Soybean Exports Were Responsible For One-Third Of American Growth In Q3

Tyler Durden's picture

As we highlighted earlier, while inventories and exports were significant contributors to today's 2.9% GDP print, adding 0.61% and 1.17% to the bottom line respectively, or more than half of the total 2.9% number...

....the core component of US economic growth, personal consumption which is traditionally responsible for ~70% of GDP, was a notable disappointment, predictably sliding by half from its Q2 outlier print.

Likewise, fixed investment also known as capital spending, continued its recessionary ways, subtracting from growth for the 4th consecutive quarter, something never seen outside of a recession.

But digging deeper into the numbers reveals something even more fascinating, alarming and/or amusing.

As the following chart shows, the spike in exports - which curiously came a time of a stronger dollar - was the highest seen in over two years, and amounted to $49 billion in chainged dollars, or roughly 41% of the nominal $119 billion annualized increase in Q3 GDP.

Where it gets even more surprising is looking into just what the exported commodity was. The answer: soybeans.

As Standard Life economist Jeremy Lawson points out, "In a normal year, US soybean exports increase strongly in the winter months after the fall harvest. The Census Bureau then smooths these spikes out through its seasonal adjustment process. This summer, however, soybean exports from South America (Argentina and Brazil are by far the world's largest exporters) have been very weak thanks to a poor harvest, leaving US producers to fill the gap.

"The application of the normal seasonal factors to the unusually large increase in soybean exports has meant that seasonally adjusted food, feed and beverage exports are up 121% in three-month-on-three-month (3m/3m) annualized terms."

A chart of food exports is shown below.

 

And for a little more context as to the sustainability of this surge.

So according to the US government Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the quarter, goods exports amounted to $41 billion of the $119 billion chained dollar increase, while Soybeans accounted for some $38 billion of this number.

Or, said otherwise, soybean exports were responsible for just under a third, or 0.9% of "growth" in the world's biggest economy. Which is bad news: as Capital Economics' Ian Shepherdson said, “The soybean boost is indeed a one-time thing. It has no implications for trend growth and likely will reverse over the next couple quarters."

So doing some more back of the envelope calculations, if one excludes soybean exports, the inventory build, and the contribution from Obamacare which amounted to another 10% of the bottom line, the US economy grew by 0.9% annualized in the third quarter, 2% below the reported number.

Of course, that's not what newspapers will blast on their front pages tomorrow, instead cheering the best economic "growth" in over two years, just in time for the elections.

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MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I’m not surprised. Does anyone here still eat dairy and meat? I only drink soy milk and eat tofu-based meat substitutes, as the food pyramid clearly states that carbohydrates should make up the majority of our diets, and red meat and dairy cause heart attacks. Nothing beats a tofu salad with a nice tall glass of sweetened soy milk. I laugh at all the ignorant people who still eat meat and high fat diets, as I know I’ll be doing jumping jacks while they’re on their death beds!

WHY POOR PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE MORE CHILDREN

Mr. Universe's picture

Soybeans, 93% GMO, pure poison for our food supply. If you really want to know how they plan to get rid of us, slowly, by the poison food supply, then it's easy to pick off the remainders.

JRobby's picture

Yum! GMO beans!

"Let me shake that hand that is growing out of the side of your face."

"I'll have you know that that is the hand I slap myself in the face with"

WTFRLY's picture

Yes, they were probably Monsanto's famous Jumping Joo-beans

Jaspergers's picture

Yeah, good luck getting that shit labeled..

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

Eating soy based products and avoiding red meat leads to a long and full life of never having sex with other people, regardless of orientation.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Does anyone actually buy this shit anymore?  2.9%? GTFO, with what money are people spending?  I make a ton of cash and drive an 11 year old car and save like no-ones business. 

This is akin to the Soviets marking buildings as complete for GDP purposes when only the foundation had been laid.  

We are so screwed. 

jewish_master's picture

driving an old car is the new symbol status. kinda like i dont give a danm what other ppl think i do whats best for me.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

I'll be honest.  I want nothing more than to get the wife a gently used 2012-2013 ML 350 diesel.  

baja canada's picture

Pretty please, MDB, stick with that high-soy diet.  It's really good for you, I promise.  ('Scuse me while I wipe this pastured-pork bacon grease off my chin.)

