Nigel Farage Warns Of Untold "Public Anger" After UK High Court Decision As Deutsche Now Sees 2017 Elections

Tyler Durden's picture

The aftermath of today's surprising decision by a UK high court to rule against the government's Brexit stance, pushing a Parliamentary vote to ratify Article 50, may have major consequences for the political landscape of the UK according to Deutsche Bank. As DB's Oliver Harvey writes, the court’s decision today reduces odds of a “hard Brexit” and weakens PM May’s position, which makes a 2017 election now the German bank's most likely scenario.

Here is a recap of what happened for those who missed it, and what Deutsche Bank thinks will happen next:

UK High Court Rules against government prerogative

This morning the High Court ruled against the government in a judicial review brought to prevent the triggering of Article 50 without a parliamentary vote. The judgment, which can be found here, concluded that:

‘it has been established for hundreds of years that the Crown – i.e. the Government of the day – cannot by exercise of prerogative powers override legislation enacted by Parliament,’ and that ‘the Court expressly accepts the principal arguments of the claimants…[that]…the Government does not have power under the Crown’s prerogative to [trigger Article 50]’.

What happens next?

The government has chosen to appeal the High Court’s decision. This appeal is likely to be heard at the Supreme Court on 7th and 8th December and the government has the right to withdraw it before the hearing.

The decision to appeal the decision may turn out to be a high risk approach. First, the seniority of the judges hearing the decision at the High Court, including the Lord Chief Justice and Masters of the Rolls, and the unequivocal nature of the judgment, which “expressly” accepted the arguments of the claimants, may reduce the scope for the Supreme Court to overturn the decision. Second, if the government loses the appeal, it reduces the time available to enact legislation to trigger Article 50 before the deadline of end-March 2017. In the event the appeal fails, the government will need the support of both the House of Commons and House of Lords, with the latter particularly problematic.

2017 election base case scenario

We believe that the decision today is significant and, all else equal, has reduced the chances of hard Brexit. First, if the government’s appeal is not upheld, the government will have to seek parliamentary approval for starting the Brexit process. It is unlikely that either the House of Commons or House of Lords block the process outright, but both are likely to want to attach conditions to the government’s negotiating stance, such as greater emphasis on Single Market access, as a quid pro quo for support.

Second, if the government’s appeal is upheld, today’s judgment still hands ammunition to pro-European MPs that wish parliament to have greater input in the Brexit process. By contrast, it will enrage Euro-skeptic MPs who demand a hard Brexit. In sum, it has weakened PM May’s Brexit position further and makes a new general election next year our base case scenario, either before or after the triggering of Article 50. May’s very small parliamentary majority (15), will make it very hard to balance competing interests on Brexit in her own party and in the wider House of Commons, without a larger mandate to conduct renegotiations.

Market implications

We took profit on our short GBP recommendation two weeks ago based on the risk of a ruling against the government and think the move higher in GBP may have further to run in the near term, particularly with short positioning still extensive. We retain our bearish medium-term forecasts next year based on a deteriorating macro backdrop and a challenging political backdrop for Brexit negotiations.

* * *

Meanwhile, the local reaction, especially from Brexit supporters, is one of substantial displeasure. Case in point, former - and interim - UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who spearheaded the Brexit movement, warned fellow politicians that any attempt to block or delay Britain's exit from the European Union will be met with untold anger from the public. In a statement released after the historic High Court ruling on Article 50 the interim Ukip leader said he fears a Brexit "betrayal" is on the horizon, the Mirror reported.

After the High Court ruling was announced on Thursday morning Farage said: "I worry that a betrayal may be near at hand. Last night at the Spectator Parliamentary Awards I had a distinct feeling that our political class, who were out in force, do not accept the 23rd of June Referendum result."

"I now fear that every attempt will be made to block or delay the triggering of Article 50."

He crptically added that "if this is so, they have no idea of the level of public anger they will provoke."

Meanwhile, UKIP millionaire donor Arron Banks accused the "legal establishment" of "declaring war on British democracy". He added: "Parliament voted six-to-one in favour of letting the people decide. They didn't get the answer they wanted, and now they're going to use every dirty trick in the book to try to sabotage, delay or water down Brexit."

Other Euroskeptics piled on, with UKIP leadership hopeful Suzanne Evans blasting the judges and said the court ruling "undermines democracy". She wrote on Twitter : "How dare these activist judges attempt to overturn our will? It's a power grab & undermines democracy. Time we had the right to sack them."

