'Questionable' ABC Poll Shows Hillary Lead Cut In Half In Just Two Days

Tyler Durden's picture

Over the weekend we wrote about the latest ABC / Washington Post "goal seeking" report that showed a 12-point lead for Hillary.  The "poll" took advantage of all the usual gimmicks to engineer the blowout Hillary lead including a 9% "oversample" of democrats versus republicans (which, as we've pointed out numerous times, does not reflect the reality of the true voter registration gap).  Conveniently, the 12-point lead was released just in time for the Sunday political talk shows which all had a field day boasting about the results.

Ironically, just two days after showing a landslide victory for Hillary, ABC and Wapo now see a much tighter race with her 12-point lead being cut in half to just 6 points.  So, you tell us...did voters suddenly have a massive change of heart, in just two days, on no incremental news?  Or, did ABC / Wapo have other reasons to "goal seeking" a 12-point lead over the weekend?  Certainly, it seems convenient that a controversial poll reflecting a massive lead for Hillary would be "embargoed" for release to just prior to the start of the busy Sunday political talk shows while more "realistic" polls would be released just days later, in the middle of the week, without the same mainstream media fanfare.

Another interesting takeaway is how ABC/Wapo voters don't seem to react to news flow.  For example, their polling data showed no change in support for Hillary after her 9/11 "medical episode" (in contrast to almost every other poll that reflected a massive decline in support) while Trump seemingly lost multiple points and then mysteriously regained them in recent days on minimal incremental news.

ABC Poll

 

Here is a graphical representation of the historical ABC / Wapo poll results...notice anything odd?

ABC Poll

 

 

Of course, part of the issue is that, after incurring a lot of criticism for their 9-point democrat "oversample" in the weekend poll, ABC/Wapo decided to narrow that gap to just 6-points in their most recent poll.  Ironically, when you decrease the democrat oversample, the lead for the democratic candidate also declines...odd.

ABC Poll

 

In the end, while we can't say exactly what is driving these wild variations in polling results, the only thing we know for certain is that it has very little to do with actual voter preferences.

 

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AtATrESICI's picture

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/10/28/inside-the-invisible-government-w...

Today, the greatest build-up of American-led forces since World War Two is under way – in the Caucasus and eastern Europe, on the border with Russia, and in Asia and the Pacific, where China is the target.

Keep that in mind when the presidential election circus reaches its finale on November 8th,  If the winner is Clinton, a Greek chorus of witless commentators will celebrate her coronation as a great step forward for women. None will mention Clinton’s victims: the women of Syria, the women of Iraq, the women of Libya. None will mention the civil defence drills being conducted in Russia.  None will recall Edward Bernays’ “torches of freedom”.

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

 

So what does the poll say if you don't oversample?

A Nanny Moose's picture

It says Hillaarity's got this muthahfuckah rigged.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I don’t know how anyone can not vote for Hillary when Trump is so corrupt, and she is promising so many things that Americans want, like good-paying jobs, investment in green energy, amnesty for undocumented Americans, strong action against Russia and the biggest investment in our economy since World War II. I’m simply astounded that anyone is still voting for Trump after all the scandals in the accredited media.

WHY POOR PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE MORE CHILDREN

bigkahuna's picture

Poll numbers are changing....

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K7SMz_UzB4

 

44 seconds in explains this

 

It is Rush - he has made some good calls in terms of the political arena.

Rage Against Your Face's picture

For the gamblers amongst ZH, what surprise states are we expecting to see Trump take? I like the look of Wisconsin at 8/1.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Is this a poll for Carter/Reagan?  Looks like it was printed on a daisy wheel printer.

HopefulCynical's picture

"Ironically, when you decrease the democrat oversample, the lead for the democratic candidate also declines...odd."

Masterful sarcasm.

Soundgardener's picture

Character Class   
Sarcaster

Allowed Races
Troll, Jester, Stoner, Hippie, dOrk, Nerd, Cynic, Smartass, HardAss, Hater, Goon, Goonball, Geek, Goof, Goob, Meat, Meathead, Gobshite, Gladiator, Moneymaker, Boneshaker, Doomsayer, Naysayer, Gainsayer, Barbarian, Contrarian, Sectarian, Shakespearean, Grammarian, Proletarian, Wagnerian, Egalitarian, Luciferian, Utilitarian, Antiquarian, Minoritarian

Class Modifiers
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Immune to Bullshit

Special Abilities
Cast "Minor LOL" at will
3x / day / level cast "Continuous LOL"

Soundgardener's picture

24-pin Dot Matrix / pin-feed computer paper FTW

/1989

drendebe10's picture

Off the meds again & circling in bizarro world with blinders as usual 

Transformer's picture

It wasn't just a 9% over sample!

