Citi: The FBI's Blockbuster Announcement "Could Have A Meaningful Impact On The Presidential Race"

Tyler Durden's picture

Three weeks ago, Citi's political analyst Tina Fordham, who listed the numerous potential October surprise "black swans" that could affect the election yet not even she could imagine the return of Anthony Weiner to the front and center stage of politics...

... said that she was getting a Brexity feeling about the November election. As she put it in early October, “this is an unusual juncture but we keep looking at it through the same kinds of lenses. What if it’s all wrong because society, technology, opinion polling methods, and everything else don’t capture marginalized voters in the way they might once have?” "What if" indeed.

The reason for the rhetorical question is that according to Fordham, this presidential race feels more like an election in a developing nation where public distrust in government is high and conspiracy theories are rife. Markets seem unaware how much that low trust raises the risk of an anti-establishment vote. Fordham has focused on the Gallup World Poll on public health, which analyzes two decades’ worth of health records of Trump supporters. The numbers show a correlation between the increase in the number of people going through difficult times - as measured by suicide rates, depression, mental illness and drug addiction - and the rise in Trump’s popularity, Fordham said.

“This is the kind of thing that investors just don’t normally run into, but it provides another useful way to think about things because income inequality is necessary but not sufficient,” she said. “There is something more subtle going on about public expectations and exhaustion and a sense of corruption, elite abuse of power, and lack of control.”

“I’m getting this Brexit-y feeling and I know other investors are as well,” she said. “The thinking is: I didn’t expect Brexit, so I better assume Trump is going to win. That element of investor psychology is at play here.”

* * *

Fast forward to today when in a follow up note, Fordham answers the question whether the FBI announcement is a game changer.

She writes that Friday's surprise announcement by FBI Chief Comey that additional emails would be reviewed as part of the agency's ongoing investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server was sufficiently vague and unusual to rattle markets and see prediction market odds drop from 81% to 75%. She notes that she had warned throughout the campaign that Black Swan risks, including scandals and information warfare, are extraordinarily high, and hence have been less bullish for a Clinton victory than consensus.

She then observes that "these developments do constitute an "October Surprise" that could have a meaningful impact on the race" and cautions that this may not be the end of it: "We continue to emphasize the potential for more Black Swan events emerging making things more complicated for forecasters and pollsters."

Fordgam also says that she expects high anxiety to continue to November 8th:

The extent to which the 11th Hour development will influence voter behavior is likely to remain uncertain right up until Election Day; typically it takes at least a week before new developments filter through to polls. With just over a week to go, the impact of the FBI's announcement may be just beginning to register, exacerbating uncertainty. Even before Friday, Clinton's lead had tightened, from 6.4pp on 20 October in the RCP average to 5.6pp by last Thursday (27 October), in polling conducted between 14 and 27 October, prior to the news breaking. In addition to a lag before polls reflect developments, it is highly unlikely that the FBI will come to a conclusion about the nature of the emails, whether classified, confidential or otherwise, before elections.

That said, Citi's "Base Case" of a Clinton victory remains unchanged, however she adds that Congressional races will likely be affected:

Our probability of a 75% probability of a Clinton victory remains unchanged due to our longstanding caution over the risks of Black Swans, but these developments have added a significant obstacle to the Clinton campaign, and are likely to further dent voter confidence. However, we do not expect her supporters will switch their votes as a result; an ABC News/Washington poll (conducted 25-28 October) finds that just 7% of Clinton voters say the news makes them less likely to support her. Furthermore, a significant amount of early voting has already taken place. The most concrete impact of the FBI announcement will likely be upon turnout; potentially depressing turnout of Clinton voters, less enthusiastic about voting to start with, and "downticket" voting in Congressional races, where Clinton's boost in the national polls had looked likely to propel more Democrats to victory in Congress. Here too, our view had been that a divided Congress was still the most likely outcome and we think this is still the case.

In other words, with 8 days left, the black swans in this presidential campaign may remain true to their name.

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ghostfaceinvestah's picture

C'mon Assange, give us something good!!!

Dead Canary's picture

"We will leave every stone unturned in our investigation!" ~ DOJ

Pooper Popper's picture

They are rigging the election,,,here's PROOF!!!Get this out to all you know

FatTony7915726's picture

Hey Mutherfuckers at Citi, stick to fucking banking cause you ain't that great at it.  Leave the politics cause it ain't your cup of tea & your banking success sucks old cunt!

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Pooper Popper Oct 31, 2016 6:44 PM

Should have listened to me, I said Brexit would win 3 days before when nobody thought so.

