Caterpillar Retail Sales Decline For 43 Consecutive Months

Tyler Durden's picture

There was a time when Caterpillar was considered a key bellwether for trends in global heavy industries, and thus a proxy for the manufacturing sector. However, over the past 3 years that has not been the case for one simple reason: if one looks only at trends revealed by CAT's retail sales the global economy has been mired not in a recession but an unprecedented depression, one which has now lasted some 43 months. That's how long CAT has gone without a single positive month in global retail sales, well over double the duration of the acute collapse in demand following the financial crisis.


Since there is little we can add to this story that we haven't sasid for the past 42 months in our monthly monitoring of demand for CAT products, we will just lay out the breakdown:

  • Asia Pacific: down 7%,
  • Europe, Africa, and Middle East: down 4%
  • Latin America: down 38%
  • North America: down 12%
  • Total: down 12%

And while there was a silver lining in construction industries, wwhere Asia/Pac and EAME posted a welcome rebound of 1% and 3%, respectively, the collapse in demand for resource industries machine continues at an unprecedented pace:

  • Asia Pacific: down 28%,
  • Europe, Africa, and Middle East: down 24%
  • Latin America: down 41%
  • North America: down 31%
  • Total: down 30%

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RadioFlyer's picture
RadioFlyer (not verified) Jul 25, 2016 9:56 AM

Impossible, I've seen weeks and weeks worth of PANIC BUY CAT.



3rdWorldTrillionaire's picture

Have we ever considered that it has nothing to do with equipment demand from a needs perspective -- and more that it's CAT losing major market share against its foreign-produced rivals? I see plenty of Komatsu and others' dealerships popping up... Strong USD effect, etc...

Aubiekong's picture

Duh, who likes to eat caterpillars anyway, cant believe there is even a market for them...

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Hakuna Matata just doesn't have the same effect anymore..

Never One Roach's picture

It's what Democrats call a "jobless recovery."


ha ha ha ha!

Oldwood's picture

Definitely a "CAT-less" recovery. I think they might need more STIMULUS

bobsmith5's picture

Like the Baltic Dry Index this is a very fundamental global economic indicator.  Why is the the Dow Jones at 18,479.36?  It sure ain't the economic fundamentals driving it higher.

Mr. Cynic's picture

Don't forget another critical indicator of economic health, the Velocity of Money; M1, M2 and MZM.  M2 and MZM are at historic lows, and M1 is on life support at levels last seen during the Carter administration.

Barely a pulse.

On a brighter note, if Caterpillar would cut prices by 50% or more and provide a lifetime, bumper-to-bumper warranty and free shipping, I think sales would probably pick up a little.

ToSoft4Truth's picture

The cities need more stadiums.



tarsubil's picture

This growth stock has a low, low, low P/E of 37.6! Buy now while supplies last!

heisenberg991's picture

I need cat equipment to dig for dinosaur bones in my backyard. Not sure the zoning board would approve but oh well.

SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

If I would have had 43 straight months of declining sales, I would have gone bankrupt, been fired, credit shot to hell, cash/savings exhausted, auctioned my assets at fire sale prices and been kaput...

Bam_Man's picture

"You and I are not in The Big Club."

1stepcloser's picture

its Just a flesh wound!

Kaiser Sousa's picture

recall the list of the top stawks the Fed & ESF use to ramp and maintain the Dow Jones Propaganda Index....

1) Caterpillar
2) United Health
3) Nike
4) Microsoft
5) United Technologies
6) Verizon
7) Home Depot
8) Visa
9) American Express
10) WalMart
11) MCDonalds….


trollster's picture
trollster (not verified) Jul 25, 2016 10:14 AM

What about Kubota, Hitachi, Komatsu sales?

If they're up, then CAT just plain sucks and nobody's buying their product.

unklemunky's picture

In this industry nobody is up. There are no celebrations. The money printers have destroyed the industry from top to bottom in every corner of the globe. Cheap and free money flooded the industry and when the USD was weak commodities were the place to. The ore was mined, forecasts were in the nosebleed section and the biggest headfake in history has almost wiped out mining. Now 3 year old "new" iron sits waiting to be used but that will not happen until the stockpiles of mined minerals are drawn down and thats not going to happen until the economy picks up. Smells like a world war to me. Its the only move left to boost economic output. What a shame.

gaoptimize's picture

If CAT wants to improve its sales, they need to build a home garden/farm tractor for $5K.  The cheapest PTO tractor out their is $10K, and so gardners like me slave behind a lawn mower engine rototiller foot-by-foot, hour by hour.  I deserve a riding brush cutter and tiller for $5K, and every tractor company can go to hell and collapse as far as I'm cocerned until they build one for me.


Buy an antique FarmAll and install a PTO yourself.

