Reuters Explains How It "Fudged" Its Polls

Tyler Durden's picture

Over the past couple of weeks, we have constantly pointed out that polling data was seemingly being manipulated to "manufacture" artificial leads for the mainstream media's chosen candidate, Hillary Clinton.  By "oversampling" democrats and/or various minority groups, pollster after pollster kept rolling out predictions that seemed utterly ridiculous to us but were gobbled up by complicit media outlets.  Here is just a small sample of our headlines from the past couple of months:

"ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary's "Lead" Shrinks To 2-Points"

 

"How Reuters "Tweaked" Its Latest Poll (Again) To Show A Clinton Lead"

 

"Statisticians Warn Of "Systemic Mainstream Misinformation" In Poll Data"

 

"CNN Goes "Full Reuters" - Attempts To Rig VP Debate Poll With Too Many Dems In Sample"

 

"New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through 'Oversamples'"

Not surprisingly, Reuters this morning officially confirmed everything we've been saying for the past several months about "oversamples" of certain demographic groups causing polling data to be artificially skewed toward Hillary.  As Reuters admits, "the models almost universally miscalculated how turnout was distributed among different demographic groups."

And that’s what happened Tuesday: The election models calculated the probabilities of a Clinton win that turned out to be high, because they viewed each state too much in isolation.

 

The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project projected Clinton to win the popular vote 45 percent to 42 percent, and gave her a 90 percent probability of winning the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the election. In the end, Clinton won the popular vote by 47.7 percent to 47.5 percent, by the latest count, and Trump could win the Electoral College by as many as 303 votes to Clinton’s 233 when the tally is final.

 

The problem, said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs US, the polling partner of Reuters, came down to the models the pollsters used to predict who would vote - the so-called likely voters.

 

The models almost universally miscalculated how turnout was distributed among different demographic groups, Young said. And turnout was lower than expected, a result that generally favors Republican candidates.

 

Ultimately, missing that shift in the state polls tripped up the predictions. It also highlights how the otherwise empirical process of polling rests on a subjective foundation.

 

Each pollster must make a decision about turnout. Their decisions are informed by historical voting patterns. But the actual turnout in each state is unknowable before election day.

Trump Wins

 

As Reuters also notes, another flaw in the way the polls are presented is the overemphasis on the popular vote.  While the national polling data is a useful metric the more important determinant of presidential elections is the voter turnout estimates (i.e. "likely voters") in individual swing states.

Beyond the calculations of the candidates' odds of winning the Electoral College, there was a near constant stream so-called “horse race polls,” or tracker polls, that focused on the distribution of the national vote between the major candidates.

 

Here, too, pollsters -- and the media that co-sponsored or covered the polls -- stumbled, largely because the popular vote metric itself is of limited utility and cannot, of itself, predict the outcome of the Electoral College.

 

As of Wednesday morning, Clinton led the popular vote by slightly less than 1 percentage point. The McClatchy-Marist poll released on Nov. 3, for example, had Clinton up by one point - one of the most accurate calls of the popular vote. But even that headline number missed the point a bit, because she lost the election in the Electoral College.

 

A few polls correctly pegged Trump as the winner. The International Business Times/TIPP poll had Trump leading on Nov. 7. That poll put him ahead in the popular vote by two percentage points, which in the end overstated his share by about three points.

 

Young said both pollsters and journalist described the results of the national polls and predictions with a false precision by presenting the result as near absolutes.

 

“The forecasting models, which assign probabilities or chances to candidates, are no better than the polls themselves,” he said. “If the polls are off, the forecasting models will be off, too.”

Ironically, the one person who seemed to call this race better than anyone else was Michael Moore who called PA, OH, MI and WI all for Trump weeks ago.  Before November 8th all the "real" pollsters would have laughed at the idea of Trump winning all four of those states but that is, in fact, exactly what has happened.

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Blame it on the 'models'.

Bad models. Bad, bad, bad.

Looney's picture

 

The simplest way to roll back everything 0bama has signed (see below) is to finally FIND and PUBLISH his Birth Certificate, the real one!

In one fell swoop, without Paul “Dindu” Ryan, Mitch McTurtle, and without the 60 votes in the Senate, Trump could undo:

All executive orders and regulations issued by the illegitimate president, his nominees, and appointees.

All laws enacted and SIGNED by him since January 21, 2009, including 0bamacare and bailouts.

Kick out Yellen and everyone else nominated by 0bama to the Fed.

Kick out Kagan and Sotomayor from the Supreme Court.

Rescind all pardons (if someone did deserve a pardon, Trump can re-pardon them immediately).

Will it be embarrassing for the country? Maybe, maybe not…

Will it be healthy for the country? Heck yeah!   ;-)

Looney

PrayingMantis's picture

 

... attn: Hiliary ... you're being paged again in Brazil ...

... 'Miss Granny Bum Bum' - a new section of the annual Miss Bum Bum competition - was introduced at this year’s event in Sao Paulo ...

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5cb_1478780320

Handful of Dust's picture

Alot of gratitiude goes not only toe WikiLeaks but blogs like ZH that informed Americans and the world of the widespread profund corruption and misinformation propaganda.

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

In other words they lied.  They didn't like the data, so they changed it.  They cheated on the test.  They thought they could pull a Kirk and the Kobyashi Maru and change the conditions of the test.  They FAILED.

SamAdams's picture

306 to 232 by my count.  That is a landslide.  I find it odd that 88% of the population voted.  That tends to indicate the democrat popular vote was largely rigged.

E.F. Mutton's picture

I hate you for putting those two together.  That's just dirty pool, man.

knukles's picture

Dude ... That's just fucking wrong.

