Following "Deadliest Month" In A Year, Ukraine President Warns Of "Full-Scale Russian Invasion"

Tyler Durden's picture

The last month has seen Russia pull out of peace talks (citing attacks in Crimea and detention of key individuals) and an increasing mobilization of Ukraine troops near the Russian border, and now, after the deadliest month since last August, Ukraine president Poroshenko has warned he isn't ruling out a full-scale Russian invasion and may institute a military draft if the situation with its neighbor worsens.

As Bloomberg reports, the confrontation between Ukrainian forces and the rebels in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region has worsened, Poroshenko said in the western city of Brody on Thursday.

His comments come a week after Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the government in Kiev of engaging in “terror” tactics in Crimea, which Ukraine’s fellow former Soviet republic annexed in 2014. Putin vowed to respond with “serious measures.”


“The probability of escalation and conflict remains very significant,” Poroshenko said in a televised speech. “We don’t rule out full-scale Russian invasion.”


The Ukrainian government, which says Russia is funneling troops, cash and weapons to the separatists, has rejected Putin’s accusations over Crimea and said its neighbor may use them as a pretext to mass more troops in the disputed Black Sea peninsula. Ukraine has enough forces along its eastern front line and near the border with the territory to resist a possible offensive, military spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said Thursday.


Rebels fired more than 800 artillery and mortar rounds at government positions during the past 24 hours, the most since last August, Motuzyanyk said. He added that Ukrainian positions along the front line stretching from near the rebel-held city of Luhansk to the government-controlled port Mariupol on the Azov Sea came under attack. July was the deadliest month since last August in the conflict, which the United Nations estimates has killed at least 9,500 people since 2014.




Putin may travel to Crimea on Friday to talk with local officials and visit a summer camp for children, Russian media group RBC reported on its website on Tuesday, citing three people it didn’t identify.

Of course, all western officials are calling for a resumption of talks but as we noted previously the so-called Minsk II agreement was set up to fail...

“Minsk II is set up in a way that Russia can blame Ukraine for not meeting the political targets, and then you lose the perspective that Russia is still fueling this conflict,” said a European diplomat in Moscow.

The preceding paragraph is precisely what one would expect from mainstream media. Here’s a short translation: “It’s all Russia’s fault”

In reality, it’s clear both sides have violated aspects of the Minsk II agreement.

However, Ukraine has taken none of the key steps on constitutional reforms and local autonomy laws for Donetsk and Luhansk as promised.


Tomorrow’s Ukraine discusses the reasons for a “deadlock” in Minsk II: A Trap, or an Escape?

“France is calling for the full implementation of the Minsk agreements by all parties.”
—French President Francois Hollande.


“We are confident that only through full and faithful implementation of the Minsk agreements of February 12, 2015 can we put an end to the bloodshed and find a way out of the deadlock.”
—Russian President Vladimir Putin.


“We are here to implement the Minsk deal, not to call it into question.”
—German Chancellor Angela Merkel.


Many leaders in the East and West find the Minsk II Agreement indispensable. But is this truly the case?


Why Isn’t Minsk II a Slam-Dunk?


Point 9 says that control of the border between Russia and Ukraine should be restored to Ukrainian control IF Ukraine successfully implements Point 11; which, in turn, requires Ukraine to enact constitutional amendments permanently decentralizing power and to pass laws permanently granting special status to separatist territory, which would entail local self-government, the right to form “people’s militias,” and more. And then there’s Point 10, which mandates the “pullout of all foreign armed formations” and the “disarmament of all illegal groups.”


But here’s the rub: popular opinion in Ukraine makes it impossible to discuss a special status for the breakaway territories until free and fair local elections are held there, and “free and fair” effectively means that illegal armed groups and foreign armies need to pull out. But Minsk II says that border control doesn’t need to be restored to Ukraine until after it decentralizes, while also requiring that local elections be held in accordance with Ukrainian law.


