Don't Show Jack Welch This Chart...

Tyler Durden's picture

In a miraculous case of deja vu all over again, after cratering for the first 5 months of the year (confirming an 'opposition' narrative of the economic weakness underlying a record high stock market), the jobs market has suddenly surged... now where have we seen this before?

 

 

Of course, anyone who would claim this data to be rigged - like Jack Welch in 2012 - is nothing but a tinfoil-hat-wearing conspiracy theorist...

Just bear in mind that we discovered months after 2012's miracle at The Bureau of Lies and Subterfuge, that in fact the data had been manipulated...

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.

 

The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.

 

And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

 

Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.

 

And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.

 

“He’s not the only one,” said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.

 

The Census employee caught faking the results is Julius Buckmon, according to confidential Census documents obtained by The Post. Buckmon told me in an interview this past weekend that he was told to make up information by higher-ups at Census.

 

Ironically, it was Labor’s demanding standards that left the door open to manipulation.

 

Labor requires Census to achieve a 90 percent success rate on its interviews — meaning it needed to reach 9 out of 10 households targeted and report back on their jobs status.

 

Census currently has six regions from which surveys are conducted. The New York and Philadelphia regions, I’m told, had been coming up short of the 90 percent.

 

Philadelphia filled the gap with fake interviews.

 

“It was a phone conversation — I forget the exact words — but it was, ‘Go ahead and fabricate it’ to make it what it was,” Buckmon told me.

 

Census, under contract from the Labor Department, conducts the household survey used to tabulate the unemployment rate.

 

Interviews with some 60,000 household go into each month’s jobless number, which currently stands at 7.3 percent. Since this is considered a scientific poll, each one of the households interviewed represents 5,000 homes in the US.

 

Buckmon, it turns out, was a very ambitious employee. He conducted three times as many household interviews as his peers, my source said.

 

By making up survey results — and, essentially, creating people out of thin air and giving them jobs — Buckmon’s actions could have lowered the jobless rate.

 

Buckmon said he filled out surveys for people he couldn’t reach by phone or who didn’t answer their doors.

 

But, Buckmon says, he was never told how to answer the questions about whether these nonexistent people were employed or not, looking for work, or have given up.

 

But people who know how the survey works say that simply by creating people and filling out surveys in their name would boost the number of folks reported as employed.

We wonder how long it will be before Rick Santelli notices... like he did last time.

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corporatewhore's picture

of course it's bullshit just like it was in 2012.

TradingIsLifeBrah's picture
TradingIsLifeBrah (not verified) corporatewhore Aug 5, 2016 8:17 AM

I do wonder when government figures were real.  Like when was the time that the government was like, "wow these numbers are really fucked up, let's just release them as is and take the consequences"

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

While there has always been statistical manipulation for political/economic reasons, we have recently entered the Twilight Zone.

I remember how 'we' used to laugh at how nonsensical the Soviet Union was with their various 'official' statistics.

"We the People" are so far beyond that it makes my head spin.

mtl4's picture

It's just funny to watch Santelli go ballistic about anything, jobs numbers or otherwise.

TradingIsLifeBrah's picture
TradingIsLifeBrah (not verified) Aug 5, 2016 8:15 AM

Who are "these Chicago guys"?  Racist much?...

11b40's picture

Just do a little research on Chicago machine style politics.  It has nothing to do with race, and everything to do with corruption, greed, power, and control over the municipal budget & the largess to be doled out.  Do you know even who controls it now, or did you leave off the s/Tag?

New_Meat's picture

equal opportunity greed, power, control, and "disbursements" not respecting race, religion, or ethnic self-identification.

Bytor325's picture

Bill Daley was the king of the Black Power Movement?

 

Dipshit

Firepower's picture

if BiGov lies on FBI investigations and IRS persecutions it lies on EVERYTHING

bh2's picture

Chicago isn't a "race". At least not yet.

Arnold's picture

I'm confused.

Did GE just hire 100,000 people last month?

TradingIsLifeBrah's picture
TradingIsLifeBrah (not verified) Arnold Aug 5, 2016 8:18 AM

Hire, Fire.  What difference does one letter really make...

headfake's picture

The non believers from 2012 are starting to wake up in 2016.

