Trump Says It's Time To Sell Stocks, Warns Of "Very Scary Scenarios" For Investors

Tyler Durden's picture

It is hardly a secret that few things could help Trump's presidential campaign as much as a stock market crash.

As we reported back in January, while Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, Presidential candidates worry about how the stock market might affect their political outcomes. The reason for this is that historically, the market performance in the three months leading up to a Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House… the incumbent party or the challenger. Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.

There are only three exceptions to this correlation: 1956, 1968, and 1980. Statistically, the market has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election!

A simple explanation for this relationship is because the stock market reflects, at least in theory, the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election; in practice - now that central banks push up the market the worse the global economy gets - it is the opposite, but a rising stock market certainly does miracles to one's sense of financial net worth, and an unwillingness to deviate from the status quo. Clearly, a rising stock market indicates an "improving economy", something Obama has pointed out so many times in the past several years, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

Therefore, as we said in January, one's time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

* * *

Well, we are now almost exactly three months away from the November 8 election, and if Trump wants to really boost his chances, a market crash right now would be certainly most welcome by his campaign.

That may be why Trump on Tuesday urged his supporters holding 401-(k) to get out of equities as interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are inflating the stock market.

“I did invest and I got out, and it was actually very good timing,” the Republican presidential nominee said in a phone interview with Fox Business. “But I’ve never been a big investor in the stock market.” “Interest rates are artificially low,” Trump said. “The only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money.”

Trump also warned of "very scary scenarios" ahead for investors.

To be sure, Trump's previous commentary on a stock market bubble has not won him many fans at the Fed, and certainly not Janet Yellen, whom he said back in May, he would "most likely" replace. Amusingly, Yellen has repeatedly said the Fed intends to raise interest rates gradually, as volatility and sudden drops in jobs and GDP, have delayed such plans. As a result, many have also said that a Fed rate hike before the presidential election is out of the question.

In an amusing tangent, Bloomberg here notes that "Republican and Democratic administrations alike typically don’t comment on the Fed’s monetary policy, out of respect for the central bank’s independence." We can only assume that Bloomberg does not refer to the Fed's "independence" from Goldman Sachs, which numerous civil and criminal cases have shown is not the case, the same Goldman which just happens to be one of Hillary's biggest fans.

And an amusing paradox emerges when considering that none other than both Jeff Gundlach and, as of Sunday night, Goldman Sachs both urged investors to sell equities. One wonders if just like Trump was accused of being a Putin spy for diverging from the mainstream anti-Russia narrative, accusations will now emerge that he is also a Goldman double agent, seeking to crash the market just so Goldman can load up on the cheap.

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Aubiekong's picture

Vote Trump, at least you know he is telling you what he believes in...

Looney's picture

 

This just in!!!

A video of Hillary’s top-secret Yoga Routine is leaked!

Looney

[Spoiler Alert: she ain’t wearing no Pantsuit!]   ;-)

pods's picture

Looney, sorry but there is no way I am clicking that link.

Could be downward facing dog?  You know that once you see that, it cannot be unseen.

Or Hillary doing the Happy Baby?

pods

eurogold's picture

Eye cancer causing....

DownWithYogaPants's picture

This is a 1980 kind of year.

I don't expect this to be an indicator again until the market is no longer manipulated as badly as it is recently.  

zeronetwork's picture

I think I'm in love with trump.

thesonandheir's picture

Didn't his buddy Ican't already dump his holdings? Along with Soros, Drunkenmiller and Gundlach?

 

Makes you wonder who is propping this up hmmmm. 

CClarity's picture

There is no doubt it is the Fed and their member banks - the real ruling elite

Max Hunter's picture

Did anyone else notice the exceptions were all in the year of the Monkey?

Handful of Dust's picture
Dow Corning notifies state of 348 layoffs at two sites

 

http://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw/index.ssf/2016/08/dow_corning_files_wa...

 

More evidence of a robust recovery I guess.

pods's picture

Whew, at least it wasn't the Corning plant down by the beach. Been thinking about that place after the kids leave.

pods

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

The market is NOT going to tank, until and unless the Donald is elected.  If he gets elected, you can be darn sure the elitists will make the rest of us pay for electing him.  Otherwise, you can be sure there won't be a selloff that will ruin Obama's "legacy".  Janet will make sure of that.  You can sell all the stawks you want, Janet will be there with freshly printed $$'s to buy whatever you want to sell.

pods's picture

So why would "they" tank the market if The Donald is elected?

Wouldn't that risk their entire enterprise of debt money issued at interest?

