Stocks Soar To Record Highs Thanks To Biggest Seasonal Jobs Adjustment In A Decade

Tyler Durden's picture

Jobs beat yuuge, "proving" everying is awesome...


Thanks to the biggest positive TTM seasonal adjustment in over a decade...


But don't let that spoil the party... It's payrolls buying day...


Post-payrolls, Gold was the biggest loser followed by bonds as stocks surged happily...


Today's surge pushed all major indices into the green for the week...


NASDAQ RECORD HIGH CLOSE (Nasdaq July 2015 highs 5218.86)


FANG stocks surged over 9% in the last 6 days


Mega short-squeeze at the open lifted the indices but after that buying ended...


S&P breaks out to new record highs...


VIX plunged to its lowest levels since July 2014 (barely holding above a 10 handle)...


Bristol-Myers' crashed by the most in 16 years...


Banks were bid because rates rose BUT the curve actually flattened and rate-hike odds barely budged...


Treasury yields exploded higher today (with the curve steeper by 4-6bps on the week, despite a small flattening today)...


Just as we warned, today's big pain was in the 2Y which exploded 8bps higher (its biggest absolute rise since Dec 2015 (which marked the cycle high)


The USD Index spiked today on the payrolls print (up 4 of the 5 days this week) - this is the 6th weekly rise of the last 7 weeks...Cable was the weakest of the majors on the week


USD strength sent commodities lower overall with silver worst on the day. Crude scrambled back to unch on the week as NYMEX closed...


It's been another crazy week in oil markets...


Gold and Silver were clubbed like baby seals today...


Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: S&P 500 Fwd EPS hits 189.5x - 15 year highs... probably nothing...

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billhilly's picture

That's it !  I am capitulating, I am done, I am finished with holding on to a picture of reality that will seemingly never be allowed to happen.  I have been bearish for 6+ years now (coincidentally coinciding with my embrace of ZH) and I have been beaten into submission by TPTB.  I can no longer stand the losses, financial and emotional, that come along with a view which will not conform to the reality which exists, agree with it or not. 

I am not bashing ZH here.  I am a long time fan and reader.  I agree in heart/mind with much of what is posted by the Tyler's, yet their views do not/have not borne sweet fruit, in fact it has been a sour, gut-retching meal that has left me emaciated and weak.  Following their take on the economic conditions "as they are/should be" has led nowhere but to the depths of confusion and exhaustion.  I wish to be neither confused nor exhausted any longer.

So fare-thee-well all you "red-pill" poppers, I am ready to explore the promised land of bliss and prosperity that is offered so generously by our magnificent political/financial benefactors.  I am ready to bow to the highly educated and intelligent members of our leadership.  I will listen attentively to their bullish message on all their colorful and glossy media channels.  I will praise the 1%-ers and stand aside as they pass by, genuflecting in their presence.  I will build a golden idol of the mighty "printing press" and worship it daily with reverence.

I will no longer doubt.  I will no longer distrust.  I throw away my tin foil hat.  My leaders have proven themselves worthy in mine eyes.  They would not deceive nor mislead me...they love me, as they do all of us.

Ahh, what a glorious future I now have to look forward to.  Unlimited "growth", vibrant economic recovery(s), abundant job creation, government largess where "debt does not matter", and the power and farsightedness of an honest, caring, and all-embracing political/military/corporate complex.

What took me so long to find this glorious path ?  Why did I fight the system ?  Why did I not pay heed to all the wisdom offered by "Million Dollar Bonus" ?  I will finally listen to my handlers and know the True reality which can exist with the proper mindset.  I will now be set free....

Hand me the Blue Pill please !

CPR Steps_30 pumps_2 breaths_then repeat's picture

NEVER, NEVER fight the trend! The trend can be your best friend, or your worst enemy.... make your choice ;)

FreeMoney's picture

I think I'm going to go buy some more precious metals on my credit card, particularly lead and brass.

Condition 1SQ's picture

What a blunt tool for determining economic health - number of jobs created?  It doesn't even factor in the hours worked, pay, etc.  Stupid.

847328_3527's picture

Wait, all the news is good right?


Investors could see U.S. profit slide continue into third quarter


The U.S. profit recession may go on, dashing hopes of investors and business people who had been banking on a turnaround in the third quarter for companies that had been watching their profits shrink for the last year.


Analysts have been cutting forecasts for third-quarter S&P 500 companies so much in recent weeks that the period now is on track for a year-over-year decline rather than a slight gain, Thomson Reuters data shows.


My guess is Wall Street knows no rate hike is coming so it's ZIRP forever and Fatted babnker bonuses since they see their puppet Hillary "Bailout Queen" Clinton as a winner.


Poundsand's picture

On a long enough timeline, the seasonal adjuster will reach full employment.

JohnG's picture

We'll be at 150% full employment or -50% unemployment by next year.

And we'll have 75 million on food stamps, recorder-er high disablity and $5,000 grocery trips a few years later.

Suckess, marxist-statist style.



(and rainbows, skittles and unicorns for all)

Mr. Universe's picture

Cypher: You know, I know this steak doesn't exist. I know that when I put it in my mouth, the Matrix is telling my brain that it is juicy and delicious. After nine years, you know what I realize?
[Takes a bite of steak]
 Ignorance is bliss.

