Another Black Swan Hits The US Presidential Election

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

By now, everyone on planet earth has heard about the bombshell news just announced by the FBI that it was re-opening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server. Here’s the text of FBI head James Comey’s letter to Congressional leaders.

screen-shot-2016-10-28-at-1-03-50-pm

Obviously, lots of people are out there pontificating on what, if anything, this means. As such, I’m going to add my two cents to the conversation.

I’ve prided myself on unemotionally calling this election how I see it the whole time, because I’m neither a Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump supporter. Being free of the tremendous baggage that comes with cheerleading a particular candidate in this contentious election, I had consistently predicted a Trump victory until the Access Hollywood tape emerged. At that point I penned a thought-piece titled, Donald Trump is in Trouble – Part 2, in which I changed my forecast to a Hillary Clinton victory.

Here’s some of what I wrote:

After watching yesterday’s audio and reading through the Wikileaks revelations, my prediction has changed for the first time this election. All things equal from here on out (meaning no additional huge revelations against Hillary), I think Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump. I don’t think it’s going to be a landslide, but I think she’s probably going to win. The audio was very harmful for Donald Trump, and now I’m going to explain why.

 

First of all, if you want to accurately forecast the outcome of this election you need to get into the minds of the masses. Just like trading financial markets, what you think is right doesn’t matter. What matters is what everyone else collectively thinks, and whether or not they’re going to get off their asses and vote. A big part of why I thought Trump would win related to the fact that I believe many people were simply looking for an excuse to vote for him. Justified disgust with the status quo in general, and Hillary Clinton in particular, pushed millions of Americans into the camp of being willing to take a gamble on Trump despite disliking him personally and disagreeing with him on many issues. I felt strongly that there were millions upon millions of Americans you could place into this category — people who were “flirting with the idea of voting Trump.” I believe a significant amount of these people will not vote for him as a result of the audio. Will it be the majority of them? Probably not, but it will be a material number and arguably enough to swing the election. No, I don’t think these voters will shift to Hillary, and no, I don’t think committed Trump voters will change their minds. However, I do think enough of these willing to be convinced, leaning-Trump types will now stay home or vote third party. It’s these voters who I expected to swing the election in Trump’s favor, and they are now unreliable.

 

Does Trump’s vulgarity excuse the incalculable crimes of Hillary Clinton and her husband, making them preferable in this election? No it doesn’t, but that’s not the point of this article. Most voters are too superficial, too busy trying to survive and too uninformed to weigh all the very important issues rationally. As an example, think about how most conversations are going to go down this weekend. Let’s say you’re out with a bunch of friends for drinks tonight. Someone says, “so have you seen the Trump audio?” If someone in the group hasn’t, someone will pull out their phone and it’ll be watched in 3 minutes. What if someone then says, “yeah, but have you seen the leaked Hillary emails?” What will your response be? You can’t adequately explain the importance of that to your friends in 3 minutes. Instead, you’ll have to send them a lengthy article that they’ll never read. So by the end of this weekend, pretty much everyone in America will have heard the Trump audio, while maybe 10% will take the time to analyze what came out of Wikileaks. There goes your election.

Understanding the craziness of the election, I finished the piece with the following.

Despite all of that, I still can’t say with certainty that Hillary will win. However, I do think the landscape has changed enough, that for the first time this entire election season, I am no longer confident of a Trump victory. Then again, I was absolutely convinced that Hillary was unelectable after she collapsed on 9/11 and mislead everyone about her health, and I was wrong about that. That’s how completely crazy this election is, and there’s still a month to go. Anything can happen, particularly with the debate coming up this Sunday. So while it’s certainly not out of the question, there will have to be some very material events over the next month to put Trump back in the driver’s seat.

While the Wikileaks emails have been an important factor in keeping this race close, I didn’t think they were sufficient to alter my forecast of a Clinton victory. I think the reopening of the FBI investigation is enough of a black swan to materially change the course of this race.

Clinton supporters will read this and think I’m insane. They will think this because they are anticipating a landslide victory for Hillary. I never expected a landslide, so I think this news tips the election into a total tossup situation. My reasoning for the change is the same that led me to switch my forecast to Hillary after the Access Hollywood video was released. The primary reason I initially thought Trump would win related to the fact I believed enough people would be willing to vote for a person they don’t really like in order to blow up the status quo. I felt that the video recording of Trump’s vulgar commentary was enough to put those people into the absentee or third party column, despite millions of Americans looking for an excuse to vote for Trump due to the well understood awfulness of Hillary. This has changed, and voters now have the excuse to vote Trump they needed.