I said in March 2016 Trump would win the nomination and presidency.

People like investors are out of touch with what is going on down below, on the ground.

thesonandheir's picture

Sat in their ivory towers in New York blowing huge amoutns of cash on coke and hookers wondering why everyone is so angry.


Same with the London banksters too.


Manipulated polls back up their group think.


Market isn't prepeared for two Brexits in the same year.

Paul Kersey's picture

Lynch's Justice Department will go after Hillary's emails just as hard as Holder went after banksters like Dimon, Corzine and Dick Fuld. In other words, crickets.

LadiesLoveCoolJames's picture

Well, now that Tina Fordham said it...She may be right, but why would I value her opinion over the dirty guy on the subway juggling his balls?

CheapBastard's picture

If Barry threatens to post-pone the election, or if the FBI drop the ball this time, my guess is the maw kets would crash Big Time due to substantial loss of confidence throughout the world of American "Fool Fate & Kredit."

LadiesLoveCoolJames's picture

The "markets" do whatever the Fed tells them to do.

logicalman's picture

Could be a whole eyrar of swans coming over the horizon, any minute or maybe a wedge, ballet, lamentation, whiteness or a regatta.

I guess the whiteness would need a colour change, though.

I'm hoping.

abyssinian's picture

Boy I tell ya! These experts at CITI are freaking geniuses 

logicalman's picture

That's why they get paid so much ;-)

anonnn's picture


The most important revelation in the WikiLeaks dump of John Podesta’s emails has nothing to do with Hillary Clinton. The messages go all the way back to 2008, when Podesta served as co-chair of President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team. And a month before the election, the key staffing for that future administration was almost entirely in place, revealing that some of the most crucial decisions an administration can make occur well before a vote has been cast.


"Michael Froman, who is now U.S. trade representative but at the time was an executive at Citigroup, wrote an email to Podesta on October 6, 2008, with the subject "Lists." Froman used a Citigroup email address. He attached three documents: a list of women for top administration jobs, a list of non-white candidates, and a sample outline of 31 cabinet-level positions and who would fill them. "The lists will continue to grow," Froman wrote to Podesta, "but these are the names to date that seem to be coming up as recommended by various sources for senior level jobs."


The cabinet list ended up being almost entirely on the money. It correctly identified Eric Holder for the Justice Department, Janet Napolitano for Homeland Security, Robert Gates for Defense, Rahm Emanuel for chief of staff, Peter Orszag for the Office of Management and Budget, Arne Duncan for Education, Eric Shinseki for Veterans Affairs, Kathleen Sebelius for Health and Human Services, Melody Barnes for the Domestic Policy Council, and more. For the Treasury, three possibilities were on the list: Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, and Timothy Geithner." etc

1777's picture

It's astonishing isn't it?

south40_dreams's picture

The disturbing thing about this black swan, is it makes it appear things are tilting one way, but this aint over, we've got eight more wonderful days of this...

Balders Hymn's picture

Cant the Bilderbeast BE the actual black swan? Man this show sure has a mountainful of fuckery afoot.

lakecity55's picture


Hitlary for Black Swan!

Barry for Gay Swan, err, Gray Swan!

dexter_morgan's picture

Lets start  with the 33k deleted ones already

medium giraffe's picture

'a brexit-y feeling?'

that's like saying 'I'm a bit concerned about the weather' as a passing martian tripod stomps on your plastic flamingos.

cognitive dissident's picture

get FUCKED shitty-poop, you and your sell-side shills always have the white spraypaint at the ready whenever even a light-grey swan lands, here's hoping the entire black flock shits on your heads.


Sudden Debt's picture



Hohum's picture

Sun could rise in the east tomorrow.  Details at 11.

indygo55's picture

October is over in like,,, 5 hours.

1777's picture

Time for the November surprise?

medium giraffe's picture

So far I have been very fucking unsurprised.

Ex-Oligarch's picture

Yeah, I thought the basic idea of the black swan was a low probablility event that inadvertently is given inadequate weight in decisionmaking.  Whereas, evidence emerging of Clinton corruption is a regularly occurring, high probablility event, and establishment entities (including Citicorp) have intentionally dedicated vast efforts to convince the public to exclude that evidence from its decisionmaking.

Yen Cross's picture

  The douchebags at C > remind me of a bunch of homicidal midgets locked in a dark closet with hand axes.

  They argue and hack each-other to death, until there's only one midget left.  [ There can only be one Lowlander]

1777's picture

I spit my food out when I read that! Thanks! ; )

Angus McHugepenis's picture

Yen my pal,

It’s Halloween and rumour has it that Hitlery is dressing for the occasion....

