Two Early Voting Charts That Look Disastrous For Hillary

Tyler Durden's picture

Both Clinton and Trump have highlighted early voting statistics that suggest their campaigns are performing well relative to the 2012 campaigns of Obama and Romney.  That said, new statistics presented by the New York Times on early voting in several states seem to reveal some devastating trends for team Hillary.

As background, early voting has grown substantially over the past 2 decades and now accounts for roughly one-third of all votes cast. 

More states are offering early voting, Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida, said. “Once a state adopts early voting, more people vote early as a part of their election regimen,” he said.

 

The modern resurgence of early voting can be traced to 1980, when California lifted a requirement that voters must have an excuse to vote early. Other states in the West followed. In 1996, Southern states like Florida, Tennessee and Texas began to allow in-person early voting in special satellite polling locations.

 

Another landmark year in early voting was 2001, when a legal challenge was brought against Oregon’s early voting laws. The decision in that case, Voting Integrity Project v. Keisling, set a precedent mandating that early voting should be allowed, as long as votes were not officially counted before Election Day.

Early Voting

 

Meanwhile, most of the critical presidential "swing states" now allow early voting, with the exception of South Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Early Voting

 

While higher rates of early voting are generally a positive for the democratic candidate, a deeper dive into the demographic mix of early voters reveals some very troubling signs for the Clinton camp.  First, early voting by millennials is down sharply in several swing states including North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. 

As we've pointed out before, this is obviously a troubling sign for Hillary since millennials voters skewed to Obama by 34 points in 2008 and 24 points in 2012.  We guess there will be fewer Hillary posters on the basement walls of young millennials living at home with mom after the "Hope and Change" they were promised in 2008 and 2012 didn't pan out so well.

Early Voting

 

Perhaps even more troubling for the Clinton campaign are early voting statistics of black voters which show substantial declines in Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio.  These stats are disastrous for Hillary as black voters have historically skewed towards democratic candidates by 80 points or more. 

As we pointed out last month, President Obama enjoyed a huge surge in black voter participation in 2008 and 2012.  After averaging around 50-55% for several decades, black voter participation surged to over 60% during Obama's races.  A failure of the Clinton campaign to turnout black voters by the same margins could be disastrous for Clinton in states like Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. 

Early Voting

 

Meanwhile, the one silver lining for Hillary is that Hispanic early voting seems to have increased across the board.  That said, Hispanic voters represent a much smaller overall percentage of the electorate and have historically not skewed as heavily toward the democratic candidate as black voters (though that could certainly change in this election cycle).

Early Voting

 

Just more evidence that pollsters, by using models tied to the 2008 and 2012 election cycles, may be way off in their assessment of how the 2016 election cycle will play out...we'll see in 8 days.

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Ghost of Porky's picture

Where's the Dead/Illegal chart?

A L I E N's picture

It's literally off the charts!

Infocat's picture

This would be an easy win for Trump without the demographic changes since (((1965))). http://www.truthjustice.net/politics/who-opened-the-borders/

Son of Loki's picture

 

 

WikiLeaks --- The Fourth Branch of the United States Government!

WikiLeaks is the true "Department of Truth"!!

The Saint's picture

This could be interesting:

NEW YORK – Danney Williams, the man from Little Rock, Arkansas, who has claimed since the 1990s to be the black illegitimate son of former President Bill Clinton, will hold a press conference Tuesday at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., to make an announcement his supporters characterize as a “bombshell that will rock Hillary’s campaign.”

http://www.wnd.com/2016/10/clintons-black-son-to-make-bombshell-announce...

Son of Loki's picture

Does this give Bill the right to say, "If I had a son..." when another Dindu commits a crime?

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture

“Once a state adopts early voting, more people vote early as a part of their election regimen,” he said.

Does it really take a PhD in political science to note that few (zero) people vote early when there is no such thing as early voting?

FireBrander's picture

Drove through a part of town today that is lower income and pretty solid Democrat.

1. Lots of yard signs for Local/State Democrats.

2. Only found 2 Hillary signs.

3. Found 6 Trump signs.

4. Found 1 Bernie sign.

The overwhelming majority had no signs..."enthusiam" is rock bottom for the Dems.

 

They'll probably vote straight ticket Democrat which will include Hillary...but they're not happy about her at all...sure hope the weather is good...I can easily see these folks choosing to sit home and have another beer rather than venture out in the rain to vote for Hillary.

Jeffersonian Liberal's picture

No, it doesn't take a PhD to make that deduction, but that was not the point.