SeattleBruce's picture

Gawly!  The war on poverty did work!

scintillator9's picture

One should reflect on this article from 2012, especially the chart:

Then, refer to the BLS site, and its chart below:

Notice any similarities?

CPR Steps_30 pumps_2 breaths_then repeat's picture

The trend was down, hence shorting made sense.... HOWEVER, technicals turned consitently bullish by 30 June, hence it only made sense to go long (again). 

847328_3527's picture

I haven't looked at the Dow compsite yet but my guess is none of the energy stawks are on it.

TradingTroll's picture

Sounds similar to don't fight city hall and don't fight the status quo.

The Merovingian's picture

It's your decision, but I am pretty sure Clint called you a pussie yesterday then if this is really your new position.

giovanni_f's picture

he was being sarcastic so as not to entirely freak out in the light of the fact that an absurd system can succesfully be kept on life support for an absurdly long timespan with such surreal operations as today's job report's seasonal fiction.

At some point it WILL BE game over and the world as we know it now will appear to us a world from yesterday.

in4mayshun's picture

Exactly. And because they have gone to such extremes to support the markets, they will fall fast and hard when the dam finally cracks. This feels like the summer of 08' again-new weekly highs in the stock market when the real economy feels like it's goin off the rails. Tptb are holding it together to get the whore elected to the WH then lord help us.

N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) billhilly Aug 5, 2016 3:18 PM

Sorry buddy,  the Blue Pill is like Buddhist enlightenment.  If you want it you can't achieve it.

You're NOT ready for the Blue Pill until you purge yourself of ALL your Economic Morality OCD.

Until then, you're on the Doomer Flying Dutchman,  FOREVER!!!!!!

Cue:  Hotel California song 


Bravo mate. Well written. Pillow fight club it is then.

BullyBearish's picture

Sorry, once you take the RED PILL there's NO GOING BACK...

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

I am living this saying and I hate you for it.  But not really, I appreciate your posts.

Automatic Choke's picture

what you need are a couple of good scotches, and a fistful of VIX calls (out of the money) with expiry after the election....then find a medium size bucket of sand to hide your head in for awhile. 

get outside, fresh air, sunshine, birds tweeting instead of cellphones. 

just think how much you'll hate yourself when it all caves in right after you turn around and go long S&P500......


(in any case..... don't go away, let us know how it all works out on the dark side...)



Row Well Number 41's picture

Capitulation of the shorts is one of the signs of a top as I remember.

FoodStampPrez's picture

This was from a ZH'er in January of 2013.


"Hope you didn't put much money on that bet, Dawg. These fuckers are going to print hard enough to wake the dead. They'll print like mo'fos, print like mad men, print like fly pimps. Print until their eyes bleed. They will print via the swaps, via bank bailouts and mergers, via fixed Treasury yields, via real honest-to-God negative interest rates, via loans to banks on no collateral, via payroll tax reductions, and in the end via actual fiat paper instruments which they might very well drop in bails from actual mutherfucking helicopters. They will not give two figs what anyone thinks. Here is why. Because this is the Goddamned end of it my friend. There is no accounting beyond this point. There will be no history of it. No one to take notes of rates of exchange, or of the graft and violence, nobody to worry about the deficit or the GDP or the national debt of any nation large or small under the blazing Goddamned sun. End. Of. It. Does anyone bitch about how Rome totally debased their coinage at the end? Hell no. But whoever did it had enough to hand and grabbed some land with a nice vineyard and sat back and waited for the Middle Ages to start 700 years further on. And that's what a singularity is about. Anything that passes through is stripped of all meaning. Nothing we think is important now will remain so beyond the event horizon. Nobody will remember, nobody will write about it, nobody will be held to any standard. Ever for evar. So yeah, they'll print like the mad crazed terrorists they are. Because they have nothing to lose, and maybe something to gain. Maybe a dollar. Maybe a day. Maybe a slim chance to escape with some of the loot. Whatever the fuck advantage they see in it, for themselves and their elite crap wanking buddies, they will full-on-full-time-fucking do it to advantage. Watch for it, Dawg. It's totally on this time, on like Donkey Kong. And when the dust is settled in a generation hence it's going to have become another unbelievable episode among the ages of men."

N0TaREALmerican's picture
N0TaREALmerican (not verified) FoodStampPrez Aug 5, 2016 4:25 PM

Good post !   Whoever it was, the guy is/was right.

(Appears to have been couger_w.   It's been copied on a few other sites and quoted as such.)

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Yes, but who was it?  Robert Paulson?

Poundsand's picture

As I have said before, the "Hard Money" guy I learned from said it best in 2003.  "This will end badly.  I thought it would have already broken apart as the hand writing was on the wall in '73.  But never underestimate them, never underestimate what they will do or the creative ways they will concoct to keep this going.  I have, and I lost.  I don't anymore, I hedge for it, but play as if I don't know what's coming. Then hedge some more."

