First Post-Debate Poll Gives Hillary A Significant Lead... And A Familiar Problem Emerges

Tyler Durden's picture

On Tuesday afternoon, a joint NBC/WSJ poll revealed the first official polling results following Sunday's contentious debate. It found that in a 4 way race, Hillary Clinton held on to a 9 point lead over Donald Trump, with the support of 46% of likely voters, while Trump has 37%, Gary Johnson has 8% and Jill Stein has 2%.

The lead grew even bigger to 10 points in a head to head scenario, or 50% to 40%.

The commentary was familiar, and is largely a recap of the same poll conducted over the weekend just prior to the poll:

The new numbers indicate that, while Clinton still bests Trump by a significant margin, Trump's debate performance earned him a slight recovery in his overall level of support -- particularly from Republicans -- which appeared to be in freefall after Friday's release of a 2005 audiotape of Trump's sexually aggressive comments about touching and kissing women without their consent

Here is the background:

The new data incorporate interviews that were conducted after Sunday night's debate. Poll data released by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal on Monday, which only included interviews conducted before the debate, showed Clinton with a 11 point lead in a four-way contest and a 14-point lead in a head-to-head matchup.

That said, there was some modest pickup in Trump support coupled with a dip for Hillary. As NBC reported, "among only those respondents contacted after the debate, Clinton's lead shrank to a seven point advantage in both a four-way matchup and in a head-to-head race -- reflecting the same margin that Clinton showed in a mid-September NBC/WSJ poll. After Sunday's debate, Republicans also showed more support for Trump as their standard-bearer. Before the debate, 67 percent of Republicans said that GOP House and Senate candidates should back Trump, a share that has now increased to nearly three-quarters - 74 percent, including 83 percent of Republicans reached post-debate on Monday."

 "After a weekend pause, Republicans once again consolidated in support of Trump," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, whose firm Public Opinion Strategies conducted this survey along with Democratic pollster Peter Hart.

Still, hardly the result the Trump campaign was expecting.

However, just like in the most recent pre-debate NBC/WSJ poll, a familiar problem emerges.

Recall that in the last NBC/WSJ poll conducted over the weekend, the representation of those polled was notably skewed, leaning significantly to the left, with 43% Democrat and Democrat leaners, 36% Republican and Republican leaners, and 12% strictly Independents.

Well, a quick look at the just released NBC poll reveals precisely the same issue:

In yet another poll the distribution of the of those questioned leans substantially to the left, as follows:

  • Democrat and Democrat leaners 44%    
  • Republican and Republican leaners 37%    
  • Independents 12%

(polling details and methodology here)

For a candidate as polarizing as Trump, having a 7 point disadvantage off the bat purely as a result of the poll's construction, will certainly have an adverse impact.

As for the balance, we will highlight the same issues that The Last Refuge pointed out overnight, which go to the fundamental reason why NBC polling may be compromised.

First, a look at the polling organization, Hart Associates, Public Opinion Strategies



Hart Research Associates is headed up by Peter D Hart (founder), and Geoff Garin (President) – SEE HERE

A quick look at what role Geoff Garin, Heart Research Associate President, is currently occupying (link here):



As the highlighted section notes, Geoff Garin, the President of Hart Research and Associates”, is currently working as “a strategic adviser for Priorities USA in support of Hillary Clinton’s election“. 

A slight conflict of interest.

But wait, it gets better.

Let’s take a look at the recent financial connection between, Geoff
Garin, Hart Research Associates and Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA
Super-PAC. For that information we turn to FEC filings -HERE-.  This is what they show.



On Page #118 of the September 2016 (most recent) filing we find a payment for $178,500 (screen grab above)

On Page #92 of the same September 2016 (most recent) filing, we find another payment for $42,000 (screen grab below)



So to summarize:

  • $220,500.00 in the month of September alone paid by Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC to Hart Research Associates.
  • The President of Hart Research Associates, Geoff Garin, is working for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
  • NBC (S Burke) and The WSJ (Murdoch) contact Geoff Garin (Hart
    Research Associates) for both the pre and post-debate poll data they will use on the
    day following the debate.
  • Hart Research Associates provides a small national poll sample (900)
    result, with significantly skewed party internals, showing Hillary Clinton, once again, leading by a material +10
    points in a head to head matchup.

Finally, let's not forget that in the aftermath of the Trump Tape scandal, public attention has fallen on NBC itself as a prominent player involved in what may be the most scandalous leak in this presidential race yet as CNN reported yesterday. Oh yes, and then there was the whole John Harwood thing...

Which is why for those looking for an objective, unconflicted scientific poll, may be better suited looking elsewhere. We assume John Harwood will not be among them.

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HedgeAccordingly's picture

I don't even give a flying F who wins now. Just tired of the same headlines. F them both. And F the msm.