 

Francis Marx's picture

Your theory has one problem.  WERE ALL GOING TO DIE!

So.  Die a happy meat and dairy person, or a looser soy stuffer.

It seems like all the health food nuts I have know all came down with cancer, alzheimer's, ect

 

golden kafir's picture

I had a hippy uncle who lived on tofu and brown rice and he died young from liver cancer...hard to prove a link but why bother with tofu. Francis Marx likely is a chat bot with multiple accounts. anyone else notice how many chat users don't know the difference between lose and loose ? connect the dots.

Joe A's picture

90% of US and other countries' soy is GMO so enjoy your gender bender carcinogenic soy milk (although it is probably GMO free but don't bet your life on it). Also, soy is the main food for many animals raised to provide the world the meat we eat.

Regarding the food pyramid you mention: They are coming back from "carbohydrates should make up the majority of our diets". That was pushed 60 years ago to boost agricultural production. Carbohydrates are a main cause of diabetis.

golden kafir's picture

actually processed foods and refined sugar are the main cause of type 2 diabetes if you eat complex carbohydrates i.e. whole grains you will reverse that problem. bran or fibre slows metabolism of sugar. not all carbs are the same.

Joe A's picture

That's right, not all carbs are the same. Recent studies showed that fibres give your body the sensation that it is 'full' so therefore less desire to eat. White flour and products based on that don't have that effect. Current grains and cereals btw. have a higher glycemic index value than the ones the planet had a 100 years ago or so. They were selected and cultivated for their higher glycemic value because of certain end products they make such as starch and syrups.

Bunghole's picture

That was your best ever MDB.

I laughed until I peed

Sucks getting old.

TheChickenMan's picture

Soy contains high levels of goitrogens. Goitrogens are compounds that inhibit the thyroid’s ability to utilize iodine correctly which could lead to hypothyroid problems. Soy also has protease inhibitors, also called trypsin inhibitors. These toxins block the action of enzymes that have the responsibility of digesting certain proteins, but it can also lead to a host of other problems. Soy contains plant estrogens in the form of isoflavones which effectively raise your estrogen levels and therefore lowers your testosterone levels. Soy crops are probably the most destructive of all the monocrops. They rob the soil of nutrients without giving back, they’re one of the pesticide laden crops and they are now almost all genetically modified. 

winflation's picture

Soy has been proven to grow boobs in men

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Not true! Red meat causes aggression and heart disease! And it’s cruel!

WHY POOR PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE MORE CHILDREN

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Yes I agree. It's so much better to infuse males with excess phytoestrogens and environmental estrogens used in beef production today. Heaven forbid they don't bow to the wise leadership of the psychopathic ruling class and the biased scientific research flowing from their sycophants in Academia.

In other words. Please graciously FOAD.

Miffed

VD's picture

so wait, you only double-seasonally adjust when now?

NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

I think LOP is in the soybean business.  It would be interesting to get his perspective on Q3 soybean sales.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't over think this.  Crops are harvested en mass.

Moreover, if you are in the business of producing anything real/tangible, then you have real margins.

If you have banker manipulating prices, then things can get very unpredictable.  for farmers, it's worse, because we depend on the weather...

History has shown again and again.  The most reliable way to starve people and drive the world to war, is to put real producers, like farmers, out of business. The Asians love soybeans and products thereof.  They have fiat to spend.  Nuts (walnuts/pecans) will do well again as well.

Peak Finance's picture

So, what sucker countries are we shipping our poison GMO Soybeans to? 

 

bankbob's picture

GMO feeds 3rd World Children you idiot!

If you want to talk about something that should be curtailed - it's Super Premium Pet Food.

Super Premium Pet Food actually ends up starving 3rd World Children.

But then, you are fat and happy and don't give a damn that children starve.

Fisherman Blue's picture

Let the fucking Clinton foundation feed them poor shits.

Arnold's picture

And ethanol production starves kids in Biafra.

( I used to send them my Tomato soup, yuck!)

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Did you know that through charitable food donations and subsidized food prices to the African continent, the continent only has the ability to feed approximately 60% of its population?  The interesting thing is domestic African food production has been increasing at ever increasing rates.  The problem is the population there is increasing exponentially faster than domestic food production is.  

