This Is How WaPo's Latest Poll Gave Hillary A 12 Point Advantage Over Trump

Tyler Durden's picture

Those waking up to read the news this morning will undoubtedly be "shocked" by the latest ABC / Washington Post goal seeking report (aka "poll") that shows Hillary opening up a 12-point lead with likely voters after the latest debate last Wednesday.  Ironically, this latest polling farce was "embargoed for release after 9 a.m." EST which will certainly make it a dominant topic of conversation on all the morning talk shows.

Of course, like many of the recent polls from the likes of Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, something curious emerges when you look just beneath the surface of the headline 12-point lead

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

As we've pointed out numerous times in the past, in response to Reuters' efforts to "tweak" their polls, per the The Pew Research Center, at least since 1992, democrats have never enjoyed a 9-point registration gap despite the folks at ABC and The Washington Post somehow convincing themselves it was a reasonable margin.

ABC Poll

 

Of course, despite the glaring bias in the sample pool, Hillary's obedient lap dog, John Harwood, was among the first to pump the results by tweeting out the following just two minutes after the embargo was lifted:

 

No one knows how to suck up to the Clinton campaign like John (#HarDwoodForHillary)...

 

This new poll comes just 9 days after a previous ABC / Washington Post poll which showed only a 4-point national lead for Clinton.  While ABC and WaPo claim the massive swing came as the result of Trump's "treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy" during the debate, it seems unlikely that anyone truly believes that Wednesday's debate caused an 8-point swing in voter preference.  Certainly not these people on CNN:

 

In any event, here is how ABC and WaPo have seen the polling data trend over time.  Ironically, they found absolutely no dip for Hillary after her 9/11 "medical episode", probably one of the biggest events of the election season so far, but were able to convince themselves that Wednesday's debate caused an 8 point swing.

ABC Poll

 

Meanwhile, with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily see how simple it is to "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another.  While the pollsters release the the split of the sample pool by political affiliation, they do not share the split by any of the following demographics which are just as important to determining the outcome of the poll.

ABC Poll

Just one more example of how to rig a poll and dominate a Sunday morning news cycle.

The full ABC / Washington Post Poll can be read here:

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remain calm's picture

I guess 65% of the electorate think a FELON should be Potus. Corrupt MSM & polls. Think about it people. One of these polls is not like the other. Which is reality?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWyCCJ6B2WE

Raffie's picture

The ONLY thing Hillery leads in is corruption.

Trump does not even show up on the chart in that area.

Hillery is the clear winner there.

Transformer's picture

 

The polls are rigged.

The most recent Investors Business Daily poll, showing Trump up by 2% is another rigged poll as they all are. The pollsters have been rigging their results by sampling many more Democrats than Republicans. Most people don't have the slightest idea how to figure statistics. Let me evaluate this for you.

They polled 767 people

282 Democrats

226 Republicans

259 independents

So, lets just make if fair. Let's assume the people voted their party. We'll increase the number of Republicans to 282. What does that do to the outcome? 46.5% for Trump and 38.0% for Clinton, which gives trump a lead of 8.5%

If you take the recent Arizona poll that had Clinton up by 5% and do the same...

This poll shows they polled 713 people,

413 Democrats

168 Republicans

132 Ind

So, let's increase the number of Republicans to 413 and see how it affects the result, with the same assumption.

When the sampling is made fair, Trump gets 51% and Clinton gets 29%, a lead for Trump of 22%. Isn't that more in line with what you would expect from Arizona, a decidedly red state?

The ABC poll that is the subject of this article, seems to be fraudulent right from the get go. First of all add up the percentages of groups sampled.

36% Democrat

27% Republicans

31% Independent

A total of 94%. Where's the other 6%? Are they aliens, or maybe Bob Creamer hired voters? From what we have seen with the other polls, I would assume the numbers were really

42% Democrats 367 samples

27% Republicans 236 samples

31% independent 271 samples

But of course, there's no way to know.With bad data, it is hard to begin to figure out what they did. One can only assume that they didn't want anyone to be able to figure out how they rigged it.

So, lets do the same adjustment and analysis on the corrected samples, above.

We end up with Trump at 44% and Clinton at 41%. This is much more likely than their bogus numbers.

 

 

ejmoosa's picture

ABC Headlines on 7 November 2016

"Even Trump Votes Clinton As She will Win 100% Of Vote"

Hype Alert's picture

The silencing of Trump supporters continues.

Twitter and Periscope shadowban Scott Adams.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152204980091/twitter-and-periscope-shadowba...

knukles's picture

A Harwood here and a Hilsenrath there and Pretty Soon You Got Real Propaganda

Hype Alert's picture

The MSM is peddling fiction as truth in ways that puts House of Cards to shame.