BetaGap's picture

Do not vote Trump. Vote against establishment!


Trump 2016

CheapBastard's picture


Hillary is so panicked by her major loss she has brought in the guy who discovered the interent: 

Clinton brings in Gore as closer on climate change


yuk, yuk, yuk.....

jefferson32's picture

The poll doesn't take into account the full repercussions of the debate yet. The Clinton rapes. The new incredible Podesta dumps. Or the fact that MSM now admits Hillary has seizure disorder.

fx's picture

this election is rigged on so many layers, some past, some present, some future.

1) eliminating Sanders via super-delegates and the DNC working only for rotten Clinton

2) secretly supporting the Donald against other Reps because they knew (or assume) they could 'kill' his campaign any time. for instance with certain 'tapes' that surely have been there for a long, long time.

3) they may have more stuff against the donald up their sleaves. and the entire msm media in the usa and in  europe is one giant pro-clinton campaign. I have never ever seen such a united media front in my lifetime - public, private print and onlien alike.

4)register illegals, felons, zombies to vote vor Hitlary

5) online polling and voting machines can easily be manipulated on election day, if need be

6) even if the donald were to win by a slight , slim margin, presidential electors may defect, especially, when a handful of them were sufficient to change the outcome

7) back-up plan: kill the donald before, at or shortly after inauguration. Of course, a lone assassin, preferably firing from three spots at the same time. and sure as hell coming from Russia

and these are not all the protective layers available. there are a couple more.

If voting could make a difference, they would ban it.

Still, let's provoke them to the hilt. Vote trump. Miracles happen, sometime.

Hitlary in the white house means world war III (nuclear) between now and 2024. choose wisely!

nibiru's picture

Democracy is decaying and they are subverting it aginst us - we have to either let them discredit themselves with their failures painfully teaching the lesson to every single person.


Or hack the system and take over, diminish the .gov outreach and stop those cycles of Orwellian state returning.

Hopefully, people's eyes may open after DB fails.


FatTony7915726's picture

9 point lead my ASS.  The MSM is playing us with deception hoping for a rank & file towards Hillary at the end.  Read my lips: FUCK YOU HILLARY CLINTON, YOU SHOULD BE HANGING ON A LAMPPOST FOR ALL TO SEE WHAT A TRAITOR LOOKS LIKE AFTER A HANGIN'

Paul Kersey's picture


Dude, even Bill can't bring himself to do that, and he's married to her.

MalteseFalcon's picture

This poll is bogus.

How do I know?

Gary Johnson, 8%.

Not in this universe or any parallel one.

SafelyGraze's picture

a lot of the switch-over support for HC from DT came from us and from our fan base, which continues to be outraged by DT's lewd trigger-comments

objectification of women is just plain wrong, and that is why we cannot support this candidate

2 live crew 'n' friends


soyungato's picture

Why did the Republic of Congo offered Bill Clinton $265000 for a speech ? Last I check, Congo is THE porest country in the world. Why did Bill ask if there will be trouble if he accept the invite instead of rejecting it outright ? Bill did the right thing because there was another generous donor who gave more to the Clinton foundation. Last we heard, Congo suffered economically to this donor.

FreezeThese's picture
FreezeThese (not verified) soyungato Oct 11, 2016 8:25 PM

Wait the guy who loves polls we're now trying to protect from the losing poll?

WordSmith2013's picture

The polling data is being skewed BIG TIME ... for one reason---election theft!


MSM Election Polls Completely Fraudulent, False Poll Data Will Be Used To Steal Election
Loftie's picture

George H.W. Bush - Potus - CIA
Bill Clinton - Potus - CIA
George W. Bush - Potus - CIA
Barack Obama - Potus - CIA
Hillary Clinton - CIA

Is Trump toast or what?

Manthong's picture

You left out LBJ... Carter and Reagan... not so sure.


“Clinton brings in Gore as closer” 

I was doing a little recreational sand-blasting of an old trailer hitch and some structural steel with some glass bead media earlier this evening prior to stick welding a few pieces and as I wiped a bit of perspiration from the respirator I thought to myself: “Gee, I could give a great cleansing and scrubbing  to Algore's chackra with this system”.  


roddcarlson's picture

Make sure the anode and cathode are properly connected across the ear lobes handles and make sure to lower the amperage so that the appropriate response is visibly observed for the longest duty cycle. Also you may want to try DC for the deepest energetic excitation and chakra depth. Don't forget there are 6 other Chakra modes. When done send him to Hare Krishna for further reabilitation.

