Market Indicator Gives Trump An 86% Chance Of Winning The Election

Tyler Durden's picture

Back in January, when it still wasn't certain that Donald Trump would be the Republican presidential candidate, let alone be neck and neck with Hillary Clinton in the polls days ahead of the election, we explained why Trump should be praying for a market crash, or rather not so much a market crash as a swoon in the market in the three months prior to the election. We were referring to a market-based indicator which had a near flawless 86.4% accuracy track record.

As we noted at the time, the old saying that “people vote their pocketbooks” is more accurate than the average political analyst thinks. While Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, presidential candidates are far more concerned about how the stock market might affect their political outcomes.

Here is why this is important: historically, the market performance in the three months leading up to a Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House… the incumbent party or the challenger. Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.

There are only three exceptions to this correlation: 1956, 1968, and 1980. Statistically, the market has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election!

As we further explained at the start of the year, "this relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election. Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years."

Fast forward to today when as noted earlier, the S&P500 has declined nine consecutive trading days, the first time it has done so since 1980. But more importantly, this is how the market has performed in the past 3 months:

The chart above, which shows that the S&P has fallen some 4.5% over the critical three month period, suggests that based on this indicator, Trump has a roughly 86% chance of winning the presidential election. Alternatively, if only looking at the eight distinct cases in which the market declined in the 3 months heading into the election, there was just one occasion in which the pattern did not hold and the incumbent party was booted out on 7 of those occasions, boosting Trump's implied odds of success even higher, to 87.5%.

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nope-1004's picture

Does this indicator take into consideration one of the combatants being underhanded, corrupt, dishonest, and satanic?


Silver Swan's picture

This is probably the best poll available.

Jim Sampson's picture

The Soros Indicator has Clinton (or Obama) at 100%.

gmrpeabody's picture

But, he called somebody FAT...

Supafly's picture

I just want to see A.  The look on that fucking hag's face and the venom dripping from her fangs when she concedes, and B.  The general disposition of all the feminazis at work Wednesday morning.  After that I could give two shits if I die, or worse, suddenly develop ED. 

BaBaBouy's picture

C++ Rigging Programs Are more accurate Election Predictors than any Stock Market Predictor ...

Escrava Isaura's picture

Is this poll another Onion joke?


BaBaBouy's picture

Soros Is Already Sipping Champagne ???

beemasters's picture

"Does this indicator take into consideration one of the combatants being underhanded, corrupt, dishonest, and satanic?"

Maybe, but it also relies largely on the best market insiders' information they have who know the "underhanded, corrupt, dishonest, and satanic" personally.

WordSmith2013's picture

There are different groups pushing HUGE agendas here.



WARNING:  Election Theft In Progress
lovemesomeZH's picture


PrayingMantis's picture


... more evidence for indictment ...
  ... >>> Hillary forwarded classified information to Chelsea ... Deleted email showing she had passed message to daughter without security clearance ... >>> ...


The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) PrayingMantis Nov 4, 2016 7:12 PM

Just put the damn Witch in jail already.  Intent has been proved.

Hillary Clinton deleted a 2009 email in which she forwarded classified information to her daughter, Chelsea.

The email was released on Friday by the State Department. It is one of thousands of emails recovered by the FBI from Clinton’s private email server.
yippee kiyay's picture
yippee kiyay (not verified) The Saint Nov 4, 2016 8:49 PM

The problem is that I don't think this email thing is enough to prevent her from stealing the elections.

lonnng's picture
lonnng (not verified) yippee kiyay Nov 4, 2016 8:50 PM

Even Snowden said that.

Mano-A-Mano's picture
Mano-A-Mano (not verified) lonnng Nov 4, 2016 8:51 PM

Game's rigged.

TeamDepends's picture

So if you want a chuckle and/or insight into the hive mind of the enemy, check out our foray into trolling at Look for Donald Trump's Final Case.... We didn't last very long and this fills us with manly righteousness and kick-ass resolve because it is a commie echo chamber. We will be easy to spot.

