Paul Tudor Jones Emerges As Latest Mega Bear With Record Surge In S&P Puts

Tyler Durden's picture

While over the past week more attention has been paid to the George Soros Open Society leaks than to the latest 13F filed by Soros Fund Management, the family office of the Hungarian billionaire, it is worth recalling that earlier this week we showed that confirming Soros' latest bearish turn, the hedge fund had loaded up on enough S&P puts to bring its total holdings as % of AUM to just shy of all time highs.

However, a more interesting 13F filing which largely slipped between the cracks over the past week, was that of Tudor Investment Corp, the hedge fund belonging to Paul Tudor Jones, the "legendary macro trader" as defined by Bloomberg, which as we reported two days ago had fired 15% of its employees, and which is now said to be implementing minimum risk levels and urging its traders to take on much more risk to stem the losses.

It was interesting, because it revealed that Paul Tudor Jones is even more bearish than George Soros (and perhaps even of Carl Icahn), based on the surge in the fund's S&P puts, which rose from $490 million notional to $1.7 billion notional, a nearly four-fold increase, and making it the biggest such position in the fund's history, dwarfing the $301 million in notional calls the fund had on at the same time.  This was the biggest delta between Tudor's puts and calls on record.

In fact, as of this moment, PTJ's gross put exposure amounts to 37% of his entire disclosed long equity exposure of just over $4.7 billion.

The chart below shows the dramatic increase in Tudor Investment Corp SPY puts...

 

... relative to the reported long equity exposure as per the fund's monthly 13F filings.

Considering his performance, and the $2.1 billion in redemptions already in the public domain, it won't come as a surprise that PTJ is also hurting. However, considering the surge in bearish sentiment, it appears that the reason for this hurt is that yet another billionaire decided that the market was far too frothy and was actively hedging (and likely shorting, although those positions are not revealed in 13F filings), only for central banks to rip it even higher courtesy of the now record $200 billion in monthly QE, the result of which is that yet another trading legend may soon be crushed.

Those curious if PTJ will keep his massive S&P put position - just as Carl Icahn has confident that he will win this particular war with the central banks - or if instead he will unwind it, will have to wait until mid-November when the fund's Q3 13F is released.

Source: 13F

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ACES FULL's picture

So damn near EVERY billionaire trader and hedge fund manager are record short on this market yet it continues to reach new highs? Not adding up.

AnonTrader's picture

it's just a simple hedge of their longs ... so no bear panic please

ACES FULL's picture

Thanks,I'm not a stock guy. Just common sense says that everyone who is anyone in stocks can't all be short at the same time with record highs in stocks. If the central banks are that strong even I can see where to position in stocks. Just curious,do you trade the lesser known PM's any?

giovanni_f's picture

stock declines are deflationary. propping up the stock indices therefore has become a priority for the transnational financial cabal. while it is true that the current valuations are obscene by ANY standard - i would not hold my breath for deep are the pockets of all those central banks with their electronic printing presses.

 

prefan4200's picture

Is it possible, bear with me, that the rise in US markets is being perpetuated by Russian programmers (hackers?) who have figured out how to out-algo the algos and move the US markets higher on low volume or any volume?  Is it also possible the Russians know how to collapse the market, too, and will drive a massive fall in US markets at a time of their choosing and with the intent of inflicting the greatest damage?  Putin and the Russians have outflanked and outmaneuvered Obama at every turn and this may be their biggest victory yet, if they can pull this off.  This theory sounds "out there" but it is a possibility and if so, the bear (Russia) will at some point release the bear. 

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

The only new purchases being made in the "Markets", are coroporations buying stock, and shorts being covered.  Mostly shorts covering.  The more you short - the higher it goes via CB Futures Ramping!  Like a Chinese Finger Trap, except it's all of your money and not your finger, and it plays for keeps!

giovanni_f's picture

The only new purchases being made in the "Markets", are coroporations buying stock, and shorts being covered.

plus CBs. SNB buys Apple like there's no tomorrow, BOJ aims at becoming the largest stockholder for Japans top 50.

asteroids's picture

Make no mistake puts and calls are "bets" on future outcomes. Since you don't make a bet to lose money PTJ must have a lot of faith in his version of the future. The guy opposite from him must equally have the same amount of faith. My question is, who sold him the puts and can he pay them if he loses?