The point was that, if a state allows early voting to provide a bit of flexibility for those who are unable to vote on the actual election day (that is, as an emergency measure), then an increasing number of people will take advantage of that allowance when they don't need to and that "early voting" will become the normative for an increasing percentage of the voters.

Ag Tex's picture

Trump will win 352+ electoral votes, clinch the presidential election, be inaugurated in January, take the oval office and move into the White House.

Hillary Clinton will concede to Trump as the victor.

LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture

I hope.

Sadly, the bubble economy will collapse on the next president and that means that Trump will take the blame for the collapse caused by Obama's screwed up (spend, overregulate, and tax) policies.  At least Trump (hopefully) will pick Supreme Court justices who actually believe that the Constitution has meaning.

justin423's picture

Obama's policies?

we need to get Zerohedge posters to pass a class on American government before they can post comments.

the two below Iin bold are DICTATED BY CONGRESS, WHICH IS IN REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF BOTH HOUSES.

spend, overregulate, and tax

 

 

silverer's picture

Nice try Justin. That was when we had the rule of law. That was sometime back. That pallet of 100's of millions in cash that went to Iran. That was not something that went through Congress. A lot of the money is now traveling outside the constitution. I'd like to also point out that the criminals sit on both sides of the aisle. The last time Congress exercised any restraint in spending was when Newt Gingrich led the House under Bill Clinton which we heard called the "Contract With America". It was the only time in recent history any budget surpluses were produced. Nevertheless, Clinton entered office with a 4 trillion national debt and left with it at around 5.3 trillion. Also, even though Congress produces the budget, remember who has to sign it. That would be the president. If he thought Congress was overspending, he could simply veto the legislation and send it back for cuts. Never saw Obama do that. He always asked for more and got it. The "Czars" he appointed in various positions are also circumventing Congress, making laws and regulations they shouldn't be. Obama also allowed that, costing business quite a bit of money. Again, Congress bypassed.

Mother Fletcher's picture

Spending was definitely reined in. But no surplusses were produced. That's another lie idiots like Justin bought into in their love of democrats:

http://michaeladriannorman.blogspot.com/2012/11/myth-of-clinton-budget-s...

Oldwood's picture

If the republicans were to dare show any spending restraint, Obama would refuse to sign their spending bills and those rascally republicans would be responsible for shutting down our glorius and efficient guberment. Not that it excuses their spineless behavior, but its not like they should carry the BLAME for what can only be seen as capitulating to Obama's agenda. OBAMA'S AGENDA.

drstrangelove73's picture

That would be OBAMACARE,(recognize the name,Justie?) innumerable EXECUTIVE orders(not legislation,and questionably constitutional) flooding the country with illegal aliens in unprecedented hoards,overtaxing state and local budgets-to say nothing of the entirety of the legislative product of his first term when his party held both houses and we see you may be the one who is challenged at the Civics 101 level...

hongdo's picture

Actually justin is right and the spineless republicans should have taken the budget seriously and let Obama veto a realistic budget that cut the government in half.  Then let him shut the government down.  He could try to blame the republicans but in a few weeks after the demonstrations run out of steam it would be Obama's Shutdown and he would own it.  I think he would have caved if the republicans had balls.  Instead they suspended the debt limit.  Pathetic losers who do nothing.

trgfunds's picture

LOL wow best joke I have heard all day. Let me guess, Jesus told you? Where the bible link at? ZH at it's finest right here folks!

zaar doze no longer's picture

Yah you're right, Hillary will NEVER concede! What a laugher!!

drstrangelove73's picture

Want to see the joke?Look in the mirror troll

chubbar's picture

Like the main stream press is going to cover his statement, dream on. He'll be talking to the back wall.

MalteseFalcon's picture

What is Danney Williams' big scoop?

He's Bill Clinton's son, but he is NOT Hillary's son.

His mom is Webster Hubbell.

ducksinarow's picture

How would that announcement rock the Clinton Campaign? Hillary will just perform a post birth abortion and that will be the end of it. Besides who gets shocked by kids born out of wedlock any more?

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture

There are black people in Maine?

 

Who knew?

froze25's picture

Most are from Somalia that were forced on the local population by the federal Gov't. The native Black people of Maine can't stand them.

rosiescenario's picture

Another brick for Obummer's legacy monument....The Tower of Babble....but then, as he told us, he didn't build it.....

 

A bit OT, but it was nice to hear from Holder today talking about 'protocols'.....he is an expert in this field....

Son of Loki's picture

Barry sprinkled them around as Phase 1 of his Ghettoization of what he calls, Rayciss American Neighborhoods. Hillary has promised to continue Obama's quest to bring "muliculturalism" (aka, crime) to your neighborhood.

