Obama's Job Recovery Is Not Only Slower Than Past Recessions, It's Completely Nonexistent

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman recently reviewed the recovery in unemployment rates during the past 10 recessionary periods since 1948.  They seemed to take some comfort from the fact that unemployment rates had recovered back to 2007 levels, albeit over a slightly prolonged time period compared to previous recessions.

The decline of the unemployment rate to roughly its 2007 level provides a natural occasion to take stock of the recovery and ask whether the US economy has now fully shaken off any legacies of the crisis. There are certainly reasons to doubt that the economy is entirely back to normal, from the very low level of long-run interest rates to the fact that this recovery has been much more prolonged than the recoveries from other post-war US business cycles, as Exhibit 1 shows.

GS

 

We admit their chart seems to do a good job of illustrating that even though the recovery took a little longer than normal the labor market has fully recovered to 2007 levels.  Kind of makes you feel like things aren't that bad after all, right? 

Unfortunately, the chart above is completely irrelevant because by analyzing the "unemployment rate" Goldman has answered precisely the wrong question (more on this shortly).

As such, we thought this was a good opportunity to illustrate the real recovery in the labor markets.  Rather than looking at unemployment rates, however, we reviewed Unemployed Persons as a % of Civilian Non-institutional Population.  As you can see, the graph below looks fairly similar to Goldman's chart with one glaring exception.  Obama's 2007 labor market "recovery" is basically non-existent as people have not gone back to work they've simply stop looking and have dropped out of the labor force.

Effectively, by looking at unemployment rates, Goldman has simply highlighted how many people have dropped out of the labor force and called it a recovery.  Nice try but we're not buying it.

Unemployed to population

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Here2Go's picture
Here2Go (not verified) Aug 14, 2016 11:23 AM

#Because O'Jobless

knukles's picture

It's Trump's fault and Hillary will fix it.
Where's my diazepam?

Here2Go's picture
Here2Go (not verified) knukles Aug 14, 2016 11:43 AM

Diazepam only works in conjunction with Hydroxyurea as an IQ inhibitor

Here2Go's picture

They call me "Dr. Love"

 

That is...  When they're not calling me "Dr. Detroit"

Bad Attitude's picture

Ah yes, Detroit. One of many Democrat success stories.

Forward (over the cliff)!

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

But, but, but, what about Summer of Recovery (circa 2010)…? Everything is wonderful, everything is awesome! Repeat.

Future Jim's picture
Should America Save Detroit?

A lifetime of education from America’s media elite, such as MSNBC, CNBC, NPR, PBS, the NYT, the Washington Post, CBS, NBC, ABC, and CNN, have given me the foundation and principles that empower me to think for myself and thereby figure out why we can’t let Detroit go bankrupt.

Detroit is too big to fail.

Republicans are turning Detroit into a plantation.

Don't blame the victims of greedy capitalists.

“To attack Detroit is to attack black.”

Only racists would oppose a bail out.

We are all in this together.

It takes a village (a government).

We have to move forward.

Somebody has to be in charge.

There is a Constitutional mandate to promote the general welfare.

Government rightly has the power to implement any good idea.

When we're all on the same page, everyone benefits.

Everyone has a right to good healthcare.

Everyone has a right to a living wage.

Everyone has a right to good nutrition.

Just think of it as reparations for slavery.

Do it for the children.

Do it for Trayvon.

What if it were Obama's kids?

What if it were your kids?

If it helps just one child, no cost is too great.

In a free-market, who would save a dying child?

It would be bad if George Bush did it, but we can trust Obama.

Obama is The One.

Obama! Give us our orders!

Only racists distrust Obama.

Don’t let Republicans make a liar out of Obama.

The alternative is chaos.

The alternative is anarchy.

What would Jesus do?

After all, Jesus would be a Democrat.

Detroit has done everything right. It has been ruled by Democrats and unions for 51 years, and ruled by black mayors for 49 years. It even has the 3rd highest income tax of any city in America. Therefore, the problems of Detroit must be part of a vast right wing conspiracy. As an example, consider how the internet has allowed the spread of right wing hate speech from people like this guy. He says stuff like:

No man has a right to the fruits of another mans labor.

Government dependency is the new plantation.

When we’re all free to pursue our own interests, everyone benefits.

In a free-market, children wouldn’t be dying.