That reason is simple. The problems with Hilary Clinton will never go away. They will always resurface or new problems will emerge, and it has nothing to do with a “vast rightwing conspiracy.” It has to do with her. It has to do with the fact that her and her husband are career crooks, warmongers, and shameless looters of the American public. This re-opening of the FBI investigation just hammers all of that home for everyone. We know what 4 years of Hillary will look like. It’ll be Obama cronyism on steroids, plus endless investigations with a side of World War 3. I don’t think people want that, and so more Americans than the pundits realize will take a gamble on Trump.

As a caveat, the above forecast assumes this new FBI investigation is not closed before November 8th. If it is, I think she’ll win. If not, I think Trump has even odds to win, if not better.

Of course, with 11 days left in this crazy election, many more black swans could emerge. Stay tuned.

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CaptainObvious's picture

Even Krieger is trying to cover his ass. 

I just can't stop laughing today. ; )

The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) CaptainObvious Oct 28, 2016 9:48 PM

Ii hope Comey burns the witch here on earth before she burns in Hell.

 

y3maxx's picture

--If Clinton wins I'm moving to Canada.

2/

If Clinton is indicted....Obama will call off the election

and continue as POTUS.

The Duke of New York A No.1's picture

15% housing tax on foriengers in Vancouver.

CaptainObvious's picture

So?  Just move to Alberta, and when the economy crashes, you can simply mail back the keys.

FireBrander's picture

 The New Emails:

>appear to be pertinent to the investigation" F.B.I. director, James B. Comey.

 

APPEAR!

Read that....hear it?

APPEAR!