This is the definition of “deadlock.” Elections that prop up what Kyiv calls “terrorist regimes” would be difficult for Ukraine’s elite to sell to the people, regardless of the merits of such a plan. The general fear on Ukraine’s side is that if Kyiv approves of the elections in rebel-held territory, the separatist leaders—who would likely win any election held at their guns’ points—would claim some degree of legitimacy. Public opposition to granting even the slightest concessions to the separatists, much less elections that could possibly lead to “special status,” is driven by populists like Oleh Lyashko and his Radical Party, as well as by Yulia Tymoshenko and the Fatherland Party, both of whom stand to gain many seats in Parliament if MPs are unable to form a government and new elections are held.


The “Prisoners’ Dilemma” from game theory describes this situation exactly. The game illustrates why two rational actors might not cooperate, even though cooperation is in both their best interests.


The second main reason why Minsk II is seen as controversial is that it requires Ukraine to enact constitutional amendments that devolve some powers to local and regional governments. In the fall of 2015, it became clear that Ukraine was not going to be able to enact the constitutional amendments required. The German, French, Ukrainian, and Russian heads of state, meeting in Paris on October 2, 2015, informally decided to postpone the deadline into 2016.

Minsk II Designed to Fail

Minsk II

With so many obvious complications, Minsk II was setup to fail right from the start.

By accident or design, the setup is precisely what warmongers like.

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Footprint's picture

When a whole country is a False flag operation.

Latina Lover's picture

Having bungled their coup in Turkey, the USSA neocons are stirring up shit in the Ukraine, doubling down on their Ukie losers.

Winston Churchill's picture

They're pannicking,with good reason.

Starting a land war with Russia at this time of year would be suicidal, but not for them.

The clock has tolled out for Pax Americana,its whether humanity can survive its death throes.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

This shit again?  

I'm not sure what I am more sick of, Janet promising to raise rates ... at the next meeting, or the Russians about to invade all of Eastern Europe.  

Good riddance.  

CPL's picture

They are going to Soro's bunker to dig him up and unplug him from the chair. 

The other option is they can wait a couple more months.  He's pretty much a corpse being fed by tubes and ten pounds of wires implanted in his skull.  There's not much left of the jew 'dreamer' except the iron lung keeping his circulatory system operational.  He's a complete mess.

Although to speed up the process of extraction without risking military staff.  It would just be easier instead of digging him up to just bring in the cement trucks and start filling the venting system to the west about a kilometer away under a cairn of stones.  The complex should be out of air in a week with the infrastructure consuming oxygen faster than the 300+ personnel occupying the facility.

Then they can camp out the entrances and wait for the piggies to leave the house.

CuttingEdge's picture

As long as Biden's son is minting it on the gas board, as one guano crazy corrupt venal cunt would say: What does it really matter?

You guys really are governed by filth of the lowest order.

fx's picture

Yeah , we threaten to draft people - that will surely impress the Russians. I remember at least three such drafting rounds in 2013/2014 - and virtually nobody showed up for said drafts. And that was meant against the supposedly easy to defeat novorussians...

gargoylian's picture
gargoylian (not verified) fx Aug 18, 2016 2:45 PM

The truth about the conflict with Russia in Ukraine.

Boscovius's picture

Gargo keeps this link stored as a macro on a funtion key.

fleur de lis's picture

The United States Navy just named a new ship.

Harvey Milk.

For real. 

Manthong's picture

Ukraine moves on Russia…..

            HOW DO YOU SPELL  “TOLKIN Gulf “ ????


ACES FULL's picture

So now "Russia soon to invade Ukraine" is gonna be the new "Iran will have nukes in 6 months".

Manthong's picture

OK ..

So, it was a bit late.. the fingers were a bit dyslectic and the ten fingers of Stoly didn’t help with the spellng as well.

But.. how many of you guys  have been there, done that or have a genuine  black, yellow and green Tonkin Gulf Yacht Club patch ? ??

As the late, Robin Williams might have said.. "Good Morning, and I love the smell of Napalm at this hour".