It takes a village – but not a government.

Nobody has to be in charge.

The legitimate purpose of government, is to minimize government.

Sooner or later, socialists run out of other people’s money.

Individualism made America great.

The world is the result of our individual choices.

America is the least racist country in the world.

The myth of Obama is busted.

Progressivism = Liberalism + Fascism

Progressivism violates the Soul of Humanity.

You can instantly become the person you want to be.

Freedom is the Promise of Reality.

Now can you see the problem? These are the ideas on which America was founded, and we all know that America was founded on slavery. Such right wing hate speech is what scared all of the white people into leaving Detroit. It is like something out of Atlas Shrugged, in which the most productive people in America left the system and formed their own society. Therefore, the solution must come from the federal government because, while it is easy to leave a city, it would be much harder for people to leave the country, and Obama’s DHS would stop them if they tried – and rightly so.

What about when it is no longer Obama’s DHS? I know it is hard to imagine how America could elect anyone who is not a Democrat ever again – but that is why we need global governance, so that wealthy individuals cannot escape their debt to their country and to the world.

As you can see, a lifetime of education from America’s media elite have given me the foundation and principles that empower me to think for myself.

 

Flatchestynerdette's picture

Nice thesis paper. Agree with lots of your points.

My take? 3% 9 years out which is down by 2% from its highs.

Obama had nothing to do with the upswing but everyone sees now sees his extra-governmental style of governing including using the FedRes to pimp the markets out. That 3% that you see is government and leftist tech companies like Zuck's FB where free speech is outlawed. 

 

True Blue's picture

Turns out "Fiction" is the name of his little girly bicycle, and he doesn't like anyone beside himself "pedaling" it.

insanelysane's picture

Post riot / post looting cleaning and reconstruction crews would disagree.

Winston Churchill's picture

Vodka chasers work the same way.

Trust me on this.

knukles's picture

LOL
Oh, the days of rip roaring irresponsibility of long ago.
Ya know, if the world continues on this path much longer, there's gonna be no other escape.
Synthetic Cheapo Blue Pills

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If you're White (i.e. non-Jewish white), your odds of finding a decent job are slim.

Your best odds are, if you self-identity as a 'Female, Multi-Racial, Jewish War Vet'.  

Guaranteed to get a job.  Maybe you just need gender surgery, as this worked well for the sagging career of Bruce Jenner.  Alternatively, join the Chosenites and change your name accordingly.

/ sarc, I think

Consuelo's picture

 

 

 Trust me when I suggest that what is happening out there on the geopolitical stage (what is coming to light and being found out), will not look kindly on this demographic - over there in the midst of it all, nor over here, where all the $dealing and $lobbying are done and the loudmouths who support it.

Here2Go's picture
Here2Go (not verified) Kirk2NCC1701 Aug 14, 2016 11:45 AM

Look like MsCreant has it made then...

VWAndy's picture

 In the real economy of actual producers its even worse.  Only the best are still finding work.

I Write Code's picture

It's all very "Atlas Shrugged", a few do all the work and get paid peanuts and carry all the freeloaders, both at the bottom and at the top.

VWAndy's picture

 Yep thats how I see it too. The last three places I worked before the job I have now are either closed up or under new management. Filling my shoes is not as easy as they thought it would be. Turns out its a catch 22.

divingengineer's picture

Ok, let's not start believing the doom porn. Good jobs are still more plentiful here than most of the world. With a few provisos: You need to pick an industry, skill, location that is in demand, suits your talents and pays what you need to make. Easy? No, but try making it in Kenya, or Romania or Burma, you have a lot of opportunities here whether you think so or not.

VWAndy's picture

 The problem is they are not willing to pay enough. Most of the offers I get are laughable.

More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

That may be tru divining, but since when the holy shit did we have to compare our society to Kenya or Romania?  

GeezerGeek's picture

I think divingengineer meant we were the cleanest dirty shirt, or something like that.

Getting a good job is simple, except for step 1, which is to invent a time machine.

Mustafa Kemal's picture

If I was younger I would learn how to hack bitcoin, and then I would learn how to track down bitcoin hackers.  There is indeed a future out there but it isnt in producing anything, except weapons.

BandGap's picture

After being unemployed for over a year (16 months), I have never had so many options. For some fucked up reason (I am over 55) there is a shortage of old assholes with the ability to apply technology in a common sense manner.