PrayingMantis's picture



... Exclusive Video: “Son” Of Bill Clinton Speaks Out >>> 


... "Danney Williams, the son of Bill Clinton speaks out about his suffering over years of being ignored and intimidated by the Clintons."




jeff montanye's picture

excellent work, p.m.  

this story is dead with unmatched dna.  

if bill clinton refuses, it's true.

if bill refuses, danney williams joins paula jones, et. al., at the third debate.

where, i hope, trump pounds hillary about killing thousands and thousands of people and starting and losing three wars (libya, ukraine and syria).  

if you don't win guerrilla wars, you lose them. ask (hillary's friend and advisor) henry kissinger, who lost vietnam, with lots of help.


Son of Loki's picture

soyungato, when you refer to the Republic of Congo, do you mean Detroit, South Chicago or that African continent place?

fx's picture

your avatar is a sheep and for good reason. you will get slaughtered by Hitlary and so will your "fan base". You vote for your own butcher, sheeple. While you totally deserve what you will get from your chosen one (Killary), millions in the uS and around the world do deserve better. But keep grazing, dumbass, won't be for much longer.

deimosaffair's picture

The avatar is a sheep, anything else need sayin'  ?

Reichstag Fire Dept.'s picture

I'm a Libertarian and I can tell you for absolute certainty...Gary Johnson ain't a Libertarian.

If I was an American I wouldn't vote for him. And, me being the sworn enemy of Socialism/Fascism/Marxism/Leftism, I would naturally throw my vote to Trump. If Gary Johnson was a REAL Libertarian he would already be making those kinds of noises. At the very least Gary should be over the top anti Hillery...a second voice nailing her to the cross of the lies and crimes she is hiding.

The fact that he isn't should tell you something.

Tall Tom's picture





The fact that the Republican US Representatives are not crying out for Paul Ryan's resignation also tells you something, doesn't it?


Ah...The inconsistencies and hypocrisy reveal the underlying truth. You caught that with the Gary Johnson angle. You captured that quite well.

Tall Tom's picture




So we have an anonymous Paul Ryan supporter junking my comment?


It is inconsistent to support Paul Ryan who has called for Trump's withdrawal while supporting Donald Trump.


And then they believe that Trump will be able to work with Congress to get anything accomplished, WITHOUT REPUBLICAN PARTY SUPPORT if, by some slim miracle, that the Donald is The Chosen One? LMAO.


Even the Republican National Committee has withdrawn FINANCIAL SUPPORT from the Trump Campaign. Good luck with that one.

jeff montanye's picture

not to mention his vice presidential candidate william weld ex governor of massachussetts and notorious zionist.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) MalteseFalcon Oct 11, 2016 11:37 PM

The pollsters know who to call to get the results they want. I have never been called but I know a black guy who has been called 5 times!

roddcarlson's picture

Laughs on Gary Johnson 8%. I don't think they even gave Ron Paul those kind of numbers and we know he had quite a bit more support than Gary.

You're very sharp and observant.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) MalteseFalcon Oct 12, 2016 12:26 AM

That's how Arnold Schwarzenegger won the CA recall election.

They ran all these kook candidates like Gary Coleman who they diverted votes to.

All my conspiracy theories are being proved true with this election.

Tall Tom's picture





If Trump is so popular then do tell me why do Republican Representatives continue to support Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House?


They are your US Representatives and answerable to you, right? They represent you, the electorate, right? This is an election year after all and it is evident that they continue to support Paul Ryan. 


Aren't they fearful of losing your support, your vote?


(And you think that you have a choice. Tsk tsk tsk....)

Tall Tom's picture





Go ahead and junk it.


You can take out your outrage on me, who has no power, rather than your US Representative, who actually does have the power to change it; and; who also voted him to lead in the House of Representatives in the first place.


But it is far, far easier to junk my comment than it is to dial a phone number to your US Representative's office to voice your displeasure.



,,,but you really do not believe in your system, right?

Dakota Kid's picture

Jesus H. Christ, what is your source of news, CNN, ABC, MSNBC and the rest of Operation Mockingbird sources?

It's because they are all part of the "One World Socialist Totalitarian Dictatorship" plan.

You better wake up, our government has been almost completely taken over by these bastards.

Our President, CONgress and Supreme Court are all bogus. 

Tall Tom's picture





My source of news is Zerohedge. I enjoy Greg Hunter of USA Watchdog.


Yes, You are right. I cannot agree more. Our Government has been COMPLETELY taken over by these bastards. It saddens me to no end.


So I am pointing it out that it is a total waste of time to participate as the system is rigged and beyond all hope or repair. Pardon my satire.


Take care of yourself, your loved ones, and prepare for the disintegration. Best wishes and Godspeed.



Dakota Kid's picture

Thanks Tom.  Best to you and your loved ones too.

I believe that Trump's success is a product of people being fed up with the way our country is being systematically destroyed by the powers that be.

I know that the system is rigged, however, I will still vote for Trump.  Perhaps, if it is enough of a landslide for him, the rigging can be overcome.

