Trump By A Landslide?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Based on this analytic structure, Trump may not just win the election in November--he might win by a landslide.

If we believe the mainstream media and the Establishment it protects and promotes, Trump has no chance of winning the presidential election. For starters, Trump supporters are all Confederate-flag waving hillbillies, bigots, fascists and misogynists. In other words. "good people" can't possibly vote for Trump.

Even cartoon character Mike Doonesbury is fleeing to Vancouver to escape Trumpism. (Memo to the Doonesbury family: selling your Seattle home will barely net the down payment on a decent crib in Vancouver.)

For another, Trump alienates the entire planet every time he speaks.

The list goes on, of course, continuing with his lack of qualifications.

But suppose this election isn't about Trump or Hillary at all. Suppose, as political scientists Allan J. Lichtman and Ken DeCell claimed in their 1988 book, Thirteen Keys to the Presidency, that all presidential elections from 1860 to the present are referendums on the sitting president and his party.

If the public views the sitting president's second term favorably, the candidate from his party will win the election. If the public views the sitting president's second term unfavorably, the candidate from the other party will win the election.

(Lichtman published another book on his system in 2008, The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President.)

Author/historian Robert W. Merry sorts through the 13 analytic keys in the current issue of The American Conservative magazine and concludes they "could pose bad news for Clinton."

If five or fewer are negative for the incumbent, the incumbent party will win the election. If six or more are negative, the incumbent party loses the election. Merry counts eight negatives for President Obama's second term, which if true spells defeat for the Clinton ticket.

Whether the 13 issues are positive or negative for the candidates is of course open to debate, but consider what it means that Trump won the Republican nomination despite the near-universal opposition of the Establishment.

Consider that some polls found that 68 percent of adults think the country is on the wrong track and a recent average of six polls on the subject concluded that 64% of adults feel the nation is moving in the wrong direction.

This means 2/3 of the nation's adults no longer buy into the Establishment/ mainstream media's narrative that the economy is expanding nicely, things are going in the right direction and Hillary Clinton has a lock on the presidency.

Merry scored the economy as a positive for the incumbent party, but based on the public's view of where the nation is heading, I suspect the reality that the economy is weakening rapidly can no longer be hidden from the voting public. If we score the economy as a negative, that's nine negative keys for the incumbent party, well above the six minimum.

Based on this analytic structure, Trump may not just win the election in November--he might win by a landslide--with landslide usually being defined by an overwhelming advantage in electoral college votes or 60% of the popular vote.

As improbable as this may seem at the moment, consider the improbability of Trump capturing the Republican nomination. Consider the nature of Clinton's support: a mile wide (encompassing the entire Establishment) but only an inch deep.

If the mainstream media has failed to persuade the American public that everything's going in the right direction, why should anyone remain confident that they can persuade the American pubic that Hillary will be their president come heck or high water?

As I have noted before, there are very few ways left to stick your thumb in the eye of the elitist, predatory, self-serving Establishment that won't get you tossed in prison other than voting against their candidate, which in this election is Hillary Clinton.

Memo to Clinton supporters: if you want to persuade the American public the nation is going in the right direction, you'll have to actually change the direction rather than just promise more of the same.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mass_hysteria's picture
Mass_hysteria (not verified) Aug 29, 2016 8:45 AM

If it's not rigged it will be 5-10 point victory

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Trump is packing stadiums.....Hillary not so much.

 

Hillary hasn't given a single press conference in 2016.

 

stinkhammer's picture

Hillary has a big fat nasty ass and lies like a rug; just fucking go away please you fucking nasty cunt

If voting mattered, they wouldn't let us

philipat's picture

Hell yes, the Clinton body count is more than the attendence at her "rallies". You would know, Vince...

manofthenorth's picture

What if Trump wins "by a landslide" the popular vote and Killary wins the electoral vote "by a landslide" ?????

More popcorn please.

WordSmith2013's picture
Electoral Calculus Points to a Trump Landslide Victory

 

http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=44612

 

"Clinton Can Only ‘Win’ By Stealing The Election"
RiverRoad's picture

The new Silent Majority is clearing their throats... 

