US Tax Receipts Have Never Done This Without A Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

US Federal Tax Receipts are rising at just 1.2% year-over-year (12-mo rolling), slowing drastically from its 13.4% YoY growth in June 2013. While "it's probably nothing," we thought readers may be interested to note that the last six times tax receipt growth was at this weak a level, the American economy was in recession...



So ignore US Tax receipts (hard data), ignore US productivity (hard data), ignore the bond market (hard data), and ignore GDP expectations... but pay attention to the non-farm payrolls headline data - because that's what you're told to do!!

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Syrin's picture

When were we out of a recession?   When we were in the depression?

ultraticum's picture

Anybody running on a platform to take that chart to -10% (minus ten percent growth) each year for at least two terms?  Oh, wait, that would mean a massive increase in prosperity of the middle classes and freedom . . . never mind.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Say the word Janet, say it ... go ahead, I know you can, yes, Janet, oooh quietly now.... yessssss ... RECESSION, BITCHEZ!

Bush Baby's picture

ha - Just like the words Islamic Radical Terrorist can never be spoken, so too will the word "Recession" be forbidden

undertow1141's picture

Shoved way down deep in a memory hole. The Ministry of Truth forecasts clear economic sailing once we win the war with East Asia. In other good news the daily chocolate ration has been increased from 4 grams a day to 3. Big Brother loves you.

venturen's picture

ever get the feeling someone is lying to you?

Winston Churchill's picture

All the time.I've always expected the worst of people,and hey rarely let me down.

GUS100CORRINA's picture



The perverted despot with the reprobate mind in the WH can't fight gravity and win. His goose is cooked and his legacy will go up in flames no matter what he does with the stock market.

tarsubil's picture

No. Now get back in line you debt serf wage slave because this non-recession is almost half over and it hasn't even not arrived yet.

wisehiney's picture

Who you gonna believe, me or your lying wallet?

Sweet Cheeks's picture

Falling tax receipts. Nothing to see here. Move on along.

What I want to know is why Bix Weir says the market will crash between now and October.

Consuelo's picture



I'll offer you (1) possible answer:


 Because chaps like Mr. Weir - if they haven't figured anything else out, have perfected the art of playing on the memory retention of the average doom & gloomer - which is about that of your average house fly...   All of which means, as our dear friends at King World prove out on a daily basis, it is nearly a guarantee that you can keep these people on the edge of their seats - in perpetuity...!! 

Sweet Cheeks's picture

Re: Crashing economy
Perhaps you are right, but there are a lot of other gloom and doom investors predicting a crash as well.

Billionaire Carl Icahn, for example, recently raised a red flag on a national broadcast when he declared, “The public is walking into a trap again as they did in 2007.”

And the prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.” David Stockman, Michael Maloney, and Bill Gross say the same thing.

Smithers backs up his prediction using a ratio which proves that the only time in history stocks were this risky was 1929 and 1999. And we all know what happened next. Stocks fell by 89% and 50%, respectively.

Even the Royal Bank of Scotland says the markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the 2008 crisis. They told their clients to “Sell Everything” because “in a crowded hall, the exit doors are small.

But there is one distinct warning that should send chills down your spine … that of James Dale Davidson. Davidson is the famed economist who correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007.

Sweet Cheeks's picture

Sell MOAR of those gold ROX. PRICES getting too high to stack.

Devils Advocate's picture

DO you think we can roll right through the recession and slow down and actually start a recovery without the market actually correcting?  I think it may happen!

Devils Advocate's picture

DO you think we can roll right through the recession and slow down and actually start a recovery without the market actually correcting?  I think it may happen!

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Who gives a crap about falling tax receipts when you have the world's most prolific printing press and can issue MOAR DEBT.

The Real Tony's picture

Falling corporate profits, falling interest rates (seniors now have no interest income to report on their tax form), falling birthrate, falling productivity, the stock market soon to crash 70 to 90 percent shortly after the November election and the GDP all this year is probably negative yet the public is told otherwise.

LawsofPhysics's picture

The Stock market is now 100% a political tool and there for insiders benefit and public perception, period.

The "market" will remain high now. What will happen in reality will be in fact global Weimar.

The Real Tony's picture

At some point in time it will become easier for the FED and bankers to sell short as the short interest outside of them will overwhelm them just like it did with both gold and silver with the long positions.

LawsofPhysics's picture

It will not matter as you are still talking about paper/digital positions.  They can create as much paper/digits as they want and quell any market move, period.

The underlying currencies will start to fail as the real producers of the world simply stop producing because of collapsing margins, taxes, regulation etc.  We have been here before and that which cannot be sustained, won't be, period.  ALL stimulus is indeed fungibile and eventually all those paper/digital claims will begin seeking out real assets...