We are on, and have been on, the edge of a black hole of a deflationary collapse for a while. Why would "they" risk that to prove a point to someone who really isn't that important?

Serious question.

pods

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

You might very well be correct.  There may never be another stawk market crash again, ever.  But if there ever is a time when it "might" happen, it would be after the Donald would get elected.  If he starts asking for an audit of the Fed, they will make the markets tank, just to say "see, even the mere talk of auditing us, is making the markets tank".  If Hillary is elected, you can count on NIRP and record S&P 500.  They won't let the first woman preside over a "depression", even though a depression will be upon us all, it just won't show up on stawk market indices.  Because, those indices aren't indicators of economic activity anymore than a thermometer is an indicator for wind speed.

FreezeThese's picture
FreezeThese (not verified) Beam Me Up Scotty Aug 2, 2016 2:28 PM

This is like the Gartman reverse indicator 10x ETF from heaven

F'n moron can't keep his mouth shut long enough ... women are just itching to back his campaign after today surely ... it's as though he can't comprehend that the jokes on him

pods's picture

You just said the same thing you said before.

Seriously, why would a cabal that has the world by the balls risk all they had to do in the last 8 years to prove a point to someone who has zero power?

We are at the time in the debt money cycles where it might go kaboom over anything. Nevermind it should have in 2001, and again even worse in 2008-9.  Now two great debt purges have been put off. There is no way in hell anyone is going to risk the whole thing coming apart to prove anything to any peon, errr, president.

It just is not going to happen. They might take them into a room and explain how things work, but there is not going to be any sort of "see what we can do?" displays. They have enough power where they don't have to do that.  I know that much, and if I do, then someone in both the Hildabeast's camp and the Trumpster camp knows this.  You don't fuck with the money powers. (and no, JFK didn't fuck with the money powers, he got his head blown off for different reasons)

pods

sarz's picture

On June 4 1963 Kennedy signed Executive Order 11110, authorizing the Treasury to bypass the Fed in issuing money. Six months later he was dead and the state-issued money was withdrawn and replaced with the usual debt-based stuff. 

Trump has spoken of paying off the debt in eight years. That's the only way he might do it.

Hillary had Qadhafi buggered to death with a bayonet. She admits in the emails it had to do with the gold dinar he was promoting. 

Moustache Rides's picture

I think tanking the market is on the agenda regardless of who gets elected.  It's part of the strategy of dismantling the U.S.  Unless for some reason they're not ready for that part of the plan, like they might want to foment more societal division, chaos, and fear.  Otherwise lookout below.

adanata's picture

Mustache Rides... I tend to agree. TPTB have been steadily picking up the pace for catastrophe. Trump aside, or maybe not considering what he's saying out loud is a problem, the entire reason the global central banks have been able to take control of virtually all humanity is secrecy. From the time the Roths were still named Bauer, they have always hidden in the shadows but this is ending rather quickly and they know it. The sheeple are getting the big picture; an awful lot of them are starting to catch on. Z.Brzezinski warned the CFR years ago "there is a universal political awakening" underway and time is short. Moreover, if the "peon" in the Oval isn't a puppet, he can do tremendous damage to those disastrous trade agreements which are the very foundation of the Roths/Rocks ambitions for global empire. Deutsche Bank is heavily exposed to hundreds of trillions in fraudulent CDs. They're going down and taking everyone else with them. All the plugs have already been pulled. The bond market is sitting on the razor's edge.  If Trump wins, they can pull the market and use the propaganda media to blame the collapse on the Fed; which they don't need anymore and has become completely disposable [and the minions have been aiming the People's wrath at the Fed instead of the global central banking system]and political corruption hailing Trump as fresh air. In this way they distract the public from looking at THEM. Trump doesn't even have to play along; just keep doing what he's doing. TPTB can talk to him after the fact. What they need is a scapegoat to blame for the inevitable... and they have it. I have become certain the 'bad' news that continues to erupt about Hildabeast must be sanctioned by the Barons; I think they're setting her up; but that's global. Locally, the U.S. ruling elite is fighting like mad to stay in power without realizing HRC is already off the table. I think the greatest fear for TPTB is exposure.

 

As Henry Ford said, "It's a good thing the people don't understand the banking system or I believe there would be a revolution tomorrow.... "

 

Crystal ball...  over and out.