"Article 50 is an EU trap we must not fall in to. It will tie us into the EU for years. The government must appeal. People power must win."

Others took the opposite side, with labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn saying: "This ruling underlines the need for the Government to bring its negotiating terms to parliament without delay." He added that "Labour respects the decision of the British people to leave the European Union. But there must be transparency and accountability to parliament on the terms of Brexit."

"Labour will be pressing the case for a Brexit that works for Britain, putting jobs, living standards and the economy first."

Finally, Liberal Democrats Leader Tim Farron welcomed the ruling. He said: “Given the strict two year timetable of exiting the EU once Article 50 is triggered, it is critical that the government now lay out their negotiating to Parliament, before such a vote is held."

In short, the chaos that has marked much of UK political life over the past 6 months is only set to accelerate.

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Unreliable Narrator's picture

Now on full display:  globalism is just a euphemism for plutocracy.

Handful of Dust's picture

 

"If you want to keep your Brexit, you can keep your Brexit. I promise!"

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

"You can keep your un-elected overlords, then you can keep your un-elected overlords."

NoDebt's picture

Nobody gets out of the EU alive.  Like HH points out, just ask the Greeks.

 

bamawatson's picture

they had to pass it to see what was not in it

HowdyDoody's picture

Farage is a banker and supports TTIP, basically a US stooge (which explains why he scuttled of to the US). No more needs to be said. BrExit or not, the UK will remiain servile to the US.

 

 

eforce's picture

Farage is the greatest primeminister Britain never had.

BabaLooey's picture

Jesus H. Christ Farage!

It's all in the fucking follow through.

What - did you think these motherfuckers would go down quietly?????

<fucking quits right after the vote.......scheeeeesch>

Wake up dickhead.

Run for PM!!!

FOLLOW THE FUCK THROUGH!

Publius Maximus's picture

I agree with you but we should cut Farage some slack:

They already tried to silence him by loosening the nuts on his tires...

Martian Moon's picture

Farage knew TPTB would not follow through with Brexit

Didn't want to stick around for the messy bit

He'll make a triumphant comeback to the political stage when the masses call for him

edotabin's picture

Since the very first day after the vote I said that it will not be over until it is over. Even then, TPTB will try to weasle their way back in through back channels. The people have to remain extremely vigilant and extremely vocal. Do not let them steal this too.

Transformer's picture

Isn't this kinda what we expected.  Europe will get a message from the people of USA next Tue.

Bendromeda Strain's picture

We have to follow through as well.

JohninMK's picture

I know there are a lot of lateral and devious thinkers amongst you lot. Have any of you considered that this might be part of a bigger plan?

If May is to get through her term as PM without too much angst she really needs a majority greater than her current measly 15. Yes. I know it has been achieved in the past but we live in different, less disciplined times. In those old days she could have called an election at will but now she is in the 3 1/2 years remaining of a fixed term Parliament. Now she desperately needs a really good reason for an election especially as few doubt that she would emerge, given the state of Labour, with a massive majority.

Do you see where I am going?

There is sufficient time before May's March Article 50 date to:
- lose the appeal, if they bother to wait
- try to pass a Brexit vote in Parliament and lose it
- call a General Election for early March, win it and go down in history as the PM who delivered, and stuffed the House of Lords' views down their ermined throats.

So, this decision is not a necessarily a problem for Brexit, maybe even the reverse.

GreatUncle's picture

Lets put it this way ...

Would you think it best to vote for a politician in the UK now or stab them like 5 times to be sure?

Reckon the latter argument makes a bigger statement than putting them into office again to just fuck you over again.

Oliver Klozoff's picture

House of Lords + The Supreme Court = Seats of Tyranny.

AGuy's picture

Welcome to Hotel Euro,
You can chackout anytime you want,
But you can never leave

Plenty of room at the Hotel Euro,
Any time of year you can find a Crony here.

So I called up the Captain,
"Please bring me an Brexit"
He said, "We haven't had that spirit here since nineteen sixty nine"
"We are all just prisoners here, of our own device"

Sages wife's picture

I guess they didn't referend enough.

Zest's picture

Jesus, it's like being in an abusive relationship and not being able to leave.

Unreliable Narrator's picture

Which always ends in someone getting shot.

 

"Remember remember the fifth of November" comes to mind (Vendetta redux).

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

By playing the Appeal game, they have already admitted defeat.

The Judiciary has ZERO business thwarting the "Will of the People". It is THEIR will that is the highest court in the land.

No 2nd Referendum (from a group of bribeable and malleable ploticians) is needed or acceptable.

