon on Florida's east coast, turning parts of it into a stinking festering cesspool.  I'm not sure if Rick Scott can blame FedGov for that one.  At least he's not Jeb Bush...

The last two hurricane seasons have not produced much good surf.  Hopefully, this will be a better season for giant hurricane surf, while also wiping out Miami and all its Afrimexicubaricans too.

any_mouse's picture

East Salton Sea in the making!

ISawThatToo's picture
ISawThatToo (not verified) Jul 20, 2016 3:57 PM

I thought that the US tyranny killed La Nina a few years back. Or was that La Den? Or maybe La Nza?

I can't keep them all straight.

But I sure hope that they catch up with those La Nino bastards.

any_mouse's picture

La Raza, dump them into the ocean and see what happens. La Raza Nino or La Raza Nina.

mary mary's picture

Rick Scott is a great leader who never saw a problem he couldn't solve by blaming it on somebody else.

any_mouse's picture

He is not doing anything wrong. Previous governors all did the same thing. The only thing that could be said is that Scott s "extremely careless."

"What difference, at this point, does it make if it was the Corps of Engineers or not?"

Hillary provides such great sound bites.

mary mary's picture

I shouldn't have singled out Rick Scott, because South Florida has been screwed over and is being screwed over by practically everyone there.  Big Sugar is the worst, but other Big Ag is right behind it, plus the realtors/builders/developers who are still feverishly paving South Florida to build retirement homes right in the Hurricane Zone for all the idiots who made some money working up north and want to avoid taxes in their Social Security years.  Plus the Miami Cubans, who do NOT consider themselves USA citizens.  USA rulers, maybe, but not citizens.  Plus Disney, which has the same attitude as the Miami Cubans.  And the Corps, which was created to be, and still is, a brainless environment-killing gunslinger, destroying every productive natural resource in the nation to enrich one well-connected sociopathic business family or another.  For example, in South Florida: Big Sugar, Big Ag, and Big Real Estate.

kegman's picture

Causes may be different but Utah is experiencing the same algea phenomina.

http://stateparks.utah.gov/2016/07/15/utah-lake-closed-due-to-harmful-al...

cheech_wizard's picture

They should do what I do to keep my pond a sparkling blue color and free of pesky algae blooms...

http://www.thepondoutlet.com/concentrated-pond-dye-liquid-by-easypro-pon...

Standard Disclaimer: just wear gloves in case you accidently spill it so you don't end up looking like a smurf.

any_mouse's picture

In Democratic Peoples Republic of Minnesota, the lakes would bloom every freaking August. It is a yearly cycle. Called "Dog Days". Late August, early August, it varied.

YWMV

Dragon HAwk's picture

Heatwaves are a big pain, till somebody's power goes out, then it Escalates to Unbearable Royal Pain.

  fortunately the government will save us. All nonessential government employees will be sent home, or something.

peddling-fiction's picture

Talking about cut power. The U.S base personell there seem to continue sweltering in the hot Turkish summer.

http://turkey.usembassy.gov/sm-071616.html

any_mouse's picture

The USAF does not have back up power generation for their facilities? Which General Trigglypuff signed off on that deal?

I am sure Dick Cheney, Inc was paid to provide and install the generators.

peddling-fiction's picture

The base probably does have auxiliary power in certain areas. Still you need diesel to power that. Maybe they are flying it in. Maybe.

The homes where the airmen and their families live do not. Wifey is not happy.

ptoemmes's picture

Good to see you post Bruce. Hope all is well.

Since we KNOW the Oceans are warmingg (believe it or not) is an El Nino or La Nina based on a relative temperature change based on current term temps in the measurement area?  

I'd assume so as trackign a baseline or "average" does not seem to make sense to me.

 

Pete

Grandad Grumps's picture

I find it absolutely amazing that everyone takes for granted that El Nino and la Nina happen, but there is no agreed upon explanation that is given the public as to why they happen. Yes, we know that there is a temperature inversion in the Pacific ... but why? Is there some huge power source down there where Lemuria was supposed to be? Or what?

GeezerGeek's picture

Maybe it's all that magma under the earth's crust. It sure isn't a result of illusionary man-mdde global warming.

The Ram's picture

I live in South, FL and we have been very dry all summer and most of spring.  Where are the FL rains that they speak of??  

o r c k's picture

Here on the central east coast the rain has been way above normal. The pollution from Lake O has been debated for 4 decades. All of the once pristine brackish ecosystems around this region are dead--as is fishing tourism. Governments and politicians simply DO NOT CARE !!

thecondor's picture

We are getting all the rain here in TB.  All the fishing has come here. 

