Fed Whisperer Hilsenrath Kills November Rate Hike Hopes, Plays Down December Too

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite the imploring of Fed officials that November is a live meeting... just days ahead of the election - it's not (and never really was). As WSJ's fed whisperer Jon Hilsenrath confirms, today's jobs data ensures no fed rate hike in November (with December still the most likely scenario for Janet and her friends). However, Hilsenrath warns, even December is not a sure thing.

The Dollar is diving...



And this is why...

The subdued September jobs report ensures the Federal Reserve won’t be raising short-term interest rates at its November policy meeting, a week before the U.S. presidential election, and creates a new thread of uncertainty about its action in mid-December.


The report—marked by a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 5%—largely fit the narrative Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen laid out for the labor market after the central bank’s September policy meeting.


People are rejoining the labor force in search of work. Many of them are finding jobs, but not all. The number of employed people, as measured by the Labor Department’s survey of households, rose a robust 354,000 in September from the month before, while the number of unemployed rose 90,000. (A separate survey of business establishments showed employers added a modest 156,000 jobs last month.)


The rise in the number of unemployed created by the return of individuals searching for jobs is putting some upward pressure on the unemployment rate. It ticked up from 4.9% in August and has effectively stopped falling this year.


Ms. Yellen sees the return of workers to the job search process as a healthy sign. The labor-force participation rate had been falling for much of the expansion as discouraged individuals and aging Americans stopped searching for jobs. That has reversed. The labor-force participation rate was up a half percentage point in September from a year earlier to 62.9%, an apparent sign of optimism among prospective workers that jobs worth seeking are out there.


The growing pool of labor is also a sign the job market isn’t yet near overheating. This underscores Ms. Yellen’s plan to move slowly toward raising short-term interest rates.


“The economy has a little more room to run than might have been previously thought,” she said at her September press conference. “That’s good news.”


The Fed next meets Nov. 1-2, before the Nov. 8 presidential election. Given this “room to run,” confirmed by the latest jobs data, a rate increase at that November meeting is almost certainly off the table. A December rate increase is still the most likely scenario for the Fed, but it isn’t a sure thing. If the jobless rate keeps rising, Fed officials might decide to forestall rate increases until next year.


The central bank will have two more jobs reports to observe before it has to make a decision at its mid-December meeting. So there will be plenty of time for deciding.

And while Nov odds are tumbling...

December odds remain stable for now...

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NoDebt's picture

Hilsenrath, you beautiful bastard!


SMG's picture

If Trump wins, I would bet the Globalist controlled Fed raises 100 bps or more, and then blame the horrible collapse it causes on "economic isolationism".

The Fed is non political my a**.

NoDebt's picture

You're exactly right.  A Clinton win is the Fed's worst nightmare.  

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Why is a Clinton win their worst nightmare?  Wouldn't it just provide further opportunities to usurp national currencies?

Cursive's picture

Satire?  Because for realz.  Either The Donald wins and is assasinated (pick your patsy - the MSM is lining up any of the many "minorities" to fill the job) or Hillary dies in office.  It would be shocking if either one of these could complete a term.  We should start preparing for the next chess move.....

NoDebt's picture

"Hillary dies in office"


Boris Alatovkrap's picture

This is get very very boring and old… Boris is barely can force even slight hint of surprise expression when hear Fed is not raise rate. This is now, what, 6 or 7 of year of talk about raise rate but do nothing more than 25 basis point for entire time? Fat nephew on couch is move faster with more determination than that.

rejected's picture

Boris, It seems we are being force fed this BS. Last quarter I made 17 cents on a money market. Obviously the Fed and government want no savers. I can't imagine how clearer they could be. I have to laugh when many on this site talk of 'saving' for retirement. Sure, put your money on the stock market roulette wheel and give it a spin. Talk to the people in Venezuela about that. Their stocks reached astronomic highs this year.   They don't have a pot to shit in and worse, no toilet paper to wipe.

This entire conversation of rate hikes is pure bullshit.

spastic_colon's picture

spain seems to be enjoying their lack of gov't................

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

If Clinton wins she will not be predident long enough to see the first rate hike for 2 reason.  She will not allow it because her bakster friends will not allow.  Number 2:  Cough cough.

Déjà view's picture

Rate hike during upcoming holidays...Grinch That Stole Christmas? Ho Ho Ho...

Cursive's picture

Exactly!!!!!!!!!  This 1000x!  The Donald is a shoe in.

Seasmoke's picture

That's exactly why Trump has been making hints and comments about the Fed.

abyssinian's picture

who in their right mind still believe there will be any rate hikes for the next 10 years? seriously!  wtf is wrong with these retards? 

