Citi: "A Clinton Presidency Will Be Marked By Near-Continuous Investigations, Impeachment Risk"

Tyler Durden's picture

Citi's chief political analyst, Tina Fordham has had a busy month.

At the start of October - when Trump's victory odds were in the gutter and a Clinton presidency had been priced in - in a hotly debated statement, she suggested that the establishment may be approaching the US presidential completely incorrectly: “this is an unusual juncture but we keep looking at it through the same kinds of lenses. What if it’s all wrong because society, technology, opinion polling methods, and everything else don’t capture marginalized voters in the way they might once have?”

According to Fordham, the US presidential race felt more like an election in a developing nation where public distrust in government is high and conspiracy theories are rife. Markets seem unaware how much that low trust raises the risk of an anti-establishment vote. Fordham has focused on the Gallup World Poll on public health, which analyzes two decades’ worth of health records of Trump supporters. The numbers show a correlation between the increase in the number of people going through difficult times - as measured by suicide rates, depression, mental illness and drug addiction - and the rise in Trump’s popularity, Fordham said.

“This is the kind of thing that investors just don’t normally run into, but it provides another useful way to think about things because income inequality is necessary but not sufficient,” she said. “There is something more subtle going on about public expectations and exhaustion and a sense of corruption, elite abuse of power, and lack of control.”

Her conclusion was troubling for Clinton fans: “I’m getting this Brexit-y feeling and I know other investors are as well,” she said. “The thinking is: I didn’t expect Brexit, so I better assume Trump is going to win. That element of investor psychology is at play here."

She followed up on Monday, when she predicted that the FBI's Friday announcement "could have a meaningful impact on the presidential race" and cautioned that this may not be the end of it: "we continue to emphasize the potential for more Black Swan events emerging making things more complicated for forecasters and pollsters."

Today, in her latest media appearance, Fordham has penned an Op-Ed for the FT, looking at the post-election landscape and warning that "Investors face political risk whoever wins in the US election."

She first analyzes if a a Clinton victory will "mean business as usual for America and the global order" and responds: "Not so fast."

Investors should brace themselves for the new form of advanced economy political risk, what ever the outcome of the US presidential election.

 

First, any market relief from a victory for Mrs Clinton over Donald Trump, her Republican opponent, will almost certainly be followed by the realisation that a divided Congress will mean a return to gridlock and brinkmanship over the debt ceiling with little prospect for reform.

 

More broadly, following the vote in the UK to leave the EU, the rise of Mr Trump and, according to a YouGov study, authoritarian populism, politics in advanced economies are having what might be termed an emerging markets moment.  Vox populi risk, a concept I formulated in 2012 after a wave of protests, coups and the rise of non-mainstream political parties, has become a global phenomenon. ‎

She then notes that "the economic and market implications of advanced economy political risks are more likely to become systemically significant than their emerging markets counterparts. According to the International Monetary Fund’s recently published World Economic Outlook, political risk in the advanced economies has become the biggest threat to global growth."

Specifically, she envisages the Trump campaign:

From threats to jail opponents on corruption charges to the proliferation of conspiracy theories, the Trump campaign and its supporters have borrowed heavily from the EM political playbook, sowing doubts not only about his opponent’s suitability for office but also about US political institutions. A majority of Republicans now say they believe the election will be rigged, according to data from Pew Research Center, despite the lack of any precedent in US election history for such claims.

Reverting to her notion that the US election looks a lot like that of a developing nation, she notes that "what links this advanced economy political risk with its EM cousin is low trust in institutions and elites — political and business elites, “experts”and the media. It is trust, plus belief in the future, not growth alone, that immunises the body politic against the populist virus. The collapse of trust is also evident in the sheer number of outright lies the fact-checking website Politifact has tracked during the campaign. If everything is bogus than anything goes."