Steeley's picture

"Does an October Eco Disaster change the November voting in the key state of Florida?"

Can democrats swim?

(I'm going all in on Damon... http://products.damen.com/en/ranges/water-taxi )

Zero-Hegemon's picture

La Nina? Was that a rare Pokemon??

mkhs's picture

Medium-rare, with mushrooms

peddling-fiction's picture

Could I presume that you wash that down with Chianti?

cbxer55's picture

I'd prefer sumthin 100 proof myself. Maybe some Bacardi 151. ;-)

any_mouse's picture

A flaming shot of 151. Just don't dribble.

TheAnswerIs42's picture

A much better estimate of strength is the MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index)

A negaitive MEI index is a rather sure indicator for an incoming La Niña.

Here is a plot of that index, comparing the three last powerful El Niños (1982/83, 1997/98k, 2015/16):

It seems to be clear that the 2015/16 edition, though announced as “stronger than 1997/98”, in fact is even quite a bit weaker than even 1982/83.

See https://i1.wp.com/fs5.directupload.net/images/160718/2gc3nc6b.jpg?zoom=2

More Ammo's picture

So the sun is at its lowest output in years and the ocean temp surprisingly drops.  Whodathunkit.

 

Blank Sun Goes Eerily Quiet, No Sunspots seen, X-ray Output flatlines / Solar Update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQEvCTgirH0

 

ISawThatToo's picture
ISawThatToo (not verified) More Ammo Jul 20, 2016 4:02 PM

"So the sun is at its lowest output in years and the ocean temp surprisingly drops.  Whodathunkit."

ThoughtCrime!

any_mouse's picture

It is "fun" to watch AGW-bots dismiss the sun. "Fun" because I think Carbon Taxes and Credits are just political schemes cloaked in "science" and will not be at all fun, if enacted.

Much like the Holy Roman Empire was a political system wrapped in holy vestments.

Neither, "Holy", "Roman", nor "Empire".

Yeah, I am a AGW denier, in that I don't see any hard science based on hard evidence.

I also do not believe that disarming a majority white population will do anything at all about non-white population's use of illegal firearms to murder each other.

I aim to misbehave.

old naughty's picture

a "mouse" upsetting the "elephant" in the room !?

prymythirdeye's picture

Rick Scott looks like he's been on a bender.

any_mouse's picture

Chemo?

Polunium?

He looks like those health food fanatics that don't look healthy.

Big Corked Boots's picture

Considering he's in the Sunshine State, it looks like he hasn't been outdoors for a month.

Caleb Abell's picture

He never goes outside during the day.  If sunlight hits him, he starts to smoke, and if left outside too long, he will turn to dust.

GeezerGeek's picture

Going outside in Florida, particularly in the summer, can ruin one's appearance. Look what it did to Debbie Wasserman. If Scott had any hair it'd be all curly too.

zuuma's picture

He is channeling Uncle Fester, for sure.

Lumberjack's picture

I preder the track record of Weatherbell Analytics for long and short range predictions.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/final-2016-hurricane-forecast

Peak Finance's picture

ACE (Army corp of engineers) felt years ago that the rim barrier could no longer handle a full lake O. 

The ACE is in fact, right now, shoring up the rim barrier in a lot of different locations, fixing locks, and upgrading access and such.

This is an on-going multi-year project that does not have a lot to do with the state government or other local contiditions like the algae blooms. 

SafelyGraze's picture

this article is trying to say that, that Yeshua (peace be on him/her) was an hispanic girlchild.  in the pacific oceans

 

any_mouse's picture

Do they account for any effect from Fukashima on Pacific Ocean changes?

1998 was so last century.

zuuma's picture

Maybe I should print this off where it says we could have the deadliest hurricane season in a hundred years.

Then, in November, after a season of not one fucking hurricane, we will finally realize that the Sun is what actually drives our weather.  And the sun is on break right now.  Spotless, Solar Minimum.
Enjoy those beach houses. the 'canes ain't coming this year.

Fuck El nina &  El nino & tito & laShawn, etc.

lasvegaspersona's picture

Hey...we had a C flare this week (admittely after a few weeks of nutin')...so the sun ain't completely dead yet....kinda not looking too good though.