This will probably be our last chance to preserve our republic and our way of life.

If not, God help us.

Tall Tom's picture





First and foremost God help us.


Playing in a rigged system is like playing in any Indian Casino...or...Vegas Street You may come out ahead but the overall odds are overwhelmingly against you if you do not know what games to play and when to play. I know very, very few actual winners (I can count them on one hand) and an overwhelming number of losers.


Your investment of time will serve you better elsewhere, in other preparatory and productive activities. (I took a six week vacation from ZH and got a lot done.)


I do not believe we stand any chance whatsoever, none at all. So may the Good Lord protect us from the storms headed our matter who is selected

jeff montanye's picture

trying to look on the bright side, certainly if trump is elected, maybe probably even if he is defeated, the national republican party personnel (dems too) are shown for all time to be the bankster and zionist lackeys that they are.  

no doubt about it.

and there will be repercussions.  i believe, either way, there will be primary challenges to such as lindsey graham and his fellow travellers.

MalteseFalcon's picture

As Speaker, Ryan has enormous power over individual congressmen e.g. committee assignments, media opportunity and campaign funding.

Not supporting Trump may hurt you. 

Crossing Ryan will kill you.

Four chan's picture

we are beyond the fucking jew media now and their polls.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Paul Kersey Oct 12, 2016 12:16 AM

"You know, the big Jewish contributors to the Democrats. Could we please investigate some of the cocksuckers? That's all." –-President Richard Nixon

“ Rev. Billy Graham openly voiced a belief that Jews control the American media, calling it a "stranglehold" during a 1972 conversation with President Richard Nixon.


"This stranglehold has got to be broken or the country's going down the drain," "You believe that?" Nixon says after the "stranglehold" comment. "Yes, sir," Graham says. "Oh, boy," replies Nixon. "So do I. I can't ever say that but I believe it."

I miss Nixon.

jeff montanye's picture

gives a whole other vibe to all the president's men and watergate, doesn't it?

Keyser's picture

All just more proof that the Dims intend on stealing the election in November and using these fake polls to justify the outcome... Either way, there will be civil unrest and claims of voter fraud if Trump or Clinton is elected... 

NoDebt's picture

Please remember that the translation programs work FOR the Matrix.

DO NOT listen to ANY polling.  This year most especially.

It is designed to CAUSE an opinion, not describe one.  If we've learned anything this year it's that the "media" is 100% fully on board and working with the Clinton campaign.  These polls are designed to crush the hopes of Trump supporters so they don't show up on 11/8.  And from what I can tell, it's working.  

Fuck the polls, fuck the media.  Vote your conscience and do so multiple times, if possible.  Hillary's supporters will.



Son of Loki's picture

I just got back from a coffee at Starbucks and my gf and I polled the 13 people there and 2 barristas making 15.

The barristas, one laid off energy engineer and one laid off accountant from an energy equipment supplier both support Trump.

The other 13 showed 2 for Hillary and 11 for Donald Trump.

I'm bad at maff but my poll therefore shows:

Donald Trump = 86.7%

Hillary Clinton = 13.3%

TuesdayBen's picture

That's interesting.  I spend a lot of time at Starbucks, and I'd expect Starbucks to be one of the places one would be most likely to encounter an inordinately high percentage of Hillary drones.

On  the other hand, during my two most recent visits to Starbucks here in the sticks I encountered::

1) an old guy explaining to his old pal that Obama's bio father was a guy named Frank Marshall Davis.  I couldn't believe it.

2) a guy overheard me watching Monday's Trump rally in PA, approached me, ended up letting me know that he thought Trump was the closest thing we'll ever see to an outsider having a shot at POTUS, and without an outsider the country is effed.

Rik Haines's picture

Starbucks don't take EBT. 

Son of Loki's picture

I was surprised also but more people are either 1) waking up to the Establishment in DC who are NOT working for them; and 2) this Starbuck does have a high proportion of energy related people who have been royally screwed by the present Establishment in DC and are desperate for their jobs back and a change to a business leader like Trump in DC, instead of the same old politicians who will do little to nothing to help the middle class in America.

That's the impression I got when I was there and is generally true these days since the truth is hitting these people at home in contrast  to the 24/7 BS media they hear/read.

SeattleBruce's picture

"These polls are designed to crush the hopes of Trump supporters so they don't show up on 11/8.  And from what I can tell, it's working."

Hold up No Debt, have you been watching the attendance at Trump rallies from sea to shining sea?

jeff montanye's picture

don't forget the associated press calling hillary clinton "nominated" via superdelegates on the eve of the california primary, discouraging sanders supporters the next day (not to mention all the roadblocks put up by the democratic party to subvert democracy, as is its wont).

just vote trump.  and talk him up over the next month.

this is good for any liberals who seem to need saving: