Hillary Lead Over Trump Surges After Reuters "Tweaks" Poll

Tyler Durden's picture

Over the past week, there was a troubling development for the establishment: Trump was soaring in the polls. In fact, in the widely watched, Reuters/IPSOS poll, for the first time Trump had taken an inexcusable 1 point lead following the Republican National convention.

 

So, as we reported last night, something had to be done. And something was done: Reuters "tweaked" its polling methodology.

As Reuters explained, "in a presidential campaign notable for its negativity, the option of “Neither” candidate appears to be an appealing alternative, at least to participants in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. Many voters on both sides have been ambivalent in their support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, complicating the task of the pollsters trying to track the race. That sentiment may help explain an apparent skew that recently emerged in the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. Given the choice, a relatively large group of voters opted for “Neither/Other” candidate compared with other major polls, leading to an underreporting of several percentage points for one or other of the two major contenders at times in the race."

As a result, Reuters/Ipsos is amending the wording of the choice and eliminating the word “Neither,” bringing the option in line with other polls.

Here is the real reason for the methodology change: according to Reuters "the inclusion of the word “Neither” is capturing Soft Trump supporters who, if given such an option, prefer not to make a choice. Here it is important to note that the soft supporter phenomenon also affects Clinton, but to a much lesser degree."

As a result, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll - pre Friday evening - had Trump 40.2%, Clinton 38.5%, but, on a "pro forma" basis, eliminating "Neither" from the "Neither/Other" answer produced a different result. In that case, Clinton was ahead, 40% to 36%.

In other words, the real reason for the "tweak" was to push Hillary back in the lead simply due to a change in the question phrasing methodology.

With the first new poll under the new polling "approach" due to be released last night, we predicted that it would show a dramtic rebound for Hillary, just as Trump was picking up steam, and in doing so changing the entire frontrunner narrative from the ground up. 

Sure enough, here are the results of the "revised" poll released on Friday night.

From Reuters:

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton held a 6- percentage-point lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll with new wording that was released on Friday, the day after she formally accepted her party's nomination for the Nov. 8 election.

 

Nearly 41 percent of likely voters favor Clinton, 35 percent favor Trump, and 25 percent picked "Other," according to the new July 25-29 online poll of 1,043 likely voters, which overlapped with the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The poll has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

 

The presidential tracking poll reflects a slight change of wording from previous surveys, replacing the “Neither/Other” option given to respondents with just “Other.” An internal review had found the word “Neither” has, at times, siphoned support away from one or the other candidate.

Or rather, it has "siphoned" support from Hillary to Trump, something which the "internal review" had clearly noticed, and promptly stopped.

Thank of it as "seasonally adjusted", or simpler yet, "non-GAAP" polling. From Reuters:

 

The pro forma, or "slightly revised" Reuters/Ipsos poll goes back only one week, and all prior data appears to have been eliminated.

 

And that, dear readers, is how one tumbles from a 1-point lead to a 6-point loss in 3 days thanks to the miracle of a polling "adjustment." Because if it works to "boost" GDP, why shouldn't it work for Hillary as well?

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Bumpo's picture

Polls Don't Vote

Zer0head's picture

The pressure on David Thomson must have been incredible -

http://thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/board-of-directors.html

I wonder how well he gets on with Michael Bloomberg

 

http://www.forbes.com/profile/david-thomson/

philipat's picture

They did the same in the UK with Brexit polls. The MSM also banned "Exit polls" because the exit polls, being anonymous, never lie. Fortunately, in the UK, voting is still using paper ballots which can be recounted and verified as necessary.

In the US with Diebold voting machines, perhaps less so......?

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) 847328_3527 Jul 30, 2016 12:21 PM

"Trump is going to WIN" is their latest tactic to scare them into Clinton voting.

Keyser's picture

And the hits just keep coming... TPTB will stop at nothing to tip the scales in Hillary's favor... I don't know why they are scared, the fix is in and they know it... 

johngaltfla's picture

If you believe the reports, you believe the earnings just reported also.

WordSmith2013's picture

http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=44665

 

SOS ! ! !

 

Trump Landslide Victory Predicted: Clinton Can Only Win By Stealing the Election — Voting Fraud Must Be Monitored!


Save_America1st's picture

just like everything else that the media, banksters, gov-scum, and globalists manipulate and lie about that doesn't agree with reality.  There are no radical muslims, there are no musloid rapists, the economy is booming, the banks are solvent, MBS and CDS were rated "AAA" when they were total junk, the Brexit vote wasn't going to pass....on and on and on and on.  

CNN, MSNBS, CNBS, etc. stopped accepting how horrible their ratings were and blamed the rating agencies rather than working to improve their credibility, etc. etc.

But as we all know very fucking well...and this is something that all the assholes I've mentioned above need to understand:

You can deny reality...but you can't deny the consequences of denying reality.

This will blow up in their faces (hopefully) just like the Brexit vote did.  The major problem w/ our elections compared to the Brexit vote is that we won't be able to mandate all voting is by hand counted paper votes.  Too much electronic corruption and voter fraud could fuck up everything for Trump if they don't get a handle on it.

Another problem is that the RNC will most likely partner up with the DNC in order to steal the votes away from Trump.  Could be the first time in history where we see both sides working for the Demoscum in order to keep a guy like Trump out of the Whore House.  

Many more seriously rude awakenings are in store for these scumbags.  We've all heard of MOPE:  Management of Perception Economics

Until November MOPE will stand for:  Management of Perception of Elections

Stainless Steel Rat's picture
Stainless Steel Rat (not verified) Save_America1st Jul 30, 2016 3:48 PM

Elections are so often won by a few thousand votes these days...  I am just going to lie on any of these polls to keep them complacent.

jeff montanye's picture

thanks again for the cut in ssr.

does anyone else think that the guts of the post above are self-contradictory?  they say:

"the inclusion of the word “Neither” is capturing Soft Trump supporters who, if given such an option, prefer not to make a choice. Here it is important to note that the soft supporter phenomenon also affects Clinton, but to a much lesser degree.

As a result, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll - pre Friday evening - had Trump 40.2%, Clinton 38.5%, but, on a "pro forma" basis, eliminating "Neither" from the "Neither/Other" answer produced a different result. In that case, Clinton was ahead, 40% to 36%."

 

so having "neither" in let "soft trump supporters" choose it instead of trump.  but eliminating it, making the softs actually pick trump, increased clinton's percentage???

 

how exactly does that work?

El Vaquero's picture

Polls shouldn't be trusted this election cycle.  Even for honest pollsters, good luck figuring out who the fuck is going to be a likely voter this time around and who isn't.  That's kinda important when conducting a poll. 

 

And to answer your question, Jeff, some of the people being polled are just going to stay home and not vote, so the choices presented to them don't really represent reality in terms of how the election could turn out. 

BeanusCountus's picture

You have hit it on the head. "Likely voters" do not include men 18-45 that have not voted in 20 years. They dont bother, waste of time as the candidates are the same. My guess is this group will turn out this year and vote for Donald. We will see.

Kayman's picture

The crooked pollsters shilling for HilLiary should ask one question:

"Heads for HilLiary or Tails not for Trump ?"

It would simplify their corrupt asses on the sampling scale, for keeping the system of stealing from the voiceless and enriching the free riders.

Hopefully their obvious attempt to beat the drum for HilLiary will motivate an enraged public to vote for Trump- exactly the opposite of their objective.

By the way, if not for Roy Thompson, David would be just another nobody.

HedgeJunkie's picture

Got a call from Reuters today, asking for my opinion on questions.  I let them have it.

Problem is my opinion didn't fit their little scheme of things.

Something like shoot the bitch didn't falll into their polls.

And they didn't like my answer that polls are politicized and slanted and don't mean a fucking thing.

I told them to call me back, anytime, if they wanted an employed person to answer their idiot questions.

Looking forward to the call back.

