Philly Fed 'Hope' Jumps As New Orders Plunge, Employment Crashes To 7 Year Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite a modest bounce in Philly Fed headline data - thanks purely to a jump in 'hope' from 33.7 to 45.8 (the highest in 18 months) - the underlying components of the Philly fed survey are a disaster. New orders collapsed, employment crashed to 7 year lows, Average workweek plunged, prices paid soared, and inventories fell.

6 of the 9 indicators fell...


But hope soared to 18 month highs...

Optimism is all they have left...

The August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated, on balance, that growth in the region’s manufacturing sector is currently weak. The survey’s indicators for current general activity and shipments were positive, while the indicators for new orders and employment were negative. The indicators for future conditions rose sharply from last month’s readings, however...

The current new orders index dropped significantly from a reading of 11.8 in July to -7.2 in August. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in new orders (27 percent) was less than 1 point lower than last month; however, the percentage of firms reporting a decrease (34 percent) was 18 points higher than last month. The current shipments index rose slightly, from 6.3 to 8.4. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in shipments (35 percent) was 6 points higher than last month. The indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times fell into negative territory, recording values of -15.0 and -3.8, respectively. The index for inventories dropped from -4.3 to -9.2. The indicators for unfilled orders, delivery times, and inventories have been negative for most of this year.

The survey’s indicators of employment weakened considerably. The employment index fell 18 points to -20.0, which is its largest negative reading for the current year. Although 67 percent of the firms reported no change in employment this month, the percentage reporting decreases (25 percent) significantly exceeded the percentage reporting increases (5 percent). The workweek index also fell, from -3.6 to -11.5. Twenty-five percent of the firms reported a decrease in average work hours, and only 13 percent reported an increase.

And finally, initial jobless claims are hovering at 43 year lows...

Charts: Bloomberg


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TeamDepends's picture

Hope is not a strategy.
-Hillary The Lizard Queen

knukles's picture

I feel cared for and warm what with everybody starting to refer to Them as Reptilians, lizards, etc.
Most people thought I was crazy all these years, but WtH, I mean every other Conspiracy Theory's been proven Fact, so let's all get ahead of the curve and just accept that They are Shape Shifting Reptilians who feast upon the Blood and Bodies of innocent Children, sustaining Their life force by consuming people's very Souls.

Think about the Temporal Distractions about us .....  The lies and misdirections. 
Why would anybody who cares condemn wide swaths of humanity to war, pestilence, uprisings, poverty, crime and substance abuse?

Because they feast upon misery and pain.

Reptilians, indeed

khaproperty's picture

Yes, may be. But manu-index is only under 20% of GDP in US.

Arnold's picture


Williams and Dud-ley..............

Opening riff from Deuling Banjos.

( Repost to save energy)

sanddweller's picture

So unempolyment is actually at a 7 year low, what happend to that dubious report last month claiming 255,000 new job starts?

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

It had a 50% 'adjustment' upwards.  Complete BS, the algo's just ran away with the day to cover tracks.

Bill of Rights's picture

Basically were at make it up until we can't.

silverer's picture

Whatever it takes to get the establishment through the election.

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

God damn it, this is bullish.  I hate this shit.  The world unravels, and "Markets" soar.  Every investment manager and 401k investor needs to be lined up against a wall and shot.  Maybe rocks thrown, I don't know, I'm becoming more tolerant of other people's ways, what can I say?

FireBrander's picture

"Markets $oar" because there are Trillions in free money looking for a return...and past results show that the "markets" are the best place to maximize that return.

There simply is no other game for these Trillions, so they will keep pouring into stocks until the free money ends...or the 'promise' of free money becomes a 'maybe' at which point people will start looking for the exit sign should that 'maybe' turn into a "no more free money"...that's when the wheels come off.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Trillions of debt ... my question ... Who owns the debt?

This is a zero-sum game. US Stock Market - US Debt = "0"


WAKE-UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ICEBERG AHEAD ... TURN THE SHIP.


youngman's picture

They hope it changes and fast or they are going to be out of business...that is why HOPE is up

innertrader's picture

As a trader, I learned early that "hope" was no way to trade or live.  One of my favorite sayings was, "Hope is for little girls and virgin brides."  Although I still won't trade on "hope" and I'm going to actively promote TRUMP, I do HOPE TRUMP IS ELECTED AND LIVES THROUGH HIS TERM!  If not for us, for the next generation.  They are in enough trouble already!!!



JailBanksters's picture

I thought things are supposed to get better in a Recovery ?


FreeShitter's picture

All depends on what "is", "is". In this case "are" suffices.

trueFacts's picture

we dont need no stinking jobs, just gimme my EBT and medicaid card and take my kids to pre-pre-kindergarten while i play video games, ...the robots will do everything for us, i think hillary said so.  i need a hillaryphone to replace my obaamaphone.

starman's picture

Look at Bill Clinton he looks like a fng ghost!  

starman's picture

Look at Bill Clinton he looks like a fng ghost!