How Reuters "Tweaked" Its Latest Poll (Again) To Show A Clinton Lead

Tyler Durden's picture

Reuters has taken some heat in recent months for "tweaking" their polling methodology seemingly every time the data reveals "inconvenient" results for Hillary (see our previous posts on the topic here and here).  But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling "tweak" is truly amazing.  Having run out of options for slyly "tweaking" questions and categories to sway respondents in their preferred direction, Reuters has apparnetly resorted to blatant poll tampering by altering their polling samples to include a disproportionate number of democrats.

In their latest poll, released just two days ago, Reuters found Hillary to have a 6 point lead in a head-to-head contest with Trump.  But, when you dig a little deeper you find that Reuters' polling sample included 44% democrats and only 33% republicans.  Which would be fine, of course, if it had any basis in reality.  But, as The Pew Research Center points out very clearly (see table below), registered democrats represent about 33% of the electorate while republicans are 29%...a modest 4 point gap versus the 11 point advantage in the Reuters sample.

Reuters/Ipsos

 

Of course, this is significant because, as any reasonable person would expect, democrats swing toward Hillary by an overwhelming margin of 84% and, vice-versa, 78% of republicans swing toward Trump. 

Now, using Reuters' data, Hillary supposedly has a 6-point lead over Trump.  However, if we alter the sample data to reflect what Pew says is the real distribution of democrats versus republicans (i.e. 33% vs. 29%, respectively) and apply the same support levels by party affiliation it results in an 8.5% swing toward Trump who would have a 2.5% lead....very inconvenient.

Reuters/Ipsos

 

And just to confirm, here is how The Pew Research Center says that the distribution of party affiliation has trended over time.  At least since 1992, democrats have never enjoyed an 11 point registration gap that Reuters decided to include in its poll.

Reuters/Ipsos

 

Finally, we also checked the polling data of the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll to make sure we weren't missing something.  And sure enough, their sample includes just a 5 point advantage for democrats...slightly larger than the 4 point gap measured by Pew but no where near the 11 point Reuters gap.

Polling Data

 

And that's how you rig some polling data...

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Mass_hysteria's picture

Reuters is the mafia nothing new.

Bloomberg is a gangster.

 

we are getting FUCKED by these evil demons.

 

Looney's picture

If it walks like a penguin, quacks like a penguin, looks like a penguin, it must be…

<<<   Hillary wearing a pantsuit

<<<   Penguin

Looney   ;-)

ghengis86's picture

Penguin; they don't fall down as much as she does, and they're walking on ice!

remain calm's picture

Very disconcerting. It just pretty much suggests that at the minimum he should have recused himself and assigned the investigation to another person and had that individual make the call. It is hard to conclude he is unbiased, assuming all this to be true. The old cliche/saying that there is something rotten in Denmark certainly applies to Washington.
When James Comey decided not to indict
Hillary Clinton, the whole American public was
shocked. Everyone expected him to charge Hillary.
However, now we now the real reason why
Comey didn’t charge Hillary.
His personal and professional
relationships — all undisclosed as he announced the Bureau would not prosecute
Clinton — reinforce bipartisan concerns that he may have politicized the
criminal probe.
These concerns focus on millions of
dollars that Comey accepted from a Clinton Foundation defense contractor,
Comey’s former membership on a Clinton Foundation corporate partner’s board, and
his surprising financial relationship with his brother Peter Comey, who works at
the law firm that does the Clinton Foundation’s taxes.
Comey earned $6 million in one year
alone from Lockheed Martin. Lockheed Martin became a Clinton Foundation donor
that very year.
According to records, Lockheed Martin
is also a member of the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt, which paid Bill
Clinton $250,000 to deliver a speech in 2010.
In 2010, Lockheed Martin won 17
approvals for private contracts from the Hillary Clinton State Department.
In 2013, Comey became a board member,
a director, and a Financial System Vulnerabilities Committee member of the
London bank HSBC Holdings
When our source called the Chinatown
offices of D.C. law firm DLA Piper and asked for “Peter Comey,” a receptionist
immediately put him through to Comey’s direct line. But Peter Comey is not
featured on the DLA Piper website.
Peter Comey serves as “Senior Director
of Real Estate Operations for the Americas” for DLA Piper. James Comey was not
questioned about his relationship with Peter Comey in his confirmation
hearing.
DLA Piper is the firm that performed
the independent audit of the Clinton Foundation in November during
Clinton-World’s first big push to put the email scandal behind them. DLA Piper’s
employees taken as a whole represent a major Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign donation bloc and Clinton
Foundation donation base.
DLA Piper ranks #5 on
Hillary Clinton’s all-time career Top Contributors list, just
ahead of Goldman Sachs.
And here is another thing: Peter Comey
has a mortgage on his house that is owned by his brother James Comey, the FBI
director.
Trickle-down
corruption.
When President Obama nominated Comey to become FBI director in 2013, Comey
promised the United States Senate that he would recuse himself on all cases
involving former employers.
He lied. He has in fact politicized
the FBI— that is supposed to support the Rule of Law.
The FBI’s investigation of
Hillary Clinton needs to be re-opened, Comey and Attorney
General Loretta Lynch should recuse themselves and Congress should demand the
appointment of a Special Prosecutor.
As you can see, Hillary is tightly connected to Comey. If you still didn’t know
why Hillary wasn’t indicted, now you know!