Tarzan's picture

The Watchers watch in vain, they do not see, that Rates will not rise, until America defaults, until Fiat dies!

Wulfkind's picture

Here's a tip. There will be NO rate hike until after the currency crisis.

The Fed knows for a fact that we are already in recession ( the next leg down of the Great Depression 2.0 ) and its excelerating.  There will be no hike.  There will be ZIRP and stock and bond buying by the end of 2017.

NoDebt's picture

New TV show:  'Pimp My Stocks', hosted by John Hilsenrath.

FreeShitter's picture

Sorry folks, but there just wont be any rate hike on this current ponzi. 

kliguy38's picture

They're in a Catch 22 and completely foched......MOAR Popcorn

onwisconsinbadger's picture

Data dependent ? How about Dow dependent. Next rate hike of 25 basis points will be at Dow 20000 and not before. mark this post.

Being Free's picture

Probability of a rate hike before:  0%

Probability of a rate hike after:   0%

Hohum's picture

Raise in November because I guarantee the next jobs report will be GREAT!

enough of this's picture

Overheard at the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting:

“And we have the unmitigated balls to pretend everything is unicorns and rainbows.  We have the gall to say we to intend to raise interest rates before the end of the year.  Who the hell are we kidding?  We know if we raise rates, it could crash the market in a heartbeat.  If it doesn’t crash the market, it will certainly crash the economy.  Then we will have to deal with the backlash and have to back down by lowering interest rates to zero once again, losing all credibility in the process, assuming we have any left.  Let's face it: we don’t know whether to shit or go blind.”
brada1013567's picture

Carol Burnett said the jobs report was solid and the meeting was live on CNBS this morning.


Tim Conway and Harvey Korman disented.

NoDebt's picture

She does look like Carol Burnett, doesn't she?  Here's the interview:


The title is hysterical.  "Rate hike chances rise despite jobs report letdown"


brada1013567's picture

She can't do a Tarzan yell.



katchum's picture

Can't these clowns just shut up?

TomGa's picture

The Fed is trapped, they have been, and they know it. Everyone knows it.  No one actually expects them to raise rates anytime soon. There is no surprise here.



LawsofPhysics's picture

Look at treasuries.  The foreign buyers are dissappearing.  The Fed is more than "trapped" now.  In fact they may have to expand their balance sheet again.  This will destroy what precious little credibility they had. We will become a single party state overnight.

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  Someone needs to silence Hilsenrath permenantly...

venturen's picture

I like the joke,...Hilsenrath, Yellen and Bernanke are riding in a plane and it crashes.... Happy Ending!

RadioFlyer's picture
RadioFlyer (not verified) venturen Oct 7, 2016 9:16 AM

I see how you 'pulled' that off...

venturen's picture

The Kabuki theater always ends the same!

sportofkings's picture

Like they were ever going to raise rates! lol

enough of this's picture


<---- End the Fed and Hilsenrath

<---- Keep the Fed and Hilsenrath



DosZap's picture

These clowns should just shut up, NO WAY they can raise rates and survive themselves.

Self suicide.

wmbz's picture

Any talk of a rate hike should be suspended. Not going to fucking happen.


cognitive dissident's picture

Charlie Brown would love to kick the football someday, but even he is not humoring Lucy any time soon, not in NOV, and not in DEC. He is staying home.

Who the fuck didn't know the fed is as impotent as a Ming Dynasty eunuch? I mean, besides the algobots... good grief. 

TabakLover's picture

I am sure the Fed was/is hoping hurricane Mathew turns out to be a bad bad boy.  Always good to have bad weather in your back pocket if you are Yellen.

CosmoJoe's picture

Its cute how people think the Fed may actually raise rates at some point.

Bill of Rights's picture

Arrest these fuckers for market manipulation.

the grateful unemployed's picture

the reasons for a hike are weak. why change anything with the stock market at new highs? the problem is inflation which is ticking up, my back of the napkin calc of real rates vs nominal is rising at 1.7% rate. this puts pressure on the quants, why doesnt the fed pay attention to inflation?

flemsnopes's picture

Dude! Just BTFD a few days before the November meeting and sell the run-up at 2:01 Eastern on Wednesday, Nov. 2nd. (990 milliseconds after the HFTs)

yogibear's picture

Doesn't take much to figure out that the Fed is trapped doing QE and lower rates until the dollar free-fall.

moneybots's picture

"Despite the imploring of Fed officials that November is a live meeting..."


A live meeting to announce no rate hike.

Steeley's picture

If the unemployment rate spiked to 10% Yellen would rejoice - "Look at all the disillusioned people now looking for jobs again!"


No news is bad news - it's all good.