Despite Massive Upward Revisions, Fed's Own Jobs Indicator Plunges Year-Over-Year - Flashes Recession Warning

Tyler Durden's picture

Thanks to sudden upward revisions for the last 7 months in a row...


The Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index "looks" better than it did before (with a 0.7% rise in October MoM).


However, despite all the revisions, the October print leaves LMCI negative year-over-year for only the 8th time in US history.


That's only the eighth time in nearly 40 years the index was down on a year-over-year basis, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joseph LaVorgna wrote in a note to clients today. Of the seven previous occasions, LaVorgna wrote, "four were soon followed by recession."

(In the three other cases, two were false alarms, in 1986-87 and 1995-96, and in 1981 the recession began shortly before the annual change in the LMCI turned negative.)

LaVorgna said the weakness in the LMCI indicates a rising possibility of recession.

"The upshot is that the economic outlook remains fragile despite the ostensible robustness of the labor market," he wrote.

And, as we noted previously, while Deutsche Bank is growing concerned, they are not alone, as even the NY Fed's recession indicator is spiking to new highs...

Chart: Bloomberg

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Raffie's picture



Everything is always fine here on Planet Unicorn.

What is so hard to understand about Planet Unicorn?


HockeyFool's picture

Someone is peddeling fiction again.

tarsubil's picture

This is not a touchdown. They just have to move the endzone, again, to make it officially not a touchdown.

Forward Soviets!

kliguy38's picture

Scotty beam me up MOAR BARTENDERS

small axe's picture

more tinkle down will make everything better for the little guy, just you wait and see!


ebworthen's picture

Time to normalize rate to 5% Janet.

DavidC's picture

She will, as soon as Trump wins rates will go up - easy to blame the crash on Trump.


Bill of Rights's picture

Of course it is, they goosed the numbers for the polls same shit every four years......

ajkreider's picture

Yes, they goosed the numbers to swing all those on-the-fence voters who were waiting for the Fed Employment Index to come out before they made a decision.


Do you people actually believe this stuff you're writing?

Infield_Fly's picture
Infield_Fly (not verified) Nov 7, 2016 11:08 AM



Now we have LUGEN-FED

Nunyadambizness's picture

We always have.  Central bankers lie; always have, always will--doing anything else would result in the ceasing of their existence.


DarthVaderMentor's picture

I just wish that we had competent propagandists. Unfortunately, our "higher education system" (which is in reality an indoctrination and propaganda certification system for the Globalist Elite) only produces these idiot mathematician savants that can't even weave an effective lie for propaganda.

We are going down, folks, unless we get massive change. This proves we can't even produce effective liars anymore.

Run to your safe space, everyone! ISIS is coming with the REAL change!

Nunyadambizness's picture

Face it, the FED is in the pocket of the politicians, and Obozo and company need to show the economy is awesome, so guess what?  Unemployment is down, everyone's working, there's no inflation, and life is great!!

Seems to me I remember something like "Work makes you free" that was thought up by the same types of people....  

Posa's picture

The FED is owned by private banks... they, in turn, own the politicians.

Bay Area Guy's picture

Go ahead. Normalize rates to 5%. Let there be a budgetary line item for $1 trillion. The press will say Clinton is brilliant anyway.

woshidameinv's picture

I'm loosing my faith in this blog, if you actually check the data, you can see a completely different story,


I seriously question not only the data quality, but also the author's intention on this article.