Why Reuters Is Tweaking Its Presidential Poll

Tyler Durden's picture

A 13-point lead for Hillary Clinton on July 14 has vanished in two weeks with Donald Trump now leading in the polls by 1 point. This is clearly unacceptable to the establishment and so Reuters/Ipsos is taking matters into its own hands... and 'tweaking' its polling methodology.

Trump has seena yuuge bounce since Comey and the convention as Clinton's bounce was marginal...

 

Something had to be done... so Reuters "tweaked" their methodology.

In a presidential campaign notable for its negativity, the option of “Neither” candidate appears to be an appealing alternative, at least to participants in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.

 

Many voters on both sides have been ambivalent in their support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, complicating the task of the pollsters trying to track the race.

 

That sentiment may help explain an apparent skew that recently emerged in the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. Given the choice, a relatively large group of voters opted for “Neither/Other” candidate compared with other major polls, leading to an underreporting of several percentage points for one or other of the two major contenders at times in the race.

 

As a result, Reuters/Ipsos is amending the wording of the choice and eliminating the word “Neither,” bringing the option in line with other polls.

Tests found eliminating the word “Neither” from the “Neither/Other” response increased Trump support by between 3 to 5 percentage points on any given day leading up to the Republican convention. It also increased Clinton’s support, but by a smaller margin.

Since the convention, however, Trump’s support seems to have solidified among wary supporters. Now, the “Neither” issue appears to be affecting Clinton in the survey.

But while Trump's numbers had been hurt by the "neither" question, the results of testing its removal shows a notably bigger negative bias towards Trump appears among Hispanics, College-Educated, and young voters:

As Reuters explains, in our view, the inclusion of the word “Neither” is capturing Soft Trump supporters who, if given such an option, prefer not to make a choice. Here it is important to note that the soft supporter phenomenon also affects Clinton, but to a much lesser degree.

Reuters/Ipsos poll currently has Trump 40.2%, Clinton 38.5%, but, Reuters reports, eliminating "Neither" from the "Neither/Other" answer produced a different result. In that case, Clinton was ahead, 40% to 36%.

The amended Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll will be published later Friday.

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Occams_Chainsaw's picture

I guess the winner will be decicded by who gets to count those votes after all.

 

Keyser's picture

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics... A mathematician can make the numbers do anything you want them to do... Just more bullshit in an attempt to sway public opinion... I don't it's going to work this time... 

knukles's picture

I just really want a Progressive to explain to me how all those original Trump supporters over a year ago, were a small insignificant band of angry, displaced, under-educated, bohunk, white racists.... how they've grown to such a tremendous percentage of the population in such a short period of time.
Please, the math

Oh shucks, I forgot.  Maff is an inconvenient truth to Progressives

Dear God, can't you please make 2 separate planets, one for us and the other for "them"?

mtl4's picture

Geez, looks familiar.......just tweak it until you get what you want, kinda like GDP, right?!

Manthong's picture

So how do you do a “if Trump then Clinton” function in C?

Tall Tom's picture

 

 

 

 

Ask the programmers at Diebold.

 

They are pros.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

10 reasons why I like Hillary:

  1. She's smart
  2. She's experienced
  3. She's a woman
  4. She's strong on Middle East foreign policy
  5. She stands up to Russia
  6. She supports minorities
  7. She supports gays
  8. She wants to raise the minimum wage
  9. She wants stricter gun control
  10. She wants to help more refugees

 

Accredited Times

krispkritter's picture

If the data doesn't fit, then you must edit.

FGH's picture

How are they going to edit the coming Trump LANDSLIDE?

AGuy's picture

"How are they going to edit the coming Trump LANDSLIDE?"

DieBold, Mail-in Bailouts. Photocopy lots of paper ballots.

 

Stainless Steel Rat's picture
Stainless Steel Rat (not verified) AGuy Jul 30, 2016 2:31 PM

Anyone who remembers MDB's old posts knows that he is not a troll, but completely sarcastic.

VAD's picture

Professional Trolls don't use the /sarc tag.  And if anyone is a pro, it's MDB.

Tall Tom's picture

 

 

 

 

Fuckin newbie?

 

You forgot your brain.

 

Go away.

Get off Tyler's porch. 

 

You do not belong here.

bobsmith5's picture

MDB is not sarc/. MDB is a government programmed bot to flood the internet with a socialist/communist/fascist narrative to confuse and dishearten those who are against the criminal cabal corporation which disguises itself as government.

