"Everyone's On The Same Side Of The Boat Again" - Hedge Funds Have Never Been More "All-In"

Tyler Durden's picture

Since February, "nothing else matters" but the $200 billion or so per month of central bank money printing and asset purchasing. Correlations across asset classes are at or near record highs (putting risk parity funds in grave danger) with global bond yields at record lows and stock prices at record highs. However, as one veteran trader exclaimed, "they all on the same side of the boat again," pointing to the record speculative long positioning in US equities and record speculative shorts in VIX... a situation, he says, "can only end in catastrophe."

Everyone's "all-in" on the fear of not conforming to the norm... Buy Everything Stupid...

And the momentum chasing is just getting worse... As stocks go higher and vol goes lower, leverage speculative positioning is just chasing that trend adding to already record extreme positioning...

 

Interestingly - despite record low bond yields - speculators have swung back to an aggregate short Treasury Futures positioning...

 

So to clarify - the "all-in"-ness of the speculative traders has never, ever been so high across asset classes - record short VIX futures (an implicity leveraged long trade), record longs in Dow and Nasdaq futures, and surging shorts across the Treasury complex (implicitly a long stock trade if 'norm' correlations revert)

What could possibly go wrong?

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Yen Cross's picture

 Paging Carl I-Con, Ackmen is on the 'Red Phone", and needs MOAR deck chairs.

JRobby's picture

Capsize!

Cement Shoes & Overcoat

espirit's picture

Doesn't matter.

They're stuck on a sandbar.

bleu's picture
bleu (not verified) espirit Sep 4, 2016 9:50 PM

Too bad the American boat will stay stuck on the sandbar FOREVER.
http://wp.me/p4OZ4v-3z

JenkinsLane's picture

Misery loves company.

buzzsaw99's picture

Bullish. [/no sarc.]

espirit's picture

No volume.

No churn.

No nuffin.

[/no sarc.]

NoWayJose's picture

The problem is that any crash in stocks, or bonds or housing - risks taking down all 3. The exit doors are not bigger - but the building is more crowded - so the panic to get out will be greater.

JRobby's picture

Trampled or Drowned

No matter

Neo Anderson's picture

One ALWAYS runs ahead of the others when it comes to crashes. Always! Then you see the other investment vehicles say "oh that is 'them', but we are fine", followed by a few months of stability before the crash of all the bad "house of cards" .... and even some good house of cards. (I use a good house of cards metaphore and say the cards are glued in place...... so they don't crash as easy, but a bad enough situation will crash them too)

There is always one the starts the downturn and runs first. One can go through almost all the panics and see it themselves. Just a little research will show it.

Problem is timing of the event. I can sit here and say with 1005 certainty that the United States gov't will default. Problem I would have is with timing. Could be tomorrow, could be 100 years, could be 1000 years. Anybody that says FOR SURE THEY KNOW WHEN.... is throwing darts blind folded and hoping just to come into the general area of the board.

I do agree with you though NoWayJose about your analogy though of the exit doors and there being more people. Means more people are going to get trampled. And it's actually ironic that more people in the building, might actually cause less people to get out safely.

GRDguy's picture

Teen-age peer pressure;  herd mentality; not much difference.

USofAzzDownWeGo's picture

I thought Gundlach, Sors, Jimmy boy and every billionare was short the market?? When they say what they're doing you do the opposite. FED can print to infinite and buy up the stock market WITH EASE. Only way we crash or correct is if Trump wins and they pull the plug. 

JRobby's picture

Will they tell all their buddies to get out first?

(Laugh Track Deafening)

Heavy's picture

Just fucking break already....

maldorer's picture

Same article, different day, month, week, whatev. 

the.ghost.of.22wmr's picture
the.ghost.of.22wmr (not verified) Sep 4, 2016 6:11 PM

Look!

 

A financial article on ZH!

Dragon HAwk's picture

So if i had a couple bucks now is the Time to jump In Right?

espirit's picture

Pretty crowded on the top floor, but lots of room down below.

Watch out for falling bodies though.

cognitive dissident's picture

christ, just wreck this shit already, it should have happened LAST August for fuck's sake... won't somebody pick up the goalie's stick and chuck it over the glass? Enough...

The Duke of New York A No.1's picture

Is that a Hanjin Super Carrier rolling over in the pict?.

RabbitOne's picture

Bob Farrell said "...When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen..."

F em all but 6's picture

Me thinks the ship of fools has run aground