847328_3527's picture

Doesn't madder 'cause Donald called some woman fat:

 

745-Pound Woman Needs Gallbladder Surgery, Doctors Refuse

https://www.yahoo.com/news/745-pound-woman-needs-gallbladder-203012900.html

MissCellany's picture

"Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

Am I missing something? Those three numbers only add up to 94 percent. What happened to the other 6?

 

EDIT: Whoops, I see Transformer beat me to it.

Jim in MN's picture

They have to skew and bias these polls ever more in Her Fury's favor because LA Times, Rasmussen, IBD and others continue to show Trump winning.  This would eventually affect the RealClearPoliitcs poll average, and that, my friends, would be telling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_electi...

 

This is the number that cannot be allowed to go Trump's way.  They will lie, cheat, steal or kill if necessary to prevent it.

 

Bottom line on the 'actual statistics' and excuses used in Nasty Polls such as WaPo/ABC:  IF THE DEMOCRATS GET OBAMA'S TURNOUT THEY MIGHT WIN>>>>>>>      HAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHHAHHAHHA

Suck it fucktard liberals. 

WillyGroper's picture

holy shit folks...wait till you get a look at this document.

UN troops, Red Dawn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhEt8Gta5l4

Chris Dakota's picture

Can't find our team, its blank.Benenson Strategy Group

Founder involved in Obama campaign.

http://www.bsgco.com/about/team/leadership/joel-benenson

https://i1.sndcdn.com/artworks-000164431439-pmemds-t500x500.jpg

 

(((Joel Benenson))), founder and CEO of Benenson Strategy Group, is the only Democratic pollster in history to have played a leading role in three winning presidential campaigns — making him the "go-to guy for any politico wanting to take the public's temperature," according to GQ.

Joel has been the chief pollster and a senior strategist for President Barack Obama since the beginning of his 2008 campaign, and worked on President Bill Clinton’s polling team during the 1996 race.

Since founding the firm in 2000, Joel has served as a strategist and consultant to heads of state, domestic political leaders at all levels, Fortune 100 CEOs, and leaders of major advocacy and nonprofit institutions. His unique combination of communications expertise and astute analysis has led clients across sectors to win in the most challenging competitive situations.

777 3rd Avenue 33rd Floor New York, NY 10017 212.702.8777
Chris Dakota's picture

They are suggesting domestic terrorism to win an election.

far worse than vote rigging.

These are the people who created Al Qaeda, ISIS, ISIS etc. etc.

These people can not be allowed to live in our country!

WillyGroper's picture

i hope it's not the only dirt they have that will bring the hag down.

folks unawares of technocracy won't believe it.

it's gonna take the pedo exposure to wake up the dead.

JRobby's picture

I would look at the statistical validity post on ZH from ealier today.

Woodward was on TV today talking Down Hillary.  How can this be.......

Chris Dakota's picture

He looked scared to death after the catholic dinner.

BabaLooey's picture

Let these dicks keep pummeling their sheep with these stupid "polls"

IT'S GOING TO BACKFIRE.

Sheep will think Crapping Cankles has it "in the bag".

Oh, and by the way - FUCK YOU BEZOS

Bilderberg Member's picture

Washington Post = Jeff Bezos' diary

Jim in MN's picture

Dear Diary:

I wish I was a good at this as that dreamy Hermann Goering. 

Sigh. 

Maybe someday.

--Jeffiepuff

cheech_wizard's picture

I'm doing a kickstarter - "One bullet for Bezo's Brainbox"... Winner gets all the money.

Standard Disclaimer: On the bright side, it saves me from having to get my hands dirty, as well as I don't have to waste a bullet on him.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

LATEST POLL NUMBERS FROM FRONTPAGE PATRIOT ... ENJOY!!

(As a side note, I can come up with 9 other sites that show similar results!! NOTE THE SAMPLE SIZE:  Thousands, not Hundreds)

"HILLARY'S NUMBERS ARE SO BAD, THE ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS IN EXTREME DENIAL!!!!!!"

 

October 23, 2016 

1) Which candidate do you support in the general election?

Donald Trump 67812 - 95.62%

Hillary Clinton 1950 - 2.75%

Gary Johnson 1156 - 1.63%

 

2) Do you think Donald Trump was the best choice to receive the Republican nomination?

Yes 56130 - 79.17%

No 14764 - 20.83%

 

3) If you could select anyone to be the Republican nominee for President who would it be?