Apparently she will smear peanut butter around her mouth and go out as an ASSHOLE.

knukles's picture

That's fucked up.

Amazingly funny, but seriously fucked up.

knukles's picture

Indeed.  A Un-Godly Monster Poliical Nightmare Internally.
Old saying in the head hunter community.  People from Citi fight each other the first 4 days the week and on the 5th, talk about fighting the competition

two hoots's picture


Fortunately, the Republicans, including House and Senate, have not had to put their necks out to support Trump.   They usually end up getting them stomped on and damaging their party.  The Clinton machine has created enough questionable events and they mostly have to clean up their own messes.  Been going on since Arkansas and not likely to stop until the system gobbles them up and spits them out.  The bad characters that support the shady Foundation, break rules and laws to get her elected, will hopefully fall with them.  It may not happen with this batch of emails but surely Hillary and the Foundation will suffer the consequences of a lack of trust with some wealthy heavyweights, wanting to protect their image, pulling their money and support.  This could be the most immediate consequence.


dobermangang's picture

The bankers should have spent their money on hookers and blow instead of giving it to Hillary.  Ooops.

Boxed Merlot's picture

Please, this could only have an impact if the tools for prosecution were to suddenly be handed over to powers that would use them. That is not going to happen. Self-preservation will likely trump Trump, unfortunately.


Boxed Merlot's picture

Self-preservation will likely trump Trump, unfortunately....


11/01/2016  2:50pm PST.  Maybe not.


Having the former Secretary of State call the former Ms. Weiner "an aide" as an almost afterthought was ominous.



Joebloinvestor's picture

My prediction is that Huma gets charged as being a spy.

A mole who stored State Dept emails (at the very least) for over 10 fucking years.

lakecity55's picture

Yeh, but Hills got a 20% kickback.

Max Cynical's picture

Is there any truth to the rumors of a $1.8B Clinton Foundation transfer to the Qatar central bank? I don't know, but it makes more sense with the revelation there are at least 4 active FBI investigations of the Clinton Foundation...especially if the Clintons think the FBI is getting close to freezing assets.

GRDguy's picture

No matter which sociopath wins the presidency, you've damn well had better paid attention to who is going to be your Congressional representative to the House.  If they're sociopathic, you're out of luck for a decent future. The sociopathic majority has been around long enough. Party lines don't matter to a sociopath. It's them against all of the rest of us.

dude59's picture

Both the Dem and the Rep are sociopaths here, no choice in the matter.

dude59's picture

Dupe due to long processing delay....

whatsupdoc's picture

Hey ...

MDB has been silent for a day or two. Cat got your tongue?

John Prewett's picture

Before Epstein was busted in 2008, MANY big shots [up to and including Prince Andrew]

went to the island .... so it is very plausible Hillary also went along to have some fun


Allegation is that Hillary, Slick, Huma and Weiner all went on vacation to Epstein's sex slave island

and this BOMB was found in the Weiner emails ....

originally found by NYPD looking for evidence in the Weiner sexting case

cowdiddly's picture

And now your fixing to witness and see the performance of  winners vs  losers.

Trump is going to hit them with both barrels and the triggers wired back and the pedal to the metal.

The poor tired clinton campaign will never be able to match the contractor bringing his project in on time and under budget. Only people in the construction trades even knows what that means. It means its crunch time and its going to get done if everyone has to die trying in the process. you push, push, push, push some more and then push even harder.

Him and Pence are all over the map making 8 stops a day and doing 3-4 major rallys a day even on Sundays now straight through. He has 4 Major rallys scheduled for Wednesday alone in 3 states and Pence has 3. No Politician on earth can keep up with that scorching schedule.The Clintons have almost quit and are only having fundraisers and maybe one stop ever other day.

They would collapse trying to keep up with him and Pence these last 7 days.

And this is what separates  WINNERS from a LOSER.

Oh, and I almost forgot the best part. Melania is even hitting the trail for a few speeches including one in Pittsburg Wednesday. Now thats the rally I want to go to and I would not care if she says a damn thing I could understand. SMOKIN

lakecity55's picture

Hitlary has no idea of what 7-10s are hanging commercial rock and studs.
For three straight months.

We do.

Balls to the wall, Baby!

TRUMP  for President
Hitlary for the Gallows!

NMA's picture

After all the possibilities they mentioned in that report who would have guessed it the black swan would be a wiener....

lakecity55's picture

And a Kosher weener at that!

Or did they do Halal?

Maybe it was a split house.