11b40's picture

I guess we can hope, anyway.

Shizzmoney's picture

The BLS has been political since Reagan.  Wall St and the Fed needs to give appearances that shit is moving along, and that the people in power know what they are doing.

This society's facsination on numbers is going to crush it under the weight of actual mathematics that people live.

bh2's picture

"The BLS has been political since Reagan."

"The BLS has been political since LBJ."

There. Fixed it for you.

Bay Area Guy's picture

Shadowstats numbers on employment are quite interesting to look at.  They track U3, U6 and their own methodology.  U3 and U6 historically tracked the Shadowstats number, albeit at lower rates of unemployment.  Then, in 2009, the numbers diverged.  U# and U6 continued to track each other, but the Shadowstats number stayed very high.  It was almost as if, as if some magical change happened in 2009.

When all else fails, lie.

kenny500c's picture

In 2012 it was lower standards to get a car loan that juiced the economy, I imagine we are now getting more of the same across the board to move the numbers. Of course all of these loans have to be paid back but that will be after the election. I personally am getting many 0% credit card "convenience" checks in the mail.

youngman's picture

To me there are a lot of mixed signals out there....construction is down...gasoline use is down....but more people are working....how does that figure out...I cant believe the health care is hiring because ACA is failing...they are cutting costs ....all these mergers are not adding jobs....just wierd..but I do think its poitical

Things that go bump's picture

Most young people are working in low-paid, part-time service jobs. They can scrape by if they live at home or work at least 2 jobs and share housing. At this rate, they're never going to be able to afford to start families or become home owners. We'll end up like Japan, with young people dressing up like Hello Kitty and doing all kinds of weird shit in their time off to make up for their inability to become fully functioning adults, stuck in an extended adolescense forever.

Spectre's picture

I'm sick of these lying bastards.

Bernardo Gui's picture

The entire unionized federal bureaucracy is part of the Democratic Party.  The IRS targets conservatives in 2012.  The Justice Department has been transformed into one big gaggle of community organizers.  The Census Bureau pumps up the survey in the final strecth of the election.  Generals and admirals line up to find ways to accommodate transgender soldiers and sailors.  The FBI decides Clinton is guilty but won't recommend prosecution. Etc.  Old news.

corporatewhore's picture

I have been informed by someone who is dating someone working for a Midwest State that even though that government employee wants to vote for Trump--he or she cannot do so unless he or she wants to lose his/her job.  Mob tactics bullshit.  

Bytor325's picture

And how would said govt know for whom said govt employee voted for?

blue51's picture

In an election about 10 yrs ago , for a Business Rep , in the Union I am in ,
the ballots where numbered , so the union knew who you voted for . We complained to the International , and had another election with a " Monitor " F-in joke .

Squid Viscous's picture

is he the old senile fuck who turned GE into a financial services company that almost went tits up in 2008?

Bytor325's picture

Next Fed Meeting Yellen will announce they have finally hit their goal of NURP (Negative Unemployment Rate Policy)

 

Unemployment will be -2.5% just in time for election day.  When pressed for details, the govt will explain that they are changing the methodology.  Rather than counting the number of unemployed Americans, they realize that since 52% of the population is working 2 or more jobs there are actually more jobs than unemployed americans, so the rate is actually negative.

 

 

 

 

the grateful unemployed's picture

and their 2% negative deflation target

The Real Tony's picture

They need a hangman's noose for all the bankers and the FED and all their total bullshit as America gets nearer and nearer the election... of course magically America will be in recession/depression by January 2017 when Obama leaves office. Expect the total lies to grow bigger and larger as America gets nearer November. Heck we migh0 even see jobs numbers 500,000 plus in the next month or two. Yet everyone you talk to has lost their job or knows several of their friends that has also lost their job.

The Real Tony's picture

We're really seeing the spillover effect of the great recovery in America up here in Canada. Canada lost 31,000 jobs during the month of July including 71,000 full-time jobs. Note the figures from Fort McMurray and the wildfires were EXCLUDED for the month of July. Funny how during the 1950's, 1960's and 1970's when America was doing great Canada was also doing great.

Hohum's picture

And the not seasonally adjusted number deviates little from month to month.