Citi Is Getting A "Brexity Feeling": Asks "What If We Are All Wrong About The Election"

Tyler Durden's picture

While Citi remains confident that there is a 60% probability of a Clinton win...

... in the latest report by Citi's chief global political analyst, Tina Fordham, she flags the heightened risk of disruptions to the campaign and outcome in this unusual election, also known as "October Surprises."

As she notes, an "October Surprise" refers to an event created or timed to influence the outcome of a presidential election. Events that take place in October have greater potential to influence the election outcome, and given the low trust, high polarization and anti-establishment sentiment, plus influence of social media, this could be higher than usual.

Among the biggest potential surprises listed by Citi are further health scare, major scandal, terrorist attack, game-changing gaffe, or information warfare incident that affects the outcome. Another possible scenario: due to fragmentation in the race, no candidate gains the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win, taking the choice to the House of Representatives.

"Alternatively, disruptions cast doubt on the legitimacy of the final result. Could low levels of trust and high levels of polarization lead to EM-style political outcomes in a world where political risk is shifting to Advanced Economies?"

Fordham also notes the Key Risk as "Information warfare", asking if WikiLeaks and/or foreign interference may play a role?

"Wikileaks has indicated that they plan to release up to a million documents before US election. Allegations of Russian interference in the electoral process are also on the rise. Congressional Democrats have called on FBI to investigate Russian government interference with election. "The government... face[s] and unprecedented dilemma. [We] have seen mounting evidence of an active Russian influence operation targeting the election... [Russians] can sow disruption and instability up to, and on Election Day, undermining faith in the result and in democracy itself."

Citi says that there are a number of other possible black swan events such as health scare, scandal, terrorist attack, game changing gaffe or the election resulting in an electoral college tie or dispute.

Stepping away from the hypothetical, in terms of next practical steps, the biggest upcoming catalyst is of course this Sunday's second debate, seen by many as a "must win" for Trump.

But what if the debate doesn’t really matter, as Bloomberg asks?

What if it turns out, as many analysts suggest, that support for Trump’s candidacy can’t be measured by developments in traditional election events? Failure to grasp that, they warn, could lead markets into the kind of misstep and turmoil that the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union did.

As Fordham says, “this is an unusual juncture but we keep looking at it through the same kinds of lenses. What if it’s all wrong because society, technology, opinion polling methods, and everything else don’t capture marginalized voters in the way they might once have?”

"What if" indeed.

The reason for the rhetorical question is that according to Fordham, this presidential race feels more like an election in a developing nation where public distrust in government is high and conspiracy theories are rife. Markets seem unaware how much that low trust raises the risk of an anti-establishment vote. Fordham has focused on the Gallup World Poll on public health, which analyzes two decades’ worth of health records of Trump supporters. The numbers show a correlation between the increase in the number of people going through difficult times - as measured by suicide rates, depression, mental illness and drug addiction - and the rise in Trump’s popularity, Fordham said.

“This is the kind of thing that investors just don’t normally run into, but it provides another useful way to think about things because income inequality is necessary but not sufficient,” she said. “There is something more subtle going on about public expectations and exhaustion and a sense of corruption, elite abuse of power, and lack of control.”

* * *

Both Fordham and other analysts point out how off polling data has been in many recent contests, including Brexit and the Greek and Israeli elections, which is why they are looking for other measures of public sentiment. Some, such as analysts at Wells Fargo say they are paying closer attention to state poll numbers for Senate elections to determine whether they are moving in line with the presidential candidates’ gains or losses.

Alternatively, Fordham has focused on the Gallup World Poll on public health, which analyzes two decades’ worth of health records of Trump supporters. The numbers show a correlation between the increase in the number of people going through difficult times - as measured by suicide rates, depression, mental illness and drug addiction - and the rise in Trump’s popularity, Fordham said.

“This is the kind of thing that investors just don’t normally run into, but it provides another useful way to think about things because income inequality is necessary but not sufficient,” she said. “There is something more subtle going on about public expectations and exhaustion and a sense of corruption, elite abuse of power, and lack of control.”

While some, such as David Rothschild at Microsoft Research are not convinced that the surprise of Brexit is a model for what may happen in the U.S. election because Brexit was such an unusual vote whereas the U.S. election is a regularly scheduled event with a plethora of dense polling data that will prove to be more reliable, other disagree. David Woo at BofA disagrees, saying the markets are in for a rude awakening. And Fordham says some investors seem to agree.