Duane Norman's picture

See the end of my recent article - I believe Trump could possibly be underpolling and mispricing the gambling odds. 

http://fmshooter.com/post-debate-election-odds-update/

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I think in this case Reuters' adjustment is justified. Although the number of republican registrations may be higher than their sample suggests, many republicans are disillusioned with their candidate this year, and are unlikely to vote at all. When you look at the number of registered democrats likely to vote for Hillary, versus the number of republicans likely to vote for Trump, you'd likely find a sample accurately represented by Reuters' poll.

Why We Need Family Audits

BaBaBouy's picture

PC MSM ~~~ Hellery Must Be Anointed, Eh Elected AT ANY COST ~~~

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

vince ?

 

The Trump train is leaving the station.......you thought it would backup......you were wrong.

gladih8r's picture

There must be a correlation between Diebolds voting machine software updates and pollsters "re-calculation" of the numbers they are "seeing".  The two need to be in sync come election time or else Diebold will look bad....

NotApplicable's picture

They have to rig the polls so that the rigged outcome can be sold as legit.

cheka's picture

defeating google's new AI tool for watching the ever so dangerous 'hate speech'....i.e. truth

on the internet negroes are now called google

duals are now called skype

 

TeamDepends's picture

SHOCKING: Hil used hand signals to trigger lapdog Holt during debate!!!! You progressives are pure filth, our contempt for you grows by the hour.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=14GvS9O0zhY

Creative_Destruct's picture

Lapdog hand signals and endless poll tweaks.

Pick the "reality" you want to fake.

The end result of a  "Progressive" (Socialist) Utopia justifies the means.

Million Dollar Bonehead's picture

Anyone who votes for Trump reveals himself a moron and a traitor to his country. Dear Leader Hillary will find out who you are, and you will all be sent to FEMA Rape Camp where you will be regularly sodomized by Harry Reed and his son Rory. All Hail Dear Leader Hillary! Long live the Deus Triumvirate! Hail Dagon!

FireBrander's picture

Independent (Lessor of Evils) REGISTERED Voters:

Hillary: 22%

Trump: 29%

That is all you need to know; Trump is winning somewhere in the 2% to 5% range.

TeamDepends's picture

No problem, brother. Shout it from the rooftops!

Creative_Destruct's picture

MD Bonehead: "you will all be sent to FEMA Rape Camp where you will be regularly sodomized by Harry Reed and his son Rory."

At least both of them no doubt have a tiny dick. Easy on the rectum.

Dolar in a vortex's picture

You're so funny sometimes and then other times not.

f_symbols's picture

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... http://tiny.cc/2jncfy

Lumberjack's picture
Climate Change Fraudsters Go To Jail

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/29/climate-change-fraudsters-goe-to-...

 

Professor, Wife Sentenced After Defrauding NASA

The duo told NASA that their startup company would develop a cutting-edge sensor used to track climate change. Instead, prosecutors alleged, they used the company to funnel money to themselves.

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — A university professor in Pennsylvania has been sentenced to a year and a day in prison on a conviction of defrauding NASA by letting graduate students and researchers do all the work on a $700,000 project.

U.S. District Court Judge Harvey Bartle III also ordered Yujie Ding on Wednesday to pay a fine of $3,000 and restitution of $72,000. His wife, Yuliya Zotova, was sentenced to three months in prison.

HedgeJunkie's picture

If it were possible to have an honest, un-diebold manipulated, election I imagine the shock effect of a Trump landslide would humiliate the media (if they had any sort of professional standards).

But we already know that none of that is true.

Clinton will win along the line of the media generated polling.

pods's picture

I'm surprised they actually polled anyone? I thought by this time they just toss out numbers to keep the people interested and not thinking about how the world is going down like Frazier.

pods

mkkby's picture

WTF is a LIKELY voter, anyways]?  Are these the gender confused 400 pound feminists hiding in their safe spaces?

Anyone not registered to vote by now, 5 weeks before the election, is DEFINITELY NOT a likely voter.

DeadFred's picture

We will know it's over when the sample is 100% democrat and she still can't beat him

GreatUncle's picture

Hi Lonnie how you doing ... amazing what one finds when one looks.

Lumberjack's picture

Linda Tripp steps up to the plate:

 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/09/29/linda-tripp-reopens-v...

 

Tripp possesses insider information on the scandals known as Travelgate, Filegate and Whitewater, and she personally witnessed the handling of documents from Vince Foster’s office the morning after the Deputy White House Counsel was found dead in an apparent suicide. Foster was heavily involved in defending the Clintons in the Travelgate, Filegate and Whitewater cases. Tripp was the last person known to have spoken to Foster before his death.