There are also the market implications:

The reaction of financial markets may be the starkest illustration of this change in trend. According to the Brookings Institution, the effect of Mr Trump’s candidacy has been to give rise to price movements suggesting that a Trump victory would reduce the value of the S&P 500 and lead to a 25 per cent decline in the Mexican peso, as well as pricing in future volatility.

However, Fordham's punchline has little to do with a Trump victory, but rather the consequences of another Clinton presidency:

Mr Trump ‎may be heading for defeat but the prevalence of low trust, identity politics and demographic divides across the developed world suggests that he will not be the last non-mainstream candidate to come close to power. This constellation of risks will be in evidence before elections next year in Germany, France and the Netherlands, and will have a significant impact on Brexit negotiations. Moreover, a Clinton presidency is highly likely to be marked by near-continuous investigations as well as the risk of impeachment.

If Citi is right the pre-election circus, and endless drama and theatrics is just the beginning of what is about to be unleashed, a world in which the political realities of DM and EM worlds will converge: "The new normal in advanced economies looks a lot like the emerging markets’ old normal, but with considerably higher stakes for the global economy."

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froze25's picture

This bigger news, bomb dropped by Steve Pieczenik https://youtu.be/ov5kvWSz5LM

It's on the Drudgereport.com now has over hAlf a million  views already

Trump  2016

TeamDepends's picture

Witch is going down!!! Word is that Obama, Warren and dozens of other top Dinducrats are unfriending her and deleting tweets! The rats, the rats, the rats, flee the sinking ship!!!

onewayticket2's picture

question:  WHO is going to lock her up?  the Establishment is going to get her into office if it kills them....laws do not apply.

Whoa Dammit's picture

FBI just released Hillary email investiagtion on line. Be careful what you ask for bitch.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/breaking-fbi-just-released-hilla...

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

You know it's bad when CITIBANK is turning on Her Heinous!!!

How wealthy have the Clintons made their shareholders exactly before being thrown under the bus like this?

LOLOLOL.

Antifaschistische's picture

The Clinton camp and the DNC doesn't care if they have to spend a truckload of cash on lawyers.  And the lawyers don't care either.  They will still have "the power" and that's all that matters to them.

 

This is no different than the crooked white collar criminal who makes his billion dollars and has to end up paying a 20 million dollar fine and spend 6 months in jail.  The price of criminality at this level in America...DEFINITELY pays.

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture
Holy hand grenade of Antioch (not verified) Antifaschistische Nov 2, 2016 8:21 AM

The banker jews rake it in on the way up, the lawyer jews rake it in on the way down, and the media jews sell you the popcorn and Hebrew Nationals all thru the process of both.

 

Ain't Amerika swell?

froze25's picture

Say what you want but Hebrew National makes a great Hot dog.

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture
Holy hand grenade of Antioch (not verified) froze25 Nov 2, 2016 8:31 AM

& charge you triple for it, so that the rabbi's get their cut too.

tarsubil's picture

They do. I like Mel Brooks too. He's funny, get over it. Also, I like bagels and the Old Testament.

Geez, maybe I'm secretly a self-hating joo?

skeelos's picture

Only if you actually like gefilte fish.

 

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture
Holy hand grenade of Antioch (not verified) tarsubil Nov 2, 2016 11:04 AM

Who said anything about liking Mel Brooks or not?

 

The point is that jew bankers, lawyers, & media moguls (who are mathematically impossibly represented in society), get stinking filthy rich of of what amounts to totally unproductive & in fact damaging [societal] enteprise.

 

As far as your comment is concerned, since you like Mel Brooks & The Old Testament, what's your opinion on the 15 Commandments?

tarsubil's picture

These 15... 10, 10 commandments!

My comment was sorta making fun of how I like some things from jooish culture while I consistently rant about joos on here for the reasons you list. Life is funny.