PM May needs to tell the Public and their 'High Court' as much.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

<<  Referendum outcome is the Highest Court & Legislator

<<  The High / Supreme Court is the Highest Court & Legislator

 

Who has the absolute moral and physical authority in The Land?

AllTimeWhys's picture

tea and crumpets, this is bloody serious.

dark fiber's picture

The court has just thoroughly discredited the British justice system.  What remains is for parliament to reject Brexit and discredit it self and the political process along with it.  In a certain sick and twisted way of mine I say bring it on.  The ostrich position has gone on for too long.

wildbad's picture

untold anger. damned right.

city hall is easy to find.

coast's picture

off topic but I am pissed and hope many get to read this...its in regards to the ZH article that Trump will hire GS soros former etc....Dear Jesus, why is it that a mjor website can get away without doing the research???  I have to always do my own research...first of all, the story is a rumor from fox business news with unnmaned sources....get real...does the name murdoch mean anythng to you?   There is no substantial evidence whatsover that Trump said what for what fox business news said...I am not a Trump supporter, I am a supporter of honest research...SO now, ZH is posting artilces from fox business news?    dear jesus help us all.

Countrybunkererd's picture

This will continue until someone (many someones) gets burned alive.  "hedge" accordingly because they intend for it to go that way.

Mass_hysteria's picture
Mass_hysteria (not verified) Nov 3, 2016 2:49 PM

Lol you think you have any rights in a "democratic" soceity.

 

newsflash!

 

ya don't!

 

Your vote only counts if it's the right choise, peon

 

It's the ones who count the votes that decide

bluskyes's picture

It's a chance to build a national party within Britain, and take back parliament too.

bogbeagle's picture

 

 

Parliament needs to be razed and salted... never to be rebuilt.

Twee Surgeon's picture

At last they will have a warm winter, they just started a countdown clock to a massive response from the people.

Mass_hysteria's picture
Mass_hysteria (not verified) Nov 3, 2016 2:50 PM

You think they will let you leave the EU? hahahha

 

No no no...

 

They have you right where they want you.

TheABaum's picture

It's like Hotel California.. you can check out any time you want, but you can never leave.

 

 

Countrybunkererd's picture

The new soap opera... "As the World Burns"

TheABaum's picture

The judiciary is corrupt everywhere.

First, kill all the lawyers. 

 

Bear's picture

To quote a famous American ... 'The system is rigged!'

Funn3r's picture

Farage is just loving this. Even he admits he is over as far as UKIP is concerned but he never misses an opportunity to stir things up. As an MEP he trousers a fantastic earner in Euros FROM THE EU WHICH HE HATES, and these Euros are now worth a shitload when translated into his native Pound Sterling. Why do we carry on giving this guy the oxygen of publicity, or even just oxygen.

Cumulus Nimbus's picture

Go fuck yourself. At least he has the balls to campain for the end of his MEP job and his salary. Can you name anyone else in politics who is fighting to end their own job? (crickets) No you can't because pricipled people like him are rare as hens teeth in politics. It's fuckers like you that that need oxygen starvation.

Stanelli's picture

So it may turn out that the People have spoken but the government will say "thanks, now fuck off".
So-called democracy is a myth. Those elected are not your representatives. They are your rulers and all you can do is merely choose your tyrant once every few years.

BrownCoat's picture

The voters in the UK thought they lived in a democracy. Now they know that the autocrats rule and the people have absolutely no say.
Too bad their American cousins did not wake up when the SCOTUS ignored "plain English" (a.k.a. rule of law) to support Obamacare.

Mass_hysteria's picture
Mass_hysteria (not verified) Nov 3, 2016 2:54 PM

People don't get it. I tell it all the time.

Politburo is in charge.

 

You don't have any rights, you are a slave, you are nobody, you are worthless.

 

This whole one person one vote, it's a made up thing only to make you believe you have any rights.

 

You don't have any rights, slave. You choose this path now you deal with it.

giggler321's picture

It's just a game. All this BREXIT crap is just that because the real game is afoot. It's a blame game and BREXIT is nothing more than a way for those in power to blame the masses for the real up and coming failure. I kind of hope BREXIT fails because it will still go through as exit when the EURO breaks - just a few people who lost their pensions and over priced housing can't blame the majority for voting out

Mass_hysteria's picture
Mass_hysteria (not verified) Nov 3, 2016 2:57 PM

Politburo decide what happens with Britain. Not you, slave. You never had any rights. newsflash! Welcome to the democratic system!