Son of Loki's picture

Wait until they start polling American citizens.

bigkahuna's picture

Neither red nor blue team want him to win. Both sides are up to their ears in corruption and if caught, well there will be jail time for their lily asses- they can't have that.

They are going to rig this like there is no tomorrow - because if Trump wins, there is no tomorrow for these crooks.

jeff montanye's picture

just as ralph nader said, it's not the things the parties disagree on that are the problems, it's the things they agree on.

ElectroGravitic's picture

Dr. Jill Stein for President 2016.

http://www.jill2016.com/plan

Break up the big banks, and return the money they stole.

 

Manthong's picture

mark to malarky

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

SOS ! ! !

 

Trump Landslide Victory Predicted: Clinton Can Only Win By Stealing the Election

 

If it gets too bad.....flee Shenandoah.....and come to Galt's Gulch.

 

 

WordSmith2013's picture
Shock poll: Nate Silver’s election forecast now has Trump winning

http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=44630

Keyser's picture

I believe the WikiLeaks poll over the Reuters poll, which shows Trump getting 50% of the vote and beating Clinton who only got 28% of the vote... 

"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act"

onewayticket2's picture

Straight out of Animal Farm......

Son of Loki's picture

Media is starting to panic more:

 

Why ‘white trash’ Americans are flocking to Donald Trump

 

http://nypost.com/2016/07/30/why-white-trash-americans-are-flocking-to-d...

 

I guess they imply the black trash is supporting Clinton?

Handful of Dust's picture

Austin gets some "Change it can beleive in"

 

Gunfire in Austin, Texas, leaves one woman dead, three hospitalized: officials

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/multiple-victims-reported-active-shooter-aust...

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

‘white trash’ Americans

 

Clear off the rails.

 

.....and spinning kittys in the ditch.

J S Bach's picture

Take it with a grain of salt.  The media (including ZH) love to use words like "surge", "soar", "collapse", and "plummet" when it's only a tiny percent.  Just sensationalism for the shock value to the sheep.

jeff montanye's picture

carefully sewing every stitch,

distinguishing each which from which, 

list her crimes without a hitch,

getting goods from every snitch,

not falling for obama kitsch,

explaining how she got so rich,

waiting for the real sweet pitch,

no green or libertarian niche,

counting votes without a glitch,

then no season of the bitch.

Croesus's picture

You don't need to do math...these polls are as fake as Shillary is, just like BLS statistics, FED policies, Stawk earnings, "Gun Control", "The War on Drugs",  "The War on Terror", and "Human Resources" are. 

They all have a vested interest in keeping the lies going, but all lies point to the truth.

 

Chupacabra-322's picture

Trump will crush her come debate time & live on TV expose her for the Pure Evil Criminal Psychopath she is. Live, for all the public to see, unscripted

Croesus's picture

@ Chupacabra: 

I'm hoping (and believing) you're right. 

I hope Trump saves up all of his ammo, and blasts her with both barrels when the time comes. I also hope he has some choice words for the "Shilling for Shillary" assholes in the media. 

With any luck, he'll destroy the shred of credibility they have left, too. 

It's not surprising that the media shills for this treasonous piece of shit...considering who their real "editor in Chief" is.

HedgeJunkie's picture

Fuck this niceity.

I hope he pulls a .45 and shoots the bitch, live, on national TV.

I may consider voting for him at that point.

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

I'm trying to think of something to pull you off the ledge......I've got nothing.

eurogold's picture

HedgeJunkie...your comment made Me hard! I love it!

Bob's picture

I would love to see just that. 

I hope Trump starts practicing (on the admittedly weak assumption he ever has practiced) debating while following the rules of speaking for x minutes, listening for x minutes during rebuttal, etc.  Implicit in that timed structure, I think, is that you keep your yap shut while the other guy is using his minutes.  If you think back to the entertainment that was the Republican debates, he made much hay by running  roughshod over those rules. 