Mr. Universe's picture

Or you could switch to a farming method that doesn't require all that tilling. Not that a PTO tractor isn't usefull for a ton of other stuff. Roto tilling just messes the soil up, and I did it for years. Look into Permaculture techniques, it takes some planning, but it's way easier than roto tilling every season.

Oldwood's picture

You can't buy a decent lawnmower for 5K. A front deck F series Kubota starts at $23K. 

While we see many things getting cheaper in price, anything that is not a piece of crap still costs an arm and a leg.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"If CAT wants to improve its sales, they need to build a home garden/farm tractor for $5K."

Two words - Grey Market.

Lot's of good subcompact tractors out there that will do all you want and more - for the price you are willing to pay.  Kubota, YanMar, Mitsubishi, Toyosha (Hinomoto).  Many of them can be found after having been reconditioned.

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

I picked up a used ford diesel, late 60s model for under $4k. Had it for 5 years and only changed oil, pto seal and water pump. Put about 50 hours per year on it and it just chuggs away....


Oberhelman, and the Jew Oligopoly, are holding out for World War Three where CATs will be required to clean up all of Europe after it gets leveled by Thermonuclear war.



hound dog vigilante's picture


CAT is in the LEASE, SERVICE & PARTS business, not retail sales.

If these numbers are just RETAIL SALES, not LEASE/SERVICE revenue, then this is a very misleading post.

Wahooo's picture

There's no depression.

ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

you are correct, it's a trench, and they keep diggin'

Chippewa Partners's picture

No CAT for my ranch until Amazon can drone one in for free!

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Jul 25, 2016 11:02 AM

Yes, but Big-Nig Nomics says this is bullish!!!

damicol's picture

It's a fucker isn't it when you abandon that Chinese factory you built and some smart Chinky finds your drawings and builds a state of the art factory with umpteen billions of Chinese state aid and starts producing them with the cab door hinges set an inch further apart and painted red and they get a declaration of original equipment, Chinese that is and start selling at than a $100,000 for a top of line loader.

Still globalists know best

Ink Pusher's picture

There's nuthin' like getting dry humped with not even so much as a courtesy reach around eh?

Looks good on CAT from my perspective, they can own it for the rest of the decade.

SMC's picture

Why would any self-respecting citizen of another country buy anything from the USSA?  

We're considered spies, meddlers, murderers, thieves, rapists, etc... a global bully pushing our agenda on weaker countries.  Our international support and financial structures are breaking down - the bill for a century of stupid is coming due.

Hitlary and the DNC for Prison 2016.

ElectroGravitic's picture

I bet their sales would pick up if they incorporated the StanMeyerSparkPlug in their product line.

Hey, Ford, John Deer, are you listening?

I am not going to buy a petro powered vehicle. Stuff-it.


Skiprrrdog's picture

Great idea, but I hope their product runs on salt water, as fresh water is getting as scarce as oil...

unklemunky's picture

The lie all along has been "emerging markets". Why would a company invest billions to go into China and they cant even bring the "profits" back home. Even if they do, they are worth 1/5 of the value and after taxes nada. Why bother? Even worse, there are no profits on non-chinese businesses in china. Chinese steal everything and sell it for huge discounts. Trump is right. This has to stop. A devaluation of a country's currency is simply a tarrif by another name. Free trade is only possible when it is fair trade made by honest players. They no longer exist.

Hubbs's picture

We may need CAT machines to bury all the bodies......

"No one left to bury here, no one to dig the holes, and here we can rest safely."

Dave Matthews and Tim Reynolds "One Sweet World" from Live at Luther College.

Skiprrrdog's picture

Well, I am thinking after the coming reset, when perhaps Russia will (hopefully) nuke Washington, DC and Virginia, we will need a bunch of machines like Cat D11 to raze and otherwise bury the entire city. Along with some of the bigger scrapers and grading machines...that should give CAT a boost, and give us some of those 'shovel ready' jobs that Obozo the Brown Clown lied about, and never made happen...

lasvegaspersona's picture

Sorry but your 'bell whether' can't be is not behaving. Bell Whethers must do gooder...otherwise they can't show us what we want to see.

PrimalScream's picture

CAT sales ... a good barometer for global trade.

Did u know that CAT sells a brand line of hats and shirts overseas?  The tractors arent moving, so they are selling apparel now.

PrimalScream's picture

CAT sales ... a good barometer for global trade.

Did u know that CAT sells a brand line of hats and shirts overseas?  The tractors arent moving, so they are selling apparel now.  No thats not a joke, they really opened CAT clothing stores.

Hard to believe.

Raffie's picture

I work there as a temp (because there is no jobs) picking parts.

The company offers NOTHING at all. Salt, pepper, sugar, creamer, plastic ware... NOPE.... you provide your own.

They offer ice and water only for free.

They are over the top safe freaks that boarder line paranoia.

You can only lose money for so long before they sell the company, cut the loss and take the cash.