Global Hunter's picture

This is a great question.  VIX too, somebody or something(s) are short these puts when markets at historical highs, somebody or somethings are short VIX when its at historical lows...they are "picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer".  Why? Feels to me like they're doubling down, doubling down again and again...

Lost My Shorts's picture

I was just reading "Market Timing for Dummies" and it said:  stock prices crash when all the big boys are balls-to-wall long and rush to the exit at the same time.  Stock prices do not crash when the big boys have already exited and positioned for a crash.  Furthermore, it said big boys only go on TV and promote their position when they want out of it.  For example, they are mega-bullish on CNBC when they want to sell, and brag about their magnificent pile of puts when they wish they could unload those puts on someone else.

Should I return the book for a refund?

css1971's picture

They're getting ready to 'pull it', to take Clinton out. They got the nod ahead of time.

TideFighter's picture

Liberty goin' to put a cap in yo' ass, son.

When are those hot pockets done?

SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Good luck to you bro. Fundamentals matter not. 

LawsofPhysics's picture

So what? Who (or rather what central bank) is on the other side of that trade?

Here2Go's picture
Here2Go (not verified) Aug 19, 2016 1:31 PM

2284 ~ 9.2.16

Rainman's picture

okie-dokie ..we already know what happens when the ' really smart money ' runs to the other side of the boat at the same time

lychee_candle's picture

that'd just be second best bullish signal for this year, 1st being brexit of course...

WillyGroper's picture

heads up...signed a week ago.

sumthin wicket this way comes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJcAVZVMSAY

RawPawg's picture

i'm not a trader/invester,but that sounds like a wise move

but then again,what do I know?...I'm just a PM's Stacker

sudzee's picture

Can't wait till CNBC headlines read " nobody saw this coming" .

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Aug 19, 2016 1:42 PM

Soros' latest bearish turn, the hedge fund had loaded up on enough S&P puts to bring its total holdings as % of AUM to just shy of all time highs.

 

Really?

 

Perhaps Georgie is buying puts as a hedge to his long positions?

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

This market runs on shorts.  Literally.  There is not other price movement that Futures being ramped, corporates buying back stock, and short covering.  the buy backs stop with the short covering, so what is a trader to do?

HedgeAccordingly's picture

Hedges are a cost of doing biz.

wisehiney's picture

Sounds like rainbow warriors have taken over wall street.

Long and Strong is now short and limp.

wedderburn's picture

"PTJ's gross put exposure amounts to 37% of his entire disclosed long equity exposure"

 

just hedging to lock in gains

no point in being greedy

ratava's picture

These big shot traders made their money by being smart. Being smart does not matter any longer. The stocks will go a LOT higher unless people overthrow the corrupt political and banking 'elites' somehow.

1. Central banks printed a lot of money. Multiples of what existed before 2008.

2. Mega banks are hoarding it all. None of it made it into the real economy.

3. Mega banks are a lot smarter at leveraging that money through financial wizardry and manipulating the market with it through algos than they ever were before.

We have another decade of bull market ahead of us. You don't think its right? You think it's unhealthy for the economy? Who gives a FUCK.

This is Soviet Russia, capitalism style.

cognitive dissident's picture

glad you're drinking their koolaid, I hear it's a jim jones recipe... you are wrong sir.

Iconoclast421's picture

A nominal value of $1.6 billion in SPY put options? Hahahhaha not for long, sucker. The market will tank not until shortly after all those puts expire worthless.

gdpetti's picture

Stupid is as stupid does. When a bank holiday is declared and these bets are wiped blank and become meaningless, will they've learned anything or will they need to wait for another turn of the wheel for the lesson to repeat once again? They simply don't think it will happen to them. Funny how tunnel vision works. These guys think the current system will keep running as usual, no matter what.