LawsofPhysics's picture

Stop "peddling fiction" my liberal friend just told me tax receipts have never been higher!!!!

Oh well print more...

What could wrong?


BeanusCountus's picture

If I read chart right, there is no "growth" in current federal tax receipts for the last 12 months. That could still leave em at all time highs (this should be easily checked). Thinking this pretty much reflects the low gdp growth numbers we have seen. And of course when tax receipts hit contraction territory it should signal negative gdp (definition of recession) absent big changes in fiscal policy (i.e. tax cuts). This is one of those data points worth paying attention to.

aliki's picture

tax reciepts are irrelevant to a congress & president who cud care fucking less about balancing the budget

unfortunately that socialist paul ryan got re-elected. for being such a "budget wonk", dude came into the house in 1999 (balanced budget) and climbed the political ladder to the highest chair under which we have racked up to $20 trillion in debt & infinite deficits which neither side care about addressing. ryan shits his pants when he attempts to curb the increase in the growth of spending (since he cant take the "blow-back"). id tell um "ok boys and girls, party's over ... NO MAS spending til we pay down the principale!"

sure i would committ suicide by way of 7 shots in the back upon doin that

lasvegaspersona's picture

My guess is that Ryan knows that the end is near for the dollar and is doing his best to keep things afloat as long as possible, hurting as few people as possible and hopefully with a plan for the other side.

Yes that is a generous assessment but I grew up in the same part of the country and Mid Westerers generally are not oriented to totalitarianism....we're 'nice'...ask Garrison Keillor.

VarenneRiver's picture

I also grew up in the Midwest. I agree with your assessment but Red Midwest doesn't seem to mind the MIC and the trillions we spend in that regard. These include my many relatives who think Romney was going to save us in 2012.

Seasmoke's picture

Skip the Recession. Go straight to Depression. 

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Collect $200, except now it can only get you a slice of bread.  If that!

all-priced-in's picture

So then if lower tax receipts mean recession - the easy fix is to keep raising tax rates!





Hohum's picture

Good news, though.  Federal deficit only up a little more than 10% year over year ;)

The Real Tony's picture

Unfortunately the inflation rate is said to only be 2 percent so the deficit will keep on building exponentially.

Iconoclast421's picture

200k waiters and bartenders > stagnant tax receipts.

wisehiney's picture

Regional theatre/concert hall here just cut prices for all future shows by 50%.

Can't you just see the panicy little hissy fits going on back in the dressing rooms?

lasvegaspersona's picture

In the real world (you know...the old one from 10 years ago) a rising stock market in a declining economy meant you were in....Zimbabwe.

Too early to call but this market could be the beginning of a beautiful (but hyperinflationary) ALL TIME HIGH!!! whooo whooo

thecondor's picture

So you thnk a hyperinflationary stawk market could pull the dollar up with it; a hyperinflationary dollar?

Contrariologist's picture
Contrariologist (not verified) Aug 11, 2016 11:11 AM

The sad thing is that this shows just how powerful the central banks water, but things keep floating. Gotta wonder how long, though.

thecondor's picture

And just like a magician, all the tricks are an illusion. 

Spungo's picture

We could change the definition of recession to "not a recession" and the problem is fixed.

bada boom's picture

However, this might be the first recession in which stock markets make new all time highs.  People aren't buying stocks on the non farm payroll numbers.  It's the fact that central banks are buying assets.  I am waiting for the ECB to announce more buying in another month.

brada1013567's picture

The HillBama economy is fine!

ajkreider's picture

These stats are not correct, if you go by the Daily Treasury Statments.  A full date-to-date will be available with today's release after 4 PM.  But witholding and income tax receipts for this date last year will be about 4.4% higher. 

July was lower because there were only 20 reporting days this year compared to 22 last year.  August this year will have 23 reporting days compared to last year's 20, and that will include a Monday and Wednesday, which are the biggest reporting days of the week.


Here is the link to DTS:


PS:  The info is in the bottom left-hand box.  You want to add the top two numbers there - witholding and individual income taxes.  After 4 today, compare August 10 this year and last.  You can access last year by going to the "Archive page" at the DTS site.

hooligan2009's picture

nice work, batman...ummm..ajkreider :)

these tax numbers are one way to measure "health" in the ecoomy - the other way is grwoth in corporate profits.

these numbers don't reflect the taxes paid in the form of obama care of course, but hey, they are a building block

ajkreider's picture

The DTS, in the same box, has the coporate tax data, which is indeed down year over year.  That's due to weaker earnings (obviously), but also changes to the tax code that moved forward some depreciation.


I'm not particularly interested in running some narrative or other about the strength of the economy.  I think we should look at the numbers as they are.