Donald Trump 48581 - 69.75%

Jeb Bush 616 - 0.88%

Ben Carson 4207 - 6.04%

Chris Christie 360 - 0.52%

Ted Cruz 5782 - 8.3%

Carly Fiorina 657 - 0.94%

Lindsey Graham 82 - 0.12%

Bobby Jindal 174 - 0.25%

John Kasich 2036 - 2.92%

Rand Paul 902 - 1.29%

Rick Perry 450 - 0.65%

Rick Santorum 219 - 0.31%

Scott Walker 923 - 1.33%

Mike Huckabee 1603 - 2.3%

Marco Rubio 1180 - 1.69%

Jim Gilmore 33 - 0.05%

Other 1849 - 2.65%

Christopher Kringle's picture

Good way to stick it to Bezos is to boycott Amazon.  If we can get 10 million or more users and Prime subscribers to boycott Amazon, that will send a message that these Corporate ducks should keep their noses out of politics.  Prime subscribers should ask for a refund of their prime subscriptions.  Their stock price will plummet, especially if we get the effort publicized.  Could hurt him in the billions and bring his treason to its knees.

dmaan's picture

yah, just get 10m people to boycott amazon. Peice of cake!! what a moron.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

You want a poll you can actually see? Look at how many people turn out for a Trump rally versus those who turn out for a Hillary rally. That alone will tell you who is going to win. If they will come out to a rally, they will show up to vote. And no amount of corporate leftist media polling is going to change that, save by voter fraud.

Not My Real Name's picture

Yes ... and as I mentioned yesterday, go check out Hillary's Facebook page. It is dominated -- utterly dominated -- by pro-Trump supporters calling the witch out on her corruption. 

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

I am not on FB for probably the same reasons you are "Not My Real Name". Theosebes is not yet on FB either, though I anticipate that may change in the future. Or not. That said, I will take your word for what is happening to HRC's FB account. It just goes on to prove my point. I think we are about to see the biggest ever landslide in American politics for a contested election. Thanks for sharing the news about what is happening on FB!

Hype Alert's picture

Any idea how many times I said to myself "voter fraud" before I got to your last sentence?  All this propaganda is prep for that, except for the rally turnout, which they don't cover.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

I try to give the American voter more credit than I probably should. That said, I also believe that the days you could keep them in the dark and feed them the party-line bullshit is doomed as well. The internet is our Pandora's Box, and there is no shutting the lid anymore.

Voter fraud works to turn close elections, but if it were to be blatant then we will become Venezuela, with the current administration refusing the will of the people. The difference there will be that Venezuela's populace is not particularly well-armed. Even if current TPTB were to be so stupid as to assassinate Trump before the election, the people would then overwhelmingly elect Pence.

What makes me absolutely so certain as to this is something I saw yesterday. Trump is carrying the "gangsta" vote. Even the brothers get that we need something more than what we've had for the last 8 years.

Chris Dakota's picture

look at the bumper stickers too.

Its why they try and hurt your car with a Trump because you are proof of his real support, that they don't control.

El Oregonian's picture

The sickly dems make voting a cheap, dirty, and corrupt exercise in that is supposed to be a hallowed and honored exercise, hard fought, and 1000's of barrels of blood spilled to ensure liberty and freedom. Only to see these miscreants criminally abuse these sacred rights. DOWN WITH TYRANNY! DOWN WITH GLOBALIST!

Uzda Farce's picture

The president of Disney/ABC, Benjamin Sherwood, is a member of the Rockefeller/CFR along with Diane Sawyer, George Stephanopolus, Barbara Walters, and Juju Chang. Also Bill Clinton, Janet Yellen, Lloyd Blankfein and George Soros. See member lists at cfr dot org.

The Washington Post has been associated with the CFR ever since it was purchased by Fed chairman and CFR member Eugene Meyer in 1933. WaPo now owns "Foreign Policy" magazine, similar to the CFR's "Foreign Affairs".

sushi's picture

The WaPo is presently owned by Bezos of Amazon.com.

Amazon operates across the nation but pays no taxes as it has few bricks and mortar establishments. Amazon.com therefore has a significant competitive advantage over local establishments operating in the same market for goods and services.

 

Trump in his Gettysburg Address stated that he would level the playing field and introduce legislation taxing Amazon.com on the same basis as any other retail establishment.

 

This is an excellent reason for the Bezos owned WaPo to do all it can to elect the Demon Woman of Benghazi.

 

Kidbuck's picture

Trump, who has had a long running feud with Bezos, has poked him in the eye, and how. It's been well known for years that Amazon has such thin margins, that most of its pricing advantages dissapear if sales tax is added.