 

JoeSoMD's picture

Adanata,  ... bad news setting her up????  What bad news???  I don't see it fellow poster... the MSM is just full of anti-Trump and nothing anti on Clinton... It is absurd how lopsided coverage is.  If your contention is correct there would be something, nay anything, dribbling out about her but all I see and hear is "crickets".  And with how sloppy Trump has gotten, I don't think he is serious about his campaign.  The white house has been made her destiny by the cabal I'm sorry to think.

adanata's picture

 

The MSM can say whatever it likes... the People have mostly stopped listening. The corporate media is a laughing stock. There is a core of Billerybots just as there is core of Obots [because you can fool some of the people all of the time] but that does not represent the majority. In my travels, from low to high, from poor to rich [with the exception of the FSA], the people are not buying the narrative. They're not talking about it or putting Trump stickers on their car but they are determined nevertheless. HRC? That dog won't hunt.

Steeley's picture

Serious answer - they short the market and pull the trigger (the Fed is the ultimate insider..). I figure an interest rate of 2.5% should do it.

Since Trump's gonna dump 'em anyway, take the money honey, and run like hell.

 

viahj's picture

the same reason that China, after decades of using their UST holdings for advantage in trade and secrets, now has the gold and are becoming beligerent to the Anglo-Empire (S China Sea).  the BIS/IMF Globalists KNOW that the current system is on borrowed time, they are positoning themselves for the global reset that is coming.  at some point, you cut your losses and embark on the new gig.

The Real Tony's picture

The market will tank no matter who wins the election. The under/over is 70 percent the way I see it and ten years is the under/over for the market to move sideways after falling approximately 70 percent.

nagan's picture

Real Tony, You know nothing abt how the markets work.. and u dont even live in usa.. Stop with your rants. your just an idiot and racist..

 

LooseLee's picture

People that think like you are what's wrong with this country! Deprogram your BRAINWASHING! Grow some courage and short this PIG (Lie, farce, fraud, etc.) of a financial system...

weburke's picture

selected stocks will slingshot up. cvs is one. 

Calmyourself's picture

CVS, interesting a Democrat company through and through..  Ass kissing Washington n is their specialty their management is not exactly top of the line..

greenskeeper carl's picture

No shit? I'd better consult my astrologer. I'd ask Ms Cleo how important that is but apparently she just died...

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Handful of Dust Aug 2, 2016 1:25 PM

Kahn is selling green cards to Arabs just like Willie Brown is selling green cards to rich Chinese in San Francisco.

Instead of a foundation Brown runs a consulting company, pay to play. He still controls city hall 10 yrs after being termed out.

They say he invented this, but I say he followed the Clinton template.

If Trump is elected both these scumbags will be out of business.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Handful of Dust Aug 2, 2016 1:28 PM

There is a guy who has predicted all Pres winners since the 80s correctly said it comes down to the Presidents record and how it is viewed which party wins.

70% think he has failed if they think the country is going in the wrong direction.

Shaznardickleze the Doon's picture

Did she die of unforeseen ass cancer?

JamesBond's picture

You have to bank your profit or there is no profit.  If the goal is to 'buy low and sell high', then now is not a bad time to divest from the stock market...  take your money and enjoy before hyperinflation destroys it.  

The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) Max Hunter Aug 2, 2016 1:29 PM

The year of the Monkey?

But, we've only had one black President.

laser's picture

Actually, Eisenhower had a black grandparent or great grandparent. I can't remember which.

RockySpears's picture

   and 2016 is .... yep Year of the Monkey

 

RS

SilverRhino's picture

Damn dude, you're correct.   And 2016 is in there too.  Hmmm. 

BullyBearish's picture

Senile serial liars like Warren Buffetbaboon...

JRobby's picture

Algo's hanging on Trump's every word.................

HopefulCynical's picture

(It's a robot. No eye-bleach or brain brillo needed.)

GadExp's picture

What's wrong with you!?! Are you suicidal?!

Countrybunkererd's picture

Must be!  either that or they have some GOOD MEDS!! / live in Colorado.

I never took acid, but i have heard a bad trip can damage you for life.  I'd imagine acid and viewing that would send every single one to the rubber room immediately and permanently.

skinwalker's picture

Acid only ruins your life if you do it wrong.

 

Although, I once ate a couple of strips and watched I, Pet Goat 2 over and over, which was psychologically disturbing.

Steeley's picture

At present, Acid is redundant..

CJgipper's picture

Only in the mornings.

max2205's picture

Janet was told to hold up the markets when joe and barry paid her a 'visit' before brexit

Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Exactly. And the BLS has been covering real numbers to protect HNIC.

Once he's gone, the market will tank and it will not be "his fault"!!!

He'll say, "I left you with 5% unemployment and a strong market"

Fuck him