Bryan's picture

They were right.  This is what the end of the Keynesian Road looks like when it's pressed to its inevitable conclusion.  It's what it's like when the first car of the roller coaster goes over the top of the hill and you now see the track at the bottom is broken.  It's what it's like when the lead plane in the Blue Angels 6-pack plows into the ground and the rest of them all plow into it with him. It's like clicking "Send" on the rant you just wrote about your boss when you meant to click "Delete".  It's like driving through water over a road.  It's like being #6 in a progressive Russian Roulette game with a revolver, and it's your turn.  It's like trying to pick up the last nickel in front of the steam roller.  It's like the Darwin Awards Hall of Fame, only with a whole country.

Implied Violins's picture

I think Alannis Morissette sang a song with lyrics like those...

Mr. Schmilkies's picture

Bill, just note the little wizened white-haired lady behind the curtain.  That's all you gotta know.  Nice rant by the way. 

debtor of last resort's picture

The blue pill is fully covered by Obamacare.

There's one little thingy, red pills go through your mouth.

Mr. Big's picture

Once you have taken the red pill the blue is nullified.

DownWithYogaPants's picture

You know about the time you capitulate is when the last round of greatest fools is exhausted.

vq1's picture

yea i feel you... Im a greenhorn on ZH. I have a 401k that sits there and does nothing (in the past 3 years) except break even after fees. My phys gold and bitcoin are doing great (except I lost the gold at sea and I lost my bitcoin wallet passphrase). I dable with some bearish stuff, direxion, proshares, volitility, etc. But Im just getting killed. Luckily its just a small amount of money. But to give you perspective, my gf invested a similair amount of money in twitter, etc. And she is just killing me. It doesnt matter if I know all the fundamentals, the fact is buying the dip just works. If you buy the right stocks (my diverse wishlist is somehow always red even when the market is green).


Best of luck. See you back here when anything bad happens geopolitically... which of course means new, all time highs. 

junction's picture

You mean the "Blue 88" pill, don't you, the one medics gave shell shocked American soldiers during World War II on the European front.  The pills contained sodium penthothol, later used as "truth serum."  The soldiers took the Blue 88s and then returned to rifle companies for further combat duty.  Of course, they were still total wrecks, zombies in uniform, but that did not matter to generals like Omar Bradley.  The generals needed cannon fodder.

starman's picture

Looks like the "pokiman millenial's " got the orders from mommy and daddy to get a fng job or else!

gmrpeabody's picture

It'll look better in the morning...

Vlad the Inhaler's picture

^^^^ bear capitulation and piling into the rally is EXACTLY what they are waiting for to start crushing the longs with a pullback LOL.

TradingTroll's picture

Fight club must be on vacation.  I  had to wade through far too many posts to find your gem of truth.

Yes, a nice garden variety  correction is coming.


duxsailor's picture

Hi Billhilly

I had to check in just to upvote you - what an excellent statement (appears some people don't understand it without /sarc)

All the Best


Keltner Channel Surf's picture

“Algo-Lung”          from   "Aqualung"           by Jethro Tull

Sitting on the chart trend, eyeing retail orders with bad intent
His bots are running through the close, sleazy profits, grabbing all the lows
Hey Algo-lung

Spiking just before 1:00, watching as the squirrelly shorts all run
Hey Algo-lung
Wheeling up the dumptruck, head-spinning decrease as new longs yell “F^ck!”
Whoa, Algo-lung

Volume going cold, an algo meandering slowly, buying time the only way he knows
Longs hurting bad, as he ends the post-lunch downtrend
and starts to jog back up after their defeat
Never alone, three algos up the road,
one transitions to ramp mode as a couple tease

Algo-Lung my friend, don't you stalk VWAP too early
You poor old sod, you see it's only 3:00

Do you still remember December's little tease,
when the highest swings all end in fear then scream back with a “V” ?
Then you stoked the rally’s last breaths with a tight range that astounds,
as the buyers churned like madness through the Spring . . .

Dee-dee-dee-dee  Dee-dee-dee-dee-dee-dee-dee  . . .

Algo-lung my friend, don't you start the ramp too early
You poor old sod, you see, it's only 3:00

Automatic Choke's picture

"you poor old sod, you see it's only 3:00"

Brilliant again, my friend !!!!

Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Thanks.  Lotta algo-lung activity apparent on short-term charts, all to keep us in the horizontal pattern Kaiser so enjoys.  I didn't mind, as it allowed me to close out of my position by noon, knowing I probably wouldn't miss much (not enough volume for RUT to smash definitively beyond the Daily Keltner top).  

With the Nasdaq (both COMP & QQQ) the only index situated above the Daily Keltner, we'll all likely have to keep these on our screens, regardless of whether we trade them or not, as key indicators of potential strength, just as one needed to keep an eye daily on AAPL 2012-13, the 10-year 2014-15, and oil ever since (though perhaps we're just seeing COMP take over in this regard, too early to tell).

brada1013567's picture

What would Friday be without a Bernanke Greenspan Ramp and Camp.

Squid Viscous's picture

Eastbound and down ... to the Hampsteins!

Paul John Smith's picture

I'm done - in the sense that I'm now a few weeks from going further off the grid ...