ACES FULL's picture

Did you see John Kerry in action while you were there?

Shemp 4 Victory's picture


To-N-kin Gulf

Maybe is meant that Ukraine big circus, Poroshenko as Lord of the Three Rings now does seek Tolkein Gulf.

Manthong's picture

Dumbo Ears el presidente might want to made it the Tolkien Golf.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

It's been renamed: Gulf of Tonkinski.

IronForge's picture

Here's a quick shot of "Tolkien Gulf"; but I don't think there's going to be any major invasions from the Sea this time around for UKR...

UKR should be more concerned about a Full Scale Revolution - unless, of course, Mr. Poroshenko(sp?) is thinking about yet another False Flag Ops to start shelling into RUS to provoke everyone.

giovanni_f's picture

the key to control of europe is germany. if germany was lost to the us, europe would be lost to the us. the us will prefer the complete destruction of germany (and europe)  to any scenario where russia and germany could prosper even if the us did prosper in this scenario too (as shared prosperity is not what us-based dr. strangeloves like). ukraine and the migration crisis are but tools to drag germany into the same forever-war quagmire the us war junkies are addicted to. europe should wake up but its so-called elites are but assets for their transatlantic overlords.

falconer's picture
falconer (not verified) giovanni_f Aug 18, 2016 11:45 AM

The Zionists' hard-on for Germany goes back a lonnnng time

Manthong's picture

Gee, it seems your head is in the right quadrant, but I think you might want to reconsider the essentials.

The psychopaths that control the US are working on a +100 year plan that was conceived by the Rockefellers,
J P Morgan’s, Sinclairs, Casrnegie’s and their F’n ilk


When the SHTF.. we  out –gun them and take them out.

The good news is that the Cops and Mil guys are family and they will figure it out rather than hunt you, me the wife and kids down..     

Germany is pretty much toast now and the only guys that have guns there are the F’n  US Military…. . so how do the psycho’s preserve the chaos???

Well, we have totally destroyed the Arab world, so Ukraine is as good a place as any to sow new chaos.

But Nicholas II did not have a clue when the bankers did him in,..

I think Vlad knows better.


acommenter's picture

Eurasias' unification is a casus belli for both NWO and USA.

Mountainview's picture

The frontline hasn't moved an inch since 18 month. So go to Minsk and stop the b''lshit.

JuliaS's picture

Ukraine is on a tight schedule with first bridge between Russia and Crimea being scheduled for completion within a year. And as soon as the accompanying railroad goes into operation in 2017-2018, that means full autonomy of the region.

That Russian military drill from few days ago involving armored trains and rail-track equipped barges - what do you think that was about? Preparation to defend Crimea after, and potentially even prior to the bridge completion.

Once the path is established, say good-bye to CIA ops in North-Eastern Ukraine and forget about sneaking anything into the Azov Sea as the bridge will also blockade it completely. Attack the bride and Russia will have it's justification for swift retaliation.

Reminds me too much of the British operations to sabotage Orient Express line from Berlin to Baghdad prior to WW1, which largely precipitated the whole conflict.

Perimetr's picture

Poroshenko, the guy who launched a full-scale military attack on his own people in Donbass,

whose Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their relentless shelling of the civilian populations there,

Our man Poroshenko who has built up his forces on the Donbass border and then screams,

"The Russians are coming!"  in order to justify his impending assault.

Only this time, when the next attack fails, the armies of Donbass will move beyond their border with Ukraine,

in order to stop the ethnic cleansing and political repression, being carried out by Poroshenko

under orders from his bosses in Washington.

Never One Roach's picture

Hillary Clinton's resume:


1) failed Libyan invasion with resultant chaos and civil war and thousands dead;

2) destabilization of Ukraine with thousands dead, chaos and civil war;

3) destabilization of Syria with thousands dead, chaos and civil war;

4) Obamacare disaster and death panels; and,

5) so on and so forth....


What's not to like?! She's the perfect next Nobel Peace Prize recipient!