In an exclusive interview, Tripp reopened each of those scandals – Travelgate, Filegate, Whitewater and the issues surrounding Vince Foster’s death – and she used her unique vantage point to explain how the notorious cases foreshadowed many of the current Clinton controversies, from the Clinton Foundation to Hillary Clinton’s private email server troubles.

VZ58's picture

Of course you would find nothing inconvenient with pure, unadulterated statistical manipulation since it fits in your troll fantasy world of Democratic reality.

Nothing less would be expected from you. Remember you and the dead guy's vote all count!

f_symbols's picture

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... http://tiny.cc/477bfy

TrajanOptimus's picture

That is the DUMBEST fucking thing I have read all WEEK!

Jeffersonian Liberal's picture

What's the matter, MDB, Mommy not showing you enough attention lately?

Why don't you go back to Democrat Underground where you belong, you liberal, Democrat-worshipping asshole?

And for those of you who don't know, MDB is not being sarcastic. His writing is too weak to be true satire. After asking him several times, he fully admitted that it is not satire, that he actually believes this crap.

Looking forward to the day this troll is deleted from ZH.

Pity that such better posters had their accounts yanked and this attention-seeking liberal asshole is still here.

Fortunato's picture

Some crack heads, retards and illary troll are down voting the best analysis of FBI corruption of justice by Comey.

When will this stop?

November 8.

Lumberjack's picture

More weasel bleach bit?

 

FBI raids IBEW union hall, labor leader John Dougherty's home

http://www.phillyvoice.com/reports-fbi-raids-ibew-union-hall-johnny-docs...

shovelhead's picture

What does this have to do with Rueters skewing their polls?

Are you confused?

Baa baa's picture

People do bad things sometimes. Admit it and move on. That way, you can't be blackmailed or fool the voters into believng you are "Special" and own your office by birth. In fact, career politicians should be forced to live on an Elba Island or someplace, anyplace far from humanity until death. Maybe then career politicians would go away? Naah, greed wins.

froze25's picture

Pretty clear now that the Main Stream Media (NY Times, WSJ, WPO, CNN, MSNBC) are totally bias and cannot be counted on for actual reporting. Long live PePe, Long Live the Alt Right Media. Trump 2016

onewayticket2's picture

but their rigging is exactly how they have pulled off this scam.....people BELIEVE them and repeated enough, whitewashed enough, their narrative (which may be polar opposite of the truth) becomes reality over time.....

FireBrander's picture

If all of the "polls" and all of "experts" tell me my candidate is "winning"...and it's raining, or snowing, or my favorite shows are on Nov 8th after work....I'm probably not goint to vote...my candidate has it in the bag, so why bother leaving the house?

Ballin D's picture

The mistake you're making is assuming votes will be counted. They just need the polls to be close enough to make the results be believable

nibiru's picture

Guys MSM will not give you what you want because you have no control of them and they have zero responsibility to you. 
1. Create your own media. 
2. Preach critical thinking, question everything (especially authorities) 
3. Keep calm and keep educating yourself, how to navigate this political minefield, to get rich and be independent of all this bs.

Anything else is just playing a political game! Just like in Europe all SOROS funded media convinced people to open their arms and accept millions refugees. Death by thousand cuts indeed.
http://independenttrader.org/diy-how-to-destabilise-the-continent.html

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Did everyone see the results right after the debate using main stream media (MSM) constructed, non-biased polls?? Below is the list of results.

Seriously, Reuters is a SCARED group of despots with reprobate minds who know that there is about to be a NEW SHERIFF in town.

 

Time: Trump 55 Clinton 45

Fortune: Trump 53, Clinton 47

N.J.com (New Jersey): Trump 57.5, Clinton 37.78

CNBC: Trump 68, Clinton 32

WCPO Cincinnati: Trump 57, Clinton 37

Variety: Trump 58.12, Clinton 41.88

Slate: Trump 55.18, Clinton 44.82

WKRN Nashville: Trump 64.58, Clinton 35.42

Las Vegas Sun: Trump 82, Clinton 18

Fox5 San Diego: Trump 61.45, Clinton 33.69

San Diego Tribune: Trump 65, Clinton 35


TRUMP/PENCE 2016 by a LANDSLIDE!!!!
Hohum's picture

No, sorry.  Get out of your parents' basement.

Vageling's picture

Huh? We say penguin when we refer to those sand creatures wearing a garbage bag. Heavy bones you know so they move like one too. Guess life is hard being chained in the kitchen. 

Baa baa's picture

Whew, I thought you were speaking of Nuns.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

~"If it walks like a penguin, quacks like a penguin, looks like a penguin, it must be…"~

Dammit Looney, what'd a penguin ever do to you? Have you ever seen a penguin wear polyester? How about mauve? Any more references out of you connecting penguins and "that woman" and you'll hear from our lawyers!

Signed,

Defenders of Penguins League

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Remember Brexit?  Banks & Nationals bloated Bookie Odds to create a facade of Bremain support.  Reuters is comprimised, and really makes for awful toilet paper - so maybe its best use now is fire kindling.