JPM Responds To Yellen's "Dovish" Speech: "We Continue To Expect The Next Hike In December"

Tyler Durden's picture

In an amusingly, and very symbolically, titled piece "Yellen steers left of the minutes", JPM's head of economic research Michael Feroli admits that while Yellen's overall tone was dovish, the biggest bank by market cap continues to expect a December rate hike.

Here's why, from JPM:

Yellen steers left of the minutes


Today's talk by Fed Chair Yellen did not directly address the near term policy outlook, but the overall tone of the talk was dovish. Even so, we continue to expect the next hike in December. The sense conveyed by the minutes suggests that a strong majority is emerging in favor of another step before year end.


Three themes in the talk tilted dovish. First, she listed a number of ways in which running a “high-pressure economy” could help the supply side, such as stimulating greater capex, R&D, and labor force participation. Second, she stressed the role of monetary policy in anchoring inflation expectations—a dovish theme in light of the generally low levels of most measures of this variable. Third, she stated that easy monetary policy in the US is beneficial to growth overseas, arguably a good thing in light of ongoing global growth risks to the domestic economy.


Some of these themes are contested. Most notably, the argument that monetary policy can foster supply side gains has received very little public support by others on the FOMC (and was disputed by some of the presenters at the conference at which Yellen spoke). A December move accompanied with a continued signal of a gradual pace in 2017 would likely, we believe, appease the majority of the Committee while still giving some space for Yellen's "high-pressure economy" thesis to be tested.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Raffie's picture

You can see the vomit flowing out of her mouth.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

When refer Yellen to dovish speech, is really make reference to stand under dove and cover by excrement of bird.

Rainman's picture

'high pressure ' excrement !

TBT or not TBT's picture

Yellen's message is just to keep the illusion that Obamanomics has been alright, so it vote Hillary.  The economy needs to officually crash before.she.has.taken office, because narrarative.  She can blame it on angry deplorables. 

DavidC's picture

Suffice to say, also, that if Trump wins there WILL be a rate hike. Then he can be blamed.


Mr. Bones's picture

First, she listed a number of ways in which running a “high-pressure economy” could help the supply side

Odd, Democrats have been telling me for decades that supply side economics don't work... And I've been saying 'Then why are we still doing it?' To which there is a predictable response, 'We aren't, because reasons.' So imagine my surprise when JPM uses that exact language.  How do we square this circle?

Raffie's picture

I am very hawkish about wanting to see someone giving her the beat down with a bat.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Speak of beat down, there is concern of outbreak and increase of wife beating and domesticated violence. Just other day, Boris is visit neighbor and is witness wife beating neighbor with large sauce pan.

Golden Showers's picture

That's not vomit. It's ichor, formaldehyde, and masticated baby batter.

That thing is a lich.

But don't worry. There is no such thing as money. Money does not exist. There is no spoon.

ejmoosa's picture

December of What year? 2017?



Raffie's picture

Let that bitch toss on a rate hike and watch the markets.

The market Hype Train has room for more sheeple then you think.,fl...

EVERYTHING IS FINE!!! Why would they lie?

major major major major's picture

They are talking about the rate hike of 2015... I'm pretty sure on this one.

buzzsaw99's picture

i checked the comments just to look for ^^this^^

kudos +1

SharkBit's picture

JPM part of the Clinton Crime Family.  Bollocks.  Rates can never go up.  Just buying time.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Troll harder JPM...

Paul John Smith's picture

We have such a brilliantly healthy economy ...

Nothing goes wrong from here.

gregga777's picture

ROTFLMAO (rolling on the floor laughing my a** off).

Does anyone really believe that Goldman Sachs Feral Reserve System will ever really raise interest rates? Why does anyone even write this drivel? How can anyone think that the Feral Reserve has any credibility?

They must believe that there are a lot of Charlie Brown's out there who really believe that Lucy is finally going to let him kick the football.

This line of propaganda is so old it's not even a bad joke anymore. It's just pathetic and it's an insult to the intelligence of anyone who is not one of the hereditary inbred subnormal IQ elite morons (aka Intellectual Yet Idiot classes).

nakki's picture

Well Goldman did say 4 rate hikes for 2016 in November of last year and most FED dot plots from june 2013 say 2%-2.5. June 2014 2%, March 2015 1.5-2%. 

Fuck, there are even 6 "geniuses" at the FED who thought way back in June of last year that we would end 2016 above 2% and next year above 3.5%.

Apparently they suck at their jobs, don't know how to do simple arithmetics (3.5% on 20 soon to be 25 trillion in debt is $700,000,000,000- 875,000,000,000 in interest a year) and are dumber than the average inbred moron.

Great gig if you can get it.

Mass_hysteria's picture
Mass_hysteria (not verified) Oct 14, 2016 2:49 PM

Stock market crash

War on the rise



you think this is a coincidence?


Think again, the satanic force is making it's move, and Trump is Geroge Washington reborn.