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Crowd at Trump Rally in Akron, Ohio is a Sea of Women, Minorities, Independents And Former Democrats (VIDEO)

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/crowd-trump-rally-akron-ohio-sea-women-minorities-independents-former-democrats-video/

Barnaby's picture

Yeah but it's Ohio. All the white guys are working, and everyone else is unemployed, going to a rally of some sort.

scm's picture

Thump promises something different? That's a fucking joke.

More minimum wage

More patriot act

More NSA

More military spending

More war

More military gear for cops

More taxes (tariffs)

Snowden is a traitor

No mention of ending the fed

A wall to keep us in

Against legalization

His vp is pro tpp

And what's is so different about him?

 

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?491719-Campaign-Evaluation-D...(POTUS)

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?480115-Trump-Opposition-Rese...

Son of Loki's picture

National Propaganda radio spent the entir emorning bashing "crazy andinsane" Hillary Clinton who wildly bombed the crap out of of all those Libyan civilans and is assiting Soweto Obama killing thousands of Syyrians. ...and how dangerous it would be to have such an "excessively careless" person's hands near the Nuke button.

 

They hit her hard on her seizure disorders opining whether it's due to her stroke or brain tumor.

The host sounded scared that such an "unbalanced" person would lead out nation...

 

 

.............................ha ha ha...had you fooled, eh!

cobra1650's picture

Hillary promises free toilet paper, health care, education, weed, and jenny craig but will she deliver

adanata's picture

 

I know it's a grave disappointment to many of us but Ron Paul is not representing the interests of the People at this time.

FireBrander's picture

One side can win by a "landslide"; and it's up to Trump whether it will be himself or Hillary.

Hillary is not in control here; her fate depends upon Trump...if he can maintain being "Presidential" and offer up a different road than the Bush, Obama, Clinton route, then Trump wins easily.

If Trump goes back to the "Fuck you all" Trump; then he loses badly.

Husk-Erzulie's picture

I honestly don't know what to make of this guy but often I wonder if maybe, just maybe, The Hidden Hand actually doesn't have a hook in him.  He may not be that savvy when it comes to Mordor On The Potomic, but if he really is basically not under control, even an outside chance, then this, more than anything else, qualifies him for the office in my mind.  In his favor, the most scummy of the scum bags are 'never trumpers' see John McCain, Paul Wolfowitz, Henry Paulson etc.

My 2/100 of a dying Fern.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

My feeling is that Trump voters have to get him to commit to something big before the election.

My suggestion would be 'End the Fed' and try to put a pair of handcuffs (never mind a leash) on the CIA.

But if he can't commit to that, never mind follow through, then what has really been accomplished?

FireBrander's picture

"Trump Voters" are going to vote for Trump; like he said, he could shoot someone and they'd still vote for him...that's the power of the Cult.

Who may not vote for him are the 15% of voters, that belong to neither Cult, that decide every election; that is what Trump needs to focus on, not his rabid base...they are locked, loaded and will braze a blizzard to vote for Trump...Hillary's base; meh...it better not be raining nationally.

poeg's picture

Serioulsy? Even a Liberal from Canada can clearly see hatred for the establishment is ALL that's driving this election. Trump's single selling point which is utterly unassailable just happens to be "NOT A MEMBER OF THE POLITICO". If anyone bothered to count it all up, there has to have been billions in dollars and sweat capital poured onto the Trump bonfire in an attempt to drown it out and its still burning. That EVER happened before in America? Anywhere?

FireBrander's picture

That's why the Presidential race isn't a pure popularity race and why you can't run on popularity.

It's very easy to win even though you're "unpopular".

Bill Clinton had 43% "popularity"...big fail...but 69% of the Elector vote..."landslide" win.

That is why Trump needs to aim for the 15% of voters that are not members of either Cult; that 15% decides the election and that 15% is NOT "send all the Mexicans back" nor are they "Ban all Muslims"...but they ARE, MOST CERTAINLY ARE, secure our borders and defend against terrorists entering our country...nearly the same thing I know, but it's all in how you say it and if Trump wants to win he needs to speak in the latter manner.

