Dallas Fed Outlook Signals 22nd Straight Month Of Contraction

Tyler Durden's picture

Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Outlook has now contracted for 22 consecutive months (the 2008/9 crisis collapse was 24 straight months) with a -1.5 print in October (missing expectations of +2). Production declined, Capacity Utilization tumbled, New Orders and Average Workweek contracted, and wages dropped (while prices paid rose).

"Not" a recession...

Chart: Bloomberg

Notably, expectations for business activity six months ahead dropped to 5 month lows. And respondents do not seem too enthusiastic...

...Job losses from the oil sector are having a negative effect on tax revenues in Texas. This puts pressure on government spending at the state and local level. High-paying manufacturing jobs are being replaced with lower-paying minimum wage service sector jobs. Unfunded pension liabilities of the city of Houston will further depress economic expansion as city budgets are affected.


...The global economies and U.S. economy are very weak and uncertain. We have had a lot of bid activity, but most schools, colleges, municipalities and commercial clients are postponing expansion until they see how the economy goes after the elections. The second and third quarters showed improvement over a weak first quarter, but the outlook for the fourth quarter is very soft. Additional staff reductions may be required.

...We are just bumping along in a low-growth environment. We are starting to hear that auto market may slow, but have not seen it yet in our order rates.


...We are very worried about six months from now. Not only is that a slow time period for us, but with the election not looking to be favorable for business climate in general, it gives me a very uneasy feeling.

But it's probably nothing.

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DaBard51's picture

Whew. I was worried that ZH forgot that there's an economy to watch, too, along with the election.







When nine hundred years old you become, look this good you will not.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Greatest economic recovery of our lifetimes ladies and gents.  

Don't peddle fiction and be a deplorable.  

corporatewhore's picture

What me worry?  The economy is just great/sarc.  Full employment.  Jobs plentiful.  People buying homes with nothing down. Voting for four more of Obama's great turnaround. What could go wrong?/sarc

GoldHermit's picture

I'm shocked - SHOCKED!

FreeShitter's picture

i see alot of illegals in brand new F150's here in houston, yeah this wont be deemed a recession until after the selection.

I am Jobe's picture

Need more IT Jobs to keep the serfs happy in Texas. Fuck, all Austin has is stupid startups and all working in IT industry with no skills. 

Consuelo's picture



But, but, but...


We all need to 'code' and make money off Facebook & Twatter apps, email marketing and monetizing blogs - you know, the 'knowledge' economy & all that, right?  


Right...?   (Please agree...)



loadsofmoney's picture

USA like the UK is post-industrial i.e. we are deindustrializing. Services are now 80% of the economy meaning a 4% fall in production can be offset by just a 1% rise in services activity.

Cluster_Frak's picture

there goes the rate hike.

Vin's picture

The currency reset is coming. Your dollars (or a new "dollar") will be worth very little. How will pensioners survive?

Iconoclast421's picture

-10 is the new zero.