This is Trump at his best, hitting an enemy and a Hillary supporter where it hurts. No Republican in my lifetime, and I lived under Eisenhower, has had the balls to do anything like this.

Leaving aside the fact that it is a tax increase unworthy of a Conservative, it was still a genius announcement on a par with jailing Hillary which he also announced yesterday.

I don't think Trump would announce this now unless he was confident of a win.

erkme73's picture

The primary reason for these polls being this skewed is so that when the voting is counted, and the numbers rigged, it'll be a "see, the polls were right" moment.  The ONLY reason the Brexit vote won despite last miniute polls showing a 10-point defecit going into the election was because it was done via PAPER BALLOT.

Kidbuck's picture

Why is it that all the network reporters and all these newspaper reporters act exactly as if they enjoy getting ass fucked by Muslims?

scsherman's picture

That 6% is people that have yet to illegally cross the border for the election. You can't exactly poll them while they are still in Mexico, at least not yet...

Miskondukt's picture

ZH, you guys should start adding snippets like this to your articles or a pinned running poll. I am trying to push a lot of main-stream-media-dependent people to this site noting to not skip the comments neither. Anyways, this kind of dumb-proof example may slap some stupid sheep outta their slumber.

Elco the Constitutionalist's picture

I always wonder who that ONE guy is that downvotes a well argued/informative post.

dmaan's picture

#1:  The winner of the polls does not win the election, the winner of the election does.  Pollsters have a economic incentive to get the polling right, or be ignored the next election -- ie, Rassmussen in 2012 -- even convinced Romney that he was going to win. Now Rassmussen is ignored by everyone except you right wing clowns.

 

#2: You simpletons seem to think that ther are no adjustments made by polsters to adjust for sample problems.  The sample problem is adjusted for in amany ways, including mot importantly setting the margin of error. A poll with a troubling sample will have a bigger margin of error and the pollster will generally adjust for the inherent bias -- the better the pollster the better the adjustment.

 

#3: Hillariously, you simpletons assume that the only right poll is one that somehow comes up with some perfect distribution of Repubs, Dems and independants.  Of course that would take a long time to create - you just keep calling until you hopefully get the right mix?? or do you just stop asking people becasue they say they are a dem???

Read all about it Forest:

http://thefederalist.com/2016/06/24/no-the-polls-arent-biased-clinton-re...

 

$4 Given Mr. Trumps pentiant for insultng women,it is pretty clear that even Republican women are not voting for him -- so the simple suggesting that we "assume" that Repubs will vote for Repubs is about a dum a suggestion as one could suggest -- the whole point of polling is to understand if there is something other going on than people voting party line, otherwise you would only poll the indepenedents, and a bunch of right wong retard woould calim to be independent in order to skew the numbers.

 

Hopefully you will enjoy your temporary circle jerk of pleaseure associated with the your certainty that the polls ar biased.  I beleive that that is possibly the last time Mitt was able to truely enjoy life without pleasuring himself.

 

 

 

Sanity Bear's picture

I saw another poll where a massive chunk of Democrats that overweighted the sample badly were simply reclassified as independents

DrBrown's picture

Sorry but the math does not work out. For instance you say for the IBD poll increase republicans to 282. This results in Dems 282, Reps 282 and Ind 259. Total 823. Percentages are Dems 34, reps 34 and ind 31. There is no way to obtain the numbers you present.Unless you are using some kind of fix point math to redistribute the numbers.

Nemontel's picture

You will never see the propaganda cease. Leftoids are desperate to end electoral politics in America by electing Hillary and legalizing 30-40 million illegals. That would be the end of our nation. http://www.truthjustice.net/politics/america-first-revisited/

Matteo S.'s picture

Unfortunately, you are right.

I am sincerely sorry for your country.

Dormouse's picture

They have been setting up and maintaining this illusion as a pretext to void the election when the witch loses in a landslide.

AU5K's picture

HRC - first President ever that needs to be pardoned BEFORE she takes office???

AU5K's picture

HRC - first President ever that needs to be pardoned BEFORE she takes office???

stantheman's picture

Can;t believe you guys at Zerohedge, still arguing about party affiliation in polling and statisical probabilties.

The fix is in. They don't care about all this anymore.

IMO These polls are being rigged not for voter suppression yada yada yads.

Now that Trump is calling out possible Rigging they need to create out of thin air a MASSIVE landslide for Clinton. 

You are seeing that in progress. 

And with the GOP hand in glove the MASSIVE landslide will be played out in Texax, Georgia etc.

 

 

zeronetwork's picture

It is time for Trump to give a call to all disgruntled Democrats to give him a vote to get rid of scum from their Democrat party.