Norway's Largest Bank Is Going Long VIX For The First Time: "We See Much More That Can Drag The Market Down"

Tyler Durden's picture

Add one more brick to the "wall of worry."

Days after reporting that the Norwegian government, pressured by the low oil price while forced to cover government expenses, has withdrawn money from the local sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, only for the first time in history (an amount that in H2 would be equivalent to 18% of total government spending)...

Norway Sovereign Wealth

... concerns about financial viability are starting to spread within the Scandinavian country, and as Bloomberg reports, as a result of "massive stimulus inflating stocks and bonds" the tactical allocation team at Norway’s largest bank, DNB, is going long vol for the first time. The DNB unit is hedging its mixed funds by keeping duration short, avoiding rate jump risk, and is "buying volatility index contracts for the first time", according to Torkild Varran, chief executive officer of DNB Asset Management, who oversees about 530 billion kroner ($64 billion).

 “It’s vulnerable,” Varran said in an interview at his office in Oslo. “We see much more that can drag the market down than we see positive surprises. We can’t see where they could come from.”

To be sure, it's still a relatively small position, as the fund holds less than one precent, or just 0.8% of its DNB Aktiv 80 fund in VIX index futures maturing in October 2016, as well as about 8 percent in cash however the admission that TINA is not the only option, and that there is an alternative (or TIAA), may surprise some - especially institutional - market watchers.

While hedging for an overall market decline, the DNB team is particularly negative on US utility, consumer staple and telecom stocks, sources of dividends that have gained as investors searched for steady cash flows. “If you look at some companies, there are many that have borrowed to pay dividends,” he said. “How long can you continue to do that? If you’re priced as a dividend stock and then begin to lower your dividend policy, then the effect on the stock price will be rather big.”

What Varran's team is effectively saying is that the rush into yielding products is over, and when the revulsion kicks in, many investors who blindly rushed into dividend products will be trampled; the result will be many years of dividends gone overnight as a result of price deprecitation.

So instead of dividend stocks, the largest Norwegian banks prefers energy and technology stocks and views emerging markets as the cheapest region for equities, even as it bets against the U.S. and Japan, according to Torje Gundersen, a PM in the asset allocation team.

“Emerging markets have taken a beating,” he said. “A lot of investors were overweight emerging markets for many years but they sold off gradually as the markets fell. Then you have a pretty good mix -- unpopular, fallen a lot, looks cheap. And the commodity prices that pulled them down have flattened out.” Still, considering BofA recently reported that there has been 9 straight weeks of inflows into EM stocks, we fail to see just how this particular trade is contrarian.

In any case, while the Norwegians may ultimately find EMs just as unsafe as dividend stock, at least the fund is starting to admit that the party is ending, noting that "with valuations stretched and earnings momentum weakening it’s becoming harder to find reasonable investments compared with a couple of years ago."

“It’s not yet like 1999 as far as valuation goes, but there are indications of a bubble,” Gundersen said. “Now we’ve emptied the six shooter in all areas - the rate is zero, a lot of QE, pricing is up and growth is the same - it’s more challenging now.”

While warnings of asset bubbles are nothing new, what is surprising is that in recent weeks they have come from central bankers themselves, with Fed member James Bullard warning one week ago that "we are on the high side of fairly valued, I could see the process getting away from us, maybe tech stocks, maybe others"  followed several days later Boston Fed's Eric Rosengren, until recently a raging dove, doubled down on bubble concerns saying that "should a large negative shock occur, firms and households would be exposed to greater losses through their holdings of riskier assets than they would be if they were not reaching for yield." He then explicitly warned that the CRE space is now a raging bubble in search of a pin prick.

 

Of course, we know that fighting central banks who create money out of thin air and the use it to buy bonds, and in the case of the BOJ and SNB (and in some cases facilitated by Citadel and the NY Fed) equities is folly, we are not quite sure what happens when central bankers start fighting central banks. We do know that Janet Yellen is in for a significant spike in turbulence in the coming months.

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Looney's picture

 

Let the Central Banks’ dick-VIX-measuring contest begin!   ;-)

Looney

jcaz's picture

Yep- the Fed can sell more VIX than they can possibly buy, so good luck with that, Norway....

espirit's picture

Even if DNB is correct and markets tank, who's going to pay out?

Might as well ask for it in Gold Bullion.

The Merovingian's picture

All of the foreign money pouring into RE here couldn't be jumping in at a worse time. The fleecing and pain that is coming in that market is going to be epic.

anarchitect's picture

You beat me to that comment.

max2205's picture

Markets don't go down silly.  

bob_bichen's picture
bob_bichen (not verified) max2205 Sep 4, 2016 12:16 PM

That's right, MAX!

Markets. Do. Not. Go. Down.**

 

**Some markets may be subject to transitory periods of inverse gains in equity valuations.

Mini-Me's picture

This is what happens when central banks replace markets.  Everything is mispriced.  The correction, when it comes, will astonish people.

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Are they THAT stupid? I'm long TVIX, but only because of youth and longevity of investment frame.  It's the Wild West right now, sure I can go broke and re-up, but a nation's investment fund?  This entire market is CB Futures fuckery, VIX included, sure it may be a good idea, but absolutely not fiduciarily reaponsible.  It's far too dangerous a mine field for a soveriegn fund, maybe just go inverse funds and call it a day?

 

Jane Sheppard's picture

I'm long skittle-shitting unicorns.

Dead Canary's picture

Mmmm.... Taste the rainbow.

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Sep 4, 2016 1:03 PM
Change from:

 

Norway's Largest Bank Is Going Long VIX For The First Time:

 

Change to:

 

Norway's Largest Bank Is Talking About Going Long VIX (to trap the long VIX suckers) For The First Time, because they went long VIX a long time ago and they need to dump their inventory now!!!

Yen Cross's picture

  Meh,,, let me know when they're 3x long inverse equity ETF's.  </sarc>

buzzsaw99's picture

meh. they probably buy ir swaps from jpm too.

there's a sucker born every minute.

Yen Cross's picture

  Hey Buzz, I hope you have a nice weekend. The weather is absolutely beautiful here.

   Those swaps will never get covered. lol  [ Did Germania get their gold yet?] 

  History repeats because the dolts that write it, make sure it does. 

The Real Tony's picture

They'll get murdered on their energy stocks and their short on the utilities is also the wrong bet as rates turn negative in America around the middle of next year.

jonjon831983's picture

and.............. it's gone.

 

Good job Norway. Decades of saving and using up natural resources and you blow it all away on decaying derivative contracts.

 

Unless it works, but keep doubling down until you make big money.

JohninMK's picture

As it may turn out, spending all our (UK) share of North Sea Oil as fast as we could may well turn out to have been the best thing to have done with it.

Much better than watch it disappear in a puff of a market crash.