If I were his opponent, I'd first ridicule and shame him for being so out of control and lacking any capacity for it; when that didn't work (we all know Donald has no capacity for shame, hell, the very notion only incites him further), I'd insist that the appointed "Moderators" actively enforce the rules . . . even cutting off his fucking mic at the second debate if necessary.  He'd look like a tyrannical child by not falling into line short of that, but failing to would say more than words--even his own--ever could.

Donald can be played into fucking himself by somebody with sense who is willing to use it. 

MsCreant's picture

I am surprised at how often he looks like he has fucked himself, and then it gets spinned positively. He has poor impulse control, which is scary for a guy with his finger on a trigger, but the thing is, he looks authentic. He is not stopping to think about what he should say, or what you want to hear. He is going off the top of his head--almost. So he seems less manipulative. 

Most of the time you backtrack one of his seeming gaffs, you will see that others have put an over generalization into his mouth. He does not want to ban Muslims, he wants to stop the flow until we understand it better. 

I think someone can do as you suggest. 

I don't think Hillary has it in her to do it across the board with all the issues. She has to be fake, because her core motivations are something she has to hide. We feel it every time she talks. Not to mention she is just boring and preachy. All the worst stereotypes of a post-menopausal female. Some women really find their power in this period of life. She projects entitlement and bitterness. 

Bob's picture

I certainly hope to see her completely dissembled.  That's why I'm motivated to see how it could go wrong and to picture Trump's weaknesses--everybody has them.  Hell, even your strengths can be played as weaknesses if you're not on top of the process.  Look what is being made of his eminently sane statements about Russia. 

But Killary didn't get where she is without being massively supported by a team and rehearsing her lines. They will drill her night and day until she assumes the personality--and who does that better than a well-practiced sociopath--needed to frame his visible weaknesses, as in visible right there on that stage, in the most advantageous way possible. He can't tweet himself out of something or deny a statement two minutes after he said it in real time on live tv. And there's not a line of clowns around him fighting to ride on what he said to raise their own stature or divert attention from him as there were in the primary debates. 

I hope he comes with a new game in terms of self-discipline. 

I really do. 

Trump: Mother-fucker, you should hire me!

HedgeJunkie's picture

I repeat myself.

 

Fuck this niceity.

I hope he pulls a .45 and shoots the bitch, live, on national TV.

I may consider voting for him at that point.

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

by somebody with sense

 

There's the catch.....

Here2Go's picture
Here2Go (not verified) Chupacabra-322 Jul 30, 2016 6:20 PM

which will be spun, in the media, the next day, as a WIN by Hillary...

 

& then the people will go... "Huh, what? Oh look DWTS is on!"

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Chupacabra-322 Jul 30, 2016 11:11 PM

Hillary takes the cake for the worst canidate for President in US history.

A known criminal, for over 30 yrs.

Handful of Dust's picture

Americans love The Donald and hate the Crooked Hillary Clinto and her Crooked husband Bill Clinton.

drendebe10's picture

How great it would be if the despicable lying cheating corrupt criminal syphlitic cunt got her buttons pushed and revealed her true nature goung ballistic on natiinal TV for all to see her commonly unbridled anger but they will give her drugs to keep her calm.  Too bad. 

HedgeJunkie's picture

I was at a dollar general strore today.

I bought some shit that cost $5.40 and I gave the clerk $11.00, it took this clerk AND his manager to figure out that I was owed $5.60.

I said, kid, you give me a five, two quarters and a dime.  It was so far beyond him he freaked.

No shit, no lie.

Welcome to the Matrix.

MalteseFalcon's picture

The revised poll is a fraud for two more reasons:

The trend for Trump and Hitlery is wrong. 

Trump has been coming on strongly over the last 45 days.

There is no way that third party candidates are going to poll 15%.

Don't expect any of the MSM polls to show Trump in a landslide position, but that is exactly how this election ends.

Trump landslide.

TBT or not TBT's picture

A lot of people in single party states like California will vote for third party, write-in, or not vote for president at all. They will argue that Clinton will win the state anyway, and will signal disgust with both major party candidates accordingly.

If it were going to be even close, these disgusted people might vote for their least worst choice D or R. But it will not be close in solid blue FSA-public sector union locked states.