“I’m getting this Brexit-y feeling and I know other investors are as well,” she said. “The thinking is: I didn’t expect Brexit, so I better assume Trump is going to win. That element of investor psychology is at play here.”

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Boris Badenov's picture

Tina? Fabricated person? Screw you. Where did you come from? Why did you let Citi put you out for sacrifice?

You are right, yet you should go get another job before 11/8

Boris Badenov's picture

There's no October Surprise, let's call it what it will be..

NOVEMBER SUPRISE!

pathosattrition's picture

American elections are beginning to resemble the ugly truth: the country is quickly becoming a third-world nation.

InjectTheVenom's picture

"what if we are all wrong ?" ....

Well, one thing I know for certain, is that The Monster Vote will emerge & it will NOT be wrong on November 8th.

 

TRUMP 2016.

knukles's picture

So what if it's "what's so wrong" is because the data are manipulated?
Nah

Couldn't happen in our   er      here         uh              ahem               I uh...           gotta go  

GreatUncle's picture

Knuckles the thing is opinion polls, celebrity hype, etc ...

Cannot counteract the concept of a reality an ordinary person eating shit.

It don't work ...

All the MSM have done fucking idiots is show themselves to be no more than a front man with the FBI to the lets all eat shit party because they tell us it tastes great ... so we like eating shit, even though it tastes like shit and we all know it is shit.

Reality is such a bitch to trick, go on stab someone it fucking hurts and they bleed no matter what the MSM may tell you.

eforce's picture

Hillary's campaign is sort of like 1944 for the Nazis, the Russian attack is coming, but where, and when?

lance-a-lot's picture
lance-a-lot (not verified) eforce Oct 6, 2016 6:22 PM

Russian attack? Don't know about that. But Israel is already preparing for the Next BIG War. http://wp.me/p4OZ4v-wZ

Ludwig Van's picture

 

This article strikes me as pure reverse-psychology propaganda, including the "accidental" repetition of the last few paragraphs re. the "kind of people" representing an unpredictable voting outcome in passing reference to "conspiracy minded" types.... And nearby they actually quote a guy named Rothschild.... The whole thing comes off as a snide putdown of anyone who would think about voting for Trump. Clever in a way, probably deliberately transparent, but decidedly out of touch with the parties and attitudes they're referencing. Supercilious in their "reasonableness," they strike the pose, a living demonstration of why they are "elite," and all others chattel.

This is the Hillary Party. She's the proxy.

What if the whole nation just ganged up and kicked her ass?

Um, yes, the smell of napalm in the morning.

 

Rearden-Steel's picture

Do you think anti-establishment types like being polled? Hell no. We hate the pollsters just as much as the establishment.

HedgeJunkie's picture

I love the pollsters.

I get called all the time.

Because I actually answer their questions.

Usually my answer isn't one that they have pre-scripted.

I tell them to write it in.

The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) knukles Oct 6, 2016 5:52 PM

Recent polls have been wrong because they haven't included the "Dead Vote."  Somehow they are going to have to go to cemetaries and poll the dead.  They are voting in more and more elections these days and they almost always vote Democrat.  It could be as easy as coming up with a simple percentage of the dead who are gong to vote in any given election.

"Dead Lives Matter"

 

Slomotrainwreck's picture

They ain't polling the jury-rigged computers, they're polling people who want Hitlery to win. If she loses, it will be obvious that there was election tampering and there will be a huge investigation and hand wringing will abound.

Although, it ain't gonna happen. She's a shoo-in. The votes have already been tabulated. Trump? Close but no cigar. The game is rigged. It's a big club and you ain't in it.

CJgipper's picture

Let's have a little hope, go vote, and wait and see before we batton down the hatches and prep for civil war.

Allow me to rephrase.  We prep now, but hold off on the dismay and whatever else until AFTER the election. 

HedgeJunkie's picture

Civil war comes later, first will be WW3 and those of us left can throw rocks at each other.

NAV's picture

Here is one more episode in the cheaters’ syndicate...


Excerpts from “Podiumgate”: How the Clintons Rigged the First Presidential Debate:

It began with the building of a special podium for Hillary Clinton: one that was smaller than the podium designated for Donald Trump… More importantly, the podium seems to have been built or adapted with some sort of electronic console or teleprompter.