Ten reasons to hate Killary.

1. Killary is not smart.  Her lust for power causes her to use her limited intelligence for destructive criminal purposes.

2. Her only experience is criminal conduct protected by being too big to prosecute.

3.  She is not a woman.  Her psychology is that of a man who is psychotic and must have power at any cost.  Just because she has female plumbing does not make her a woman.

4.  She supports ISIS and take tens of millions of dollars from the Saudi's, and along with the Bushes has made a complete mess of the middle east.

5.  She is a warmonger and will cause WW3 with Russia.  She is a puppet of the military industrial complex and the globalist.

6.  She has done more to destroy, impoverish, and enslave minorities than any other human on the planet.

7.  She supports ISIS who throws gays off of buildings and shoots them up in night clubs.  She is for Sharia law because it gives unlimited power and control to those in power, something she lust for with an unbridled passion.

8.  She wants to remove the second amendment from the constitution so that nobody will be able to resist her Nazi style police state.

9.  She wants to raise the minimum wage so that more first time job seekers will have no means of obtaining entry level jobs so they can work their way up to higher wages, therefore causing more unemployment especially amongst the minorities and youth.

10.  She wants to import more ISIS supporting Muslims so that they will become a majority and start to Islamize America to accept Sharia law she loves so much.

exartizo's picture

Dear Mr. MDB,

I"m not sure why you...

1. Unilaterally
2. Undeniably
3. Unwaveringly
4. Unbelievably
5. Underwhelmingly
6. Unmitigatingly
7. Undesirably
8. Uninterestingly
9. Unwittingly
10. Unpatriotically

...insist on being so wrong so often sir.

Sincerely,

A ZH Reader

JRobby's picture

He wants to take up space and get people like you to respond which takes up more space.

It works because important comments get pushed back to page 2 and 3. See MDB is always close to the top. Obviously MDB sits in front of a couple of computers refreshing links with his left hand so he can post near the top when a new article is posted while his right hand works his cock.

So you can see how great his input is.

 

 

True Blue's picture

That technique is called "forum sliding".

JRobby's picture

It's called "beating off" It is an activity that Jerk Off's engage in

beemasters's picture

10 reasons why I dislike Hillary:

1. She's smart. She's managed to fool her followers.
2. She's experienced in lying....very!
3. She's a woman. Ok, but not my type.
4. She's strong on Middle East foreign policy; so strong in fact that she created strong terrorist groups.
5. She stands up to Russia but buckles to Wall Street and military industrial complex.
6. She supports minorities by saying so.
7. She supports gays only after she finds out she's one herself.
8. She wants to raise the minimum wage but tax it too.
9. She wants stricter gun control but can't control her own husband's.
10. She wants to help more refugees because she knows she's responsible for their plights due to her sloppy, special-interest-group driven policies.

Bonus: 11. She's a Clinton. And we know how they launder bribes, don't we?

DullKnife's picture

MillionDollarMentallyDisabled is like the guy who keeps telling the same joke over and over and over and.....

Tiresome and boring.

Like a 3rd rate comedian who never changes his routine.

Yawn.

 

eatthebanksters's picture

I think he works for Ben Rhodes...

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

There are times that I swear this is just one of the Tylers having fun.

Or a gifted writer doing the same, honing his craft.

astroloungers's picture

ding ding ding ding ding.......winner winner chicken dinner

Tall Tom's picture

 

 

 

 

Don't you think that being a Muslim, as yoiu claim, is a little inconsistent with supporting the queers?

 

Don't you, being a Muslim, like Iran's solution to faggotry?

 

Check out this video clip of Iran's solution...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpAZyN2t3LU

 

No they do not have a problem with queers in Iran

 

They have a solution.

 

Don't you agree with your Islamic brothers?

 

Don't you agree with the Quran?

 

Don't you agree with the Sunnah, the sayings of the Prophet?

 

Among the Quranic verses quoted as demonstrating the importance of Hadith/Sunna to Muslims are

Say: Obey Allah and obey the Messenger,[10][13][14][15]

Which appears in several verses: 3:32, 5:92, 24:54, 64:12[16]

Your companion [Muhammad] has not strayed, nor has he erred, Nor does he speak from [his own] inclination or desire.[17][18]

"A similar (favour have ye already received) in that We have sent among you a Messenger of your own, rehearsing to you Our Signs, and sanctifying you, and instructing you in Scripture and Wisdom, and in new knowledge.[19]

"Ye have indeed in the Messenger of Allah a beautiful pattern (of conduct) for any one whose hope is in Allah and the Final Day, and who engages much in the Praise of Allah."[8]

 

See? To proclim that you follow the faith of a Religion then you must agree with these important precepts...THEIR GUIDE AND GUIDANCE.