Shocker's picture

This poll would be great to see... but we know how that goes.
Hopefully people are finally ready to turn this economy/country around

Layoff List:

philipat's picture

SPAM ALERT: Serial spammer DO NOT click on his fake links which are completely unconnected to his comment.Current active accounts: Yippee Kiyay, lonnng, letsit, Mano-A-Mano, techies-r-us, beauticelli and stizazz plus some others under review. He doesn’t actively Spam with every account and uses some just to “talk to and congratulate himself”.
Previous names include but not limited to: mofio, santafe, Aristotle of Greece, Gargoyle, bleu, oops, lance-a-lot, Loftie, toro.
Shit Tylers, this asshole has more accounts than the rest of us combined!. Can’t you IP block him? And his conversations with himself are now taking up half of each thread.

jeff montanye's picture

fraud widespread and deep enough can trump even trump, but it is instructive to look at the exceptions to the rule.  

twice incumbents with up markets were defeated: humphrey in '68, at the height of the exceedingly unpopular war in vietnam, couldn't take his badly fractured democrats to victory after lbj dropped out and bobby kennedy was assassinated; carter in '80, with inflation and interest rates at historically high levels and a u.s. embassy in tehran full of hostages unfreed by his tepid and unsuccessful attempt, couldn't beat reagan, a gifted politician at the top of his game.

one incumbent in a down market succeeded: ike in '56, the war hero general who led the allies to victory over hitler, ended the korean war and was presiding over the supreme u.s. economic domination of the world beat adlai stevenson whom he had beaten four years earlier.

today we have one of the least popular, and poorest, politicians to run for the presidency (had to cheat to beat an obscure socialist jew) following eight years of a president who had less than a 50% average approval rating (  she is running against an equally unpopular candidate but one who has ridden well the significant enthusiasm to throw the rascals out, is not looking over his shoulder at possible multiple felony indictments, did not start three unsuccessful wars, and has not recently been loaded into a van as an inanimate object.

greenskeeper carl's picture

I've been tracking things like AR magazines at various websites the last few days. You would think that if people were really worried, they'd be buying that kind of thing up, but everywhere has them in stock. Same with cheaper stripped lowers. They are a little more expensive than they were 6 months ago, but not by much, and seem to be in stock most places. A bunch of online retailers are selling popular mags like Pmags for 10$, which you wouldn't expect if people really thought she was going to win.


I've been thinking about buying a shitload of them as an investment. After the first mass shooting of her in office, I bet I can get $50 plus for them just standing outside a local gun show. If she loses, which I think will happen, then all I've done is buy myself and my family a lifetime supply of AR mags.

balolalo's picture

the fact that zh (pro-trump-suckers du jour) have no updates, no smaoking guns trlls you something...

Trump has played middle class america for fools. 

JohnnyHenricksen's picture

No updates?  What in the last 2 hours?  

I'm choking from the smell of cordite from all the smoking guns.

Take off the purple gas mask.

Radical Marijuana's picture

"... it’s clear that the DNC has approved of every form of election fraud ever tried ..."

It would seem to me that everything that can be done to rig elections is being done!

There is NO doubt that it is possible to rig the vote counting:

Hacker Guccifer 2.0 Warns He Has "Info From Inside FEC: Democrats May Rig The Elections"

Given the overwhelming degree to which the elections are being rigged in every possible way, it would seem that the "winner" will have necessarily won some kind of covert arms race with respect to the rigging. There are NO good grounds to expect the election results will be honest. Rather, the "winners" will most likely be the best cheaters.

One of the amusing things to consider are what happens when dueling hackers are attempting to hack the same electronic processes ... I wonder whether it would be possible for that to generate obviously absurd results, due to the compounding and confounding effects of different people simultaneously attempting to rig the elections?

It is interesting how "faction magic" to rig vote counting, reminds one of "fractional reserve banking." The election vote counting is being treated as if the votes were like money, in the sense that while votes should only be whole integers, the computer program that counts those votes can be constructed to use decimals, so that the totals can be manipulated, and then finally rounded up, to look like those totals were not being manipulated.

Since to play "fair" would certainly mean defeat, the only way to "win" would be to cheat better than other cheaters.

However, what might happen if various cheaters are attempting to cheat in different directions, at the same time???

nmewn's picture

I've bumped off this theme many times...

"Since to play "fair" would certainly mean defeat, the only way to "win" would be to cheat better than other cheaters."

...its not for the faint of heart, one needs to stay grounded in the reality of the obvious with it.

Is the "Affordable Health Care Act"...affordable?

Is "Social Security"

Is the "Patriot Act"...patriotic?

If "playing fair" was the nature of this DC Beast they wouldn't mock us so with these mis-representations of "laws" that actually mean the exact opposite of what our perception of the wording is.

And yet, no one see's it ;-)

JusticeTBuford's picture


Nominee for:

The most rational and level headed, thoughful and meaningful poster to ZH.

WordSmith2013's picture


There Is Now Only One Outcome For The November 8th Election
lurker since 2012's picture

Afterwards Ms Clinton spoke of mothers legacy. This woman is like a mother to me. I remember when i was nine or ten she hugged me for no reason. GOLD


American Psycho's picture

My indicator is the peso.  Collasping =  Trump

nmewn's picture

Its not a poll, its an indicator showing correlation. 