 

Obama’s HUD Policy: Dismantle Suburbs By Forcing Minorities Into ‘Prosperous’ Neighborhoods

 

Prosperous Suburbs are now ‘racist’ and in the name of Diversity – Obama plans on identifying every neighborhood in America by race-population and ‘rectifying’  “geospatial discrimination’.

Think you own your property and have private rights?  Think again.

If you live in a predominantly White and /or prosperous suburb – the Obama regime says you are racist and discriminating against inner city blacks.  Obama plans on addressing “geospatial discrimination’ of minorities by ‘mapping’ every neighborhood in America in regards to it’s racial make-up and financial strength.  Then, HUD will impose new rules that will go out to suburbs that are not racially diverse and demand “affirmatively further fair housing” in the suburbs for minorities. Grantees who fail to comply will be denied federal funding.

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Oh yeah, Barry.

Where's he been lately?

Notveryamused's picture

My preferred betting site in the UK has stopped election betting. I think they've realised the odds are way off and like Brexit the volume of individual bets HEAVILY favour Trump.

In other news Michael Moore's pro-Trump soliloquy was up to 1.3 million views yesterday, rapidly on it's way to becoming the most popular YouTube clip of his, however I see the views have been dropped to <1 million. The 'because you'd be in jail' comment from the debate is also being kept at <1 million views.

They're clearly limiting the views of the most popular Trump content.

BarkingCat's picture

This is another reason to ignore the race box on the census and every other form.

I never fill those out. None of anyone's business.

 

Besides, my race is not on that form.

I self-identity as a Eladrin.

Shift For Brains's picture

Let me get this straight. If white suburbs refuse to expand the subsidized housing of inner city blacks in their neighborhoods, HUD will deny them the federal funding needed to expand the subsidized housing of inner city blacks in their neighborhoods.

I don't want to be prematurely euphoric but I think I see a way out of this.

Oldwood's picture

AS always, the progressives rely heavily on our willingness to self destruct out of guilt and shame that was firmly rooted in our psyche from years of indoctrination. Sadly, it is likely the less educated who will have the best chance of survival due to their lack of conditioning for suicide.

The wealthy and elite leaders are lured into this lie as they are promised great wealth (wetting their beak from federal funds) to promote this notion of the middle class "sacrificing" their money, property values and safety to salve their guilt for success (as limited as it may be).

No Time for Fishing's picture

I'm sure those Somalian feel right at home with Maines minimal sunlight in winter and by Somalian standards frigid temperatures even in July. Yes the Washington Liberals sure are looking out for those immigrants and their needs.

No Time for Fishing's picture

I'm sure those Somalian feel right at home with Maines minimal sunlight in winter and by Somalian standards frigid temperatures even in July. Yes the Washington Liberals sure are looking out for those immigrants and their needs.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I'm genuinely curious. Why can't Maine blacks stand the Somalians?  They're Bros in need of help, aren't they?

Jeffersonian Liberal's picture

You are correct.

"THEY" have taken over entire towns and they are there for one reason only: government handouts.

NYPoke's picture

They don't call them the White Mountains by chance.  Apparently, New Hampshire remains White.

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture

& here I thought that the only logical answer was that they were sharecroppin' potatoes under the whip on the Kennebunkport estate & let out on the weekends to vote for Clinton or Obama because they had a tree of dead relatives going all the way back to Kunta Kinte.

Maynard G Krebbs's picture

I know Utah has at least 8 available votes... that have yet to be banked! 

Creative_Destruct's picture

".... black people in Maine?

 Who knew?"

Morgan Freeman, "Shawshank Redemption" -  ;-)

Liberal's picture

Don't you worry about that.  We got that covered.

PT's picture

Ghost of Porky:  Great minds.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Ghost of Porky ... GREAT COMMENT!!!!! THANKS FOR SHARING.

Joe Davola's picture

I'm sorry, early voting should not be allowed at all.  If you have a valid reason for needing an absentee ballot, OK - otherwise, norfolkin' way.

azusgm's picture

Early voting is a great help in making sure the polls are manned. This is a volunteer effort. Sure, we get paid for our work on election day, but it is something like $8/hr. Few people have any idea about how difficult it is to find enough capable persons to work at the polls every election. With early voting, the elections administrators are able to use capable volunteer election workers for several days and not have to go short staffed on election day.

Joe Davola's picture

Not sure I see your point - if it's hard to get qualified people on election day, how is it easier to get qualified people for several days?

If I were looking to put my thumb on the election scale, I'd make sure to have "helpful volunteers" in specific precincts.  Heck, we have seen the videos describing the practice of busing in voters - easier to have a roving cadre of voters for multiple days.