JRobby's picture

The Dept. Of Treasury (Oh! I mean Citi) is always ahead of the curve. They got this one right again.........

wildbad's picture

those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable. JFK

the evildoers will not back down so there will be MANY confrontations.

the low level 'progressives' will cower and hide but those up the ladder will fight to save their collective asses. their obstruction will be inevitably useless.

the best they can hope for down the line is some kind of truth and reconciliation BS. i wouldn't want to hang my hat on that were I responsible for their long-term seditious behaviour.

VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Marked By Near-Continuous Investigations, Impeachment Risk

 

Cool......if it wasn't for the that......the FBI would be out of a job.

 

Those guys have kids to put through college.......they need the work!

Arrowflinger's picture

Many confrontations will be local . All of society will be upended because society from the smallest to biggest entities are tied into the epic fraud.

Infocat's picture

The establishment needs to be fought with everything we've got. Trump is about to destroy their plans. They've been conquering us slowly since 1965, this is the last election for America. http://www.truthjustice.net/politics/who-opened-the-borders/

Dancing Disraeli's picture

And what could be sweeter icing on this cake than McCain and Graham being frog-marched to prison? 

crazzziecanuck's picture

Way more likely that Trump faces (genuine) impeachment than Clinton.  It's also important to remember that the GOP is supporting HRC only because she's running aginast Trump.  Think she made any real friends in the GOP?  I think we'll find out when the threat of Trump is over.

My worry is that establishment being against Trump could be a reverse psychology ploy.  Either way, Trump or HRC, they win.  If HRC wins, it's pretty obvious that it will be status quo.  If Trump is genuine, then the establishment can institute roadblocks, hamper his ability to confirm appointments and otherwise ensure nothing gets done.  The result is that people become even more apathetic to government to the point they can then finally drown it in the bathtub and the majority of Americans wouldn't miss it.  In the end they run things.  Look, after all, what Dick Armey and the GOP did to the Tea Party.  If I can think of this, they've thought about it ages ago too.  At that point, the only real solution is to refuse to play the rigged game.  Which suits them nicely because it's less opposition on the battlefield and been their modus operandi with lobbyists and such over the last thirty years.  There are pitfalls to this approach but they have the guns and MRAPS so by witnessing the whole Dakota Pipeline scene, it's easy to gauge how they react to challenges from below.

Now, if Trump is a manchurian candidate, speaking out of one side of his mouth in public and another behind closed doors, the establishment wins.

The problem is the system that got us to this exceptionally choice, and IMHO, the problem is that voters love to be lied to and when presented with an honest person, they won't vote for them.  People want to hear about how they'll prosper, usually at the expense of someone else.  So you have one group that's going to protect you against immigrants, or protecting the "job creators from the free-shit army", while other political scum off to protect you against income inequality by "taxing the rich.

The problem isn't the choice between Trump and HRC so voting for either really isn't going to have monumental impact on anything (except HRC will drag us into WW3).

Dancing Disraeli's picture

You don't live here, do you?  Trump earned my vote with border enforcement and blockage of rapefugees.  Anything else is gravy.

Arrowflinger's picture

 "voters love to be lied to and when presented with an honest person, they won't vote for them.  People want to hear about how they'll prosper"

Exactly.


wildbad's picture

excellent link. go watch. Pieczenic is an insider contra voice

lil dirtball's picture

So much bullshit. The guy is a spook, talkin' spook shit. Pure disinfo to keep you entertained.

lil dirtball's picture

It's funny, how we used to snicker up our sleeves at the Russians during the Cold war, that they were complete suckers for believing everything that their .gov told them as truth. That they had no free press to tell them otherwise. That they believed everything that came from the .gov and everything else was suspect. Man, those Ruskies were idiots.

Us Americans? We knew how things ran. We had a free press. We had a .gov by the People for the People ... yada. Yada. Yada.

Lol. Americans are bigger morons than the Soviets ever were because they have been duped far longer.