 

And what does the Prophet instruct that you do with a Homosexual in the Hadith or otherwise known as the Sunnah?

 

The Sunan Abu Dawud, named after its editor, is another reliable collection of hadith. Ibn Abbas reports the following about early Islam and Muhammad’s punishment of homosexuals: . . . "If you find anyone doing as Lot’s people did, kill the one who does it, and the one to whom it is done" (vol. 3, p. 145, no. 4447)


 

If the Holy Quran states that the Prophet has not erred or speak of his own desire then the Prophet is speaking the Will of Allah.

 

And if the Prophet speaks the will of Allah when he instructs you to kill the sodomite and then you do not do it then you are either ignorant or willful.

 

And how can you respect a woman who will not do the Will of Allah but wants to support their "rights" and reward them for their griveious abhorrent sins against Allah and his Prophet?

 

You must be consistent when practicing a faith. One cannot just proclaim it and then deny the basic precepts or then one is just a hypocrite or absolutely delusional and neither of those attributes will not find any favor with Allah during the Day of Judgment, will it?

 

And my bet is that you THOUGHT that I have no clue about "your" faith. Yeah. You know.  That faith which you do not practice?

 

While I do not have any agreement with the Levant and most tenents of Sharia Law I must report that their leaders demonstrate great faith and loyalty to their God and give due respect.

 

I wish that the Christians would demonstrate an even greater Zeal to please God Almighty.

 

I am most pleased that you responded to my post so that we may open up some real dialog about your support of a pedophile lesbian and about how it is blasphemous to Allah..

 

And do I really need remind you what the Prophet has spoken about the blasphemous?

 

Do you think that there might be some real Muslims reading this site? Are you on their list?

 

 

 

Tall Tom's picture

 

 

 

 

 

Was there a REASON why that MDB posted underneath my snark question of "Ask the programmers at Diebold."?

 

That is the subject which he was attempting obfuscate by the use of redirection.

 

 

He deserved that shredding.

 

And if he has the balls to respond I will use those religious documents and shred him some more.

 

I am a student of Sun Tzu. I study my enemy.

 

 

monk27's picture

None of those are true. Keep trolling !

astroloungers's picture

Could you do the list Spinal Tap style and make it go to 11 ?

researchfix's picture

 

  1. She wants to help more refugees... coming to Europe. Fixed that for you.  
Vageling's picture

I'll humor you and bite. You're funny! Add clown to your name. Human nature. Maybe you should look into that. 

eatthebanksters's picture

10 reasons I don't like Hillary:

1. She's so fucking stupid she kept top secret info on her personal server

2. She so experienced that she fucked up Libya, Syria, Egypt and allowed ISIS to grow into a major threat to the world

3. She's a cunt

4. She's a fool on all foreign policy, including her stupid reset button with Russia

5. She's Putin's bitch along with her former boss, Obozo.

6. She doesn't support minorities she supports extremist cop killers

7. She supports regimes that murder gays

8. She'll raise minimum wage a couple bucks an hour while enriching her Wall Street friends beyond anyone's imagination.

9. She wants to take away our guns so she can prevent a rebellion when she becomes a tyrannical dictator

10. She doesn't care about refugees, she wants to import more democrat voters who will bring terrorists with them.

MDB you reallly should pull your head out of your ass...

 

401K of Dooom's picture

Are you part of Amazon's Affiliate program?  You may be eligible for a discount with the amount of work you have done for Chairman Bezos.  At least you should get a free subscription to the Washington Post.

401K of Dooom's picture

Hey MDB, you should get a job with MSNBC. I think they could use your talents in self-deception and subterfuge.  That or go to work for FaceBook.

HenryHall's picture

The use of voting machines more or less guarantees a dishonest election.

The British do it the right way - paper ballot slips counted by hand.

Dormouse's picture

Recess is over. It's nap time, then FINGER PAINTING!!