Stan Smith's picture

If they actually raise rates -- which is debatable at this point -- its hard to not envision the smallest rate "hike" ever.

Should we place bets on it?

0 Pt.

1/32 pt.

1/16 pt.

1/8 pt.

1/4 pt.

1/2 pt.

How come this is starting to feel like The Gong Show?

f.thomas's picture

1/64,   0.015625

1/128,   0.0078125

Rum Runner's picture

"The unexpected market correction may alter our position for a December rate hike" -  Yelllen Nov 10, 2016 

rpm77's picture

Looks and talks exactly like grandpa Munster and probably no smarter, just a Obama Clinton tool.

Seasmoke's picture

The USD higher and higher. Gold lower and lower. Anyone have enough of this daily bullshit yet ???

khakuda's picture

She wants to get Lael into Treasury so they can join forces to issue debt, monetize everything they can find and then pat each other on the back while they watch prices soar.  Then, maybe get Larry Summers and Ken Rogoff to dip into everyones bank account and start stealing money via negative rates should really instill confidence as the government takes control of everything and everybody.

As a start, Fed staff should be cut by 75%, considering they don't actually do anything but cause bubbles.  They don't even move rates anymore.

Trump is no saint, but watching the double standards throughout the election process and control of the media/FBI/state department/justice department by the liberal elite to brainwash everyone into voting for Hillary, the definition of a corrupt, self-dealing politician is beyond belief.  It's past time to start getting money out of the country.

larz's picture

The picture of Yellen gives me an idea for my jack o  lantern this year

Robert Trip's picture

Yellen testifying before the Senate Banking Committee is better than SNL in it's prime.

I can't stop laughing.

Goldbugger's picture

Hike in December . LOL i just fell off my toilet seat there was so much shit in that statement.

Robert Trip's picture

The people Yellen is talking to obviously don't have a financial clue and being as such wouldn't even consider listening to her any way.

The people that do have a clue know she is full of shit.

So, why bother?

UnKeynes's picture

Fed rate-raise in December?

Yeah, when Khazars have wings.


TomGa's picture

December 2014, 2015? 2016?? Lol! Yeah, sure...

Robert Trip's picture

Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, they have us all by the financial short hairs as we all just stood around and bytched while they accomplished it.

The end is drawing near for these Shylocks and their handlers.

Every 60 to 80 years history repeats for these scum.

Downtoolong's picture

A December hike would appear to be an overt admission that the timing right after the Presidential election was politicized. So maybe what JPM is really telling us is, “yea, we know that, and neither we nor the Fed are ashamed of it or give a shit if you know too. Suck it up and eff you if you can’t handle it.”




zagzigga's picture

These Federal reserve scumbags need to shut up. All talk from them and just a bunch of false claims.

messystateofaffairs's picture

Puhleeze, stop it. Usr the space to tell us about aliens instead.

yogibear's picture

"December of What year? 2017?"

Until the US dollar blows up.

JailBanksters's picture

And I expect to win Lotto !, twice, in a row, but it's just not going to happen is it.



Elco the Constitutionalist's picture
Elco the Constitutionalist (not verified) Oct 14, 2016 6:59 PM

They sound like fucking weather forecasters. It is as if they are not steering their own ship.

JailBanksters's picture

That's a point

The FED Channel, another useless channel on Cable that's part of the Basic Package and is FREE.


FocusPlease's picture

There are 20 trillion reasons why rates are not going up.

doc333's picture

IMHO NO rate hike of ANY magnitude (1 ½ or 2%) will happen now or EVER - The time when a meaningful hike (looooooong overdue) could have been done has long past and is in the rear view mirror. The event horizon approaches, but at impulse speed as long as the can keeps getting kicked. Hiking would bring us to the horizon at warp 7 speed and would collapse the system like light falling into a black hole – and neither the FED or anyone else would know what to do about that…. All that being said, we WILL get to the event sooner or later, so PREPARE.

mosfet's picture

Newsflash - JPM takes everything the Fed says at face value.

I often wondered whether (if Trump won) whether Janet would hike rates just to make it look like he was to blame for markets selling off.  But then I realized that Janet's more cold and calculating than vindictive.  She's more likley to cut rates to zero, just to burn thru what tiny amount of gunpowder they have left before being kicked out on her ass.  What's Trump gonna do about it - appoint someone who'll raise again, cause a market panic & be blamed for it?

She's gonna use the post election V-shaped market sell-off and instant recovey the same way Mark Carney used Brexit as cover for lowering rates even after UK markets had rebounded.  Neither Carney nor Janet will let a perfectly good crisis go to waste, so my call is that she lowers in December or (like Carney) promises to lower by the next meeting and keeps her word.  Can't wait - Bring on the hot currency wars.

joey stalin's picture

No need to waste taxpayer money disposing of this vermin in a concentration camp when the time comes.  My kitchen oven can easily accommodate it.