DoD Admits US Global Hegemony Threatened By China, Russia In "Persistently Disordered World"

Tyler Durden's picture

By 2035, the US could find itself in an environment where Russia or China may match or even exceed the West's military and economic might in some areas, taking advantage of a “disordered and contested world,” the Pentagon’s research unit said...

Conflict and war in 2035 cannot be understood by the simple identification of a set of individual trends and conditions. Instead, the intersection and interaction of many discrete trends and conditions will ultimately change the character of future conflict and illuminate the reasons why the Joint Force may be called on to address threats to U.S. national interests. In fact, conflict in 2035 is likely to be driven by six specific and unique combinations of trends and conditions.

 

Each of these Contexts of Future Conflict creates a troubling problem space for the Joint Force. They include:

 

1. Violent Ideological Competition. Irreconcilable ideas communicated and promoted by identity networks through violence.

 

2. Threatened U.S. Territory and Sovereignty. Encroachment, erosion, or disregard of U.S. sovereignty and the freedom of its citizens from coercion.

 

3. Antagonistic Geopolitical Balancing. Increasingly ambitious adversaries maximizing their own influence while actively limiting U.S. influence.

 

4. Disrupted Global Commons. Denial or compulsion in spaces and places available to all but owned by none.

 

5. A Contest for Cyberspace. A struggle to define and credibly protect sovereignty in cyberspace.

 

6. Shattered and Reordered Regions. States unable to cope with internal political fractures, environmental stressors, or deliberate external interference.

 

Each context includes elements of both contested norms and persistent disorder. However, their relative importance will vary depending on the objectives of potential adversaries and the capabilities available to them. Dissatisfaction with the current set of international rules, norms, and agreements will cause revisionist actors to make their own – and attempt to enforce them. Meanwhile, the loss of legitimacy or strength by governing authorities will permit other actors to effectively employ coercion and violence in pursuit of power or to further their beliefs.

As RT reports, a new foresight report from The Pentagon’s research division, the Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC), warns that within just 20 years, the US and its allies will live in a world where shaping a global order the way they have since the end of the Cold War would be increasingly difficult, if not impossible.

“The future world order will see a number of states with the political will, economic capacity, and military capabilities to compel change at the expense of others,” reads the paper entitled “The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World.”

 

“Rising powers including for example, China, Russia, India, Iran, or Brazil have increasingly expressed dissatisfaction with their roles, access, and authorities within the current international system,” it states.

 

“Russia will modernize its land, air, and sea-based intercontinental nuclear forces” and make use of deterrent operations such as “snap nuclear exercises, bomber flights, and strategic reconnaissance overflights into US territory,” the Pentagon’s researchers predict.

The report admits Russia and China are among countries dissatisfied “with the current Western-derived notion of international order.”

Russia, China, India, and others, labeled “revisionist states” in the report, would promote alternate international alliances, while the West’s shrinking resources would also have an impact on Washington’s dominance across the globe.

“Although seemingly insignificant today, organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union could grow as China, Russia, India, and others turn to these multinational groups to reorder international rules in their favor.”

 

“Demographic and fiscal pressures will continue to challenge NATO’s capacity and capability,” the paper warns. “In Asia, perceptions of reduced US commitment may encourage current allies and partners to pursue unilateral military modernization efforts or explore alternative alliances and partnerships.”

However, though the Pentagon’s report states that “no power or coalition of powers has yet emerged to openly oppose US global influence and reach,” it claims “the United States will operate in a world in which its overall economic and military power, and that of its allies and partners, may not grow as quickly as potential competitors.”

A number of states “can generate military advantages locally in ways that match or even exceed that of the Joint Force and its partners,” while American technological superiority “will be met by asymmetric, unconventional, and hybrid responses from adversaries.”

Offering a vision of the world in 2035, the paper says in conclusion it is unclear if the US “can be simultaneously proficient at addressing contested norms and persistent disorder with currently projected capabilities, operational approaches, and fiscal resources.”

“There may be times when it is more appropriate to manage global security problems as opposed to undertaking expensive efforts to comprehensively solve them.”