City_Of_Champyinz's picture

One reason to detest MDB:

 

1. Fucking useless idiot link spammer.

Poundsand's picture

It's amazing to me that MDB still gets people to bite on those posts.  You would think that after being here for any length of time at all, people would see the sarcasm and appreciate it for what it is.  But alas...

 

exartizo's picture

...sarcasm requires the use of /sarc tags to be credible and honest.

without them one must reasonably conclude that no sarcasm is intended.

the rules of good grammar and good writing etiquette should not be broken or ignored, but perhaps by single occasional solitary mistake.

otherwise one is reliably and understandably relegated to the position of

DOLT

or worse.

Tall Tom's picture

 

 

 

 

If you do not understand my satire then then it is YOU that has a problem with reading comprehension.

 

That problem is generally related to ILLITERACY.

 

ILLITERACY is not the inability to see the symbols and formulate words, in order to read sentences, complex sentences, paragraphs, eassys and, ideally, books.

 

The major cause of illiteracy is that the one who suffers from it has not read books or the classics.

 

Furthermore you demonstrate that illiteracy as you confuse sarcasm with satire. You do not know the proper definitions of the two terms.

 

When I write satire I can employ some sarcasm but it is not a requirement.

 

Read Jonathon Swift's, "A Modest Proposal". 

 

There are no (/sarcam) tags andwhere in that brief essay.

 

And I would not consider Jonathon Swift to be a dolt. He was a brilliant satirist of his day.

 

My favorite contemporary satirist was Art Buchwald who was an editorialist for the Washington Post. As a preteen and teenager I would wait for that newspaper hoping to find a gem of a column authored by him on the editorial pages.

 

I will finish from my favorite line from the movie Idiocracy. READ BOOKS.

Umh's picture

MDB & you for that matter are nowhere near as clear as Jonathan Swift was. Readers should not have to know you well to understand what you mean.

Arnold's picture

U R N IDIOT.

Better for you?

Tall Tom's picture

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-29/why-reuters-tweaking-its-presid...

 

This post above is an example of biting sarcasm as it is directed towards a person, namely Million Dollar Bonus. It is well crafted as I point out MDB's inconsistencies with his proclamation.

 

https://accredited-times.com/2016/03/30/why-i-converted-to-islam/

 

You need not know that I am NOT Muslim to understand the sarcasm.

 

In fact you even need not know that it is sarcasm...at all...as the response was not addressed to anyone but Million Dollar Bonus.

 

All you need to know, if you want to understand my response addressed directly to MDB, is that Million Dollar Bonus proclaimed his faith as being a Muslim and yet has little, if any, knowledge about his proclamation. 

 

See? I do not care that you have any inkling of understanding about my response to MDB. It may come as a shock but the World is not entirely about yuu.

 

I will not include a "tag" and I cannot care any less if you understand it...or not...as the post was not directed to you.

 

(BUT THIS POST IS DIRECTED TO YOU.)

 

You are ILLITERATE as you cannot discern the difference between sarcasm and SATIRE.

 

SARCASM IS ALWAYS PERSONAL. It is used in a personal attack.

 

Sarcasm may be employed as an element of satire but it is no way required.

 

So if you have ever bothered to acquaint yourself with the Islamic faith, or the "Political Positions" which MDB promotes, then you will also understad that MDB is not a Muslim, and thus his entire post is so outrageous and INCREDIBLE that it must be SATIRE.

 

Well written SATIRE is always outrageously incredible. That is a requirement.

 

And to give you another clue...

 

The best insult delivered is to the person who is not bright enough to even realize that he has been insulted while it it all too apparent to the educated and well refined.

 

Are you attempting to be a sophisticate? I am really impressed. Why don't you be mundane instead? That would better serve you and your credibility.

 

You will find that there are too few here on Zerohedge who are mundane. Personally I'd seek them out so that I'd be in familiar company. But many of the mundane, here, just do not last.

 

Now am I being sarcastic?

 

Perhaps you ought to hang out with the mundane.

piliage's picture

Perhaps the problem is that many of the posters on ZH are basement dwelling, conspiracy spinning morons who wouldn't understand irony and sarcasm if it was spoon fed to them line by line in crayon and scratch and sniff?

MDB is a flat out troll. Anyone who doesn't get that shouldn't be allowed to use sharp objects without supervision.

NidStyles's picture

Has more to do with him just being annoying, and after a while of so many junked posts he should have been banned already, as that is the ZH way.

 

He's still here though, and it lost it's charm about two years ago.