It was 36-27-31.  This adds up to 94%!!!  Where was the other 6%?  How come nobody else sees this?  It was probably a 15% oversample.

JEEZ

Mroex's picture

Come on you just realized how dumbed down our education system is, you were expecting the percentages to add up to 100? Are you some sort of reactionary engaging in a micro aggression, I will have to run to my safe space now   (Sarc Off)

Unreliable Narrator's picture

Hugo Chavez promised a lot, too.

 

Oh, and #MAGA.

Michigander's picture

You should change your moniker to Tokyo Rose...

BlackSun59's picture

"...strong action against Russia and the biggest investment in our economy since World War II."

In other words, war. No thanks.

moneybots's picture

"I don’t know how anyone can not vote for Hillary when Trump is so corrupt, and she is promising so many things that Americans want..."

 

Another rolling on the floor sarc, from MDB.

 

MDB Sarc: The Movie.

peippe's picture

You think MDB is good now-

Wait til the election is over.

peippe's picture

You think MDB is good now-

Wait til the election is over.

tdag's picture

It helps if you pull your head out of your ass.

Mroex's picture

Now I know you are one of the best satirists this country has seen. I read your link on poor people,

youre satire is fantastic, great job.

Bwana's picture

You are either a HilLIARy troll or have you head in the sand or up you ass so deep you will never see the light of day. Obama has the US and Russia almost at the point of nuclear war. Hillary will push us into a nuclear war which will eliminate over 50% of the people in the US. She loves war because it is an expression of power. That will allow her to declare Martial Law and become the dictator of the US she fantasized about in her first book. "Amnesty for undocumented Americans" shows how truly gullible you are what you should have said is she will allow illegal aliens many of who are criminals and terrorists to remain in OUR COUNTRY at taxpayers expense of about $60,000 per year. You make no mention that it is a felony to illegally enter the United States and a second felony to remain here. If Americans commit two felonies they don't get $60,000 every year they get prison. The cost of these illegal aliens is so great it insures there is no money for American jobs. One million illegal aliens times $60,000 per year equals 60 billion dollars per year to people who shouldn't be allowed into our country. Their cost will cause thousands of business to cease to exist. If HilLIARy makes good on her promise to double taxes on the middle class I'll have to quit my job because by working I will owe more taxes than I make in income. Since I am self employed I will have to lay off 9 heads of families when I close my business 3 of which are single mothers. The only investment HilLIARy will make in American is deposit into her bank account of her bogus charity. Until the technology exists to make green energy practical it is a waste of money. Solar presently costs more to build, install and maintain than it produces. Entire wind farms have been abandoned because they are money pits in which the investors constantly lose money. As far as the "accredited media" who the hell "accredited" them? They are so biased towards HilLIARy a four year old can see it. When they "tweek" the polls by their own admission to about 2/3 democrats to 1/3 republicans to get her back into the realm of a candidate. The media is committing election fraud with their false reporting of HilLIARy's position in the polls. Lastly it is generally agreed that the Clintons are the must corrupt grifters to ever be in politics in the United States. I'll vote for HiLLIARy when Bill is jailed for the rape of the twelve year old girl HilLIARy humiliated to get him off. He is a serial rapist who has been facilitated by HilLIARy.

Mroex's picture

Bwana I agree with everything you said about Hillary, you wrote a great piece and did a great job

BUT as to MDB, He used to make my blood boil, I used to curse him out worse than a drunken sailor

Then I started to actually read his other writings he links to I am now convinced he is a very gifted satirist

Just read some of his stuff, you will laugh so hard you may piss your pants. No one I mean no one could actually believe the stuff he writes, AND please notice , he never denies it when some of us say he is a satirist

Oldwood's picture

Goal seeking is the only profitable short term strategy for the new age of delusion.

War Machine's picture

Good stuff. Pilger has had some great articles:

http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/29368-why-the-rise-of-fascism-is-a...

remember when the Left was antiwar?

Too bad black lives matter isnt worried about black infantrymen, huh?

Paul Kersey's picture

Don't assume that Black Lives Matter is supporting Hillary:

"Black Lives Matter Supporters Give 7 Hard-Hitting Reasons They Can't Support Hillary Clinton"

http://ijr.com/2015/11/481544-black-lives-matter-supporters-give-hard-hi...