Give me your hate and go back to your dreams of a MAGA future.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) froze25 Nov 2, 2016 7:28 AM

Not sure what to think about this guy.

1. Don't revolt, we are doing it for you.

2. Alex Jones and Drudge pushing don't revolt.

Because they may be able to steal this.

If they do you can be damn sure the guns come out.

UselessEater's picture

Trojan Horse???? He is deep deep state, throws in a few truth bombs and suddenly is honest fighting for the average American? Note his fight is with the Clintons not his (former/current) tribal masters. All they want is the goyim of every creed and nation fighting amongst themselves..... order out of chaos, it may take deep sleeper cells to achieve that.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) UselessEater Nov 2, 2016 7:42 AM

He is born in Cuba and Jewish, raised in France

UselessEater's picture

It gets worse than that he is psych CIA op. So just curious when does he and wikileaks go after the real international banking cabal? Why no leaks on Yellen and cabal co for example?

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) UselessEater Nov 2, 2016 8:02 AM

or Israel

UselessEater's picture

I am also mindful of how heavily indoctrined their society is (Israel), that can only be successful if your country (USA, Canada, etc) continues to indulge cultural marxism. Black and white Rhodesians tried to warn you and fight against it, we were bitterly opposed and subdued by the bullshit of Kissenger. Now you must take the lead or it ALL goes.

edits - for clarification and typo

Dancing Disraeli's picture

He was also a CFR member until 2013.  Makes him very suspect.

froze25's picture

He got kicked out of the CFR. Possible that he successfully infiltrated it and they figured it out.

Bank_sters's picture

Revolt or die.   The people of the country have died en masse- I've volunteered for years helping homeless vets, for bullshit.   I don't see why we wouldn't revolt to take out our own captors.    Voting just doesn't seem to be cutting it.

UselessEater's picture

Then if he is the real deal, IMHO, he'll start with the Fed Res Act and Bank.

 

Bank_sters's picture

It is hard to ignore that cancer!

UselessEater's picture

1913 is one of the worst events in western history IMHO. The Clintons are in comparison minor warts.... that says a lot!

All is chosen's picture

Exactly. The Clintons are merely the front line sales dept.

That Pieczenik video posted near the top is pure distraction. 

UselessEater's picture

I am so doubtful about him, my guess is it is more toxic than distraction. They got very wild about Trump talking about international bankers or some such words, and I saw articles about his choice of words being anti-semetic. This may be classic mis-direction but providing an outlet to vent. The Clintons deserve it but the the planet needs a whole lot more than the Clintons going to jail..........end the fed and we are getting close to real freedom, and as Catherine Austin Fitts is saying, question the legitimacy of your income tax and get the money back!!!!

DuneCreature's picture

There are going to be ALL kinds of distractions and misdirection tried by AI AL trying to keep the lid on the boiling pot. ...... I have always had my subtle reservations about Steve Pieczenik. He comes off as the end-all authority on all things spook to me. .... A backroom coup? ... I'm not buying it.

And another ploy.........

Don't you just love how some of the CIA/CeyeA propaganda boys push the 'Just bend over and take it' meme. ... Oh yeah, they don't like Kill Baby either but it's just inevitable she's gonna be president so let's just get used to the fact and move on.

I just about smacked one in the face the other day for spewing that crap on my rug.

Live Hard, You Can Pick Them Out By How Resigned They Are Or How 'In The Secret Circle' They Tell You They Are, Die Free

~ DC v3.0

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Suddenly there is regret after supporting your horse all the way to the finish line? Say it ain't so Citi, say it ain't so.

Sanity Bear's picture

> Clinton sucks

If she did, she wouldn't have half the problems she has now.

abyssinian's picture

The correct title shoudl be "C

"A Clinton Presidency Will Be Marked By Continuous of lies, scams, frauds, corruptions, coverups and nonstop sexual assaults by Bill in the White House"

 

pan's picture

She didn't.  That was why Monica had to.