…Prior to the debate, tape footage shows how a device meant to be installed into Hillary’s podium was smuggled in by the Clintons and their operatives. Also brought in was a stack of documents; perhaps the debate questions obtained in advance from someone inside….

Photos also lay waste to the lie that Lester Holt was not wired during the debate. He clearly was, and a technician even removed his jacket to install it. Hillary herself might also have been wired. To what, we do not know, but they were both wired.

During the debate, the footage shows Hillary Clinton’s podium lighting up with a computer screen, while Trump’s podium stays dark. Hillary’s hand appears to be pressing or toggling controls on the podium to scroll through her teleprompter screen. …

The analysis shows Hillary apparently giving signals to Lester Holt several times at key moments during the debate. Each time she scratched her nose or touched her face, Holt promptly interrupted, attacked and derailed Trump. ...

Creative_Destruct's picture

"She's a shoo-in.... The game is rigged. It's a big club and you ain't in it."

I don't know,could be, but right now I like what I'm feelin' .....all Brexit-y! oooooooh!

Moon Pie's picture

Pathos:

"Truth is like poetry....and nobody likes poetry." - Overheard in Washington DC bar

El Vaquero's picture

Intentional bias in sampling is an issue, which is going to throw the actual results off further than they would already be, and I don't trust even the honest pollsters to get it right this time around.  Figuring out who the likely voters are this election and properly sampling them is going to be very difficult.  I also suspect that a lot of people who say that they aren't going to vote for Trump are going to vote for Trump. 

CJgipper's picture

That's why I find the daily trackers more useful.   What's the exact vote percentage where?  Who knows.  But what's the trend???? The daily trackers are useful in that regard.  And no matter what the media throws, there's a ceiling for Hillary.  Any shift in the trackers keeps going toward trump.

Creative_Destruct's picture

"I also suspect that a lot of people who say that they aren't going to vote for Trump are going to vote for Trump."

Yep- not acceptable in mixed crowds or in front of pollsters to admit you're gonna throw-in with that big body-shaming meanie Trump.

doctor10's picture

Brexity? Brexit was 52-48. Ya'll ain't seen nuthin' yet

Hillary will have to send out Bill to concede for her

GreatUncle's picture

Pre the criminal lawmaker being wasted it was near 60-40% and for 6 months previous the BREXIT campaign had always been in front.

 

CJgipper's picture

I doubt Bill will survive this tantrum.  It might fall to Chelsea by inheritance.

Space Ghost's picture

i wonder how cucked Citi's polling methodology is

 

i bet these guys have been getting this brexeity feeling since the summer.

kliguy38's picture

What's this "We all shit"......I know and everyone on here knows who is leading and it aint the fat chick in the baby blue pant suit

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Based on the"NON-BIASED" polls right after the debates, the data is suggesting a landslide for TRUMP/PENCE in 2016. More importantly, the TRUMP/PENCE ticket is making an awful lot of allies in law enforcement and fire protection services. NRA is there as well. 

TRUMP/PENCE RALLIES ARE STANDING ROOM ONLY IN MOST CASES.

AMERICANS KNOW THEY ARE IN TROUBLE AND NEED LEADERS OF MORAL CHARACTER TO FIX THE BROKEN "SHIT". OUR ETHICS ARE A MESS!!! 

My prayer is that we are not too late!!

I will quote Thomas Jefferson on this one point simply because he was a smart person.

"I TREMBLE FOR MY NATION WHEN I KNOW THAT GOD IS JUST AND HIS JUSTICE CANNOT SLEEP FOREVER!!!"

 

the grateful unemployed's picture

makes you wonder if Jeb will help throw Florida in Trumps direction? nah. even when W won he lost by 6 million votes, and we should say right here and now that if Trump pulls off an electoral college trick and still loses that will be jury nullification, and all hell will break lose. just trying to remember how brother george stole america and drove into the ditch. okay if Trump wins fair and square, no hard feelings, but no backdoor job, not again

lurker since 2012's picture

Thier was a Uni Of Flordia examination of the hanging chad (because all voting evidence was kept) and it found that Bush (Bin Laden family friend ) did WIN.  Check out this of why the Iraq war happened?