What does this mean pragmatically?  40% of the African population's existence is contingent upon food supplied by Western and East-Asian nations.  

This means that should something happen in say, our financial system, or someone decides to use a live MiG as target practice and all hell breaks loose -- how much food would we continue donating to the African continent?  Perhaps said another way, how much food did the West donate to Africa during the Great Depression and the Second World War?  

It is irrelevant, as we've been selling the Africans enough weapons for some time now to "fix" their population bubble on their own.  

That should make you happy, self-empowering the various African populations.

Stanelli's picture

This is exactly the source of the problem we're facing right now. They have outbred their habitats' capacities and are flowing into Europe. But it's only possible due to this fucking 'charity' that lead to the problem in the first place.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

When the abundant resources Europe enjoys become scarce (as they have over and over and over again just in the past 100 years) the Italian, Greeks and Spanish will be using the Refugee boats as target practice and not rescuing people. 

Lex_Luthor's picture

Already too late. They are already breeding like rodents in Europe. We're screwed

Haus-Targaryen's picture

For the next decade or two we still hold the upper hand.  If things don't change in that time, it will be time to learn Polish. 

PhiPhi's picture

What does this mean pragmatically? It means that Africa should get it's collective shit together and focus on food security, this continent is so fertile that it could feed itself and half the globe to boot.  Who needs competitive mobile service providers when you don't even have food, clean water and shelter?

http://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/

Stanelli's picture

Good, too many of them anyway. And i like my pet. It's my pet as opposed to not my 3rd world children. They have their parents to look after them. And if their parents outbreed their ability to maintain so many children then it's their fault, not mine.

Peak Finance's picture

Hmmm, then I think we should make Super Permium Pet Food out of Third World Children and kill two birds with one stone

Joe A's picture

Not really. The so called Golden Rice (rice gene manipulated to add vitamin A) is a failure. And you would need to eat enormous amounts of it to get the daily rate of vitamin A. There is no need for GMO in these places because with better agricultural practices people would be able to produce a varied diet on their own fields. But unfair subsidies of EU and US agricultural produce pushes local products out of the market.

GMO contain BT toxins and other chemicals which makes them posoinous from the stage of a seed until they end up as animal fodder or on your plate. Roundup is a known carcinogenic product and endocrin disruptor even in low dosis.

youngman's picture

I have heard that it is China again..they are rebuilding their pigs stock..but this is good for the midwest....unfortunatly most farmers maxed out on the corn ...not the soybeans....corn is not going up at fast in price...we are going to have a huge harvest of corn

gatorengineer's picture

sell Tbills and take it out in Beans

MopWater's picture

Global demand for Corn is dropping as there's excessive wheat stocks. Corn and wheat can be interchanged for animal feedstuffs and there's plenty of crap wheat not good enough for flour.

Funny thing, looks like this year's soy crop will be one of the largest on record and still prices are garbage, sub $10/bu in most places, CBOT cash for new crop is just above $10.

Corn crop does look to be absolutely massive. My dads yields exceeded expectations, unfortunately with cash prices locally below $3/bu were going to need record crops to make a profit.

1777's picture

I say my good man, an economic juggernaught! A powerhouse economy...

Another 4 years of this and we'll be selling our organs to the Chinese ' rice farmers'. By God!

 

Volaille de Bresse's picture

GMO soybean as the main source of growth?

So the US = Brazil =Argentina?

 

PUTA MADRE, you're fucked!

Seasmoke's picture

Exporting Inflation around the world. USA. USA.

brooklinite8's picture

I think soy milk can make straight kids to gay? Am I right. Please let me know.. 

_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

So "Soybean Republic" would be more appropriate for the US than "Banana Republic" ?

Allen_H's picture

Who wants that G.M.O. fucking poison, Who wants anything Amerikkkan, I never buy AmeriKKKan.

And that includes if the license/product of the item is USSA branded, I look only for local. Luckily we have many producers around, a very productive environment making everything.

gaoptimize's picture

Males should not be eating soybean or packaged foods using any significant amount of soy.  The GMO soybean is so ladened with estrogen-like chemicals it is dangerous to even live near the fields due to the release of them during transpiration.  They are effiminizing and lowering fertility.