 

~~~~~~~~~~~

 Comey: We are "taking steps to “determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation.” 

 

WTF? A letter to Congress....while he's "determining" if the initial "appearance" of the emails is of any value?


...oops, on Monday, false alarm...Hillary did nothing wrong...back to your regular programming.

 

I'm really suppose to believe that Comey, who THREW AWAY HIS CREDIBILITY for Hillary, is now going to be an upstanding guy, a straight shooter, and do the right thing by presecuting Hillary for the CRIMES HE KNEW MONTHS AGO she commited?

 

I'll believe it when I FUCKING SEE IT!

philipat's picture

It makes no difference, Obuttboy will pardon her anyway. And as a psycopath, therefore with no shame because it's all about "me", she will just continue as normal.

MANvsMACHINE's picture

First off, no way they pull this without Obama in the know. My guess is that they saw that Trump is going to win and they can't allow that. She's going to have to be put on the shelf and the election postponed so they can put someone else in on the D ticket who they believe can beat Trump.

yippee kiyay's picture
yippee kiyay (not verified) MANvsMACHINE Oct 28, 2016 10:40 PM

I think they'll keep her and start World War 3 with Russia to hide all her problems. https://goo.gl/nKJndT

letsit's picture

That biyatch.

philipat's picture

Hey, current names Yippee Kiyay, letsit and lonnng) you are talking to yourself again. Thay say that is the first sign of madness, but in your case it's probably the second sign..

letsit's picture
letsit (not verified) philipat Oct 28, 2016 11:14 PM

Hey, philipat/erkme73/max powers/red1chief/BarkingCat/PavlovPup -- the dudette with multiple personalities. Wassup?

AVmaster's picture

Anyone notice his signature kinda looks like "James Blomey"?

 

^.^

Bendromeda Strain's picture

Sock Puppet Goes to the Incinerator was one of my favorite tales growing up.

malek's picture

LOL, you really believe "if you cannot refute the message , attack the messenger" will work HERE?

philipat's picture

Hey yippee kiyay (Soon to be banned and will then use the next new names letsit and lonnng) , previously:

mofio
santafe
Aristotle of Greece
Gargoyle
bleu
oops

lance-a-lot
Loftie
toro
.

You are a serial spammer and a serial pain in the ass. Might I politely suggest that you go fuck yourself? And get a life.

Your MO, always the same, is to post a provocative comment which SEEMS to be relevant but you have no interest in joining the discussion (and NEVER do) and your sole objective is to mislead readers into clicking on your falsified links to your BS site. That wastes everyones time is blatant SPAMMING.

Apologies to regular ZHers because I do understand these posts of mine can be irritating also, but I am donating my time to expose this shithead for the benefit of the ZH community. Please just skip over my easily recognisable posts when you see them.

PavlovPup's picture

 Thanks you for your service.

 

espirit's picture

@ Philpat

You hopefully realize money pays for it all?

OK?

g'kar's picture

I continue to admire your selfless service to ZH

HedgeJunkie's picture

Keep on the attack, Philipat, we appreciate the effort.  There's already enough gov.bots lurking about, we don't need some moron spammer adding to the misery.

If only Zero Hedge reinstituted the Math Captcha we'd be rid of these asshats.

BarkingCat's picture

Personally I would prefer "Ignore" option. You put a user on Ignore and anything in that user's thread is hidden from your view, including any responses to his or her posts.

FriendlyAquaponics's picture

Perservere, philipat.

You are doing good work.

And every time I see your comment, I make a report.

You are making a difference. Keep it up.

willwork4food's picture

LOL yippee. Dude, do you ever read and comprehend what is going on? Trump will win then they can blame the crash on his economic policies pure and simple. Get ready for a civil war.

strannick's picture

Maybe Comey saw that HED be in jail if he didnt appear to do something

JRobby's picture

"Does Trump’s vulgarity excuse the incalculable crimes of Hillary Clinton and her husband, making them preferable in this election? No it doesn’t, but that’s not the point of this article. Most voters are too superficial, too busy trying to survive and too uninformed to weigh all the very important issues rationally."

Unfortunately, this is a fact and they know it. They even know the precise day to begin releasing all of the audio to maximize impact on voters.

drendebe10's picture

U ain't justa shttin...

Jimmy Jimmereeno's picture

In addition to the absence of an express constitutional direction, there is also no federal law which currently provides express authority to “postpone” an election

fbazzrea's picture

nor precedent. despite a civil war, Spanish American war, two world wars and numerous undeclared wars, America has always held elections and conducted an orderly transfer of power.

if Obama fails to conduct himself within the powers of the Constitution and tries to usurp our electoral process, he will be declaring de facto war against the American people.

The Ram's picture

Obama cannot pardon her.  You can only pardon someone who has been convicted of a crime.  It would take many months to get a conviction on Hillary.  Obama will be out of office before he could pardon her...assuming they convicted her.

DC Exile's picture

Umm didn't Ford give "full and unconditonal pardon" to Nixon? Had he been convicted at that point?

Delving Eye's picture

Nixon was never convicted, just impeached. His cronies were convicted and some went to jail.

markar's picture

Nixon was never impeached.  He resigned to avoid it.

Max Cynical's picture

Wrong...

Can a president really pardon someone who hasn't even been charged with a crime?

Yep. In 1866, the Supreme Court ruled in Ex parte Garland that the pardon power "extends to every offence known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken, or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment." (In that case, a former Confederate senator successfully petitioned the court to uphold a pardon that prevented him from being disbarred.) Generally speaking, once an act has been committed, the president can issue a pardon at any time—regardless of whether charges have even been filed.

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