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/10/06/the-joint-us-saudi-guilt-for-911/

Mass deflection on a epic scale.
neidermeyer's picture

The "hanging chad" problem has been around since at least the early 1970's ,, here's the history lesson for all the young-uns... Janet Reno was a Dade Cty AG ,, in 1972 she had 2 journalists arrested that uncovered DEMOCRAT vote fraud... They found tens of thousands of ballots that were pre-voted for the DEMOCRAT candidate in a warehouse... The hanging chads were because the fraudsters were "voting" 10 , 20 , 50 ballots at a time with a punch inserted in a drill press and the botton cards sometimes got out of alignment... How does that help? Easy ,, if you vote D you just punched an already punched hole... if you punched R then your ballot had 2 votes and was disqualified... That's what happened in 2000... the fraudsters accidentally voted some ballots Buchanan ,,, and many were mis-punched... The DEMOCRAT party controls the elections in south Florida and attempted to count ballots in their favor until they were stopped by the citizens.

 

There are also techniques for rigging the lever handle machines which were stored at an unsecured airport hanger in Opa Locka... you could shave the gears to engineer a shortfall for your opponent.

neidermeyer's picture

Your recolection of history is faulty ,, the race was much closer than 6M ,, millions of overseas mail-in ballots were never counted ,, military ballots (heavy pro-Bush) were dq'd by rat manipulation of the mail so they would miss key dates... and heavy repub mail in ballots in Calif were also never counted add to that all the usual PA/OH/MI/IL/FL rat vote fraud and it is likely Bush won the nationwide popular vote.

GoldenDonuts's picture

What do you mean IF?

gregga777's picture

The desperation of the Feral gangster government and the Feral gangster government's organs of state propaganda (mainstream media & entertainment oligopoly) is glaringly apparent by their ludicrous accusations of Russian interference.

The Russian Federation leaders are NOT hereditary inbred subnormal IQ elite morons (aka Intellectual Yet Idiot classes) that dominates the United States. The Russians are intelligent and wise enough to know that it would be suicidal with unpredictable outcome for them to try to influence the US elections.

The Iconoclast's picture

After Trump wins maybe the Democrats will try to annul the election, claiming Russian interference?  That ought to sit real well with the electorate.

Sledge750's picture
Oct 6, 2016 5:56 PM

To Tyler,

 

Delete my account.

 

I don't need the BS MDB keeps posting.

g speed's picture

I run on by the blog to the comments and if MDB has commented I skip the blog---if not, I read it---time to rethink your relationship with MDB and the damage it may do to ZH tyler. ----I know I'm not alone here--

 

UpTo11's picture

You guys ... sorry, people... need a "SAFE ZONE"?

Creative_Destruct's picture

Amen.  Fuck that MDB clown-shoe , let m' spew crap. This is the glorious opposite of a safespace, where everyone should fell free to say stupid shit and get called out for it. 1A Forever!!


Tall Tom's picture

 

 

It is always funny when socialists are masquerading. 

 

They will always expose themselves...sooner...or...later.

 

"WAH! I need my Safe Space. MDB make me FEEEEEEEL so uncomfortable. Oh noes."  I cannot believe that shit.

 

Good riddance to both of them. I hope they don't let the door hit 'em where the Good Lord split 'em on their way out.

 

Fuckin' SOCIALISTS.

css1971's picture

What If We Are All Wrong About The Election

Then... You cheat! of course. Duh.

gregga777's picture

In a very dangerous development reality may be about to intrude upon the hereditary inbred subnormal IQ elite morons (aka Intellectual Yet Idiot classes) carefully constructed reality exclusion zone. Their extremely fragile psyches may not be withstand the encounter with reality. The humane thing to do would be to hang them to put them out of their misery.

Hughing's picture

Trump might win if Hillary falls over again and her votes go to Stein. Otherwise, Hillary wins comfortably. She has to lose millions of votes in close states for Trump to win.

RealistDuJour's picture

How prescient... DC Leaks just dumped a boatload of Hillary Clinton State Department Insider emails.  This should be good.

Joeman34's picture

Um, was that map actually in a Citi report?  Nebraska looks like someone colored it in with magic markers.  Man, I know Citi is operating lean these days but, wow, poor graphic...

CHoward's picture

There is something more subtle going on about public expectations and exhaustion and a sense of corruption, elite abuse of power, and lack of control.”

 

You think?  You haven't seen anything yet.

We Are The Priests's picture

"Both Fordham and other analysts point out how off polling data has been in many recent contests"

I wonder if that's because polling is no longer an objective mechanism for measuring voter sentiment, but a propaganda device for the molding of consensus views of reality.

froze25's picture

Kinda like how the Fed had to admit they couldn't use the BLS employment numbers anymore because they were so unreliable.