 

TheLastMan's picture

If you want your foreskin, you can keep your foreskin™

 

(In a jar on the desk)


City_Of_Champyinz's picture

Obama wants as many people addicted to welfare as possible. 

nmewn's picture

Tis true.

As I often say on the subject of government issued numbers on unemployment, some day we will all be treated to a Josh Earnest-type fellow smiling on TeeVee, while bragging to an entire nation formed up in bread lines, clutching their EBT cards, that we have finally reached 0% unemployment ;-)

nibiru's picture

I know how to make everyone employed! We need socialism! Everyone is employed there - look at Venezuela, people now have farming jobs. FOR EVERYONE. Whether they like it or not: suddenly unemployment dropped to zero.

 

Maduro the magician.

Mustafa Kemal's picture

Using Venezeual as a strawman for the ills of socialism is a little sloppy.

I dont think it matters what system you use: when the price of your only commodity drops by 60% it hurts.  You might want to keep an eye on the US Oil industry. That's gonna hurt.

Yeah, the Soviets lost the cold war, but so did we, just a little later.

bornlastnight's picture

A funny thought came to me as I read your post. Where does the fed expect to get the money to pay for welfare if everybody winds up on the welfare roll? Clinton Foundation? :^)

djcando's picture

We should measure employment and plot it against population growth, not unemployment with subjective assessments of how many have dropped out of the labor force.  Only the turds in Washington could come up with such a perverse way of gauging things.

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Aug 14, 2016 11:40 AM

Barry is a Cultural Marxist

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wh7_hxVOaJE

 

Not quite Stalin, but barry wants the same environment.  Would be good to see barry's family die after he leaves office.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

I'm thinking he's inclined to total chaos. That's the only social situation post teleprompter that makes him look even glancing normal.

numapepi's picture

Damn... I up clicked it before I read the poster wants Obama's family dead. Now I can't undo it... I'll be much more careful next time!

RiverRoad's picture

The Clintons are the best "fixers" around on that subject.

GeezerGeek's picture

I'm more into shaming than death. Like finding out the truth about Michael. Or seeing Barry's real birth certificate, or college transcripts, or his papers from Indonesia. Or one of his daughters marry a white guy.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

Have you seen my hope and change??? I seem to have lost it somewhere.

Mustafa Kemal's picture

I have a copy around somewhere. Wonder how much I could get for it on ebay.

Jayda1850's picture

Americans are starting to wise up to the fact that the american dream is dead, but more importantly is that it's been dead for atleast 50 yrs. Since that time, it has been a mere illusion papered over with credit. If you told kids nowadays that, formerly, one person could comfortably support a family of 4+ by themselves and be able to retire, they would think it a myth if not for the fact that their grandparents can attest otherwise. The illusion is wearing mighty thin and I think I can actully see the end of the road and it much resembles a cliff. For those of us who do have a job, we know deep down that it's gonna be work until you drop.

RiverRoad's picture

Hillary isn't kidding the guy/gal on the street, either, who lost their retirement/college investments and homes in the Crash of '08 to her bankster friends.  Too many of those folks, their kids, and their friends and relations out there for her to fool IMO.

Omen IV's picture

"they would think it a myth if not for the fact that their grandparents can attest otherwise"

 

This is the core reason why White People are expensive and need to be eliminated - via  Murder by Neglect!

 

White People have expectations - it is these expectations that make them expensive vs Browns who see the world from where they came from.

 

Institutional Memory makes white people an enormous negative because they cannot accept the 1% getting 99% of the benefits in the system.

 

so they require substitution via unlimited immigration until they are reduced to 42% of the population and no longer a threat to the 1%

 

Die Faster white guy

GeezerGeek's picture

Those grandparents you're mentioning must be the grandparents of the boomers. Most boomer families I've known - and I'm one myself - had both husband and wife working. Not to make ends meet, as seems to be more the case now, but to enjoy a reasonable middle class lifestyle and keep up with the Joneses. Heck, it took both Bill and Hill "working it" to reach their hundreds of millions. I doubt either one could have done it without the other.

numapepi's picture

I blame Obama's war on small business...

http://incapp.org/blog/?p=2917

VWAndy's picture

 That crap started way before Onumbnut.

VWAndy's picture

Remember when the SnP 500 coralated to actual good jobs?