But is this 'case by case' and each offense? If so, bring up a few now and hang her. Obama pardons her (shows his true colors). Trump wins in landslide. Finds more evidence and puts her behind bars...gets the whole Cabal including Obama, Bushs, etc and finds what is happening and puts them all in jail too.

Akzed's picture

Well, Ford pardoned Nixon preemptively, just in case.

Balders Hymn's picture

Narcissism is building a false self to substitute a weaker or not good enough self. Usually because as a young pup age 3 or so, they hear constantly from their parents that they are either too great or too useless. This false self needs "supply" to exist, that is, unlimited amounts of elevated confirmation. That is why the narcs inner circle is "very special people". Everything that´s "good" the false self claims credit for, even imaginary things, and everything "bad" is blamed on others. The false self will do and say ANYTHING for more supply. It is 100% destructive to self and others, and will leave a trail of wrecked lives, and turn "good" people into self-doubting suicidal empty carcasses that believes they have no power over their own lives. The only solution as per psychology today, is NO CONTACT! NO ENGAGEMENT! In other words, there are no solution to this problem, yet. The only way the narcissist learns empathy is by others behaving towards him/her as they have behaved towards others. In old age, the charm and spellcasting stops working, and people see them for who they are. Old and beaten poetic justice strikes, and they learn empathy at last, but way too late. Especially for the empty carcasses lying about.

Creative_Destruct's picture

" WTF? A letter to Congress....while he's "determining" if the initial "appearance" of the emails is of any value?

...oops, on Monday, false alarm...Hillary did nothing wrong...back to your regular programming."

Yes. I agree this is a possibility. BUT there are a couple of things that I believe the lower the odds of that possibility.

1) Would Comey have even brought this to the attention of Congress if the emails were benign on their face? I don't think so. But could be. Maybe he's so desperate to cover his ass/ redeem his rep/credibility that he brought them up no matter what they are. OR it's a psyop to say "oh never mind" so he can deflate the credibility of the people who keep hammering her over this.

2) Depending on how many emails there are, and how difficult it is to back-trace the context and security requirements for the information presented in them, it may take days or perhaps weeks to investigate them and their context/connections. This could work against Hillary as people's minds fill with more demonic possibilities about what they contain up till the election. This is what I would term a "slow bleed" scenario and is the one that Podesta apparently wants to head off by demanding the release of more detailed info.

I'm hoping for the "slow bleed," but I could be wrong...

MANvsMACHINE's picture

Absolutely no way Comey does this a) without Obama's okay and b) having enough to drop her out of the race. If she had Trump beat, none of this would be happening.

Pumpkin's picture

if he figures this, with a bit more to come, will defeat Hillary, Trump may have already told him that he'd get his job back.

BarkingCat's picture

I think you are wrong about point A.

He does this if he thinks that Trump has a good chance of winning.

It is the "cover my ass time". Especially after Trump publicly indicated that he would get a special prosecutor to investigate EmailGate.

 

Comey likely knows that there are agents who will leak the Weiner revelations the information would not be kept secret anyway.

 

This is not about justice. This is self preservation.

Talleyrand's picture

The 33k deleted  emails are on wiener-boy's machine along a lot of other disgusting shit.

HedgeJunkie's picture

My hope is that we actually have more "True Americans" in the FBI than the pussies I ranted on that got my original name banned.

If so, I would imagine that those "true American" FBI assholes would be burning the candle at both ends to get the goods on Ms Facist.  They'd want to put together their case to lambast her in public.

At this point, however, I already know that the FBI is more concerned to come to my house and interview me over some crank post on the internet than they are to investigate actual crime (yes, they've been to my front door for exactly what I've described).  So they remain a pussy organization that has no legitimacy in law enforcement -- and I seriously resent my tax dollars going to pay their fucking salaries (as if tax dollors are used for anything than paying interest on the federal debt).

At this point, our whole government is illegitimate and a fucking farce of cronyism and oligarch decree.  In WW2 we fought the facists and won...then hired the fuckers to run our government.  WW3 we're going to have to kill a shitload millions more people to cleanse our government of a couple thousand assholes.

Seems a lot cheaper for a couple thousand of us to stop by Home Depot and buy a spool of rope. It's environmentally friendly, cheap, renewable, doesn't show up on metal detectors, and HIGHLY selective...no collateral damage and no blowback.  While we're at it with the .gov asshats, don't forget to grab your favorite bankster to invite to the party, also those K Street guys.

We'd still be under a couple thousand.

new game's picture

post of the century! now, let the implimentation begin. the loop formed to do the task -"formerly the shot accross the bow"....

drendebe10's picture

I'm glad to donate a couple Home Despot gift cards to your efforts 

quadraspleen's picture

"OR it's a psyop to say "oh never mind" so he can deflate the credibility of the people who keep hammering her over this."

 

^^ this

Ex-Oligarch's picture

Wouldn't yet another flip flop just undermine the last bits of credibility of Comey's initial decision to clear her?

Withnail's picture

I'm really suppose to believe that Comey, who THREW AWAY HIS CREDIBILITY for Hillary, is now going to be an upstanding guy, a straight shooter, and do the right thing by presecuting Hillary for the CRIMES HE KNEW MONTHS AGO she committed? 

 

What matter is not what he "knew." What matters are the things he can prove in court, or at whatever kind of hearing they use for this sort of thing.