Mr. President's picture
Mr. President (not verified) manofthenorth Aug 29, 2016 10:06 AM

THIS!!..

Exactly this, and only this.

 

And while I think it would be great if folks 'rise up' after the rigging...c'mon people..the sheeple will graze in the dirt and like it.

 

(60 unhappy zh commenters hardly counts as a 'rising up)

 

Just sayin.

Infocat's picture

Let us hope she dies long before she gets to the Election Box! http://www.truthjustice.net/

Dugald's picture

 

Trump is a stick to beat a dog with.....

DeadFred's picture

The election will hinge on the  economic collpapse. If it happens this fall Trump will win. If not Kaine will be our next president (after Hillary throws that clot and dies).

TrajanOptimus's picture

Voters are ALREADY experiencing the economic collapse.

Time for you to crawl out from under that rock.

poeg's picture

Guessing he's counting people holding three part time jobs as happy campers.

European American's picture

FINALLY Tyler posts a reality check article.

Trump in a Landslide.

Even the braindead Hillary Collective sees  the writing on the wall and wants at least the rest of their bodies to survive.

Epic landslide; greatest margin of victory in the history of presidential elections.

(Note; going to bath in his pre-victory glory tomorrow night in Washington State when he comes to town. Should be a breath of fresh air for stuffy liberal western washington)

Handful of Dust's picture

Crooked Clinton is mustering all the Crooks she knows including Comey, Bill, Lowrenta, Soweto, and on and on to rig this election.

 

 

Omen IV's picture

Bill Cosby has endorsed th Clintons

Things that go bump's picture

I'm sure they're proud to have his endorsement. It might have been better if he kept his rapist opinions to himself.

de3de8's picture

Bill and Bill, birds of a feather.....

Overfed's picture

I just wish he would come to Vancouver or Portland. I hate driving to Everett.

RiverRoad's picture

"You can fool all of the people some if the time...."  This is not one of those times.

Infocat's picture

Honestly, who the fuck cares what Hellary does?! http://www.truthjustice.net/

Jim in MN's picture

Three gender benders in a port-a-potty?

On a good day.

J S Bach's picture

If it IS rigged, it will mean a revolution, so it's good either way.

JRobby's picture

That is how I see it too.

When people are getting to the end of their ropes they start to look for answers. This inequality is by design and it has become visible to many more.

Next, fix the legislative and kill off all the insider serving regulation.

 

KickIce's picture

Well it'll have to wait until after football season.

ToSoft4Truth's picture

So Hillary is the final straw and will prompt you to shoot-up city hall? 

 

I bet you don't.... 

TrajanOptimus's picture

Local governments are not the problem, the Federal Government IS!

ToSoft4Truth's picture

At least be honest with yourself. 

 

 

 

photonsoflight's picture

Putin has said if hillery is elected it means ww3. Let's be honest. The prime targets will be hillerys voters , will it not? Voting hillery is suicide. Live with it. ( pun intended).

sessinpo's picture

WW3 happens anyway. It is just a matter of time (timing).

Davy Crockett's picture

> WW3 happens anyway.

Why should it?  Nobody wants it.  Not China, not Russia.  

The only people who want it are Israel and the current US administration.  If Trump gets in, there will be no WW3. 

Trump 2016

Things that go bump's picture

Local governments are the federal government in miniature. They're only constrained by the amount of money they can collect in taxes and there's a funding disaster in the pipe regarding promised pensions that they're contractually obligated to pay and will try to pay by raising property taxes through the stratosphere. It's starting already in Illinois. 

BeerMe's picture

I don't know.  It all starts local.  My local conservative government throws money at stupid shit all the time.

de3de8's picture

BS, govt is govt, all the same, just a matter of scale.

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

But local governments are the training ground, no?

Rancho Texican's picture

Not City Hall, the Capitol building. And yes, 1776 will commence again if they install Hitlery.

sessinpo's picture

Okey dokey. Well you have the ears of ZH members. We look forward to your revolution after the election if trump loses. I would imagine you might need to make some plans.

Should we expect something by the inauguration? Or maybe you'll need more time. Perhaps by the summer of 2017? Then we can call it the summer of the recovery revolution.