Son of Loki's picture
Obamacare 'Slowly Imploding'


"Yes we can!"


gee, Hillary and Pelosi have been awfully quiet on this subject despite forcing it down American throats.


Haus-Targaryen's picture

Porochenko isn't going to do shit.  Why?  He likes power and doesn't want to lose it.  

The Russians won't go anywhere until our economy implodes and we cannot afford to fight back. 

Hot air and bullshit. That is all it is. 

Mike Masr's picture

How you can tell whether Russia has really invaded Ukraine  


A helpful list of top ten telltale signs that will allow you to determine whether Russia has really invaded Ukraine!


If Russia invaded on Thursday morning, this is what the situation on the ground would look like by Saturday afternoon.

1. Ukrainian artillery fell silent almost immediately. They are no longer shelling residential districts of Donetsk and Lugansk. This is because their locations had been pinpointed prior to the operation, and by Thursday afternoon they were completely wiped out using air attacks, artillery and ground-based rocket fire, as the first order of business. Local residents are overjoyed that their horrible ordeal is finally at an end.

2. The look of military activity on the ground in Donetsk and Lugansk has changed dramatically. Whereas before it involved small groups of resistance fighters, the Russians operate in battalions of 400 men and dozens of armored vehicles, followed by convoys of support vehicles (tanker trucks, communications, field kitchens, field hospitals and so on). The flow of vehicles in and out is non-stop, plainly visible on air reconnaissance and satellite photos. Add to that the relentless radio chatter, all in Russian, which anyone who wants to can intercept, and the operation becomes impossible to hide.

3. The Ukrainian military has promptly vanished. Soldiers and officers alike have taken off their uniforms, abandoned their weapons, and are doing their best to blend in with the locals. Nobody thought the odds of the Ukrainian army against the Russians were any good. Ukraine's only military victory against Russia was at the battle of Konotop in 1659, but at the time Ukraine was allied with the mighty Khanate of Crimea, and, you may have noticed, Crimea is not on Ukraine's side this time around.

4. There are Russian checkpoints everywhere. Local civilians are allowed through, but anyone associated with a government, foreign or domestic, is detained for questioning. A filtration system has been set up to return demobilized Ukrainian army draftees to their native regions, while the volunteers and the officers are shunted to pretrial detention centers, to determine whether they had ordered war crimes to be committed.

5. Most of Ukraine's border crossings are by now under Russian control. Some have been reinforced with air defense and artillery systems and tank battalions, to dissuade NATO forces from attempting to stage an invasion. Civilians and humanitarian goods are allowed through. Businessmen are allowed through once they fill out the required forms (which are in Russian).

6. Russia has imposed a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine. All civilian flights have been cancelled. There is quite a crowd of US State Department staffers, CIA and Mossad agents, and Western NGO people stuck at Borispol airport in Kiev. Some are nervously calling everyone they know on their satellite phones. Western politicians are demanding that they be evacuated immediately, but Russian authorities want to hold onto them until their possible complicity in war crimes has been determined.

7. The usual Ukrainian talking heads, such as president Poroshenko, and others, are no longer available to be interviewed by Western media. Nobody quite knows where they are. There are rumors that they have already fled the country. Crowds have stormed their abandoned residences, and were amazed to discover that they were all outfitted with solid gold toilets. Nor are the Ukrainian oligarchs anywhere to be found, except for the warlord Igor Kolomoisky, who was found in his residence, abandoned by his henchmen, dead from a heart attack. (Contributed by the Saker.)

8. Some of the 1 million plus Ukrainian refugees are starting to stream back in from Russia. They were living in tent cities, many of them in the nearby Rostov region, but with the winter coming they are eager to get back home, now that the shelling is over. Along with them, construction crews, cement trucks and flatbeds stacked with pipe, cable and rebar are streaming in, to repair the damage from the shelling.

