Last Thursday we previewed that in today's regional election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the home state of Angela Merkel, she was looking at the unthinkable: losing and not just to anyone but to her nemesis, the anti-immigration AfD. This is what we reported: "According to the latest shock poll, released late on Wednesday, the AfD is leading the CDU by 23 percent to 20 percent, with the Social Democrats, who currently run the rural state in coalition with Merkel’s party, at 28 percent support. What’s more, according to Bloomberg the AfD’s recent history in regional votes suggests it will perform better on election day than predicted in polls."
Sure enough, according to the first exit polls released moments ago, Merkel's CDU has come in third, in line with expectations, and more importantly, behind the AfD, which is the only party to see popular support in the elections as all other major parties have seen an exodus in popularity
- SPD 30.5 %, -5.1%
- AfD 21 %, +21%
- CDU 19 %, -4.0%
- Linke 12.5 %, -5.9%
- Grüne 5 %, -3.7%
- NPD 3.5 %, -2.5%
- FDP 3 %, 0.2%
The second exit poll does not show any notable change:
- SPD 30.4%
- AfD 21%
- CDU 19.2%
- Linke 12.6%
- Grüne 5%
- NPD 3.3%
- FDP 2.9%
The media Europhiles are once again disturbed, and quickly point out that Mecklenburg is Germany's poorest state, which is indeed the case.
What the apologists don't realize is that in a world in which the middle class is disappearing due one after another failed central bank policy, what happened in Germany's poorest state today will happen in most other places soon enough (and already did in the UK, the same place all the apologists said a vote for Brexit was unthinkable).
The good news, according to ARD, is that - for now - the grand SPD-CDU coalition in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania can continue, but the real news is that Merkel's CDU has been beaten by by an anti-immigrant party. As Bloomberg put it last week, "defeat in her home state by the AfD would prove a political embarrassment for Merkel, and likely reignite grumblings about her refugee policies among some in her bloc.
What makes the defeat even more bitter is Merkel's aggressive recent campaigning in her home state: she has campaigned hard to win back support, crisscrossing Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in recent weeks. Yet ironically, she’s adopted a law-and-order tone at rallies, calling for a larger police force and “more video surveillance of public spaces", precisely the things potential voters loathe the most. Just as inexplicably, she’s doubled-down on the question of refugees, refusing to step back from her “we can do this” slogan adopted last year as 1 million asylum seekers poured into the country. Her opponents have ridiculed the remarks as naïve.
It's only downhill from here: as reported before, Sunday's vote will mark the start of a tough month for the chancellor. It will be followed on Sept. 18 by a regional election in Berlin, where the CDU is trailing the SPD and has virtually no hope of winning power.
And now the fingerpointing begins.