Moscow has repeatedly denied allegations of it harboring global ambitions as opposed to that of the US.

Russia “is not aspiring for hegemony or any ephemeral status of a superpower,” President Vladimir Putin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last year, adding: “We do not act aggressively. We have started to defend our interests more persistently and consistently."

Earlier this year, Russia adopted a new edition of its foreign policy doctrine, which mentions a shift towards a multipolar and a “polycentric” world.

“A transition to polycentric architecture should be ideally based on the interaction of leading centers of power,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in April. He added however, that he was not sure if that was achievable.

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Full Joint Chiefs of Staff Report below...

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monk27's picture

What is that "American technological superiority" that these idiots keep babbling about ? It's not like China or Russia are fighting with spears and bows, while we are the only ones in town with machine guns...

lakecity55's picture

I think the Russians have overtaken most of our tech while we blew money wasting the ME for the Zionistas. They swap and work with the Chinese, who will have similar stuffs.

They get Uranium from Hitlary's deals and they got missile tech from Slick Willie.

Appears the only loyalty the Clintoons have is to Green FRNs!

847328_3527's picture

The DoD is worred because we only have 7,856 nuclear war heads and China+Russia already have 132 togther.

 

They're catching up!

People get worried when the nuclear war head gap narrows just like when the thigh gap narrows.

It's a bad sign. Not as sexy.

lakecity55's picture

Russia and China have over 7000 warheads between them.

beemasters's picture

The only two nations that can truly defend their own interests are perceived as threats.

Déjà view's picture

DoO: Dept. of Offense perceived threat solved.

johngaltfla's picture

This estimate fits right in with my ongoing blovel about World War III should it happen this year. I just added another cheerful chapter for tonight's fun and relaxation:

November 12, 2016 WW3: Over There, Over There
Urban Roman's picture

All predicted years ago by Dmitry Orlov.

Here's his current essay: The Power of Nyet

johngaltfla's picture

Not so much. My ending, plus the November 16th story, will have more twists than a hooker on cocaine with Bob Hogan.

Son of Loki's picture

"...the US and its allies...."

 

Are the "allies" they mention the rapefugee-packed countries in Europe that can't get their act together? Turkey?

No wonder the Pentigram is worried. poor leadership at the top has led to this fiasco and I see no end to it unless a non-DC parasite like Trump is elected. he is a negotiator and businessman, not a career political parasite.

CuttingEdge's picture

Am I right in thinking the US currently relies on the Russians for launching shit into space (Obama NASA cuts - ho hum). Wouldn't it be natural to assume the Russians (having an active space program, and with a little help from the Chinese) have total control of everything orbiting the planet? Air superiority counts big, but space domination (ability to knock out GPS/Coms) is probably right up there in the modern tech world's requirements if you want to exercise hegemony.

Keyser's picture

Everyone inside the DC beltway is certifiably insane, high on their own power, struggling to keep it while expanding their sphere of influence... No exceptions... Their solution for stopping the ultimate demise of US hegemony and military power is to destroy the world... Just wait until Victoria Nuland is Sec of State... 

Aristotle of Greece's picture
Aristotle of Greece (not verified) Keyser Jul 31, 2016 9:35 AM

The truth about the conflict with Russia NO ONE dares to reveal. https://goo.gl/nKJndT

HowdyDoody's picture

The DoD relies on Russian rocket motors to get its super secret satellites into space.

Stuck on Zero's picture

I liked the part about: "States unable to cope with internal political fractures ..."

Is that referring to the U.S.?

OverTheHedge's picture

1. Violent Ideological Competition. Irreconcilable ideas communicated and promoted by identity networks through violence. 2. Threatened U.S. Territory and Sovereignty. Encroachment, erosion, or disregard of U.S. sovereignty and the freedom of its citizens from coercion. 3. Antagonistic Geopolitical Balancing. Increasingly ambitious adversaries maximizing their own influence while actively limiting U.S. influence. 4. Disrupted Global Commons. Denial or compulsion in spaces and places available to all but owned by none. 5. A Contest for Cyberspace. A struggle to define and credibly protect sovereignty in cyberspace. 6. Shattered and Reordered Regions. States unable to cope with internal political fractures, environmental stressors, or deliberate external interference.

Is it just me, or is that list a fair assessment of US foreign policy at the moment?

Pot, meet kettle? Karma?

Déjà view's picture

Brazil...America is turning into Brazil...problem solved.

August's picture

It is the natural order of things that the peoples of Europe and Asia be controlled from the banks of the PoToMac.

s/

The sooner someone lobs a 10 kiloton device into The District, the better off the remaining 5 billion of us will be. 

Just to be complete, they really should take out The City as well, though scores of innocents might die.

Croesus's picture

You sound surprised...

If propaganda gets any more retarded in this country, they'll start a new streetgang called "Putin" that can be blamed for everything. 

 

sinbad2's picture

China can be very misleading, they claim they have 1600 tons of Gold, but most Gold watchers put their reserves at 8 to 10 thousand tons.

China claims to have 260 nukes, but probably has 2,000.

The Russians claim to have 7,300 nukes, but could probably reactivate the 45,000 nukes they had in the 1980's.

 

If the Russians hurled all 45,000 nukes at the US(highly unlikely) it would mean a nuke for every 69 square miles.

Now doesn't that just make your day?

HopefulCynic's picture

What are you talking about? Russia ALONE has MORE warheads than the US and BRITAIN combined.

johngaltfla's picture

And more hackers in their cyber command than all NATO nations combined.

Bollockinell's picture

Would love to see sources for all these claims.

MFL8240's picture

Before you write something like this you should read up on Chinas superiority in nuclear capability.  You can have 10,000 more then them but 1 stike is all that matters .

sinbad2's picture

Russia and China have huge Uranium reserves, and the Russians have led the world in rocket science for decades.

Katos's picture

The real issue will be our military industrial complex companies are only interested in the contracts and keeping the flow of taxpayers dollars into their coffers.  At 1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS,  the F35 is a big fat lemon, and billions more will be thrown at it before someone wakes up and designs something  (BETTER)? We just had some 2 billion dollar new age ship float out to sea, unfortunately,  all it did was float. It had to be towed in with less than 40 hours on the ship. Russian and Chinese companies are building technology to destroy America's advantage, and from the look of Russia's ass kicking in Syria I don't think they're accepting anything less than perfection.  Since we haven't really won a war since WWIII, im really doubtful that our armed forces experience,  chasing tribes through caves in Afganistan,  is going to help them against a highly efficient and we'll trained and armed nuclear country. Just a thought.

WTFUD's picture

Some of those caves are pretty dark to be fair. s/c

edotabin's picture

Military and spending are secondary.  They can only be used to support and promote a system which is worthy of acceptance.  The zios have simply jumped the shark and people no longer wish to play. The game is over and no amount of missiles, bombs or planes will change that. Oppression is always temporary.The only thing that can change this trajectory is a return to sound principles, a fair and equitable foreign policy and an actual benefit for those that wish to participate.

I am not saying that Russia, China etc. will create a better world.  I am not even convinced that they are or will be in a position to create their own "international system". Perhaps they may not even wish to (I doubt that but it is a mathematical possibility).

The greatest deficit of the US is not monetary; it is the hemorrhaging of good will. I cannot think of any nation that could have done as much screwed up stuff as the US in the last 20-25 years and still have some supporters.

neutrino3's picture

Yes. There we are. But only for US-(mic U banks U msm U 1% U wallst U ...)

Bollockinell's picture

"I cannot think of any nation that could have done as much screwed up stuff as the US in the last 20-25 years and still have some supporters."
Whilst I wholeheartedly agree with you, don't forget that you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

Bollockinell's picture

"Since we haven't really won a war since WWIII"

I must have missed that one. ;)

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) lakecity55 Jul 30, 2016 11:03 PM

When I am on unfriendly sites I just call them (((Globalistas)))

works too.

ebworthen's picture

Exactly; now that we have sold out all our manufacturing to China we somehow complain about it?