9. There is all sorts of intense diplomatic and military activity around the world, especially in Europe and the US. Military forces are on highest alert, diplomats are jetting around and holding conferences. President Obama just held a press conference to announce that “We don't have a strategy on Ukraine yet.” His military advisers tell him that his usual strategy of “bomb a little and see what happens” is not likely to be helpful in this instance.

10. Kiev has surrendered. There are Russian tanks on the Maidan Square. Russian infantry is mopping up the remains of Ukraine's National Guard. A curfew has been announced. The operation to take Kiev resembled “Shock and Awe” in Baghdad: a few loud bangs and then a whimper.

Armed with this list, you too should be able to determine whether or not Russia has really invaded Ukraine.



Aaron Hillel's picture

...2B Polish regulars entrenched in Slavyansk receive from their government the famous order "Not a Step Back!" and resist for about a week to the last soldier.


cheech_wizard's picture

The above was written by Dmitry Orlov:

Standard Disclaimer: ATTRIBUTION DAMMIT...or don't plagerize.

PrometeyBezkrilov's picture

This is so true and indeed is good scenario to adhere to while judging the events. I think the global elites, may be due to their extreme arrogance, overestimated stupidity of the general public. The public is not stupid and they see manipulation of the media and alphabetical agencies.

0phita's picture

Mike Masr--You nailed it! 

fx's picture

11. the ukronazis set up guerilla operations in the western part against the russian invaders

12. the Polish strongman "crazy horse" Kaczynski, almost collapses and hyperventilates while demanding an immediate US/NATO invasion via all polish media outlets every 10 minutes 24/7, 52/100.

13.The EU imposes a total sanctions war on Russia

14. The US steps up building and arming its anti-missile shield  even more. Being interviewed at hole #16, Barry justifies it by stating that given the recent developments in Ukraine, the probablity of an imminent nuclear attack on Europe by Iran has risen to 500 %, at a minimum.

15. The IAAF decides to strip Russia from all olympic and world championship medals ever won, because new evidence produced by WADA confirms that Russian athletes have been doped for at least the past hundred centuries. That was even long before man invented doping and even long before Russia ever came into existence. Which goes to show how evil Russia has been all along.

Nylsaar's picture

Kinda like Dec 24, 1979?  plz..



Tarzan's picture

Biden's late son was neck deep in the Ukraine debacle...

There are rumors that his son was assassinated over it. 

War with Russia and China at the same time would be our undoing.  Who would buy our bonds at that point?  How will the Fiat cash cow continue to flow?  The Golden Goose is old and grey.  We're toothless tigers with a loud roar, praying nobody calls our bluff!

The world is turning away, our grip is loose, and the plot thickens as we march toward crowning the Whore! 

Very soon, In a flash, our nakedness will be revealed for all to see.  All our riches will vanish, our power washed away, and all the peoples of the world will wonder in amazement as Fiat burns to the ground in one huge flash crash, as the DC cabal is crushed!

Freddie's picture

Wasn't that Biden's other son?   They do kill people's kids to send a message.  This is their stock in trade.  Charles Lindberg's baby, Adm Morrison's son and others.

detached.amusement's picture

the golden goose was beastialized until it stopped producing golden eggs

crazzziecanuck's picture

Poroshenko inheritted the war from Turchinov so it's not completely fair to blame him for "launching" it all.  However, he's failed to lead.  It's not hard to see why he was also doomed from the start.  If he had any integrity, he'd just resign. The problem is that things could go from bad to worse given the crop of Ukrainian "leaders" out there.

lakecity55's picture

General Winter always sides with Russia!

The_Juggernaut's picture

I'm not a big fan of Russia/Putin (or their assorted ZH asslickers) but there's something comical about the US lecturing them about amassing troops within their own borders.

Treason Season's picture

No fucking shit! These Putin gagas need to go over to saker's place and they can all sing the praises of Masser Putie.

gatorengineer's picture

The coup in Turkey was an Erdogan operation....  Not USSA Neocon.  Erdogan is a Neo-cons best friend, outside of Tel Aviv and Riyadh