Ya know, like a certain 69yr old woman who has been in government for 30yrs, watching over the Establishment sucking the life & liberties out of the people making them as slaves as she promises yet again to unshackle them if you give her just-one-more-chance.

Can you provide for us any one bill she sponsored that became "law" that benefited the people as a senator? How about as SoS, anything there besides being a party to international gun smuggling? First Lady then, do you think hanging condoms on the WH Christmas tree is funny too?

Creative_Destruct's picture

"How about as SoS, anything there besides being a party to international gun smuggling?"

Add in destabilizing the entire Mid East, killing 500K+, turning tens of millions into homeless destitute refugees, thereby threatening the cultural, social and economic destruction of Europe.... BUT(sigh) this is all OOOOLLLD news, that 50% of the country weights as less important than potty-mouth talk by Trump....

nmewn's picture




I would have thought ObamaCare targeting the "young & healthy" would have been enough to push the "young & healthy" back towards liberty & choice but I guess not, so now its time to "target" their teachers & professors.

I'm-Jus-Sayin ;-)

Son of Loki's picture

Some people in China have an odd reason for supporting whom they do. For example, my friend there says some support Hillary because they want the United States to collapse.

Escrava Isaura's picture

nmewn: Can you provide for us any one bill she sponsored that became "law"

Here’s the best link I could find:




JusticeTBuford's picture

Her triangle is missing its horns and tail.

Son of Loki's picture

Washington state Democratic elector says he won't vote for Clinton


WASHINGTON (AP) — A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won't vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month.

He said he believes Clinton is a "criminal" who doesn't care enough about American Indians and "she's done nothing but flip back and forth."


Miffed Microbiologist's picture

But you must admit Photoshop is nothing less than miraculous.


nmewn's picture

Pretty sure I said BECAME LAW...try this... 

Her "record of accomplishment in the Senate" (besides being on the high end of missing Senate votes, which is actually a good thing for us) was re-naming a building. Sponsoring & co-sponsoring BILLS that have zero chance of passage points to her ineptitude...not accomplishment.

I will remind you and every other insane little prog out there...AGAIN...that a bill, a resolution, a "sense of the Senate" not a fucking LAW!

It is more like an advertisement stapled to a power pole, it means NOTHING until the Senate and the House passes it and THEN a President signs it INTO LAW.


John_Coltrane's picture

Here's another interesting indicator. Smith & Wesson (SWHC), a stock which I've had in my portfolio until about 6 months ago when Trump won the nomination, has been in a 3 month downtrend from its peak at $30 to about $27 now. That's a good indicator for Trump.

And thanks, Obama, for all the profits. You're the best gun salesman ever. I've made a special target with you on it to honor your contribution to gun culture in America. The Hildabeast isn't even target-worthy.

hxc's picture

The stock market is now the Onion? Brain-damaged faggot communist, come up with something that isn't some absurd, botlike non-sequitur.

cheka's picture

even the least corrupt polls only report 'likely voters'.  so they are completely blind on unlikely voters.  trump in a landslide is the result (on paper)

likely voter = had to vote in 2/3 or 3/4 of last elections...somtlhing like that

cayman's picture

And don't forget that the indicator never faced an incumbant party sporting a puported and malodorous vag.

opport.knocks's picture

True, 10 pts for the C++ joke.

BabaLooey's picture

I now work at a place that has Canks fat assed femi-assholes seeping from the woodwork.

I work from home, so I can limit my exposure to the vermin.

I have a list of email addresses of all of them (now as a "new employee").

I've given a copy of that list to a Trump group here. 

They have a list of known Canks catheter bag oozers.

Once Trump is elected, they plan to email-bomb the FUCK out of these warthogs - into oblivion.

Trump close ups. Trump close ups with super-imposed "grab that pussy!" graphics. 

YOUR President! Get used to it pussy! with a smiling Trump

ORANGE is your new leader bitch!

...all sent from newly created Yahoo accounts....LOL

The farting, messy toilets, donuts barfed up on November 9th will be epic.

Racin Rabitt's picture

Oh man! I wish could see it happen!

Jim in MN's picture

Send them this picture, of Epstein's smirky pimp at Chelsea's wedding.


dexter_morgan's picture

And seemingly checking out Chelsea's ass as she goes by.

BabaLooey's picture

Done and done.


These guys are "pros".

They plan on email carpet bombing the "warthogs" (as they call them) mercilessly. 

The other things they are doing is signing each of them up for Trump auto-emails, and MALE gay porno mags.

NRA stuff. Gun mags. All sorts of shit. It's a hoot visiting one of their "man caves".