We've been sold-out as a people, sold-out by the Military Industrial Complex and Bank/Corporation/Insurer hegemony.

There is no Amerca left other than the good people who go to work every day doing something positive and not shuffling Bankster/M.I.C. paper and foisting fantasies about America being "Great" like it once was!

Killdo's picture

as a foreigner I noticed years ago slavery has never left this country - it has just been extrapolated onto the whole population (hence being sold). 

Kind of what Romans did with Christianity (they looked at the religion of salves and thought why not spread this around so more poeple will believe they will live after they die  - under the condition they are really good slaves in this life of course)

Raging Debate's picture

Kildo - Yeah perhaps. The CB empire seemed to make a conscious decision to head East toward China, a new Constantinople if you will. After all, a reserve currency is only good for about 80 years nowadays. With that shift comes different alliances, more regionalized trade. It isn't all going to plan though. The debt in China, the EU and US will need to be restructured. Trade has to rebalance fully. These things are beginning to happen a decade too late. Corruption in all three places are at epic proportions. 

 If we are lucky and avoid WW3 still looking at another lost decade. 

washedup's picture

re:  now that we have sold out all our manufacturing to China we somehow complain about it?

 

actually the corporations are multinationals - blame the shysters and scholmoz on WALL ST.

noless's picture

 

 

People who grew up starving on rice will have super computers with a compendium of all human knowledge connected to everyone on earth, including artificial intelligences, for literally nothing and there's no way to stop them, the best part is they still won't be able to figure out why people are starving.

 

Time for kumbaya everybody.

HenryHall's picture

>> What is that "American technological superiority" that these idiots keep babbling about ?

Biological warfare.

junction's picture

It now turns out that the Carlyle Group, the giant hedge fund that owns Booz Allen Hamilton, also owns Getty Images, a company that is a copyright thief.  While the NWO controlled companies preach intellectual property rights, these same fascist companies see nothing wrong with stealing money from people by claiming copyrights they don't own. 

https://torrentfreak.com/photographer-files-1bn-copyright-claim-against-...

Booz Allen Hamilton, the wiretapping company that Edward Snowden worked for, is a company that steals every Americans' privacy by its snooping.  From Obama on down, the United States is run by criminals. 

shovelhead's picture

They ain't doing it for fun. They got a contract.

Just business.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

2035? Hell there won't be a "USA" by 2025.

DC will turn the NAFTA region into the NAU (North American Union).

Why do you think that Hillbama were ordered by Wall St to get rid of the borders?

de3de8's picture

Predictions for 2035 , yeah, ok

CPL's picture

2 years 2 months and 23 days is all they bought.  When the dust settles it'll be an estimated 60 million worldwide, when the nuclear plants start going off like a string of firecrackers the number drops to under 5 million.  It's going to be very busy on the river styx, the book of names is filling up pretty fast around that date.

doctor10's picture

A truly "large' organization-such as the Pentagon, should surely be able to conceive of a world outside of violent conflict.  and toward that end, how they might bend their resources to fulfill a cooperative world of trade and commerce-on terms other than the limits and restrictions of the 19th and 20th centuries.

Zip_the_Zap's picture

I do not understand what you are saying. It is not the purpose of the "Pentagon" to conceive of anything other than protecting American citizens. And what does "... the limits and restrictions of the 19th and 20th centuries." mean.

Jacksons Ghost's picture

Please, come on ZH'ers.  The real threat is economic, that so few of you pointed this out is disheartening.  The real danger of Russia and China is as leaders of de-dollarization.  The Reserve Currency known is the Petro Dollar is what our MIC , is defending abroad. 

 

The Real Threat is the ending of Dollar hegemony.  That is what we really are afraid of.  All the Anti-Russia and Anti-China BS revolves around this.

 

Come on ZH, you are better than this.  Cut thru the BS and get to the TRUTH!

Matteo S.'s picture

The dollar hegemony will anyway end, as the sterling pound ended. Because of excess of US foreign indebtment and because of the decrease of the US share in the world economy.

The later It happens, the harder the fall will be.