Countrybunkererd's picture

unless you built yourself a surgical empire... odumbass care is going away... oh nooooooooooooooo!

happy to say that mrs. bunkererd is going grey and all that goes with it...a strong woman and loved dearly.

jwoop66's picture

That was uncomfortable.

 

bada boom's picture

I Loretta Fuddy had the original in her posession when she was on the plane.

Countrybunkererd's picture

the big question:  IS TRUMP A ZHer???  that answers a lot of questions for us and the world.

sister tika's picture

I like your list, Looney. Well said.

Joe Davola's picture

The democrats stated goal of "getting out the vote" and demonizing the opposition worked against them by suppressing the vote. The whole "lesser of two evils" ain't a winning move.

canisdirus's picture

When your only argument for yourself is, "hey, I'm not that guy over there!", then you call over half of American citizens, "deplorables", I don't know how you could legitimately hope to win.

The scary thing is how many indoctrinated snowflake savages there are in this country. They did what they did at Trump rallies before the election right after the election... I have no clue what kind of "educated voter" participates in riots when they don't get their way.

InTheLandOfTheBlind's picture

when can we start using your avatar photo on the press?  hopefully with a dull, rusty blade... wouldn't want it to cut all the way through on the first cut... all this after a treason trial mind you... in a true court of justice... if one exists... may be time to return the grand jury to the people and out of the hands of the annointed, um appointed prosecutors.

Countrybunkererd's picture

the height of the machine needs to be revised lower... like the jobs numbers

Holy hand grenade of Antioch's picture
Holy hand grenade of Antioch (not verified) Looney Nov 10, 2016 3:44 PM

@Looney

Nice idea! But please don't appoint Jamie Dimon as the new czar of birth record lookups.

BabaLooey's picture

BING- FUCKING - GO!

Personally, I cannot wait for Trump ....TO ASSUME POWER....

I believe Trump is cagey about this. He's not going to say shit until AFTER he's sworn in.

THEN that fucktwat Soetero is in big fucking TROUBLE.

I say Trump unleashes a special team to root out all the fuckers sordid past.

AND....do what he wants - his agenda - as this shit all gets dug up/exposed/uncovered.

January 21st...................https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGyOaCXr8Lw

mkhs's picture

Mcturtle?  You son of a woman who smells of elderberries.  Leave turtles out of this.  I fart in your direction.

dark fiber's picture

That's what economists do all the time.  They are still taken seriously though.

GreatUncle's picture

Oh them bad, bad, bad models made the snowflakes cry ... aaaahhh deee-dummm.

Thing is snowlfakes it was the MSM models.

True Blue's picture

But their models indicating 'global warming', erp I mean 'global cooling' damn, that's not right, ummm 'climate change' are entirely and scientifically 'valid' -right? Bwahahaha.

BiGIBiGO -Biased Garbage in = Biased Garbage out.

cheech_wizard's picture

I was so tempted to post a picture of a woman in leather with a whip...

Standard Disclaimer: Find your own damn porn.

JuliaS's picture

Same people who are in charge of running polls educate us on climate change.

1980XLS's picture

It was intentional malicious corruption. 

Soros bought them

Stan522's picture

Too many dem's polled... their tactic backfired because too many dem voters simply sat home and did not vote thinking they got it covered by other people with more initiative....

 

LOL

silverer's picture

Maybe Reuters should sell fudge. Their journalism isn't worth marketing.

truthalwayswinsout's picture

I blame it on the law firm of Lie, Cheat and Steal.

knukles's picture

They just announced a new partner, Squeal
Lie Cheat Steal and Squeal

Handful of Dust's picture

PA was a big shocker although I knew several groups up there, including several Dem groups hated both Soweto and Hitlery and worked hard for The Trumpmeister. Podesta and Hillary were so arrogant about some of these states that it gratifying to see them lose by a landslide.

 

 

InTheLandOfTheBlind's picture

in all honesty, we owe a lot to their arrogance

south40_dreams's picture

What species does Podesta belong to?

knukles's picture

Shape Shifting Reptilian, along with the rest of our Overlords

Bill of Rights's picture

Pricks, nothing to lose now huh...

AllTimeWhys's picture

Nigga you just went full reuters

CaptainObvious's picture

Something all the poll hucksters missed.  Many of us voted for Trump solely to be sure that Clinton wouldn't win.  And we didn't really advertise that because we'd get it from both sides.

knukles's picture

Yep.  Everybody is mumbling under their breaths for the SWJ Progressives to Grow the Fuck Up

wet_nurse's picture

Low energy models

SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Aaaaaand, after only a 48 hour hiatus, the propaganda machines have roared back into action, misinforming the public.
These cocksuckers, cuntlickers and whores, should be the first ones, to be tried for treason and sent to the public stocks, for flogging and general humiliation.

The Count's picture

All those in the business of forcasting have their head up their asses trying to see the future. And guess what, 99 percent of what they come up with is shit. Pun intended. I am/was an economist. We get paid to come up with some number that please whoever requested the data. If economists really could estimate the future they would all be rich. Another pretty clueless group are the meteorologists. Anything out over 3 days is a crap shoot, but they will never admit to that.

AmandaFawndel's picture

The jew run media did the bidding of the jew run FED.  Keep the sheeple entertained while we pretend real change is possible(AGAIN)....END OF STORY....

Countrybunkererd's picture

odumbass had real change, but not the type that was desired. so were you on the wrong side of REAL change that people want?

Sparehead's picture

Anything other than "we tried to manipulate the electorate to support our candidate" is a lie.

alexcojones's picture

Pronounced "Rotters."

Truthfully.

Orc from Mordor's picture

They should've known better when explaining where bullshit comes from. Hint: it comes from bulls' asses.

Davidduke2000's picture

Trump won both the popular vote and the electoral college, but hillary's machine stole over 3 million votes which made the difference in the popular vote.