Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Most In 2 Years

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite its supposed seasonal adjustment, Case-Shiller home price growth in May tumbled for the 3rd year in a row (in fact, with revisions, the 0.23% drop since March is the biggest drop since June 2014). This is the first consecutive home price drop since 2012. The almost unbelievable 'stability' of the 5-ish percent growth in Case-Shiller home prices for the last 2 years is impressive if only for its historical lack of precedence but May's 5.24% YoY rise in the slowest since Sept 2015.

May we suggest the PhDs get back to work on their seasonal adjustments:


Year over Year gains are the slowest since Sept 2015... but 'stable'


This is the biggest 2-month drop in prices since June 2014...

From the report:

Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last four months. In May, Portland led the way with a 12.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 10.7%, and Denver with a 9.5% increase. Eight cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2016 versus the year ending April 2016.


“Home prices continue to appreciate across the country,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Overall, housing is doing quite well. In addition to strong prices, sales of existing homes reached the highest monthly level since 2007 as construction of new homes showed continuing gains. The SCE Housing Expectations Survey published by the New York Federal Reserve Bank shows that consumers expect home prices to continue rising, though at a somewhat slower pace."


Regional patterns seen in home prices are shifting. Over the last year, the Pacific Northwest has been quite strong while prices in the previously strong spots of San Diego, San Francisco and Los Angeles saw more modest increases. The two hottest areas during the housing boom were Florida and the Southwest. Miami and Tampa have recovered in the last few months while Las Vegas and Phoenix remain weak. When home prices began to recover, New York and Washington saw steady price growth; now both are among the weakest areas in the country.

Charts: Bloomberg

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Ignatius's picture

What? You mean housing prices are not supposed to go up $1,000 a week?  Weird.

odatruf's picture

According to the emails I get from Zillow, $1,000 increases per week are the norm.

StackShinyStuff's picture

"God damn fiction!  Fiction I says!  Just like my wife's peni...oh nevermind" - Prez Obama

Pairadimes's picture

Adjusting for seasonality is no longer the priority. Adjusting for the narrative is.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

And the talk of housing pricing in the bust areas of last boom only account for nominal recovery.  Inflation adjusted is quite the different story.  

I just sold my house of 9 years (bought at the top don't you know) and it sold for $2,000 less than I bought it for back in 2007.  I no longer view homeownership as an investment, just a roof over one's head.  


onewayticket2's picture

$1k/week....that's even better than the $2500/year Obama promised me i'd SAVE in healthcare each year.....



I am Jobe's picture

Shocking. Fo;ls  in Austin, Texas are having swap parties bidding up home prices. Yeah this is for their children they say. Dumb Folks 

Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

AP says everything's great


US home prices rise at steady pace as sales heat up
moonman's picture

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. home prices continued their steady upward march in May, spurred by rising sales and a dwindling supply of available houses.

The Standard & Poor's CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 5.2 percent in May compared with a year ago. That is down from a 5.4 percent annual gain in April but still above last summer's growth rate

BandGap's picture


This from those masterminds at Yahoo! Finanace.

Make up your fucking minds.

TradingIsLifeBrah's picture
TradingIsLifeBrah (not verified) Jul 26, 2016 8:56 AM

I wish we could get some inflation /sarc

j0nx's picture

Sheeeit. Obviously this report hasn't spent any time in the No Va. area. Bubblicious here and houses are still selling in days. Lots of funny money around these parts and I suspect it's that way in many locations in the country still. It's still very much a tale of two countries here: the haves and the have nots.

honestann's picture

Seems like housing is roughly at the point just before Wyle E. Coyote zooms over the edge of the cliff and pauses for a short while before... LOOK OUT BELOW.

From all appearances the "look out below" phase would already have happened, but the predators-that-be in "government" and "financial institutions" are replaying all the manipulation games they did in 2006~2008, namely "low rates", "liar loans", "crazy ARMs", "no/low down payment", "110% LTV", etc.

They are trying to do what so many of us here predicted... apply any and all tape and bubble gum they can to keep the collapse from happening until the election is over.

Can they succeed?

That's the 64 trillion dollar question.