Oldwood's picture

Hillary is the worst of both worlds. She is only a socialist when it is effective in buying her support and anything but freedom loving as she wants to impose tyranny over the entire world. We no longer have a system of capitalism or socialism as it is only a system of corruption. To give it any other title is doing a disservice to the name.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Her relationship to the CFR, Davos crowd (Bilderbergs), Wall St Banksters, the Rothschilds, etc...is all you need to know about her globalist philosophy and goals.

Oh, I forgot AIPAC....

monad's picture

As long as we control the olive oil I care not who counts the olives. Don Corleone

War Machine's picture

Although Pilger seems not to grasp that in ukraine, the fascists were just the muscle and useful idiots. Ironic he mentions antisemitism in that context given the very heavy presence of Jewish oligarchs, IDF vets, Jewish politicians in Ukraine, and in the US state Dept in the carrying out of that coup... A coup designed to threaten and weaken Russia - also very much something driven by Zionists...

AtATrESICI's picture

Hillary is a pied piper for a proto-fascist movement. Sadly her followers are brained washed totally, feeling as though they are part of the so called "Left". This could be true because the "Left" is now whatever the state says that it is, but it is surely not classical liberalism. 

Paul Kersey's picture

Looking at the comments sections of various political and news blogs tells a different story than the one we are seeing in the polls.  One looking at the comments on Raw Story would think that Hillary has the election in the bag, while one looking at the comments on Zero Hedge would have to believe that Trump voters will overwhelm Clinton voters. However, it's not hard to notice that the Trump supporters are far more committed than the Hillary supporters, and it is conceivable that there wil be a larger percentage of Trump supporters will actually cast votes than the percentage of Clinton supporters. The one thing that stands out is that this country is in the middle of an undeclared civil war, and that this war will deepen after the election regardless of who gets elected.

Infield_Fly's picture
'Questionable' ABC Poll Shows Hillary Lead Cut In Half In Just Two Days

 

GREAT JAWB, DAS LUGENPRESSE!!!!!!!!!

 

11 days until Trump-mas!!!

Francis Marx's picture

Who would believe Hillary even has a 6 point lead?  Trump rallies VS Hillary rallies!

evoila's picture

I see more Feel the Bern stickers on cars than Hillary stickers. That tells you all you need to know.

Jim in MN's picture

I live in a very 'blue' area.  I have seen exactly one 'I'm With Her' sticker....on the rear end of a Kia Soul or something. 

Voting for, or against, something to do with pussy just isn't inspiring.  In fact it's kinda shameful when you consider the cost in corruption, lives, etc.

Mustafa Kemal's picture

Near very democratic Santa Fe, one sees very few stickers. Some Bernie, some Hillary, a few Trump and quite a few Giant Meteor.

BarkingCat's picture

Last week I have driven across the country and only saw 1 Hillary marker. Right now I cannot even remember if it was a yard sign or bumper sticker.

However, while I have seen Trump signs in every state they were not that numerous either. In many places I saw lots of signs for local and maybe senate/congress critter without any Trump or Hillary signs.

Still, as l sparse as Trump signs are they outnumber Hillary at least100 to 1.

Refuse-Resist's picture

I've seen more Ben Carson stickers than Hillary stickers. Only 2 households with enough courage to place Hillary signage in their yards.

 

Other dems have signs for other dem candidates for other offices, but conspicuously lack Hillary signs.

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

All the polls are suspect.  The constant barrage of negative Trump coverage by the MSM has people less likely to show public support, but when they get in that voting booth, or fill in their ballot from the privacy of their homes, the result is going to be much, much different.

AC_Doctor's picture

Media Pigs know they are headed for the slaughterhouse or worse...

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, yes, Trump has known the Clintons for a long time.  That's how he bought such favorable bankrupcy laws...

Corporatism/fasicism at all time highs. Either way he still "wins", but the world might get a desperately needed reset.

Why Trump? Don't overthink this.  Because Fuck You, that's why.

Tallest Skil's picture

Thanks for correcting the record. I'm sure people believe you now.

Bryan's picture

Numbers without facts mean nothing.  A while back, the MSM figured out they could sway public opinion by just posting a bunch of numbers that were in their favor.  And so the "poll" was born.

War Machine's picture

Hey Tyler, and anyone else who knows more about blockchain and investments generally, off topic, but what do you guys think of this:

https://steemit.com/steem/@shenanigator/today-i-sold-an-ounce-of-gold-fo...

As for polls - they're largely, in essence, weaponized. Just like voting machines and Chinese toothpaste, baby.

Mustafa Kemal's picture

WM, thanks for the heads up on Steemit. Very interesting application of blockchain.